Wrapped in Flames: The Great American War and Beyond

Chapter 65: Rivers Run Red
Chapter 65: Rivers Run Red

“The word given, the horsemen start in a body, loading and firing on horseback, and leaving the dead animals to be identified after the run is over. The kind of horse used is called a "buffalo runner," and is very valuable. A good one will cost from 50 to 70 pounds sterling. The sagacity of the animal is chiefly shewn in bringing his rider alongside the retreating buffalo, and in avoiding the numerous pitfalls abounding on the prairie. The most treacherous of the latter are the badger holes. Considering the bold nature of the sport, remarkably few accidents occur. The hunters enter the herd with their mouths full of bullets. A handful of gunpowder is let fall from their "powder horns," a bullet is dropped from the mouth into the muzzle, a tap with the butt end of the firelock on the saddle causes the salivated bullet to adhere to the powder during the second necessary to depress the barrel, when the discharge is instantly effected without bringing the gun to the shoulder.” - Red River, Joseph J. Hargrave, Montreal, 1871

“The territory known as Rupert’s Land, stretching from the base of the Rocky Mountains in the West to the shores of Rainy Lake and the westernmost extent of Canada West was first incorporated under the control of the Hudson’s Bay Company in 1670 by King Charles II to his Cousin Prince Rupert of the Rhine after which the territory was named. It was decreed that the “sole Trade and Commerce of all those Seas, Streights, Bays, Rivers, Lakes, Creeks, and Sounds, in whatsoever Latitude they shall be, that lie within the entrance of the Streights commonly called Hudson's Streights, together with all the Lands, Countries and Territories, upon the Coasts and Confines of the Seas, Streights, Bays, Lakes, Rivers, Creeks and Sounds, aforesaid, which are not now actually possessed by any of our Subjects, or by the Subjects of any other Christian Prince or State” and “that the said Land be from henceforth reckoned and reputed as one of our Plantations or Colonies in America, called Rupert's Land.

Under the Company charter the lands were exploited for centuries for their rich furs, with a tenuous route existing to the remainder of British colonies through the seas at York Factory on the Hudson Bay and then overland past the Lake of the Woods along the shores of Lake Superior. For two centuries the Company would provide charter to European traders working for the company at a series of expanding factories and forts across the interior. These brave travellers were often along in the wilds of the continental interior for years or even decades at a time, which led to a certain amount of intermarriage between the Europeans and the Aboriginal peoples of the prairies, the most notable example of these, being the Métis people…” - From Selkirk to Hesperia: The History of the Red River Settlement, Samuel J. Sullivan, Wolseley, 1992


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Rupert's Land and British territories in North America circa 1862

“The Métis Nation has its foundations in the European fur trade of the late 1600s, with the Métis emerging as a distinct group within the prairies in the 1700s by tradition. These at first were largely intermarriages between Frenchmen and the women of Aboriginal peoples such as the Ojibwe, Creeks, or Saulteaux. The unions were fruitful for both parties as the Europeans brought trade, firearms, and access to the wider world in return for furs, pemmican and shelter. With this came the greater understanding of the Aboriginal languages and peoples for the Hudson’s Bay Company, though the Company did not always trust them…

...the English speaking Métis were a minority until much later in the times of the fur trade, and it was not until larger groups of Anglo-Scotch settlers began to appear around the Upper Red River Valley in the 1800s…” - The Northwest Is Our Mother: The Métis Nation, Jean Tache, Fort Garry Press, 2011

“The Red River Colony, or the Selkirk Colony, had been founded in 1811 under the guidance of Lord Selkirk, that wild and fiery leader of the Hudson’s Bay Company. He had initially intended it as a way to provide for the poor and dispossessed in his native Scotland, but mismanagement and a lack of preparation meant that the early settlers faced an uphill fight… The early settlement of the Red River region was marked by a long series of crises and ecological disasters and within the first decade of settling the region it had already suffered warfare, epidemics, prairie fires and a major flood…

By the 1820s, with the end of the Pemmican War and the forced merger of the Northwest Company with the Hudson’s Bay Company the colony began to rise to prominence. Stable crop yields of wheat began to flourish and by 1830 there were over 1,000 settlers… at this time the site became a natural meeting ground for the Métis people. The first annual buffalo hunts began at the Red River settlement in 1820, setting a tradition which would continue for over half a century…” - From Selkirk to Hesperia: The History of the Red River Settlement, Samuel J. Sullivan, Wolseley, 1992

“By the 1840s the Métis nation was becoming increasingly fed up with Company rule. For centuries there had been no centralized law and order, with courts only organized on an ad hoc basis. However, the desire of the Company to control the fur trade and all economic activity within the Red River Colony and its factories and forts within Rupert’s Land, let the company to attempt to apply an increasingly heavy hand. They would even call for reinforcements form the British Army in 1846 with three companies of the 6th Regiment of Foot staying at the fort before departing 1848.

Their departure though allowed the Métis to begin expressing their discontent with the Company monopoly. Smuggling became endemic, and the company chose to crack down…

...in 1849 Pierre-Guillaume Sayer and three other Métis in the Red River Colony were arrested by company men brought to trial in May at the General Quarterly Court of Assiniboia. They had been caught with furs not checked with Company clerks and were so brought up on charges of violating the Hudson's Bay Company's charter by illegally trafficking furs.

The arrest caused outrage, a prominent hunter and speaker among them, Jean-Louis Riel, stood and announced the arrest and gathered a crowd and the bells were rung in St. Joseph and hundreds of Métis crossed the water to surround the courthouse. They placed Riel at their head, and he led them in demanding a fair trial. Soon four hundred armed Métis surrounded the court, and the prosecutors had to physically push their way inside. The presence of a few hundred armed members of the nation certainly intimidated the judge and jury and after a brief trial, the court found Sayer guilty, but came back with a recommendation of mercy and Sayer was free to go. He came out carried on Riel’s shoulders, and cries of "le commerce est libre" greeted them. Riel was celebrated as a hero for standing up to the Company. To the HBC’s dismay, the outcome was that they would have to meet the free traders on equal terms instead of with threats of legal action. It cannot be doubted that watching his father in the crowd that day, Riel’s son was inspired…

By 1856 the Colony was changing. The Red River settlement had grown to 6,523 people…

These newcomers were different. Largely from Protestant Canada West, these settlers were predominantly interested in absorbing the Red River, and all of Rupert’s Land into Canada…” - The Northwest Is Our Mother: The Métis Nation, Jean Tache, Fort Garry Press, 2011


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Jean-Louis Riel

“By 1861, the population of the Red River Colony had grown to 10,000, approximately half of them being of French/Métis descent. The newcomers though were largely British descended Protestants, and they had a very firm ‘Canadian attitude’ which meant they owed their allegiance to cities like Montreal and Toronto rather than to the Colony as a whole. The two most prominent men were Henry McKenney and his half-brother John Schultz[1] had come to the colony and soon had formed a "Canadian Party" which partnered with William Coldwell and William Buckingham who established the first newspaper of the settlement, the Nor'Wester.

It was the existence of this newspaper, circulated not only in the colony at Red River but in Canada as well, that ensured the influence of the Canadian Party on subsequent events in the Colony. It took it’s stance from George Brown’s Toronto Globe. "The North-West must and shall be ours," he vigorously proclaimed. It is no surprise then that the Nor'Wester also urged annexation to Canada and that it ran frequent excerpts from the pages of the Globe dealing with the future of Rupert's Land. The Nor'Wester was really nothing more than an eager offshoot of George Brown's paper. What is interesting to note is that both Coldwell and Buckingham had been employees of the Globe before they moved West.

Contrasting this was a smaller, but just as vocal, “American Party” led by the German-American George Emmerling set up a hotel in the colony, and his establishment became the rallying point for this group. Linked by the waterways and cart roads to St. Paul, this group was intimately entangled with the Minnesota merchants.

Both groups hated the charter of the Hudson’s Bay Company with a rabid passion and found any excuse to agitate against it. This was about the only issue which united them. The “American Party” called for the swift annexation of the territory into the United States. The “Canadian Party” demanded that the settlers be given more self rule as a part of Canada, or that the Red River become a Crown Colony. It was the increasingly strident demands of these groups which, ironically, pushed the third faction, the Métis, into supporting the company.

The fur trade was part of their life blood, and the company made no efforts to interfere with the annual buffalo hunt. The Métis though, were legally, by both the American and Canadian definition, squatters. They feared that any change in government would dispossess them of their land and drive them to the periphery. Any change from the easy status quo was a threat to their way of life and so they, against all expectations, began to back company rule.

The three groups faced off against one another, and matters would come to a head far sooner, and later, than many anticipated.

Into this mix was thrown the new governor of Red River and Assiniboia, the Scottish born William Mactavish. Having joined the Company in 1833, he had worked tirelessly to uphold its business values, and swiftly impressed his bosses. He was rewarded constantly with promotions and in 1858 was promoted to the lead the area. A thoroughly trained and efficient business administrator. The qualities of “mental calibre,” “energy,” and “determination” as well as “executive ability” were all observed in the well mannered Scotsman. Tall, sandy-haired, he was known for having a well modulated voice and manner which served him well in many negotiations. He managed to ride a smooth transition over the fractious parties in the Colony, and smoothed ruffled feathers, and courted the Métis. However, he would later admit that he would far rather have “served as a stoker in hell” than run the Colony… he faced flood in 1860, and famine in 1862...

When the American Civil War had broken out, as the only newspaper, the Nor’Wester had initially been pro-Union. But, as with most newspapers in British North America, when word of the Trent affair had trickled overland it had roundly denounced the Union actions. John Schultz was vocal in his desire to form a Volunteer company to defend the frontier, and indeed he did manage to raise a single company of 100 men who vowed to defend their homes.

There was anxiety amongst the whole settled population as the only real British presence, a detachment of the Royal Canadian Rifles under the command of Major George Seaton, had marched overland back to Canada West in October 1861. Originally sent in 1857 as a response to the border crisis in Oregon and the march of an American column to Pembina[2]. Arriving there Seaton correctly deduced that his men were intended to enforce the company law. Instead he barracked them at the fort and allowed them to treat the whole event like an extended vacation, considering his mandate to be the defence of the frontier if necessary, and to support the governor in enforcing law and order and nothing more.

Once they had left Mactavish was very disappointed to see them go. However, it was far too late to get them back, and they were ultimately folded into the unsuccessful defence of the western portion of Canada West in spring 1862. Mactavish then began casting about for men to help defend the colony. Though he hated working with the Canadian Party, they were most eager to express their willingness, and by the spring of 1862 he had roughly 300 men armed and stationed at Upper and Lower Fort Garry. As a precaution he had ordered the two steamboats on the Red River, both owned by the Company, the US built Anson Northrup and the newly built International brought upriver as a potential riverborne defence.

Thankfully the remoteness of the ‘British’ settlement there, a lack of American resources in the West, and the outbreak of the Dakota War, meant that they were left alone for the first year of the war…” - From Selkirk to Hesperia: The History of the Red River Settlement, Samuel J. Sullivan, Wolseley, 1992


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William Mactavish

“...the plans for the Red River Expedition, far from being a brainchild of the cautious Buell, can be said to have emerged in the hotels and offices of St. Paul. That there was some small political and strategic advantage in an expedition northwards cannot be denied, but it is also undeniable that there was vocal support from St. Paul merchants for the outright annexation of that territory which had existed even before the war.

One of the ringleaders was James Wickes Taylor, a special agent of the Treasury Department who had dealt extensively with business from the Hudson’s Bay Company, and since 1859 he had advocated for the peaceful annexation of the colony, but was prepared to demand the use of force. In this he had the ear of two important figures. The first was Col. Henry Hastings Sibley, the former first governor of Minnesota and now the hero of the late Dakota War where he had brutally put down the Dakota uprising. The second was the new Governor, Alexander Ramsey. All three men were staunch Unionists, Ramsey being credited as the first governor to put forward the aid of his state to the Federal government, and so the proposed expedition meshed with their political, military and territorial ambitions.

Buell took little convincing, as he desired a victory which would allow him to be reinstated in the east nearer the main theater of the war. With Taylor sending back impassioned pleas to the Treasury Department, and then Ramsey’s departure to serve as a senator in Washington in March 1863, his own direct conversations with the President and the War Department, permission was not long in coming. They all allowed Buell to lay out the plan as his own idea, but nothing could have been further from the truth. Buell’s ignorance of the area, coupled with the far greater understanding in the region, made the plan one put forward directly by Taylor and Sibley. Taylor himself expressed that ‘In this present war there is no question that Minnesota alone could hold, occupy, and possess the entire Red River to Lake Winnipeg,’ which set plans in motion…” - The Red River Expedition, Maxwell Fischer, Friedrichsburg State College, 1969


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From left to right, Taylor, Sibley and Ramsey

“The aftermath of the Dakota Uprising in the Red River Colony had caused something of a shock for the settlers, the follow on campaigns in 1863 had sent over six hundred starving and hunted Sioux fleeing across the Medicine Line. This further alarmed the Métis, who became worried at the thought of a general invasion. Even after the Battle of Grand Coteau fighting between Métis and Sioux remained common.

News that the border was being closed, and that anyone with British extraction was being considered ‘hostile’ by American troops also caused genuine alarm. In June 1863, most Metis in the Red River had gathered at Lower Fort Garry to prepare for the annual buffalo hunt. There though, they had to consider matters of momentous import.

In the normal course of a year the great hunts involved upwards of 1,300 people, largely the unsettled Métis or those from outside St. Joseph. However, fear and unrest had brought in 2,000 men, women and children to discuss the war, some from as far west as the Saskatchewan River. The question of the day to be determined was whether or not the Métis had a part to play in the war. The gathered assembly elected Louis Riel, the hero of Sayer Trial, to preside over them in the matter.

The debate was joined for several days, as the intentions of the American government were mooted back and forth, the families from south of the imaginary border line offered their own opinion. Many of the nation worked as cartmen and drovers to earn extra income for their families, and their need to cross the border to hunt the buffalo was considered sacrosanct. Wild rumours that they would be killed or have their land confiscated were thrown around, but Riel was able to calm the people.

In the end he put forward two questions to the assembly:

  1. Did the American Government offer the Métis people anything they did not already have?
  2. Would the replacement of the Hudson’s Bay Company by the American Government benefit the Métis people?
The answer to the first question was a resounding no. While the people of the nation did not particularly care for the HBC men who ran the colony, Mactavish had proven generally popular with the Métis and had obvious sympathies towards them and refused to exercise political authority over them when called upon by the lii Canadas in the settlement. His lax attitudes, good relations, and respect for their institutions had earned their trust.

By contrast, the Americans, much like the Canadian settlers, largely saw the Métis as barely civilized ‘half-breeds’ who would have to give up their way of life sooner or later. Though the Métis people appreciated American democratic institutions, they were not eager to trade a largely indifferent and ineffectual government 4,000 miles away in London for a more present and more obviously brutal one in Washington. Though there had been some talk of simply letting the soldiers cross the border to pursue the Sioux, the question was raised on how they might get them to leave afterwards…” - The Northwest Is Our Mother: The Métis Nation, Jean Tache, Fort Garry Press, 2011

“It was the Assembly of 1863 which brought the question of war before Mactavish. With the pitiful resources at his disposal, he had only the small number of Volunteers and company staff at his disposal. Being intimately familiar with the organization and discipline of the Métis people, he would make the fateful approach…

The meeting which took place in Fort Garry remains to this day a subject of vicious debate between historians and the people of the province. As few present were left to witness the agreement made in the aftermath (and many would say Macdonald went to great lengths to hide any evidence of it) the exact terms of the agreement are unknown, and after the events of 1870 will likely remain forever shrouded in controversy…

What can be firmly established is this, Mactavish approached the Assembly and asked if it would be in the power of the Métis people to help defend the colony. Riel confirmed that this was true, and in line with general Métis sentiment. However, what the Métis wanted was a stake in the running of the settlement in return. In exchange, they proposed that the land title of all Metis in the settlement, or the area around it, be recognized. Mactavish would later say he only approved of the first condition, and happily granted them a say in running the settlement…” - From Selkirk to Hesperia: The History of the Red River Settlement, Samuel J. Sullivan, Wolseley, 1992

“When Mactavish approached the Assembly, he practically begged the leaders there for their aid in defending the Settlement. Seeing that this was a matter involving all of the peoples of the Red River, the Métis agreed, but only if their conditions were met. Riel laid out that they would accept this responsibility on the condition that the land title of the Metis be respected, and that they get a say in running the Red River settlement alongside the Church. Mactavish eagerly agreed to these points, and the agreement was witnessed and signed in late June of 1863…” - The Northwest Is Our Mother: The Métis Nation, Jean Tache, Fort Garry Press, 2011

“The proposed expedition against the Red River, owing to the paucity of American resources, had to wait until later in 1863. Firstly because Sibley was required to use his Minnesota troops to further campaign against the Sioux in the Dakota Territory, driving them off at Big Mound and Stoney Lake. From there he had to leave men to garrison the forts, and then form another group to invade.

He settled on a modest invasion force. He gathered his veteran troops, the 7th Minnesota under Col. Stephen Miller, who had fought in the recent Dakota War and in the July ‘63 campaign in Dakota. They were joined by the new 9th Minnesota under Col. Alexander Wilkin, a newly raised force but comprised of reliable men. Finally he had four companies of cavalry freshly raised under Edward Hatch. He was though, forced to beg a battery of artillery from Regulars, and Buell granted him the use of Battery F, 2nd US Artillery under Lt. John Darling.

All told, with the infantry, cavalry, artillery and teamsters and guides, Sibley had put together a scratch force of just under 1,500 men.

The plan was to assemble the ‘Red River Column’ at Pembina, alongside the supplies and wagons necessary for the effort. There the men would set out along the well used cart roads which led right to the Red River Colony. They would, as necessary, besiege and capture Upper and Lower Fort Garry, and set American control over the area between the Lake of the Woods, Lake Winnipeg and the Saskatchewan River. It was assumed that the presence of 1,500 American troops would simply overawe the locals. With a ‘settled’ population of barely 10,000 and then mostly half-breeds, resistance was not expected to be fierce.

The campaign of course had to wait until later in the year. He had the 9th garrison Fort Snelling, drilling alongside Hatch’s cavalry, whose first company was dispatched to watch Pembina…

The Canadians and Métis had not been idle either. In July the Métis had appointed Jean-Louis Riel as their principle chief. In exchange he had appointed seven smaller chiefs of 100 men below him in accordance with Métis hunting discipline. Names like Gabriel Dumont and Ambroise-Dydime Lépine were selected, as all the captains were expected to be firm leaders and good hunters. He had roughly 700 men under his command. He dispatched them as normal on a buffalo hunt. This served two purposes, it allowed them in July and August to conduct the annual Buffalo hunt, bringing in food for themselves and their families, and it allowed them to scout the American forces.

Sibley simply did not have enough men to track the 1,400 Métis men and women who fanned out in search of buffalo. They talked with family and friends south of the 49th parallel, observed the comings and goings in Pembina, and surrounded it to the degree that the commander of the detachment there stated he was under siege. However, they did not attack, and merely waited. The hunt continued into August…

By September Sibley had arrived with his full force. Attempts to recruit local Métis as guides and settlers failed, as none would take up arms against their extended families and their people. Instead he recruited local traders and hunters to act as his guides and collected a long baggage train of carts and a herd of cattle. His hopes of chartering a steam boat from St. Paul were dashed by the need for one to be dismantled and carried overland, which he did not have time for. Instead, on September 7th, 1863, he prepared to march.

However, on the night of the 6th, he had been approached by a delegation of Métis. Led by Riel himself, they informed Sibley that by crossing the frontier he would be committing an unfriendly act against the Métis nation. Having little patience for ‘damned half-breeds’ he rebuffed them and informed them that any violence against his column would be seen as an act of war, and a state of war would exist between the United States and the Métis. Riel tried to convince them to not cross the border, but Sibley threatened their arrest and Riel and his party departed.

The expedition set out to cover the 71 miles between Pembina and Fort Garry on the 7th. It was 71 miles of hills, coulees, river beds, and prairie which the Métis knew intimately. After a modest march of six miles through wild and hilly country, they made camp for the night. That night, a group of Métis under Dumont, snuck in and killed two guards before stampeding the cattle. There was much confusion, loss of horses, and destruction of property before the situation was under control, and before the night was out the Métis had killed five more men before galloping off for the loss of none of their own.

Sibley ordered Hatch’s cavalry to the flanks, and constant skirmish was the result. By the second day the column had only moved eight nine miles and lost fifteen men dead or wounded. They arrived at the Letellier Coule and prepared to camp. That night they were left alone, but in the morning a skirmish broke out. 300 Metis had dug rifle pits, and used their carts as cover, along the hills of the coulee. They opened a murderous fire on the American camp, killing horses, men, and teamsters. By the time Lt. Darling had unlimbered his guns the Métis were gone. Sibley issued orders that the column would stand to every morning…

Another week of murderous skirmishing would follow, men lost in small pointless skirmishes. The Métis ambushing them from cover. Whenever the men would form a skirmish line to engage the Métis would fight them for a time, but then simply fall back. The guns brought forward were used ineffectually to blast after their assailants…

Finally the column reached the point of no return. Having left over one hundred dead and wounded behind them, as well as two companies to garrison points on the river to hopefully bring supplies forward later, the column had shrunk to just under 1,200 men. They reached the last natural obstacle to their advance on Fort Garry, the River Sale. Finally reaching the parishes of the major Métis settlements. Along the way the soldiers had stopped to revenge themselves on Métis farmsteads. They never found any Métis but looted and burnt to soothe their frustrations.

It was here though, that Riel and his chiefs had planned their last ditch stand. He had gathered all 700 of his men here, and would mount a do or die defence. Like at the Battle of Grand Coteau in 1858, the Métis would dig rifle pits and use their own carts as cover. But they laid a clever trap and had a secret weapon. They placed some of their men in the open, hoping to look like settler Volunteers guarding the fords across the river. Sibley however, smelled a rat and opted to bombard the apparent settlers, which caused them to run. Sibley then ordered the veteran 7th to shake into a skirmish line and advance under the cover of guns to the river.

The Métis, though startled by the barrage, stayed in their rifle pits and picked off the advancing men with well placed shots. Before the 7th had reached the fords, they had fallen to murderous fire. They fell back, and tried again. On the third attack Sibley brought his entire force, and dismounted a company of cavalry and they attempted a charge. Though under shot and shell, the Métis had their priests go behind them carrying crosses, giving comfort and absolution to their wounded. Any men who might have fled were met by their wives who were with the main wagons and shamed into returning…

In the subsequent charge Sibley was wounded, and Col. Miller was killed...

That was when the secret weapon appeared.

Mactavish had been persuaded by Schultz that the two steamers under Company control could be armed and used to harass the Americans on the river. Mactavish had agreed, and four guns had been dismounted from Lower Fort Garry and mounted two each on the Anson Northrup and the International. Schultz, fancying himself a war hero, led the effort and stood on the bridge of the Northrup to guide her to battle. Unfortunately, his lack of experience and the low water level meant all he managed to do was guide the Northrup to the banks of the Red River and ground her[3]. In the end only the International would appear at the head of the river and ineffectually cast shot at the Americans.

Her appearance though, broke the American ranks. They withdrew, any sense of safety shattered.... They were harassed by Riel’s men until they returned to Pembina on September 29th…

...The American column, flush from its victory over the poorly armed Sioux, had assumed that fighting the ‘half breeds’ would present no great challenge. Their lack of respect for the foe or general knowledge of the terrain made the outcome almost inevitable. Including dead, wounded, sick and deserters the American force suffered some 537 losses before returning to American territory. The Métis losses were estimated at just over 100 dead and wounded, most of those killed at the Battle of the River Sale...

In lessons which should have been learned in 1863, the American Army would instead have to go on to learn the lessons all over again against Red Cloud, Crazy Horse, and Lone Wolf…”- The Red River Expedition, Maxwell Fischer, Friedrichsburg State College, 1969


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1] He will feature prominently once we move on in the story though, I can say that much!

2] Ironically this very march was led by none other than Charles F. Smith who ITTL commanded the invasion of Canada West!

3] In truth she actually grounded over the winter of 1861-62 OTL, but I couldn’t resist ending the first steamboat on the Red River like this!
 
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I'll just say this for the Americans: as bad as it was, it probably could have been worse. I thought they were going to get Sibley to cross the river and pin him there with the boats.
 
@EnglishCanuck , thank you for these two amazing updates! I have very limited knowledge of ACW, but in my opinion your TL is by far the most plausible and detailed Trent Affair timeline (and ACW TL in general).
I am eagerly awaiting for how the TL develops further.


For post war politics, no matter what the outcome, the relations between Britain/Canada and the US will be terrible. Even if the US loses no territory, they will believe they have been attacked and Britain has 'meddled' in their internal affairs in the worst way possible. The relationship would be very similar to that which was predominant after the Revolution, dislike, distrust, and a lot of anger. There will be a general hostility, very 'simmering' relations one might say.

I have a somewhat hard time figuring out British war goals. Too much blood and money has been spent to just accept monetary restitution and prestige, but I also cannot see many chunks of land inhabited by large amounts of people who would much rather be in the USA than in the British Empire changing hands. Some land in Oregon, sure, but would they also try to extend the northwest territories down to a natural border, like lake Sakakewa and Missouri/Yellowstone River west thereof?
British war goals are technically those they stated back in December of 1861, and at least that is what they present publically, but behind closed doors they're drawing up others. Palmerston has some firm goals in mind. I've actually already finished the chapter dealing with the peace treaty, so I do have the British goals in mind. Much is coming down to the dollar value of the war, but Palmerston won't be satisfied unless he snips some territory from the US.
That is a question I have been pondering over for a while.
Specifically, in case of unenviable hostile relations with Union (and the relations with USA are bound to be overtly hostile as you argue in the post above) what parts of US territory British cabinet would ideally like to annex in case of undisputed, but not too ASBish victory.
In other words: what are British maximal realistic demands if they don’t care about not antagonizing America and only care about USA theoretically being able to accept such deal and BNA being able to integrate the ceded land?

The answer obviously depends on the severity of American defeat, so for the purpose of this mental experiment let us assume that from this point on everything in the war goes in British favor (I obviously don’t claim that this will be the case with TTL).
E. g., say Army of Canada cruses Army of Hudson in northern New York and takes Albany, thus securing its position in northern New York and acquiring a bridgehead to move further south. Corps in Canada West gains reinforced, while Army of Niagara is forced to send reinforcements to Central New York and thus British are able to defeat the remaining part of AoN definitively. As a result, Army of Canada liberates all parts of Canada West and invests Detroit and Buffalo.
In the same time British fleet lures USN into open battle and crushes it (thus making blockade of US coast almost impenetrable), while Lee takes Washington.
After all this (and maybe some other actions like Army of Maritimes advance in New England, British victories on the West Coast etc.) Britain starts peace negotiations.
Of course, major coastal cities such as Boston, NYC or Philadelphia still remain in US hands as well is all coast between them, at the very least southern New York, most Pennsylvania and more or less all Midwest.

So in this fictional scenario (once again, I don’t claim that this is what will happen ITTL, or even if this scenario is too plausible; I just tried to describe the extent of what I personally believe is the maximal extent of British victory without it being a complete ASB), what territories would Britain be happy to demand and USA could theoretically cede (no matter how reluctantly)?

Here is my take on it (but of course my understanding of Northern America politics is limited, so I’d be really happy to see the opinion of more knowledgeable people, especially of @EnglishCanuck):

1. Britain would like to secure communications with Canada as much as it can. This means that the possible British claims ideally should include:
  • Southern bank of Saint Lawrence preventing USA from threatening communications via river and Grand Trunk as happened ITTL.
  • Some territories around Lake Champlain (or at least northern part of it), making a direct attack on Montreal as costly and difficult an endeavor as possible.
  • Territories in eastern and northern Maine, securing land communications between Bay of Fundy and Grand Trunk i. e. Temiscouta Road (described in chapter 8 of the TL) and a finished railroad from St. Andrews to Richmond Corner west of Woodstock (finished by 1862, source ; ITTL given American hostility this railroad may be extended to link with Grand Trunk soon after or even during the war).
2. Britain would probably be happy to annexed as much lightly settled American territory in the West as feasible.
3. Britain would ideally like to secure the Great Lakes as much as possible.
4. Britain would prefer to take militarily important resources close to border.
5. Britain would not consider annexing too many Americans (not that USA would accept any such treaty in any way), otherwise Canada would have a lot of trouble integrating hostile population and may become unstable. How many is too many is up to a debate.
6. USA would accept not treaty that gives Britain too much population and would be extremely reluctant to cede any major town (say larger than 10 thousand people).
7. USA would under no circumstance agree to any treaty militarily endangering coast between Boston and Philadelphia. So British acquiring a naval base on Long Island or even probably on Martha’s Vineyard is absolutely out of question.

Given all these considerations I tried to create a watershed-based map (i. e. georaphically justified) of maximum feasible British demands (of course Americans accepting all of this is unlikely even in “dream” scenario described above), calculated number of people being ceded to BNA (using 1860 census data) and tried to account most important resources.
I have separately calculated the number of recent immigrants from BNA, England and Scotland (1860 census data for total number of foreign-born people and 1870 census data for percentages of specific nations among foreiner ), presuming they would not be more agreeable to British government (simplification of course, since some immigrants are political, but then again not all Americans would be hostile to Canadian government either).

Here is the map from east to west:
1. Maine and New Hampshire (securing eastern and northern Maine, and New Hampshire north of White mts. thus taking additional portion of Grand Trunk)
4vPvEty.jpg

In total there are 65 thousand people in these borders, of which 15 thousand British or Canadia. There are no strategic resources of note in these regions.

2. Vermont and Northern New York. Here Britain could annex Lake Champlain shores up to Fort Crown Point narrows, where modern Lake Champlain Bridge is located (less than 1 km), thus making any US naval presence on Champlain extremely vulnerable. Britain also could annex New York north of Adirondacks and southern shore of St. Lawrence thus securing the main line of communication.
6tRhLKn.jpg

In total there are 325 thousand people in these borders (of these 90 thousand are from Vermont, rest from NY), of which 55 thousand are Canadian or British (of these 20 thousand are in Vermont, rest from NY; majority in both states are French Canadians). Sources on Franco-Canadians in Vermont and Northern NY (link_1, link_2, link_3, link_4, link_5 )
The most important strategic resources in these territories are high-quality iron ore mines in Adirondacks, most notably mines around Moriah, NY (9% of iron ore produced in USA in both 1870 and 1880, probably more in 1860). Source (p. 47 onwards).

3. Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Here Britain could claim north-eastern part of Michigan's Lower Peninsula (thus making Lake Huron British inner lake), Michigan Upper Peninsula, Wisconsin Lake Superior Shore and Minnesota north of Duluth-Lake Travers line (thus making Lake Superior British inner lake and returning Britain the whole Red River wastershed).
1PyXUbK.jpg

vQVDRKT.jpg

mZKOQa4.jpg


In total there are 85 thousand people in these borders, of which 30 thousand are Canadian or British.
The most important strategic resources in these territories are gigantic Lake Superior iron deposits (22% of iron ore produced in USA in 1870, 23% in 1880, up to 90% later on) and massive copper deposits in Michigan UP (75% of total US production in 1860, 87% in 1870, 82% in 1880). Source with most importan mineral resources for each state in USA in 1850-1900.
There are also decent coal deposits around Saginaw Bay, Michigan LP (IOTL they were underdeveloped because of abundance of richer coal deposits in other parts of USA – peak production of just 1 million tons per year; however, as I understand it Canada doesn’t have a lot of coal that can be easily transported into Ontario; Saginaw Bay deposits provide such an opportunity). Source.

4. Further west I am assuming British claims as rough line of Lake Travers - OTL North-South Dakota border-Yellowstone river-Salmon river - OTL Washington-Oregon Border (thus Britain could get all North Dakota, most Montana, Idaho Panhandle and Washington).
In 1860 these territories have less than 15 thousand American population. This territories have rich resources (gold, silver, copper and coal in Montana, oil in North Dakota, coal in Washington) , but this resources are mostly undiscovered in 1860s.

In total within these borders are 100 thousand recent immigrees from BNA and Britain and 390 thousand people of other origin (for comparison the total population of Canada in 1867 is 3.5 millions). While this is a lot, I do think that such numbers can be integrated by BNA if barely.
So all in all I believe these to be maximum possible British demands to USA given a total, but not completely ASBish victory. Of course Americans would hardly accept all these demands even in case of near-to total defeat, so these are probably more options for British to chose from, rather than a full treaty.

P. S. @EnglishCanuck, sorry for a wall of text not directly related to the current events in TL. If you consider my post offtopic I would gladly remove it from here.
 
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@Shnurre
I think you've got too many states and not enough territories as well as made a long and terrifying border to guard. That New England border needlessly antagonizes New Hampshire and Vermont while leaving easily defendable Maine far too off the hook. Michigan is just too easy to clip off from Canada proper with minimal effort and requires way too many soldiers to defend for what it's worth. The Upper Peninsula might be worth grabbing for the copper and iron and you can keep an eye on Chicago as well as help safeguard the lower Great Lakes. The northern portion of Minnesota that was given to the USA in the Webster Ashburton Treaty could probably be claimed without ruffling too many feathers.

In the west thought... I'd say if Britain was feeling truly punitive and didn't care about the ramifications they should just nab the whole of the Dakota and Washington Territories.
Having said all that, not everyone in the UK is keen on fighting the war and continuing on past a reasonable peace treaty makes everyone look bad. Plus, the CSA isn't necessarily going to want to continue just for Britain's territorial aggrandizement. Support for the war has an expiration date
 
That New England border needlessly antagonizes New Hampshire and Vermont while leaving easily defendable Maine far too off the hook.
Vermont is antagonized ITTL in any way - one of several casuses belli was in St. Albans, VT. The proposed border in Vermont is mostly via Green mts. and thus easily defendable and also basically locks Lake Champlain from US shipping. These areas also have the highest percentage of Canadians (almost 25%) of any part of USA other than Michigan. While losing 90 thousand people is hard for Vermont, I do think the demands are justified from British perspective.

With New Hampshire, I don't think it is antagonized especially much. While ceded territory looks large on map, it barely has any population (just 13 thousand people). Removing a wedge from British territory, taking a part of Grand Trunk and having a defensible border over White mts., IMHO, justifies it.

With Maine, I don’t think it is too off the hook. It looses more than 50 thousand people, which is of cource less, than Vermont, but 4 times more than New Hampshire. While from purely geographic point of view, Maine is a salient and could be annexed completely, it is absolutely unfeasible from demographic point of view (Maine has 630 thousand people in 1860). Moving border further west is while possible doesn’t really serve any strategic goals, while simultaneously adding American population. Say border going through Bangor is not much shorter or more defensible, but adds another 125 thousand people.
Michigan is just too easy to clip off from Canada proper with minimal effort and requires way too many soldiers to defend for what it's worth.
I agree that defending the proposed border in Michigan from a determined American assault would be extremely difficult. It’s annexation, though serves an extremely important strategic goal: completely secures Lake Huron for Canada. This holds true even if USA swiftly takes all Michigan shore: Americans would not have wharfs or secure harbors on the lake.
The added benefit of taking valuable coal deposits and having the highest percentage of Canadians of anywhere else in USA (almost 40%!) makes such territorial claim justifiable.
 
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I'll just say this for the Americans: as bad as it was, it probably could have been worse. I thought they were going to get Sibley to cross the river and pin him there with the boats.

My own reading of how the Metis would have responded to an American invasion has me concluding they would only act to drive the American column away, not out and out destroy it. From the fights with the Sioux to the fighting against the Canadian forces in 1885 my conclusion was that Metis style warfare was better at using the wide expanse of the plains to deter and drive off enemy forces, not crush them outright.

This of course might be subject to change in the future...
 
@EnglishCanuck , thank you for these two amazing updates! I have very limited knowledge of ACW, but in my opinion your TL is by far the most plausible and detailed Trent Affair timeline (and ACW TL in general).
I am eagerly awaiting for how the TL develops further.

Thank you! I'm glad you're enjoying the TL, and hopefully I'm going to have a more rapid update schedule through July/August this year. I'm working to get everything up to September 1863 done before 2021, and if I'm lucky we might get to 1864 in January/February of 2021. That year will hopefully go faster.

That is a question I have been pondering over for a while.
Specifically, in case of unenviable hostile relations with Union (and the relations with USA are bound to be overtly hostile as you argue in the post above) what parts of US territory British cabinet would ideally like to annex in case of undisputed, but not too ASBish victory.
In other words: what are British maximal realistic demands if they don’t care about not antagonizing America and only care about USA theoretically being able to accept such deal and BNA being able to integrate the ceded land?

The answer obviously depends on the severity of American defeat, so for the purpose of this mental experiment let us assume that from this point on everything in the war goes in British favor (I obviously don’t claim that this will be the case with TTL).
E. g., say Army of Canada cruses Army of Hudson in northern New York and takes Albany, thus securing its position in northern New York and acquiring a bridgehead to move further south. Corps in Canada West gains reinforced, while Army of Niagara is forced to send reinforcements to Central New York and thus British are able to defeat the remaining part of AoN definitively. As a result, Army of Canada liberates all parts of Canada West and invests Detroit and Buffalo.
In the same time British fleet lures USN into open battle and crushes it (thus making blockade of US coast almost impenetrable), while Lee takes Washington.
After all this (and maybe some other actions like Army of Maritimes advance in New England, British victories on the West Coast etc.) Britain starts peace negotiations.
Of course, major coastal cities such as Boston, NYC or Philadelphia still remain in US hands as well is all coast between them, at the very least southern New York, most Pennsylvania and more or less all Midwest.

So in this fictional scenario (once again, I don’t claim that this is what will happen ITTL, or even if this scenario is too plausible; I just tried to describe the extent of what I personally believe is the maximal extent of British victory without it being a complete ASB), what territories would Britain be happy to demand and USA could theoretically cede (no matter how reluctantly)?

Here is my take on it (but of course my understanding of Northern America politics is limited, so I’d be really happy to see the opinion of more knowledgeable people, especially of @EnglishCanuck):

In light of everything that has taken place within Wrapped in Flames so far, well, that kind of victory isn't extremely outlandish, but I can't confirm or deny I hope you understand ;)

1. Britain would like to secure communications with Canada as much as it can. This means that the possible British claims ideally should include:
  • Southern bank of Saint Lawrence preventing USA from threatening communications via river and Grand Trunk as happened ITTL.
  • Some territories around Lake Champlain (or at least northern part of it), making a direct attack on Montreal as costly and difficult an endeavor as possible.
  • Territories in eastern and northern Maine, securing land communications between Bay of Fundy and Grand Trunk i. e. Temiscouta Road (described in chapter 8 of the TL) and a finished railroad from St. Andrews to Richmond Corner west of Woodstock (finished by 1862, source ; ITTL given American hostility this railroad may be extended to link with Grand Trunk soon after or even during the war).
2. Britain would probably be happy to annexed as much lightly settled American territory in the West as feasible.
3. Britain would ideally like to secure the Great Lakes as much as possible.
4. Britain would prefer to take militarily important resources close to border.
5. Britain would not consider annexing too many Americans (not that USA would accept any such treaty in any way), otherwise Canada would have a lot of trouble integrating hostile population and may become unstable. How many is too many is up to a debate.
6. USA would accept not treaty that gives Britain too much population and would be extremely reluctant to cede any major town (say larger than 10 thousand people).
7. USA would under no circumstance agree to any treaty militarily endangering coast between Boston and Philadelphia. So British acquiring a naval base on Long Island or even probably on Martha’s Vineyard is absolutely out of question.

Given all these considerations I tried to create a watershed-based map (i. e. georaphically justified) of maximum feasible British demands (of course Americans accepting all of this is unlikely even in “dream” scenario described above), calculated number of people being ceded to BNA (using 1860 census data) and tried to account most important resources.
I have separately calculated the number of recent immigrants from BNA, England and Scotland (1860 census data for total number of foreign-born people and 1870 census data for percentages of specific nations among foreiner ), presuming they would not be more agreeable to British government (simplification of course, since some immigrants are political, but then again not all Americans would be hostile to Canadian government either).

Here is the map from east to west:
1. Maine and New Hampshire (securing eastern and northern Maine, and New Hampshire north of White mts. thus taking additional portion of Grand Trunk)
4vPvEty.jpg

In total there are 65 thousand people in these borders, of which 15 thousand British or Canadia. There are no strategic resources of note in these regions.

So Maine specifically is going to be very important in the coming peace negotiations, I can say without giving too much away. You do hit some of the issues on the head. As was laid out in Chapter 9, there are big problems with the frontier between Maine and New Brunswick/Quebec from the British perspective. The American frontier is too close, their own communications are stretched and the overland route is vulnerable to interdiction by American forces. TTL (as OTL) the British had plans to seize locations along the border to better defend their overland route, which would probably have ended up with the British occupying a big chunk of the Maine border with regulars and then militia.

So far as I've been able to suss out, the Americans had a pretty bleak hope of actually threatening the British overland communications, and they seemed far more worried about a descent on Portland or Bangor than any potential overland attack on New Brunswick on their part. Their resources were needed elsewhere.

As has happened ITTL, the British do occupy these points. Interestingly enough Palmerston often referred to the Webster-Ashburton Treaty as "the Ashburton surrender" so some changes to that particular article are practically pre-ordained in the British demands. Though I don't believe that would include New Hampshire at all, as it wasn't really on the British radar.

2. Vermont and Northern New York. Here Britain could annex Lake Champlain shores up to Fort Crown Point narrows, where modern Lake Champlain Bridge is located (less than 1 km), thus making any US naval presence on Champlain extremely vulnerable. Britain also could annex New York north of Adirondacks and southern shore of St. Lawrence thus securing the main line of communication.
6tRhLKn.jpg

In total there are 325 thousand people in these borders (of these 90 thousand are from Vermont, rest from NY), of which 55 thousand are Canadian or British (of these 20 thousand are in Vermont, rest from NY; majority in both states are French Canadians). Sources on Franco-Canadians in Vermont and Northern NY (link_1, link_2, link_3, link_4, link_5 )
The most important strategic resources in these territories are high-quality iron ore mines in Adirondacks, most notably mines around Moriah, NY (9% of iron ore produced in USA in both 1870 and 1880, probably more in 1860). Source (p. 47 onwards).

This is interesting, as the British did have (in 1814 at least) hopes of switching a great swathe of northern New York to do the very thing you allude to (better securing the St. Lawrence) and giving the defence of Canada more depth.

I'm not sure though that this border as depicted would be unforcable. The TL British presence in Vermont is very much limited to the northern portion of the state near St. Albans, and they don't yet have many troops in western New York beyond a strong garrison at Mooers. That might change in the future, but currently it's not really in the cards.

If the British were to demand territory though, I would suspect it would be closer to their demands at Ghent in 1814 looking at Plattsburgh to Sackett's harbor, or Rouse's Point to Ogdensburgh as the case may be.

3. Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Here Britain could claim north-eastern part of Michigan's Lower Peninsula (thus making Lake Huron British inner lake), Michigan Upper Peninsula, Wisconsin Lake Superior Shore and Minnesota north of Duluth-Lake Travers line (thus making Lake Superior British inner lake and returning Britain the whole Red River wastershed).
1PyXUbK.jpg

vQVDRKT.jpg

mZKOQa4.jpg


In total there are 85 thousand people in these borders, of which 30 thousand are Canadian or British.
The most important strategic resources in these territories are gigantic Lake Superior iron deposits (22% of iron ore produced in USA in 1870, 23% in 1880, up to 90% later on) and massive copper deposits in Michigan UP (75% of total US production in 1860, 87% in 1870, 82% in 1880). Source with most importan mineral resources for each state in USA in 1850-1900.
There are also decent coal deposits around Saginaw Bay, Michigan LP (IOTL they were underdeveloped because of abundance of richer coal deposits in other parts of USA – peak production of just 1 million tons per year; however, as I understand it Canada doesn’t have a lot of coal that can be easily transported into Ontario; Saginaw Bay deposits provide such an opportunity). Source.
https://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1950/0077/report.pdf

So the British presence on the Great Lakes outside Lake Ontario is basically nonexistent. They have a strong squadron on Lake Ontario, but nothing beyond it. The limited Canadian shipping on Lake Erie was almost all captured at the start of the war, and anything in the further lakes was basically forced to port or seized by the Union when it occupied much of Canada West in 1862. Even now in the summer of 1863 the Anglo-Canadian forces have just reached the outskirts of Toronto, and are not yet strong enough to force the issue.

The British might try something later in 1863/64 to remedy that, but at the moment it is very unlikely the would push for any concessions on the Michigan or Minnesota borders.

That said, for the Americans, they do have a fairly strong division of Minnesota state volunteers on garrison duties in the Northwest, their basically the only troops available that can be run around. Even then a good portion of them are spread out fighting the Dakota/Sioux and protecting settlers, and soon to be just guarding the border line. The Michigan/Wisconsin troops who otherwise might lend support are all spread out in garrisons in Canada West and portions of Ohio/Kentucky. Their squadron on Lake Erie, and a few extemporized gunboats on the upper lakes, does control most of those waterways for a lack of proper competition though. Which does give them a very strong hand in the northwest.

4. Further west I am assuming British claims as rough line of Lake Travers - OTL North-South Dakota border-Yellowstone river-Salmon river - OTL Washington-Oregon Border (thus Britain could get all North Dakota, most Montana, Idaho Panhandle and Washington).
In 1860 these territories have less than 15 thousand American population. This territories have rich resources (gold, silver, copper and coal in Montana, oil in North Dakota, coal in Washington) , but this resources are mostly undiscovered in 1860s.

It's an interesting idea, and the British might be looking more at some gains on the Pacific or the plains, but currently their extent of control is the Salish Sea and the Puget Sound to Olympia and some points west. Other than patrols and some skirmishing, the British control the coast. So far there's just too much space, and not enough troops to do more than control where their feet are standing.

The Battle of River Sale will have some guaranteed aftereffects on the Plains post-war, that much I can guarantee!

In total within these borders are 100 thousand recent immigrees from BNA and Britain and 390 thousand people of other origin (for comparison the total population of Canada in 1867 is 3.5 millions). While this is a lot, I do think that such numbers can be integrated by BNA if barely.
So all in all I believe these to be maximum possible British demands to USA given a total, but not completely ASBish victory. Of course Americans would hardly accept all these demands even in case of near-to total defeat, so these are probably more options for British to chose from, rather than a full treaty.

This is interesting input, and some fun speculation! The closer we get to the treaty here the more speculation/input I hope to receive! The campaigns of 1863-64 might change some of this, but I guarantee that both sides are thinking close to your methods for at least points 1, 2 and 4.
 
This is interesting input, and some fun speculation! The closer we get to the treaty here the more speculation/input I hope to receive! The campaigns of 1863-64 might change some of this, but I guarantee that both sides are thinking close to your methods for at least points 1, 2 and 4.
Honestly, I think the peace in the south will be far more contentious than any peace in Canada simply because most of what Canada is likely to get is 90% empty wilderness. I have yet to see a decent timeline discuss the actual peace talks meaningful in the Confederacy.

Like West Virginia... is it's counter-secession even technically legal (it certainly doesn't seem legal based on the constitution)? Does the south even care, or would they rather trade it for something else? What happens to the southernmost counties that are pro-Virginia? I expect that topic alone to take up a huge amount of time of the peace talks.

Or Maryland. If Maryland has a Confederate backed government and a Union backed government, what happens? Baltimore is a major prize and both sides would be insane not to try for it.

And at some point the Union can always say no and just continue fighting, or run the risk of making an easy peace with one side and turn around and bang on the other.
 
Honestly, I think the peace in the south will be far more contentious than any peace in Canada simply because most of what Canada is likely to get is 90% empty wilderness.

The peace between the United States and Great Britain, no matter what, is always going to be contentious. Though if any territory swaps hands you are correct in that most of it is going to be 90% wilderness. I even checked out the counties that formed the 'arrowhead' in Minnesota and found that population in 1860 was barely a few thousand, if that, all told. Though portions of Maine the British might seek to annex are considerably more populous. The Aroostook County in 1860 had a population of 22,000 people, and the other border regions from the tip of Aroostook to the Bay of Fundy would easily add some 20,000 more. That would be an interesting conundrum to sort out, especially for the Lincoln government since Maine is a staunchly Republican state in 1860...

I have yet to see a decent timeline discuss the actual peace talks meaningful in the Confederacy.

I suspect you have read it, but for those who haven't Jeff Brooks Blessed Are the Peacemakers is a wonderful novella dealing with hypotheticals of a peace negotiation between the Confederate States of America and the United States in 1865, and as a great postscript has the entire treaty laid out at the end with all it's clauses!

I've quibbled about trying to write an entire example of the treaty between the United States and the British Empire which ends the war in Wrapped in Flames and if there's enough interest I'll probably do it. Be a fun exercise at the very least.

Like West Virginia... is it's counter-secession even technically legal (it certainly doesn't seem legal based on the constitution)? Does the south even care, or would they rather trade it for something else? What happens to the southernmost counties that are pro-Virginia? I expect that topic alone to take up a huge amount of time of the peace talks.

West Virginia represents an... interesting area of political shenanigans. West Virginia was practically declared by a minority of the new state, and it's acceptance was a political move which IMO was designed to get more Republican support in the '64 election, much like the admission of Nevada as a state even though it was hardly better than a territory in terms of organization.

The question of horse trading around West Virginia is definitely an open one, something I'm keeping in mind. If the Confederacy were to gain it's independence I would imagine Virginia would insist on retaining West Virginia, but national pressure might compel it to accept it's loss for concessions somewhere else in the country depending where the front lines end.

Another interesting question is whether the state would keep the name West Virginia or adopt a more independent name like it's original proposed name of Kanawha...

Or Maryland. If Maryland has a Confederate backed government and a Union backed government, what happens? Baltimore is a major prize and both sides would be insane not to try for it.

ITTL that's a great question for Kentucky too!

Though Maryland is now in a peculiar position in WiF, the state government has fled to Baltimore but the Confederacy, ironically, doesn't actually have an opposing government to put in place. While the Confederates now control some of the Tidewater portions of the state that had Southern sympathizers historically and the state capital at Annapolis, they don't yet control Baltimore and are quite intent on the Washington siege, and so are leaving an important spot in their rear as yet unattended.

And at some point the Union can always say no and just continue fighting, or run the risk of making an easy peace with one side and turn around and bang on the other.

I think this captures the possibilities here quite succinctly.
 
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The peace between the United States and Great Britain, no matter what, is always going to be contentious. Though if any territory swaps hands you are correct in that most of it is going to be 90% wilderness. I even checked out the counties that formed the 'arrowhead' in Minnesota and found that population in 1860 was barely a few thousand, if that, all told. Though portions of Maine the British might seek to annex are considerably more populous. The Aroostook County in 1860 had a population of 22,000 people, and the other border regions from the tip of Aroostook to the Bay of Fundy would easily add some 20,000 more. That would be an interesting conundrum to sort out, especially for the Lincoln government since Maine is a staunchly Republican state in 1860...
This is a hill I will die on. The Penobscot is the best border. It keeps America at bay from the population centers and LoC and the territory is nigh impossible to cross and the rest is easily defended from sea.

I suspect you have read it, but for those who haven't Jeff Brooks Blessed Are the Peacemakers is a wonderful novella dealing with hypotheticals of a peace negotiation between the Confederate States of America and the United States in 1865, and as a great postscript has the entire treaty laid out at the end with all it's clauses!

I've quibbled about trying to write an entire example of the treaty between the United States and the British Empire which ends the war in Wrapped in Flames and if there's enough interest I'll probably do it. Be a fun exercise at the very least.
I would recommend everyone read Shattered Nation. Jeffrey Brooks wrote a really great book there.

West Virginia represents an... interesting area of political shenanigans. West Virginia was practically declared by a minority of the new state, and it's acceptance was a political move which IMO was designed to get more Republican support in the '64 election, much like the admission of Nevada as a state even though it was hardly better than a territory in terms of organization.

The question of horse trading around West Virginia is definitely an open one, something I'm keeping in mind. If the Confederacy were to gain it's independence I would imagine Virginia would insist on retaining West Virginia, but national pressure might compel it to accept it's loss for concessions somewhere else in the country depending where the front lines end.

Another interesting question is whether the state would keep the name West Virginia or adopt a more independent name like it's original proposed name of Kanawha...
I honestly think this is a chance for Napoleon III to shine and offer to mediate the dispute. Have a panel with 3 members of each supreme court have a session with another neutral country lawyer as a tie breaker.

ITTL that's a great question for Kentucky too!
My genuine opinion is that with Kentucky it's an all or nothing venture. Both sides will trade a heap of stuff to keep it and neither will be happy with only half.
Though Maryland is now in a peculiar position in WiF, the state government has fled to Baltimore but the Confederacy, ironically, doesn't actually have an opposing government to put in place. While the Confederates now control some of the Tidewater portions of the state that had Southern sympathizers historically and the state capital at Annapolis, they don't yet control Baltimore and are quite intent on the Washington siege, and so are leaving an important spot in their rear as yet unattended.
When you say leave it unattended, I think you mean, "let Britain have a another crack at 'er like way back in 1814, but bigger!" :p
 

Ficboy

Banned
This is a hill I will die on. The Penobscot is the best border. It keeps America at bay from the population centers and LoC and the territory is nigh impossible to cross and the rest is easily defended from sea.


I would recommend everyone read Shattered Nation. Jeffrey Brooks wrote a really great book there.


I honestly think this is a chance for Napoleon III to shine and offer to mediate the dispute. Have a panel with 3 members of each supreme court have a session with another neutral country lawyer as a tie breaker.


My genuine opinion is that with Kentucky it's an all or nothing venture. Both sides will trade a heap of stuff to keep it and neither will be happy with only half.

When you say leave it unattended, I think you mean, "let Britain have a another crack at 'er like way back in 1814, but bigger!" :p
Kentucky is the most likely Border State to fall to the Confederate States since they control the eastern parts of the state and Frankfort (the state capital). Missouri is unlikely given the growing non-Southern immigrant population of Irish-Americans and German-Americans and firm Union control over the state and Maryland is a tossup with the Tidewater areas very supportive of the Confederacy due to being plantation-heavy while Baltimore is very divided between Unionists and Confederates and the central/western areas very much supporters of the Union. West Virginia isn't going to rejoin Virginia anytime soon for reasons we already know.

Britain and the Confederacy will very well force America to have the Border States (not counting Delaware for obvious reasons) to vote on whether to secede or stay. The British might also want a portion of American land though they are likely to run into staunch opposition.
 
Kentucky is the most likely Border State to fall to the Confederate States since they control the eastern parts of the state and Frankfort (the state capital). Missouri is unlikely given the growing non-Southern immigrant population of Irish-Americans and German-Americans and firm Union control over the state and Maryland is a tossup with the Tidewater areas very supportive of the Confederacy due to being plantation-heavy while Baltimore is very divided between Unionists and Confederates and the central/western areas very much supporters of the Union. West Virginia isn't going to rejoin Virginia anytime soon for reasons we already know.

Britain and the Confederacy will very well force America to have the Border States (not counting Delaware for obvious reasons) to vote on whether to secede or stay. The British might also want a portion of American land though they are likely to run into staunch opposition.

Some of it also would have to do with who has boots on the ground where. The South, hypothetically, could end the war controlling Annapolis, but not Baltimore and points north or west, which would mean that while they technically control the state capital, they wouldn't have a lot of room to bargain to keep the whole state. Conversely, the Confederate government in Kentucky is something of a problem since so far ITTL, they've been headquartered in the state for over a year which tends to give them a certain amount of legitimacy in the eyes of the common people. The fact that the pro-Union state governor skedaddled isn't going to help that.

The big problem for Missouri right now is that while there's some diehard secessionists in the Confederate army, they don't really have a popular mandate or a state government which can make claims to legitimacy.

The peace talks will be interesting no matter what happens.
 
This is a hill I will die on. The Penobscot is the best border. It keeps America at bay from the population centers and LoC and the territory is nigh impossible to cross and the rest is easily defended from sea.

Ah it would be a great border. Problematically TTL the British have focused on Aroostook and Portland and it's environs! Whether they can push more remains to be seen...

I honestly think this is a chance for Napoleon III to shine and offer to mediate the dispute. Have a panel with 3 members of each supreme court have a session with another neutral country lawyer as a tie breaker.

Well as we've seen, Napoleon III certainly has ambitions. He might well be hoping to call another Congress of Paris to make a more impressive second act. While so far he's getting neck deep in Mexico (as I'll cover in my wrap up for 1863) he's also hoping to use the conflict to legitimize some of his more ambitious projects. He's kinda reaping the rewards of the fighting so far, as without lifting a finger he's got his main European rivals distracted and the only actual impediment to his victory in Mexico tied up pretty badly.

His problem as a negotiator for a hypothetical West Virginia, I think, is it's too well known he has a stake in the outcome.

My genuine opinion is that with Kentucky it's an all or nothing venture. Both sides will trade a heap of stuff to keep it and neither will be happy with only half.

Oh it's definitely an all or nothing game! The issue of what to trade and what to drop is going to be interesting at either peace conference. If the Confederates get to the negotiating table they'll be operating in a much better position than they might otherwise be. Kentucky is definitely going to be in the wild card section for any hypothetical peace.

When you say leave it unattended, I think you mean, "let Britain have a another crack at 'er like way back in 1814, but bigger!" :p

Well, ironclads and a great big rebel army might change matters from how they were in 1814 :p
 

Ficboy

Banned
Some of it also would have to do with who has boots on the ground where. The South, hypothetically, could end the war controlling Annapolis, but not Baltimore and points north or west, which would mean that while they technically control the state capital, they wouldn't have a lot of room to bargain to keep the whole state. Conversely, the Confederate government in Kentucky is something of a problem since so far ITTL, they've been headquartered in the state for over a year which tends to give them a certain amount of legitimacy in the eyes of the common people. The fact that the pro-Union state governor skedaddled isn't going to help that.

The big problem for Missouri right now is that while there's some diehard secessionists in the Confederate army, they don't really have a popular mandate or a state government which can make claims to legitimacy.

The peace talks will be interesting no matter what happens.
British support means that the Confederates have a better chance of winning. The window for Confederate victory is small and specific periods in 1861-1862 such as after Bull Run in July 1861 and after the Trent Affair/before Fort Henry and Fort Donelson in January 1862, after the Seven Days in July 1862 and before Antietam and Perryville in September 1862 and to a lesser extent after Fredericksburg in January 1863 give them opportunities to win the Civil War as in outlast the Union in specific battles long enough for foreign recognition to come especially the former two. If you take the Civil War and have it happen in say 1853-1855 (Henry Clay dies of tuberculosis much earlier than OTL and thus no Compromise of 1850 which leads to the United States fires upon Texas for attempting to seize half of New Mexico) then the Confederate States has a better chance of winning since some of the stuff the United States developed would not exist like the extensive railroads and ironclad ships granted there is still a disparity in terms of population and industry but it's lessened here and I have a timeline called Arrival of the Crisis that focuses on this very idea. The Confederate presence in Kentucky is strong in Wrapped in Flames and thus given what you've said the state will most likely defect from the Union, Maryland might potentially be partitioned into two a la West Virginia and Missouri is unlikely to join barring a miracle or unexpected swing in sentiments.
 
Snip
The Confederate presence in Kentucky is strong in Wrapped in Flames and thus given what you've said the state will most likely defect from the Union, Maryland might potentially be partitioned into two a la West Virginia and Missouri is unlikely to join barring a miracle or unexpected swing in sentiments.

That could be the way of sorting out the west Virginia secession. The confederates recognise the partition of Virginia into Confederate Virginia and Union West Virginia in return for Union recognition of Maryland being partitioned into two states, one Confederate and the other Union.

It would all be held under plebiscite of course.

Then Kentucky goes to the confederacy and Missouri to the union which then gives both sides two states each. Or perhaps they also both have plebiscites on partition into two states.
 
British support means that the Confederates have a better chance of winning. The window for Confederate victory is small and specific periods in 1861-1862 such as after Bull Run in July 1861 and after the Trent Affair/before Fort Henry and Fort Donelson in January 1862, after the Seven Days in July 1862 and before Antietam and Perryville in September 1862 and to a lesser extent after Fredericksburg in January 1863 give them opportunities to win the Civil War as in outlast the Union in specific battles long enough for foreign recognition to come especially the former two. If you take the Civil War and have it happen in say 1853-1855 (Henry Clay dies of tuberculosis much earlier than OTL and thus no Compromise of 1850 which leads to the United States fires upon Texas for attempting to seize half of New Mexico) then the Confederate States has a better chance of winning since some of the stuff the United States developed would not exist like the extensive railroads and ironclad ships granted there is still a disparity in terms of population and industry but it's lessened here and I have a timeline called Arrival of the Crisis that focuses on this very idea. The Confederate presence in Kentucky is strong in Wrapped in Flames and thus given what you've said the state will most likely defect from the Union, Maryland might potentially be partitioned into two a la West Virginia and Missouri is unlikely to join barring a miracle or unexpected swing in sentiments.

Oh there's definitely scenarios where the Confederates can win without direct foreign intervention like seen here in Wrapped in Flames, but they are certainly few and far between. The Shattered Nation novels do a good job of getting us to an 1864 version of that, and I highly recommend them. Personally I agree with you that an earlier civil war is basically a shoe in for the South to secede as it is far, far less of a disparity between the two sections.

I think Maryland is kind of an exception though. The government in Washington has a huge reason to hang on doggedly to Maryland, if not for strategic reasons than simply for matters of national pride. The Confederates would have to win big for Maryland to ever be on the chopping block at the peace negotiations.
 
at first i thought i wouldn't like this TL becasue the entire premise hurts but it's very well interesting from what I've read so far and seems to be avoiding cliches of more succesfull south TLs.the UK US emity is kinda of a cliche but its portrayed well here .

.althrough i have to ask is the mexican french war still going on? cause that would mean all of north america is basically screwed.
 
at first i thought i wouldn't like this TL becasue the entire premise hurts but it's very well interesting from what I've read so far and seems to be avoiding cliches of more succesfull south TLs.the UK US emity is kinda of a cliche but its portrayed well here .

.althrough i have to ask is the mexican french war still going on? cause that would mean all of north america is basically screwed.

Define "screwed". Mexico was just as chaotic after the French left as when they were there.
 
Define "screwed". Mexico was just as chaotic after the French left as when they were there.
true but now canada and the US will have bad relations as well and the US probably won't be able to kick out the french.so now you have an Angry US surrounded by nations and governments it doesn't like not a very good fourmla for prosperity.
 
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