Wrapped in Flames: The Great American War and Beyond

[EnglishCanuck]

Would it be possible to get a world map to see all the differences so far?

Alas I've been plinking away at one for 1866, but just haven't found the time to finish. I'm using a different laptop which doesn't run the same programs now, so I'm trying map making from scratch.

I may dig out the old dinosaur which had many of my tentative maps and make one, but I'm going to design one for 1866 and 1872 so people can get a good look at the world. Eventually...

Without Bismark you lose one of the main agitators for the Franco-Prussian war and with the 4 wars of German Unification you could just see France in the background just eating popcorn while their main potential rivals on the mainland just beat each other up.

So the first was seen as happening in 1848, this is the second in 1866. The next two will take place in the next decades (so before 1950 if that helps). But I think France can't not help itself by getting involved. A stronger Prussia, which the North German Confederation definitely is, is something no French state wants. Couple that with an Austria who will probably be more belligerent, and you have a recipe for disaster at some further point in the 19th century which may or may not lead to some even further disaster in the 20th!

With Italy losing the war and Prussia not growing in strength would the French be more willing to defend the Papal States?

On that you can definitely count. Keeping the support of both the clergy and the Catholics of France as a counter balance to the liberal politicians is going to be a must going forward, and not just because the Empress was partial to ultramonte politics. So the temporal power of the Pope is going to endure well beyond 1870.

Having Four Wars of German Unification is something I did not expect along with Bismarck, Moltke, and Wilhelm dying. Is one of the four wars going to happen in the Great War? Given the next 50 years would likely not include the other two wars unless they happen so close to each other, I think that is likely. It brings up the question of what the sides are in the Great War, whether it is two alliances at war a series of alliances that are allied to each other and fighting all over the world, or a series of regional wars happening roughly around the same time and are collectively called the Great War by future historians and politicians (although that last one seems unlikely and way too messy to keep track of).

Given that you want to avoid 'Turtledoveism' and based on the 'What If' chapter, I guess that means the Confederacy will not participate in the Great War as they deal with massive internal problems.

There's some stage setting for later conflicts here in the 1860s we've seen already. The powers of Europe are going to be adopting massively different priorities in the coming decades. Some are going to put them at extreme odds with one another (and Asia is going to be a particular sticking point) while some will pursue alliances because they have no other choice.

Friedrich as king of Prussia could mean a future Germany becomes allied to Britain against an alliance between a stronger Austria and France in the Great War. Not sure about Italy but they could be pushed into the British camp. Not sure where Russia falls in here as they look to be focused on their Asian possessions.

I couldn't possibly say

I am not sure if two of Britain's economic and political rivals (the US and Germany) are knocked clean off the chessboard because of these setbacks. The first chapter did say the US would become a Great Power. It would likely be an economic hegemony in the Americas along with other nations like Argentina and Brazil (which I predict will be Great Powers) that Britain would also have to contend with. Germany can still be a significant contender in Europe although likely not against Britain if they are allied in the future against a stronger Austria.

As said upthread, both are still going to be major economic powers, with now slightly truncated goals for the future. The US between, oh, 1865 and 1890, is going to be more immediately concerned about what is happening at home and giving itself muscle and political stability. The rise of the New Men is going to really change up American politics and priorities.

Prussia through the reign of Friedrich is going to be thinking about things a little differently, as Friedrich was very anti-Bismarck so consider that an important factor. However, when he dies, Wilhelm brings in a whole new game. The 1890s will be big divergences all around the world.

Lastly, for a Year in Review about things happening around the world, there are still no notable changes in Africa although I'm sure the different history of Germany means that at least there will be no German Togoland and Kamerun. There's barely anything about the Ottomans other than suppressing a revolt and alienating some parts of Europe but I guess that would be for the 1870s.

Nothing earth shaking in Africa yet I'm afraid. My own knowledge of what could change is rather limited, and will probably keep the big changes for the next three decades I'm afraid.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

That will make things very interesting, some sources indicate that as Nicholas was being actively prepared for the throne, he was much better educated than OTL AIII. And hooray for a Confederacy screw!

He seems to have been. As I understand it before he died he was being prepared by his father to be a bit more of a liberal monarch in his mold, and probably wouldn't have had the knee jerk conservative ideas of his brother had he lived longer. Here of course, he's been shown that liberal intentions don't save you from the assassins bullet. But he has a ways to go before he really begins setting his own policy.

Here for the South the rule is, the higher you go, the farther you fall.

 

[MonarchistCanuck]

Oh, I see EC decided to casually blow up Europe metaphorically, by blowing up Bismarck literally. Also we get to have Scar Nicholas as the Russian Czar while the South Americans decide to personally disabuse Spain of any notions they are still an Empire, instead of the Americans doing that in 1898. Didn't you say it was 1868 when things got interesting? lol

 

[Icedaemon]

Four wars of German unification does not necessarily mean that Germany ends up totally united in the end. Even wars between say Prussia and Hannover for the former to absorb the latter would be a war of German unification after all. A Germany where the split between religious lines becomes more and more cemented might lead to this split being seen as the norm, complete with high and low German eventually being seen as distinct languages.

If China manages to consolidate under the new Han-led regime, they might be a player in this timeline's First World war.

Hopefully, Pedro II retains his crown in this timeline. Have there been any interactions between him and Maximilian yet?

 

[EnglishCanuck]

Oh, I see EC decided to casually blow up Europe metaphorically, by blowing up Bismarck literally. Also we get to have Scar Nicholas as the Russian Czar while the South Americans decide to personally disabuse Spain of any notions they are still an Empire, instead of the Americans doing that in 1898. Didn't you say it was 1868 when things got interesting? lol

Oh boy did I decide to go all out in 1866! While I felt the snowball effect would be good, I'm happy with how much it seems to have caught people off guard! Glad it can be exciting!

Well, 1868 will still be where things get interesting politically, especially more for the United States. But oh boy will more keep happening! 1867 is set to be another explosive year as I write The Emergency of 1867.

Four wars of German unification does not necessarily mean that Germany ends up totally united in the end. Even wars between say Prussia and Hannover for the former to absorb the latter would be a war of German unification after all. A Germany where the split between religious lines becomes more and more cemented might lead to this split being seen as the norm, complete with high and low German eventually being seen as distinct languages.

Hmm now there's an idea!

If China manages to consolidate under the new Han-led regime, they might be a player in this timeline's First World war.

In truth, almost anything is better than what the Qing did between 1860 and 1912. That was a disaster for China that has had implications reaching well into the 21st century!

Hopefully, Pedro II retains his crown in this timeline. Have there been any interactions between him and Maximilian yet?

Oh those two gentlemen will indeed become pen pals! In fact I'm having difficulty choosing whether to use an in universe title of a book called The Pen Pals on them or some other equally impactful pair.

 

[Nenshou Yuuki]

Alright I just watched a video on Luxembourg, turns out Napoleon offered the King of the Netherlands a large amount of cash to purchase Luxembourg in 1867, and one of the main opponents and reasons the sale didn't go through, was Otto Von Bismark, who is now dead. We could easily see that purchase go through ITTL what with Frederick being busy stabilizing the NGC and Bismarks successor might not be as antagonistic or aggressive.

 

[DarkAvenger]

Interesting, but Luxembourg does not share a land border with the Netherlands. Would that be a factor in the sale? I'm asking out of curiosity.

 

[IndefatigableRN]

Interesting, but Luxembourg does not share a land border with the Netherlands. Would that be a factor in the sale? I'm asking out of curiosity.

I believe the Duchy of Luxembourg was part of the United Kingdom of the Netherlands post 1815 and remained in a personal union post Belgian independence. Suspect the lack of a land border was key (and maybe also given it wasn’t Dutch speaking).

 

[SultanArda]

I believe the Duchy of Luxembourg was part of the United Kingdom of the Netherlands post 1815 and remained in a personal union post Belgian independence. Suspect the lack of a land border was key (and maybe also given it wasn’t Dutch speaking).

And I think Luxembourg was mainly used as a personal playground of William III, who was a very reactionary and absolutist leader who was unable to do much in the Netherlands due to his father giving away much of his royal powers before his death.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

Alright I just watched a video on Luxembourg, turns out Napoleon offered the King of the Netherlands a large amount of cash to purchase Luxembourg in 1867, and one of the main opponents and reasons the sale didn't go through, was Otto Von Bismark, who is now dead. We could easily see that purchase go through ITTL what with Frederick being busy stabilizing the NGC and Bismarks successor might not be as antagonistic or aggressive.

OTL the Luxembourg Crisis was brought about by Bismarck's brinkmanship, but in a TL where Prussia was just slightly humbled and France is still looking powerful, you can expect Napoleon III to flex his muscles on the continent a little more.

Bismarck's successor here is Albrecht von Roon, both as a respected soldier but also because the Friedrich put an emergency government in charge that revolved around immediately close people he trusted. Roon is making simply making sure that the Parliament doesn't backslide on army reform and that there's no immediate geopolitical consequences from the Prussian disaster of 1866. How long this working relationship between a soldier statesman and a king who never liked war (and has even less reason to like it with his father having been blown to smithereens on the battlefield) remains to be seen.

Interesting, but Luxembourg does not share a land border with the Netherlands. Would that be a factor in the sale? I'm asking out of curiosity.

I believe the Duchy of Luxembourg was part of the United Kingdom of the Netherlands post 1815 and remained in a personal union post Belgian independence. Suspect the lack of a land border was key (and maybe also given it wasn’t Dutch speaking).

And I think Luxembourg was mainly used as a personal playground of William III, who was a very reactionary and absolutist leader who was unable to do much in the Netherlands due to his father giving away much of his royal powers before his death.

It was originally a part of the Kingdom of the Netherlands and IIRC a personal fief of William III. He was terrible with his money and offered to sell it to the French for no more reason than to balance his personal budget. The same pressures apply here, so this will be one interesting aspect of 1867 that also goes ahead.

 

[245]

What's happening to Jamacia and the Bahamas?

Also, I wonder with a successful CSA that Brazil dose not create a law for free birth?

 

[EnglishCanuck]

What's happening to Jamacia and the Bahamas?

The Morant Bay Rebellion of OTL did shake Jamaica, but with a more robust fear that slavery was meant to be re-instated on the island because of the Confederacy right next door. Though both colonies are slightly richer from the war, no smuggling that boosted the economy, but free trade and being ports of call for British warships with captured American ships or blockade runners made for a very lucrative wartime economy. Alas, it does not last.

Also, I wonder with a successful CSA that Brazil dose not create a law for free birth?

The Royal Family still abhor slavery, so expect some subtle pushback on the institution at least.

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

The Royal Family still abhor slavery, so expect some subtle pushback on the institution at least.

Honestly as long as the law of the free womb is still around, it will Brazil to not only phase out slavery in a few generations but will also give ample time for the former enslaved to settle themselves in their newfound freedom and manage to find good opportunities instead of simply being freed and having the government not take any measures to help them establish themselves. In the case of Pedro II and his successors still ruling the country, they're likely to make efforts to properly assimilate the growing influx of free people into the economy and society.

 

[Rufus]

Four wars of German unification does not necessarily mean that Germany ends up totally united in the end. Even wars between say Prussia and Hannover for the former to absorb the latter would be a war of German unification after all. A Germany where the split between religious lines becomes more and more cemented might lead to this split being seen as the norm, complete with high and low German eventually being seen as distinct languages.

I don’t see religion leading to a huge divide between the various German states. IOTL, the only places in Europe post 1848 where the divide between different Christian denominations led to conflict were places where religion overlapped with ethnic identity, places like Ireland or the Balkans, for example. I simply can’t see a scenario with a PoD as late as 1861 where Germans are at each other’s throat due to the Protestant/Catholic divide. Not to mention that there’s no clean north/south divide in Germany in this regard; Prussia has a significant catholic population in the Rheinland for example, while there are several southern German states with large protestant populations (especially Württemberg and Bavaria). And religion is only gonna lose importance from here on out; this is the 19th century after all, the century of Marx and Nietzsche.

And German unification was a popular idea among the wider population; if it fails, then for political reasons, not because of religion. But I like the idea of Germany unifying 50 years or so later, maybe at the end of a WW1 equivalent. The idea of a new great power suddenly appearing in the middle of Europe in the 20th century sounds like it could be pretty interesting.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

Honestly as long as the law of the free womb is still around, it will Brazil to not only phase out slavery in a few generations but will also give ample time for the former enslaved to settle themselves in their newfound freedom and manage to find good opportunities instead of simply being freed and having the government not take any measures to help them establish themselves. In the case of Pedro II and his successors still ruling the country, they're likely to make efforts to properly assimilate the growing influx of free people into the economy and society.

The War of the Triple Alliance, as brutal as it remains, will have a twist in fate here that means some of the social pressure that was heaped on Brazil post-1870 won't be as severe either. I can't see the Law of the Free Womb not passing under similar auspices in WiF (unless someone can make a compelling claim otherwise) so that the slow grind towards abolition takes place as we expect.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

I don’t see religion leading to a huge divide between the various German states. IOTL, the only places in Europe post 1848 where the divide between different Christian denominations led to conflict were places where religion overlapped with ethnic identity, places like Ireland or the Balkans, for example. I simply can’t see a scenario with a PoD as late as 1861 where Germans are at each other’s throat due to the Protestant/Catholic divide. Not to mention that there’s no clean north/south divide in Germany in this regard; Prussia has a significant catholic population in the Rheinland for example, while there are several southern German states with large protestant populations (especially Württemberg and Bavaria).

It will be more of a cultural perception here. Without Bismarck to try his Kulturkampf, there will still be an undercurrent of anti-Catholic bigotry in the North German Confederation, but one pushed more by demagogic politicians opposing "Habsburg Popery" as a rallying cry against the Austrians in later years - and to another extent, the French. That means that a lot of Prussians - and the newly absorbed German states - will feel like they are Protestant Germans first, with Catholic Germans being suspect. Not anything like the divide in Ireland, but let's just say Berlin will feud with the Pope more often than not going forward.

this is the 19th century after all, the century of Marx and Nietzsche.

Well, Marx, Proudhon, Blanqui and Kropotkin at least...

And German unification was a popular idea among the wider population; if it fails, then for political reasons, not because of religion. But I like the idea of Germany unifying 50 years or so later, maybe at the end of a WW1 equivalent. The idea of a new great power suddenly appearing in the middle of Europe in the 20th century sounds like it could be pretty interesting.

Pretty much that, yeah. The idea had been popular amongst liberal thinkers and philosophers for almost a century by 1870, gaining ground in 1848. However, there will indeed be a reason why it does take four wars of German Unification. Put mildly, an army plundering its way across your home is unlikely to reinforce your sense of nationalism. Then politically, the lesser monarchs watched their brethren in the north unseated or subordinated to Prussia, and they refuse to participate in that now that they had a taste of victory on the battlefield.

But you do raise an interesting point about a new power popping up in the 20th century!

 

[sarahz]

I don’t see religion leading to a huge divide between the various German states. IOTL, the only places in Europe post 1848 where the divide between different Christian denominations led to conflict were places where religion overlapped with ethnic identity, places like Ireland or the Balkans, for example. I simply can’t see a scenario with a PoD as late as 1861 where Germans are at each other’s throat due to the Protestant/Catholic divide. Not to mention that there’s no clean north/south divide in Germany in this regard; Prussia has a significant catholic population in the Rheinland for example, while there are several southern German states with large protestant populations (especially Württemberg and Bavaria). And religion is only gonna lose importance from here on out; this is the 19th century after all, the century of Marx and Nietzsche.

And German unification was a popular idea among the wider population; if it fails, then for political reasons, not because of religion. But I like the idea of Germany unifying 50 years or so later, maybe at the end of a WW1 equivalent. The idea of a new great power suddenly appearing in the middle of Europe in the 20th century sounds like it could be pretty interesting.

However pro and anti Catholic sentiments did have a large impact on domestic politics both in Germany and indeed in the Netherlands well into the 20th century otl

 

[245]

I wonder with the South gone, that the political machines of the north like Tammy Hall will be more powerful and influential in this timeline? I also wonder if the Gilde Age is still going to happen, and if so, be worse and better than OTL?

What happening with Newfoundland and will it join Canada in the future? Has the Canadian Pacific Railway been made yet?

How different will Laborism and Unionims be in the USA and Confederacy?

 

[EnglishCanuck]

I wonder with the South gone, that the political machines of the north like Tammy Hall will be more powerful and influential in this timeline? I also wonder if the Gilde Age is still going to happen, and if so, be worse and better than OTL?

The political machines like Tammany Hall are still really powerful (though they're about to take a nose dive) and going forward regional machines will also be extremely powerful and influential. The future of machine politics is in the cities, but also on the West Coast.

As for the Gilded Age, well, sort of. The post antebellum period in the US is the "Era of Hard Feelings" describing all the nasty political fallout from the war and attendant economic dislocation. After that we will have what was roughly the US "Gilded Age" but known as something else due to very different circumstances. Similar economic themes, but with vastly different implications on American growth and politics. There's the Civil War period (roughly antebellum from 1849-1866 here) and the Era of Hard Feelings which starts in 1864 and ends in 18?? leading to what I'm calling the "Reorientation Era" which has to do with the Rise of the New Men in American politics.That will all roughly cover the period from 1861 - 1900 or so.

What happening with Newfoundland and will it join Canada in the future? Has the Canadian Pacific Railway been made yet?

Oh we shall see. The groundwork for the Canadian Pacific is being laid. First we have to get through the Crisis of 1867, the American 1868 Election, and the purchase of the Hudson's Bay Company territory in Rupert's Land. I have some dangling threads from the war still to address!

How different will Laborism and Unionims be in the USA and Confederacy?

Less so than you might think. Labor unions in the US are in their infancy, while there are really none (yet) in the Confederacy. As the workforce in the North grows that will change.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

However pro and anti Catholic sentiments did have a large impact on domestic politics both in Germany and indeed in the Netherlands well into the 20th century otl

And will continue in many parts of the world thanks to strange butterflies!