I would say that if included the invasion immediate aftermath mass deportation, local/regional conflicts and the seemingly nations civil/factions war that, letting aside the financial that the human cost of the Banpou invasion would, in scale, easily comparable with the Demographic one suffered by China. Though, without the far bigger population and resources that China counted for help to slowly recover from the Mongol invasion and conquest.
Sea of Blood, Sea of Ice--The Mongol Conquest of Japan
- Thread starter Arkenfolm
- Start date
Certainly is a popular opinion among many, challenged only by the concern of "how much are we getting paid for this?"
I think I'll do a placeholder of that first and then (maybe) replace it with the real map.
What helps is that casualties are unevenly spread. Western Japan (minus Kyushu) is pretty damaged, as is about half of Mutsu in the north and the Hokuriku, but the Kanto and a few nearby provinces is mostly untouched beside a large number of warrior nobles killed (and to a lesser degree, ashigaru peasants raised by their land steward for battle). Even the number of warrior noblemen/their ashigaru killed is only a small fraction of the population of those provinces.
There is also a strong argument to be made that Japanese demographics were so bad because order in the country--including economic order--broke down in the late Heian period and never really recovered despite economic growth and tech improvements (i.e. from China/Korea) in the mid-Kamakura era and centuries after due to the constant wars that started in 1331. Population growth was very slow, but usually recovered quickly from the constant wars. So it might not be total doom, but it's a huge amount of damage to the nation that will take decades to recover from, and there's still more conflict on the horizon.
Kinda hoping that the Kamakura civil war lets Hakata take over in full, putting them in better position to throw off the Mongols if/when the Yuan go to shit.
A longer-lasting Yuan would also be interesting though -- give Hakata a few decades or even a century of being in the Mongol orbit even without thr invasion continuing...
A longer-lasting Yuan would also be interesting though -- give Hakata a few decades or even a century of being in the Mongol orbit even without thr invasion continuing...
So it ends in a rather anticlimactic way. KoJ is no doubt pissed and would want to continue their wars. But all glory to the empress,enough is enough.
The shrewd Saionji has utterly fooled Nagaski and his faction. With the Shogun and a vast array of anti Hojou nobles at his side, I have to admire his rather placid actions which will no doubt, lead to another civil war.
The shrewd Saionji has utterly fooled Nagaski and his faction. With the Shogun and a vast array of anti Hojou nobles at his side, I have to admire his rather placid actions which will no doubt, lead to another civil war.
I'll post the temporary map of the political situation in 1305 I drew up tonight. It'll be a placeholder until I can finish the full map, which I promise will look a lot nicer and have more labels. There is also a map of the Ezo Shogunate/battles in Ezo during the third and fourth invasion which I meant to post earlier but forgot--I'll clean that one up and post it later this week.
Saionji does have one major problem regarding just who would agree to something as radical as "let this guy from the court interfere in the warrior government in such a dramatic way." It isn't like the average warrior noble supports the court (although their Shogun would certainly encourage it given he received the same Confucian education as OTL and that led to, well...). A plot like this can easily be unraveled, and above all, the warrior nobles want to win.
Hakata isn't in a good situation to exploit Kamakura's turmoil, since the Mongols won't really support them (due to having a truce and financial issues), they have their own inner rivalries with Shouni's faction vs Miura's faction, and they have to rebuild Kyoto AND numerous temples and shrines that were torched. Having a bunch of angry peasant rebels/warrior monks/rogue samurai operating throughout much of your territory plus needing to transport supplies to the frontlines isn't conducive to gathering the materials necessary to rebuild the capital, so I'd assume 1301-1305 were fairly unproductive years. For them, it's better to sit back and watch their enemy self-destruct before going in for the final blow.
Let's just say the butterflies are already having quite an impact. I have a draft of a chapter prepared regarding that, but that'll be in a few weeks.
Oh yes, nobody gets what they want from it. Which I guess is a running theme given the second invasion ended with both sides getting distracted elsewhere and the violence settling down and the third invasion ended because Kublai Khan died.
Saionji does have one major problem regarding just who would agree to something as radical as "let this guy from the court interfere in the warrior government in such a dramatic way." It isn't like the average warrior noble supports the court (although their Shogun would certainly encourage it given he received the same Confucian education as OTL and that led to, well...). A plot like this can easily be unraveled, and above all, the warrior nobles want to win.
Or perhaps it will, but with far, far different lyrics. Who knows?
Ah, but if it's not a triumphant "we kept the Mongols out" kind of song called "Genkou", is it really the same song?
Here is the temporary map of the situation in 1305. I will not add a new threadmark since I'd rather wait until I have finished the full map. Happy New Years!
EDIT: Corrected a serious error (displayed Mino Province as Kingdom of Japan-ruled rather than Kamakura Shogunate-ruled)
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A quite punny city, although I imagine anyone from there has heard every single joke related to it. IIRC that's part of how the city markets itself.
If you are curious, "Nuotie" is the Mandarin reading of the Ainu name for Cape Souya "Notetu" as filtered through Middle Chinese (the Japanese name comes from an Ainu name for a nearby feature). It's probably a fort akin to OTL Guohuo at Cape Crillon on Sakhalin and would help administer a mingghan (or so) worth of ethnic Jiliemi (Nivkh) soldiers who OTL lived in that part of Hokkaido in that era. Since both archaeology and Ainu oral history shows they vanished, they probably were on bad terms with the local Ainu and as this TL presents very, very early on, may have been persuaded to submit to the Mongols as other Jiliemi/Nivkh did.
But "wakarimasen" is a good answer, since who's actually doing surveys in a frontier zone like this? One wrong step and you walk into the infamous Ainu crossbow traps (with poison arrows) or end up bear food.
I guess we are seeing the endurance of some groups ITTL than didn't make it OTL. Hokkaido might well be unrecognizable compared to ITTL.
More Ainu survival, at least until Japan gets their shit together. We have a long way till 16th century
I'm particularly interested in the long-term impact the Yuan leave on the island. Things will definitely look quite different in the long-term.
Personally I wonder if the muslims and russians will japanise over time.I wonder if Islam and Orthodox Christianity would try to convert the japanese population.Still I hope that Ainu are more succesful in this TL.
Tomorrrow I should have the actual finished map out to replace the hastily made one here. I will probably put out the next chapter next week.
There is also the matter of the Nivkh in the north of the island who are direct Mongol vassals. Not much is known about them other than they were conquered and assimilated by the Ainu and are probably the origin of the iomante ritual (bear sacrifice ceremony). Nivkh is actually a small language family, and they probably spoke either a distinct Nivkh language or a distinct variety of South Sakhalin Nivkh (sometimes called "Nighvng").
One group of Ainu, the Hinomoto clan (totally ATL), are quite important within the Ezo Shogunate although given their embrace of Buddhism and Japanese cultural elements, might not be quite what you're looking for.
Oh, it definitely will be unrecognisable since the Ainu get a shot in the arm economically in terms of earlier trade with Japan, and for the Ainu in the northeast of the island, it's on far more equal terms than OTL since they only have marginal connection to Japan despite the increase in trade.
There is also the matter of the Nivkh in the north of the island who are direct Mongol vassals. Not much is known about them other than they were conquered and assimilated by the Ainu and are probably the origin of the iomante ritual (bear sacrifice ceremony). Nivkh is actually a small language family, and they probably spoke either a distinct Nivkh language or a distinct variety of South Sakhalin Nivkh (sometimes called "Nighvng").
Technically less Ainu survival, given parts of the island are already Japanese territory (or directly ruled by the Mongols) and 200K-plus Japanese (and some Chinese, Korean, Jurchen, etc.) live there. I used the OTL terms "Wajinchi" and "Ezochi" to designate it, and all land designated Wajinchi would be under Japanese law meaning the Ainu have to conform their way of life to the Japanese way of life. Ezochi is of course Ainu traditional law, but they still have to pay tribute and accept Japanese (and ultimately Yuan) trade policy. But it would be more free than the OTL Edo period Ainu were, like the authorities wouldn't be tearing up a rice field because the people who planted it were Ainu. Ironically, having less legal and social distinctions between Japanese and Ainu may well make them easier to assimilate (as happened in Honshu).
Let's just say the impact is quite large and even if its ruled by Japan, it will be quite alien. Thanks to the needs of the war, the island is a melting pot of the cultures around the Sea of Japan.
I'm sure there are Muslims and Christians in Japan TTL who have tried to convert the natives, but they wouldn't have much success since they're seen as foreign elements. The former are also linked to hated foreign merchants who are widely believed to cheat the local population, not to mention many of both groups serve as darughachi and are thus a constant source of tensions.
One group of Ainu, the Hinomoto clan (totally ATL), are quite important within the Ezo Shogunate although given their embrace of Buddhism and Japanese cultural elements, might not be quite what you're looking for.
Map 3-Japan After the Banpou Invasion
As promised, here is the detailed map of Japan (and the Ryukyu Kingdom) in 1305 immediately after the Fourth Mongol Invasion (Banpou Invasion). Provinces and cities are noted on the map, although it should be noted that outside of a few exceptions (Kyoto, Kamakura, Hakata, Sakai, etc.), most of these cities would not have had more than 2-3K people. Of course, in 1305 most of these cities likely have far fewer people (if any) due to the Mongol Invasions.
Now that I have finished a very good map of medieval Japan, I can do a variety of maps. I may do one with decisive battles in the Mongol invasions, and I will also do one charting the population decline in Japan due to the destruction of the war.
With the amount of resources the Yuan poured into the war, it's probably not worth their while. The whole invasion is just an exercise in ego, with nothing else to show for. When all else is said and done, everyone will just be worse off, except the Yuan's rival khanates and enemies on the mainland.
Except if comparing with the Majapahit ordeal of OTL, this is far better. Ofc our ITTL mongols don't know that, so let them wallow over their wasted resources