Wrapped in Flames: The Great American War and Beyond

Chapter 131: Trans-Atlantic Troubles
Chapter 131: Trans-Atlantic Troubles

“Appointed to the position of Commander in Chief of the forces in Ireland in July of 1865, General Hugh Rose, Baron Strathnairn, was seen as more than capable of handling any trouble. He had led troops admirably in the Crimea participating at Alma and Inkerman, amongst other notable battles with distinction, and then gone immediately to India to deal with the Mutiny. His extremely admirable services there eventually earned the praise of London and placed him squarely on track for an important regional command. The absence of serious discord in Ireland during the North American War had lulled many in London into a sense of complacency over the Irish question, but Strathnairn himself was less sanguine.

Though he did not think a general rising was imminent, he was worried about riots and discord with the return of so many men from North America…

While affairs in North America were unsettled enough that the Fenians felt confident their plans might elicit some good effect in Ireland, they were unsure of whether there could be enough to force Britain to divert more of its forces from Ireland. In 1867 the garrison had again climbed from its 1865 low of only four battalions of infantry and four of cavalry. Now there were 18 battalions of infantry and 7 of cavalry, making the garrison of Ireland much stronger on the eve of this crisis than it had been during the North American War. This would cause some grumbling in Fenian circles that ‘chances were missed’ when so many enthusiastic Irishmen had gone off to fight in North America.

However, while thousands had fought, died, and then immigrated abroad, many had returned home with their skills honed by the conflict, some even in direct confrontation with British forces. This worried Straithnairn who wrote “Lord Strathnairn has had the honor at different times to bring to the notice of the Govt. that the American-Irish Fenian Leaders, so many of whom are stated to be here now, are experienced & resolute soldiers, who have won their experience in a known to the Govt. that all the intercepted plans of operations of the Fenians, shewed [sic.] that their Leaders had acquired in the American War a dangerous knowledge of practical strategy. All these plans pointed as an indispensable piece in the commencement & guarantee of success to the capture of Athlone, the Magazine Fort at Dublin, & other excellent Military Positions.”

The presence of so many veterans of the conflict, supported by American born Irishmen travelling specifically to Ireland to help stir up a rising, caused him some concern. Would arresting or killing an American citizen on Irish soil constitute an international incident? Though habeas corpus had been suspended in Ireland in December of 1866, Strathnairn was cautious in its use for this purpose. Questions to London brought no easy answers, and it was encouraged to, if possible, detain and deport such men as necessary. Naturally, the broad use of such tactics was impossible, and in the sweeping arrests which characterized British crackdowns from December to March showed little finesse. American consuls complained ceaselessly to London, but very little effort was made to address the misuse of police power. This allowed thousands to slip through the net, and by the spring of 1867 roughly 2,000 American born Irish had secreted themselves around the country.

However, much to Straithnairn’s dismay, matters across the Channel would distract the government at exactly the wrong moment…” - The Emergency of 1867, Howard Senior, 1986

“Though Bismarck’s death had shadowed the issue of the 1865 meeting at Biarritz in conspiracy[1][2], it was clear that Napoleon anticipated no great concern from his neighbor when he accepted King William’s assent to purchase the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg for 5,000,000 guilders. William’s perennially bad finances, and his control over the Duchy as a personal estate, meant there was little the government in Antwerp could do to stop him, but they saw no great loss to the Dutch state. The two sides accepted the deal on the 23rd of March.

However, in neighboring Prussia, the new King-President Friederich and his advisors were completely alarmed. Chancellor Roon immediately told the King that “it is to Prussia’s great strategic disadvantage should Napoleon occupy Luxembourg City.” The consummate soldier realized immediately that the fortifications of Luxembourg provided at the very least, a redoubt from which French soldiers might launch assaults on the newly consolidated position of the North German Confederation. He strongly advised that the king not remove the Prussian garrison that had been in the city since 1848, while stating that a “show of force” might be necessary to deter French ambitions. Friedrich did not agree with a show of force, but he did think that simply stepping back from Luxembourg would set a disastrous precedent for Prussian power, and so declared that without compensation Prussia would not withdraw from Luxembourg City.

Napoleon was mildly shocked that it would provoke demands from ‘the losing power’ in the recent war. He was outraged that what he viewed as a transaction between monarchs was being objected to by the Prussian throne. Had they not through force of arms just overthrown the centuries old monarchs of noble German states only last year? The sympathetic notes from both Bavaria and Saxony pushed Napoleon in a more bullish direction.

Through de Lhuys, he directed that Prussia would be informed that France did not want war, they would under no circumstances accept the imposition of Prussian ‘blackmail’ on the dealings between two states. The Prussian government would drop their demands for compensation. That was Napoleon’s firmest offer, and one he expected to be the basis of a final arbitration. He was further shocked when Roon not only bluntly rejected the offer, but threatened to march a Prussian army into Luxembourg…

…matters were not helped by the hawkish response of the Saxon Chancellor, Friedrich von Beust, who still smarted from the flight of the Saxon government in 1866. Emerging as a leading voice for the still independent southern German states, he was bullish in demanding Prussia not be allowed to simply seize Luxembourg. That it was being purchased by France was beside the point to him, it promised another Prussian expansion. Munich and Vienna agreed, backing the French position. Franz Joseph though, quietly indicated to John of Saxony that he would “Much prefer peace than war over Luxembourg” but the implied threat of Austrian support for France was a powerful diplomatic feather in the French cap.

On April 8th, Friedrich declared that Prussia could not abandon a member of the Zollverein without adequate diplomatic consultation, and Roon would demand the Dutch government renege on the agreement between the King and Napoleon. This outraged Dutch opinion, save in the Liberal classes who felt that the King was potentially dragging the nation into war against its interests. William though, emboldened by both French instrangience and the support of the smaller German states, refused.

Matters over little Luxembourg seemed to be spiralling out of control…” - Foreign Policy of the Second French Empire, Pierre Martin, 1991

“The news from the Continent in April 1867 gave Palmerston pause. Though older and having less energy, his instinctual distrust of all things French, and especially Bonaparte, moved him once again into a flash of his older self. There was a whirl of activity in April and May of 1867 as he used his not inconsiderable influence to petition ministers and diplomats to find an adequate solution short of war. His energies were focused, almost to all else, on preventing both an expansion of French power at the expense of Prussia, and ensuring no war came to pass that year.

While he had hoped that the Mexican adventure would keep Napoleon tied down in Europe, the threat of a Franco-Austrian alliance against Prussia was one which might become intolerable to European relations, and worse, invite a general European conflict. True, in that time Napoleon did not pull forces from Mexico or Rome, a sure sign he might have been directly considering war, but Palmerston could not use that as a yardstick for any sudden conflagration on the Continent. The Army of the Rhine, he was informed, was unusual active in its mobilisation for summer drills, and Napoleon might use it as an excuse to march on Luxembourg to assert his ownership.

Lord Russell was in evidence at Whitehall, usually with the diplomats from the smaller German states, and the Russian ambassador. At Palmerston’s urging, Russell was attempting to tease out the Russians on whether they might support Austria. Russia’s ambassador, Ernst von Brunnow, was tight lipped with the British, mostly because his government, still in some disorder from the tsar’s assassination the year prior, had no firm instructions one way or the other. Had Palmerston known this he probably would not have begun formulating a military response so quickly.

Instead, he ordered a squadron assembled in the Channel, and a second division mobilized at Aldershot in case of the need for foreign service. Many in Whitehall, still basking in the glow of their victory in North America, were moved to more forceful uses of British power. If they could use that influence to prevent a war, so much the better. Palmerston reasoned that a show of force now might prevent the need for further force in the future[3]. These rapid orders throughout April and May would have unintended consequences, as so focused was he on the threat of war in Europe, he failed to consider matters closer to home…” - The Lord Palmerston, 2002

“To Straithairn’s immense frustration, two battalions were ordered out of Ireland to Aldershot to help form the division being assembled in case of foreign service. One from Dublin and another from Cork. Despite his protests that he needed soldiers in case of unrest, the pleas fell on deaf ears in Whitehall and the Horse Guards who only saw the potential for a European War, and a still insistent need to remind the world that Britain could be a Continental player if she so chose. And so, the regiments were transferred to England.

This could not have been sweeter news in Paris and New York. The information was sent across the border rapidly, with Thomas Kelly excitedly writing his fellows in North America “With war on the Continent now seeming imminent, the time to spark a general insurrection is swiftly coming upon us. Already two regiments leave for England, your plans will excite London to dispatch further forces abroad.” This, from the information at hand, seemed a reasonable conclusion, and the effort to organize and arm men for the coming attacks intensified. However, even as excited action took place, masses of informers inside the various organizations were reporting to Dublin Castle and London what was planned. Unfortunately, only Dublin Castle seemed to take the matter with the severity it deserved, and the actions in North America, it was felt, would be little more than a sideshow.

London was, of course, dealing with dangerously incomplete information…” - The Emergency of 1867, Howard Senior, 1986

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1] Though I generally save things outside North America for the "World in Review" chapters, some events warrant exception.

2] Not the last time Bismarck's being dead and leaving a lot of Machiavellian scheming undone with no official notes will become a major problem in Europe.

3] This will continue to be something of a theme of 'unintended consequences' down the line with British foreign policy thanks to the war. Expensive as it was, no one in London is currently arguing with the results.
 
So Britain is pulling all their eggs in one basket while a revolt is about to blow on their faces, draining away their attention from Europe and fully preventing them from acting, a action that will not only will they look lame by comparison to the other powers but also will suffer a prestige blow from seemingly doing nothing while everyone else was putting their own cards on the table.
 
So it seems the Luxembourg crisis has come at the perfect time for the Irish Rebels, while I doubt this will give them victory it will allow them to cause significantly more damage, with sadly a far harsher reprisal once Britain gets itself together.
 
Italy might be desiring Rome hard, and I suppose Venetia too since no Prussian victory in 1866 means the Austrians don't have to give it up, but I don't think they will back Prussia in the Luxembourg crisis. Prussia has lost its credibility by getting defeated, and Italy had a hard time fighting off Austria alone, so fighting both France and Austria? Florence (that was their capital until OTL 1870 if I remember correctly) will probably stick with neutrality, and only decisive Prussian victories would get them out of it.

Austrian and South German support will only embolden Napoléon III to stand firm, but if the British get involved, he will have pause, because British involvement means an escalation out of the bounds of Napoléon III's gamble, and because it puts the question of Italian participation back on the table, and that of Russia as well. There, I suppose that if London is in the dark about Russian positioning, so must be Paris and Vienna. And even the rumor of the British reaching out to St Petersburg would be enough to rise alarms.
Napoléon III was the guy would have made the "reasonable" bet of a short and victorious war against Prussia and North Germany, based on Austrian and South German support, plus the disastrous Prussian performance the year before, but into his later years, he was also not the kind of person willing to risk a war setting the whole continent alight over Luxembourg (honnestly, in his earlier years, he was not that kind of guy either - he backed down on his promises to Piedmont-Sardinia and made peace with Austria when Prussia threatened intervention in 1859 for example). More likely, he'd try his luck in a new congress to adjudicate the question, a congress where, between South German, Austrian and likely Scandinavian backing (as I'm sensing there is more appetite for a little payback over 1864 since the Denmark-Sweden bond is stronger ITTL), he has a strong chance to carry the day.
 
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So Britain is pulling all their eggs in one basket while a revolt is about to blow on their faces, draining away their attention from Europe and fully preventing them from acting, a action that will not only will they look lame by comparison to the other powers but also will suffer a prestige blow from seemingly doing nothing while everyone else was putting their own cards on the table.

Historically London, as a neutral nation, did offer to mediate. That option (backed up by a threat of intervention on an unspecified side here) is one most of the powers will have to consider. Since Austria isn't gung ho for war, and with Russia perhaps neutral, then the mediation method might still be backed up. However, Napoleon III is not going to be backing down this time.

Why do I have a feeling that the Palmerston government is about to fall once this Emergency of 1867 is over and done with?

Well that does depend on how bad the emergency gets...

So it seems the Luxembourg crisis has come at the perfect time for the Irish Rebels, while I doubt this will give them victory it will allow them to cause significantly more damage, with sadly a far harsher reprisal once Britain gets itself together.

Of that you can rest assured. Basically everyone has written off the Fenians after there wasn't an uprising in March, and the Canadians themselves saw the fizzle in Aroostook as an indicator that the Fenians are all bluster and no action. Not all of them think that, but the people who make the big decisions are disinclined to spend the money to call out tens of thousands of men if there's going to be no emergency.
 
Italy might be desiring Rome hard, and I suppose Venetia too since no Prussian victory in 1866 means the Austrians don't have to give it up, but I don't think they will back Prussia in the Luxembourg crisis. Prussia has lost its credibility by getting defeated, and Italy had a hard time fighting off Austria alone, so fighting both France and Austria? Florence (that was their capital until OTL 1870 if I remember correctly) will probably stick with neutrality, and only decisive Prussian victories would get them out of it.

Italy, almost as much as the United States, feels quite betrayed by the powers of Europe as a whole. They were effectively left to hang in the wind when Prussia sued for peace and Austria told them to go pound sand. So attacking Rome with the threat of an angry France and Austria breathing down their necks is something of a no-go.

This means that Austria still has Venetia (and her pre-1866 borders and political establishment) and that there's no urgency in Vienna to get the whole dual monarchy going. Austria feels vindicated after losing in 1859, even though it was largely a lucky shot that decapitated the Prussian state which puts them in such a good position. While financially it wasn't terrible, Austria is still not great economically, but having Venetia offsets that a bit.

Austrian and South German support will only embolden Napoléon III to stand firm, but if the British get involved, he will have pause, because British involvement means an escalation out of the bounds of Napoléon III's gamble, and because it puts the question of Italian participation back on the table, and that of Russia as well. There, I suppose that if London is in the dark about Russian positioning, so must be Paris and Vienna. And even the rumor of the British reaching out to St Petersburg would be enough to rise alarms.
Napoléon III was the guy would have made the "reasonable" bet of a short and victorious war against Prussia and North Germany, based on Austrian and South German support, plus the disastrous Prussian performance the year before, but into his later years, he was also not the kind of person willing to risk a war setting the whole continent alight over Luxembourg (honnestly, in his earlier years, he was not that kind of guy either - he backed down on his promises to Piedmont-Sardinia and made peace with Austria when Prussia threatened intervention in 1859 for example). More likely, he'd try his luck in a new congress to adjudicate the question, a congress where, between South German, Austrian and likely Scandinavian backing (as I'm sensing there is more appetite for a little payback over 1864 since the Denmark-Sweden bond is stronger ITTL), he has a strong chance to carry the day.

Generally what's happening here. The new King-President of the North German Confederation really has to prove himself to the world first, and even Russia is a bit leery of backing them over Luxembourg. However, with no firm stance on the matter, and Britain sort of sitting menacingly on the sidelines, everyone is going to think twice about going to war here.

Napoleon III though, is mostly basking in French diplomatic coup de main from Mexico (though the liberal opponents of the Empire still say its a waste of lives and money) and the recognition of the Confederacy which makes the reactionaries of Europe happy. So he doesn't need a war to get some legitimacy at home, but he won't shirk away from one either. He believes that at Biarritz in 1865 Bismarck essentially promised him some very good deals, and he means to collect eventually. With anyone who could naysay what Bismarck promised dead, well, that leaves lots of room for interpretation on the matter.

You are right that Denmark and Sweden-Norway would love a little payback over 1864, though what that might entail is an open question.
 
I imagine they'll be some form of compromise, probably heavily in Frances favour because right now no one wants a big war in Europe and frankly the state that's in the best starting position right now is France, with the ironic lack of political instability back home and not being in the middle of restructuring their country. And with the Fenians about to kick off Britain is going to be pretty distracted back home which give free reign in Europe to an extent.
 
Napoleon III though, is mostly basking in French diplomatic coup de main from Mexico (though the liberal opponents of the Empire still say its a waste of lives and money) and the recognition of the Confederacy which makes the reactionaries of Europe happy. So he doesn't need a war to get some legitimacy at home, but he won't shirk away from one either. He believes that at Biarritz in 1865 Bismarck essentially promised him some very good deals, and he means to collect eventually. With anyone who could naysay what Bismarck promised dead, well, that leaves lots of room for interpretation on the matter.
That was a time his health was consistently deteriorating and he was focused on making sure his son would succeed him, hence his political overtures, and his OTL "skirting" away from "risky" wars. Not being humiliated by the loss in Mexico certainly helps, but that doesn't fundamentally alters the equation. Mexico, for important it was in the Second Empire's historiography, was a relatively limited one (granted, the 40k or so soldiers made up to 15-20% of the standing army, but besides the more important logistical weight of the operation, I believe that with conscription factored in, that remained sustainable insofar as we consider French standing in Europe proper), was not a critical event in the political history as were the political reforms of the 1860s. Rather, I'm thinking Napoléon III's position would be weakened, not because of Mexico, but because of the Confederacy.

As far as I recall, there was a much real rift in the French society over whom to support in the American civil war. The liberal opposition, from orleanists (Philip, Count of Paris, served in the Union army, right?) to liberal bonapartists to republicans, were pro Union as a rule, and these were the factions whose power and influence was only going stronger in the lead up to the elections of 1869. That went nowhere as far as the Dreyfus affairs thirty years later, and even with the Confederacy becoming independent, it won't go as far, but it has a potential to undermine domestic support for Napoléon III's foreign policies (in the way of providing something concrete and clear cut enough of an example to rally against - EDIT : like his Italian policies did with the clericals or the free trade treaty of 1860 with the business establishment...). That also means he would be very much factoring in domestic concerns into his foreign policy calculations, and any British involvement, only if because of the impact it would have on French trade and economy, would shamble any prior calculus; 1866-1867 was a period of financial strain, exemplified by the collapse of the Pereire Brothers' Credit Mobilier, so Napoléon III has not quite the luxury to tell London to mind its business.

Then, he was willing to stomach foreign policy setbacks in either OTL Mexico or OTL Luxemburg crisis, and nearly did veto the declaration of war in 1870, so it stands to reason that if he smelled trouble and danger, he'd rather go the "congress route" to solve the question (which does not preclude a war scare of course).
 
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Not as many notable combat commands, with the Battle of Elizabethtown his most notable TTL, otherwise he was a competent but unremarkable commander. He was picked up for political reasons in Richmond, but he's managed to entrench himself in the political vipers nest there. There are those who will end up disliking him because he was in Davis's cabinet, but that's just the sheer petty politics of the Davis administration being followed through to their logical conclusion!

You've highlighted his fine attributes (and his one other flaw besides supporting the Confederacy) here. He's a man who, unlike almost anyone else in 1867, can make a claim to have a national platform to stand on with real national recognition and not just a state machine behind him. Whether he can become president and make things stick is a real open question. The 6 year single term limit makes building legacy programs a real problem.

The watchword for the Confederacy though we must remember is, the higher it rises, the harder it falls...
As bigger fish in a smaller pond, maybe. Dick Taylor is one who I think has merit in going farther in this Confederacy, and there's plenty of men who couldn't take their careers up further thanks to Reconstruction who would probably be willing to try climbing higher. Taylor seems like a man who could go far, if not as president than effectively as an eternal minister without portfolio for his backroom dealing. Didn't realize he was close to Barlow, who is effectively McClellan's 'fixer' in Washington, which means he does all the political wheeling and dealing McClellan finds beneath him. That might make him a very, very interesting character as the ambassador to Washington indeed!

If he meets Henry Adams this time, well, he's going to alter his trajectory in a slightly different way!

"a competent but unremarkable commander."

It is interesting to put it this way. Breckinridge's true measure as a commander was, I think, somewhere between this gloss and the "New Stonewall" accolades he was collecting from Southern newspapers after New Market and Second Kernstown. He was one of the best politicians that tried their hand at military command, but not the best - certainly, not on the level of Richard Taylor. New Market was a badly needed strategic restoration and morale boost at just the right moment, but it wasn't exactly marked by tactical brilliance; rather, just capable handling of men and a lot of aggression, against a Union commander (Sigel) who had little of either. Elizabethtown sounds like closer to Breckinridge's (temporary) Baton Rouge triumph. Maybe what we could say if nothing else is that Breckinridge checked off a military service box that will be a notable advantage for this coming generation of Southern politics; his real advantage is going to be his demonstrated political chops and extensive relationships with the Confederacy's political class.

But maybe something more, too. Kentucky is in a fragile state, yes? It's still got significant Unionist sentiment, and recovering from its share of wartime depredations. Having a Kentuckian (esp. of Breck's stature!) in the Confederate White House might be seen by many as a highly desirable tonic for these dangers.

That aside, the idea of Richard Taylor jumping into politics is an intriguing one. I don't know if he is in a position yet to take the presidency, but he could become a very potent force before long.
 
(Philip, Count of Paris, served in the Union army, right?)

Not just him, but also Prince Robert d'Orléans, Duke of Chartres. In the ranks, wags took to calling them "Captain Parry" and "Captain Chatters." But yes, you're right, there was a lot of sympathy for the Union cause in liberal French society.

In our history, Napoleon III dies in 1873. A little hard to say how much defeat and exile accelerated his end, but it's hard to think he would last all that much longer; and as you say, he was aware of that. Napoleon IV turns 18 in 1874; it would certainly improve the dynasty's prospects for survival if he has reached his majority when his father dies.

Then, he was will to stomach foreign policy setbacks in either OTL Mexico or OTL Luxemburg crisis, and nearly did veto the declaration of war in 1870, so it stands to reason that if he smelled trouble and danger, he'd rather go the "congress route" to solve the question

I tend to agree; but of course, every time he goes the "congress route," he's taking a risk - and ceding a little more of his power.
 
I imagine they'll be some form of compromise, probably heavily in Frances favour because right now no one wants a big war in Europe and frankly the state that's in the best starting position right now is France, with the ironic lack of political instability back home and not being in the middle of restructuring their country. And with the Fenians about to kick off Britain is going to be pretty distracted back home which give free reign in Europe to an extent.

While that is ideal from a French perspective, there's no guarantee all of Prussia feels that way. They are smarting from a rather embarrassing defeat, which true they got to form 90% of the North German Confederation as OTL, but there's plenty who think they need to get a true military victory or else they'll be forever a lesser power compared to Austria. Whether the new King-President agrees is another point.

However, no one really wants war, but they certainly want to act like they want war!
 
That was a time his health was consistently deteriorating and he was focused on making sure his son would succeed him, hence his political overtures, and his OTL "skirting" away from "risky" wars. Not being humiliated by the loss in Mexico certainly helps, but that doesn't fundamentally alters the equation. Mexico, for important it was in the Second Empire's historiography, was a relatively limited one (granted, the 40k or so soldiers made up to 15-20% of the standing army, but besides the more important logistical weight of the operation, I believe that with conscription factored in, that remained sustainable insofar as we consider French standing in Europe proper), was not a critical event in the political history as were the political reforms of the 1860s. Rather, I'm thinking Napoléon III's position would be weakened, not because of Mexico, but because of the Confederacy.

As far as I recall, there was a much real rift in the French society over whom to support in the American civil war. The liberal opposition, from orleanists (Philip, Count of Paris, served in the Union army, right?) to liberal bonapartists to republicans, were pro Union as a rule, and these were the factions whose power and influence was only going stronger in the lead up to the elections of 1869. That went nowhere as far as the Dreyfus affairs thirty years later, and even with the Confederacy becoming independent, it won't go as far, but it has a potential to undermine domestic support for Napoléon III's foreign policies (in the way of providing something concrete and clear cut enough of an example to rally against - EDIT : like his Italian policies did with the clericals or the free trade treaty of 1860 with the business establishment...). That also means he would be very much factoring in domestic concerns into his foreign policy calculations, and any British involvement, only if because of the impact it would have on French trade and economy, would shamble any prior calculus; 1866-1867 was a period of financial strain, exemplified by the collapse of the Pereire Brothers' Credit Mobilier, so Napoléon III has not quite the luxury to tell London to mind its business.

Very good points I think. I knew that the free trade policies of 1860 were unpopular because they essentially undercut a lot of French industry in favor of the British. One of the reasons he did decide to intervene in 1865 here was because he was concerned that the sudden collapse of cotton exports, on which the French garment industry did thrive like Britain's would cause an economic downturn which he could ill afford, and so lead the charge for recognition of the Confederacy. I can see how the liberal politicians in French society would definitely latch on to that as yet another example of the Emperor doing something bad, but it might only be effective from the moral stand point. That is, if the business elites are still getting cheap cotton to run the factories and there's no cotton hunger like the OTL experience of 1862-65, then I think that as a point to attack the Emperor and his policies it might be forgiven as a fait accompli which involved neither an French money spent or lives lost, unlike in Mexico.

So while this will definitely be yet another black mark against him in Liberal circles, it might be harder to mobilize support against. Luxembourg too might prevent a bit of a tough nut for Liberals to rally support for if it doesn't lead to war and another bloodless expansion of French prestige at marginal cost. However, by the same calculus, I think you're correct that Napoleon would not risk war unless he was forced to. The risks are larger than the potential reward, as he realized in 1867.

Then, he was willing to stomach foreign policy setbacks in either OTL Mexico or OTL Luxemburg crisis, and nearly did veto the declaration of war in 1870, so it stands to reason that if he smelled trouble and danger, he'd rather go the "congress route" to solve the question (which does not preclude a war scare of course).

I've been jumping into the often mysterious world of Napoleon III and I do think this is likely. Post-1859 he did seem a lot less willing to risk danger, and only seems to have gone to war in 1870 because he convinced himself that he was at the head of a budding anti-Prussian alliance, or at least allowed himself to be convinced that this was the case. But he was not above sabre rattling to get his way either.

Not just him, but also Prince Robert d'Orléans, Duke of Chartres. In the ranks, wags took to calling them "Captain Parry" and "Captain Chatters." But yes, you're right, there was a lot of sympathy for the Union cause in liberal French society.

Even Jerome Bonaparte was sympathetic to the Union cause, having a soft spot for the United States. IIRC there was a sense that being hostile to Napoleon's project in North America mapped pretty neatly onto the political lines of France in the 1860s, as supporters of the Empire were generally supportive until 1866 and the enemies were always hostile. But an unquestionable American loss in both wars in WiF is going to dampen some of that liberal enthusiasm in the salons of Paris, and not to mention knock the republican ideal around.

In our history, Napoleon III dies in 1873. A little hard to say how much defeat and exile accelerated his end, but it's hard to think he would last all that much longer; and as you say, he was aware of that. Napoleon IV turns 18 in 1874; it would certainly improve the dynasty's prospects for survival if he has reached his majority when his father dies.

Well it was surgical complications that killed him when it became unavoidable. So I'm not overly sure how much longer he'd actually live past 1873 with his declining health. However, Empress Eugenie had a much longer life ahead of her than the emperor did. The potential downsides to that fact are something I've often pondered because she was an... interesting woman to say the least.

I tend to agree; but of course, every time he goes the "congress route," he's taking a risk - and ceding a little more of his power.

This is something I've been pondering on. In a world where the Empire survives, I can see Napoleon IV (or at least his mother) trying to turn back the clock on reforms and putting an end, more or less, to the liberal empire. How plausible that is I'm still not 100% certain.
 
Well it was surgical complications that killed him when it became unavoidable. So I'm not overly sure how much longer he'd actually live past 1873 with his declining health. However, Empress Eugenie had a much longer life ahead of her than the emperor did. The potential downsides to that fact are something I've often pondered because she was an... interesting woman to say the least.
Not much, perhaps enough depending on how you see things.
Ever since his time as a prisonner at Ham under Louis Philippe, his health was 'fluctuating', and from 1865 onwards, it was in constant decline, so the operation might have bought him a few years. However, it's my understanding he was planning on abdicating on the Prince Impérial eighteenth birthday, if he lived long enough.

Had he undergone the surgery earlier, who knows? One key event you might change, or not, is the outcome of the surgery on Marshal Adolphe Niel. Niel was operated for bladder stones, the same issue afflicting Napoléon III, and that he did not survive the operation certainly did not help make the Emperor's mind about a similar operation on himself.

This is something I've been pondering on. In a world where the Empire survives, I can see Napoleon IV (or at least his mother) trying to turn back the clock on reforms and putting an end, more or less, to the liberal empire. How plausible that is I'm still not 100% certain.
His mother, sure. However, she would probably have had her margin of maneuver limited, her hands tied so to speak, by the constitutional reforms of 1870. But that requires a regency, one that would be limited in time if we keep OTL schedule.

I'm not so sure about Napoléon IV though. With the Empire overthrown, it would have been easy for him to start from scratch, and model it to his own view, perhaps influenced by his mother to an extent (perhaps a strong one).
But not having the empire falling and ensuring the continuity of its institutions is a significant alteration. Not to mention that TTL Napoléon IV would not have to endure the traumatism of his father being overthrown and the exile that followed.

That said, the constitution of 1870 did leave a margin of maneuver. Emile Ollivier's tenure was very much resting on Napoléon III's interpretation. Another monarch might be more assertive than the old, sick emperor. For one, the language of it, if I remember right, was that the minister were responsible both to the emperor and the parliament, but that the 'both' was subject to interpretation. Theoretically, a cabinet relying exclusively on the Emperor's confidence could stand, like Bismarck's in Prussia. Actually, that's pretty much how Cousin-Montauban's cabinet worked in August-September of 1870, appointed by Eugénie in her capacity as Regent, without any regard of the Corps Législatif's opinion on the matter.

I'm tempted to think, taking into account the few we know about the Prince Impérial's ideas, that he would have tended towards Social Catholicism, ie paternalist conservatism style, not unlike de Gaulle 80 years after him, as in KingSweden24's Cinco de Mayo TL. But then, you'd have to consider how the question "what he wants vs what he can" will be resolved, or how the answer will evolve depending on the socio-political landscape, something I'm exploring in my mini TL "After 1870".
 
That is, if the business elites are still getting cheap cotton to run the factories and there's no cotton hunger like the OTL experience of 1862-65, then I think that as a point to attack the Emperor and his policies it might be forgiven as a fait accompli which involved neither an French money spent or lives lost, unlike in Mexico.

So while this will definitely be yet another black mark against him in Liberal circles, it might be harder to mobilize support against.
Put otherwise, I would expect the TTL Ollivier cabinet - or any cabinet issued from the ranks of the liberal opposition post 1869 - to be very much pro Union, and less friendly to Confederate interests. Such a cabinet would have to compose with the business interests of the merchant and industrialist class, but they would not be supine to it either. They would be less tolerant of any Confederate "encroachment" on French sphere of influence in Latin America for example.
 
Not much, perhaps enough depending on how you see things.
Ever since his time as a prisonner at Ham under Louis Philippe, his health was 'fluctuating', and from 1865 onwards, it was in constant decline, so the operation might have bought him a few years. However, it's my understanding he was planning on abdicating on the Prince Impérial eighteenth birthday, if he lived long enough.

Had he undergone the surgery earlier, who knows? One key event you might change, or not, is the outcome of the surgery on Marshal Adolphe Niel. Niel was operated for bladder stones, the same issue afflicting Napoléon III, and that he did not survive the operation certainly did not help make the Emperor's mind about a similar operation on himself.

Hmm didn't realize he had considered abdicating. Then again, his health was getting so bad by 1866 that he was certainly having a rough go of it, living in constantly warmed chambers and indulging in the springs. However, I also understand it that he was - for some reason - distrustful of doctors after his imprisonment. That seems to have made him put off any real treatment that might have saved his life until it was too late either way.

My own understanding was that the surgery itself was risky, with a too decent chance of killing him anyways.

His mother, sure. However, she would probably have had her margin of maneuver limited, her hands tied so to speak, by the constitutional reforms of 1870. But that requires a regency, one that would be limited in time if we keep OTL schedule.

I'm not so sure about Napoléon IV though. With the Empire overthrown, it would have been easy for him to start from scratch, and model it to his own view, perhaps influenced by his mother to an extent (perhaps a strong one).
But not having the empire falling and ensuring the continuity of its institutions is a significant alteration. Not to mention that TTL Napoléon IV would not have to endure the traumatism of his father being overthrown and the exile that followed.

That said, the constitution of 1870 did leave a margin of maneuver. Emile Ollivier's tenure was very much resting on Napoléon III's interpretation. Another monarch might be more assertive than the old, sick emperor. For one, the language of it, if I remember right, was that the minister were responsible both to the emperor and the parliament, but that the 'both' was subject to interpretation. Theoretically, a cabinet relying exclusively on the Emperor's confidence could stand, like Bismarck's in Prussia. Actually, that's pretty much how Cousin-Montauban's cabinet worked in August-September of 1870, appointed by Eugénie in her capacity as Regent, without any regard of the Corps Législatif's opinion on the matter.

While Eugenie would have her hands, somewhat, tied, she was rather forceful in her opinions. Depending on when Napoleon dies, her small time as regent could allow her to shape that narrow issue of the constitution to her liking, putting ultra-Bonapartists in power against the will of the Corps Legislatif. How well she might manage that is an open question.

Much does depend on Napoleon IV and how he matures into the empire. From my own - I will say limited - understanding is that since his exile in 1871 he didn't have a great grasp on the levers of power and the political workings of France outside the Bonapartist circles, but with a few years to grow, who knows? His mother would definitely have a fierce grip on him at first, but he did show a very adventurist streak, begging to go fight in the Zulu War is not something one does if they aren't adventurous. That leaves room for him to grow and interpret the way an emperor should act as he sees fit.

I'm tempted to think, taking into account the few we know about the Prince Impérial's ideas, that he would have tended towards Social Catholicism, ie paternalist conservatism style, not unlike de Gaulle 80 years after him, as in KingSweden24's Cinco de Mayo TL. But then, you'd have to consider how the question "what he wants vs what he can" will be resolved, or how the answer will evolve depending on the socio-political landscape, something I'm exploring in my mini TL "After 1870".

Based on the ideas he was brought up, that is indeed an idea. I do like how it is squared in that sense. I definitely have a lot to think about there. I already have some ideas on how the empire will form and turn from 1870 onwards.

Put otherwise, I would expect the TTL Ollivier cabinet - or any cabinet issued from the ranks of the liberal opposition post 1869 - to be very much pro Union, and less friendly to Confederate interests. Such a cabinet would have to compose with the business interests of the merchant and industrialist class, but they would not be supine to it either. They would be less tolerant of any Confederate "encroachment" on French sphere of influence in Latin America for example.

It would make for an interesting scenario in a post-1870 world where a still running Empire is trying to enact policies hostile to the Confederacy while being pro-United States. That said, they'd certainly have to square the circle of not antagonising the US with their policies in North America while alienating the United States. Which creates a very interesting political conundrum!
 
so reaction to the last couple of chapters

I wonder how Lincoln would feel about people invoking him to fight against a republican rags to riches lawyer.probably disappointed and would make some sort of funny analogy about the situation. something about a dead husband's will perhaps?

but it does hint at Lincoln becoming a sort of "Northern lost cause "figure with peopleadmiring him but conflicted over what he means to the point his personal beliefs become obscured. heck I can even see future Confederate and even British leaders taking his image and using it for populist labor reasons.much to the norths confusion.

max was genuinely a kind good man.but its hard for a good man to be an emperor.and especially a occupying foreign emperor.


interesting to see an example of 19th century racial thinking.on one hand the officers general Kerany[probably misspelled sorry]is complaining about would be mostly white and the soldiers he's praising mezitos but he does call the officer halfbreeds because in that time peroid nationally and race were the same thing.Mexicans literally cannot be white in his viewpoint.

so now it seems it's the brits turn to deal with a seccesionist rebellion while fighting a neighboring power .

of course the Irish are far more justified .
interesting to how see how it goes
hopefully they figure out the guerilla warfare trick .probably not but it'd be cool
 
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