In short, I imagined that in TTL the UK refused to handover Hong Kong in 1997. This act triggered a series of events which ultimately ended in an armed conflict. China resorted to pressuring Hong Kong by cutting off water and food supplies, and threatened with a military invasion of the territory. Recognizing the escalating tensions, the United Nations and the international community intervened to mediate in the dispute, aiming to prevent a full-scale invasion and war. Subsequently, China and the UK entered into negotiations and reached an agreement to conduct a referendum, allowing the people of Hong Kong (and Macau) to determine their future status. Both nations pledged to respect the outcome of the referendum, regardless of the chosen option. In the spring of 1998, Hong Kong held the referendum presenting its citizens with three choices: joining China, maintaining ties with the UK, or opting for independence (a proposition introduced through UN mediation). The citizens of Hong Kong voted in favor of independence. Following this decision, Macau held a similar referendum in the summer of 1998, resulting in its choice for independence as well.