An island, which at seven knots, is only a day and a half away from Busan. It's not like the Joseon are invading Hokkaido or the Philippines.
Nobunaga’s Ambition Realized: Dawn of a New Rising Sun
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that is true, but Japan should have had fleets for this scenario, especially when they were fighting over Manchuria in general...
It's been stated that Japan's scattered all over due to having more commitments. The Korean fleet basically only exists to hurt Japan, so they can concentrate it.
Having this much commitments means nothing when your enemies can sail to your home islands and blockade your trade routes.
I think this war would make Japan a lot more focused on keeping their fleets in the home islands afterwards when they're fighting Joseon or other Asian powers powerful enough to field fleets comparable to theirs, especially those who're affiliated with the Joseon.
And now Japan knows that. For the past two generations, the whole ocean was theirs because the Ming and Joseon had their heads in the sand.
I foresee a massive naval build up and centralisation of its navies after the war on Japan’s part, a “Home Fleet” and a “Commerce Fleet” if you will.
The thing with the Japan of the OTL 1500s is navies were never really a major factor in Japanese warfare as a whole. For one only a few clans had a dedicated navy, and they had to subsist by providing services that most clans really didn't have the time or money to provide themselves. On top of that most Japanese naval battles happened in bays or the Seto inland sea, not deep waters, and most Japanese ships were made for deep water.
Japan making a decent navy has to fight those uphill battles. First and foremost if nothing really changes with the Japanese feudal system on the organizations, that means the closest thing to a navy is a bunch of clans with the resources to go raise ships, and their ability to operate is going to be limited. Second centralizing in Japan requires upending or deeply curtailing the feudal system and somehow expanding the power of the ruling family in ways that can't rely too much on allies, and that I feel always requires violence as far as Japan goes.
Also given the technology I feel it's entirely possible for a sneak attack to occur this is the mid-1600's and besides it doesn't matter too much if it is a little unbelievable as long as it serves a decent story purpose.
yeah, I hope the Japanese learn that the home islands are quite vulnerable especially if they're attacked by the Joseon, since the two nations are quite close together...
I think the Japanese would attempt to prevent Joseon from building a navy after the war to prevent this from ever happening again. As ppl have said taking Jeju island and keeping a fleet at Jeju and Tsushima islands when fighting the Joseon wold be paramount.
thing is we know they have a good navy, the fought the Spanish and the Portugese, which were still very powerful during the 1600s.
That is very true. I just didn't think the Japanese didn't think of the Joseon attempting to attack them at sea at all... It's hubris if anything.
Long-range artillery, at least. Harder to build a fort, but much easier to maintain (and harder to sink) it than a fleet over the long run.
I think the Joseon focusing on artillery and missile tech would be for the best for them, they don't exactly need to blockade Japan to be a nuisance, but a fleet focused on harassing Japan (like they're doing right now really).
The REAL question is why would the Russians stop there, no matter the external opposition. Access to the Pacific is a big deal, even in cold water ports. Even if the East Asian powers are able to exclude Russia indefinitely, what's to stop them from trying to access the Pacific forcefully (albeit unsuccessfully) for the next two centuries.
Again, logistics - every single Russian government has been notoriously bad at it.
The East Asian powers are simply going to be able to put troops and supplies on the ground faster than a Moscow-centric state; the longer Japan gets to modernize while holding onto Vladivostok, the bigger the advantage gets.
I think an emphasis on what would be Vladivostok is trying to backport history in a really weird way, its importance as a local was under Russian control and that was because it served a few geo-political and geo-strategic needs when those a thing in the late 1800's early onwards. For Japan, it might make for a nice trading outpost for the Jurchens but its administration would be an issue if it's just going to be another fiefdom of some clan even if they do pay tribute, but this was an area that was to the local's nothing more than a port for ginseng thieves.
Even without Russian control over the Amur, there are still other areas where Russia can set up trading posts or even make places like what would OTL Magadan. Japan trying to shut out Russian expansion to the East would be both time-consuming and only really work if the logic was based on an EU 4 game, but that also runs into issues of administration practical, and political.
Even without Russian control over the Amur, there are still other areas where Russia can set up trading posts or even make places like what would OTL Magadan. Japan trying to shut out Russian expansion to the East would be both time-consuming and only really work if the logic was based on an EU 4 game, but that also runs into issues of administration practical, and political.
Be that as it may, which other warm-water harbour (that isn't under Amur/Japanese control) can the Russians take? Anything north of Vladivostok freezes shut most of the year.
Moscow won't bother with proper roads without a Pacific port... they can't get a Pacific port without an army... and they can't get an army to the Far East without proper roads. Granted, doing so anyway wouldn’t be the stupidest attack plan to ever come from the Kremlin, but it would sure be in the top ten.
Moscow won't bother with proper roads without a Pacific port... they can't get a Pacific port without an army... and they can't get an army to the Far East without proper roads. Granted, doing so anyway wouldn’t be the stupidest attack plan to ever come from the Kremlin, but it would sure be in the top ten.
Vladivostok is way too close to either Joseon or Japan. Russia will never have it and without it and with Japan taking the rest of the Sea of Okhotsk coast, I can't see them focusing all that much on Siberia. No real incentive.
I think the only way for Russia to expand into East Asia is by taking advantage of a future implosion of Ming China into a bunch of warring states. However this would still run into the usual problems of logistics etc. plus Azuchi and Hanseong getting incredibly nervous about Russian encroachment into China.
I wonder, in the case of Chinese implosion and another round of warlordism, would the Lesser Jin and Joseon take advantage of the situation to expand their territory and/or influence?
I wonder, in the case of Chinese implosion and another round of warlordism, would the Lesser Jin and Joseon take advantage of the situation to expand their territory and/or influence?
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They'll likely try to make a sphere of influence there at the very least and — in the case of the Mongols and the Lesser Jin — try realising the feat of the OTL Later Jin Dynasty in taking over the entire thing. Russia is certainly going to play-off the three Nothern Asian states against each other to take advantage and pull fast ones on them — maybe attempt to make them submit as well.
Japan and Korea are both advanced enough — capitalistic as well for the former — that it is likely for them to force and even buy concessions and treat it as private landholdings, all while still being nominally territories of China and its provinces.
Russia did not have Vladivostok OTL during the conquest of Siberia. They were ejected by China from most of the Amur watershed, and they gave up that area to China by the Treaty of Nerchinsk in 1689. It was not until 1858 that the Russians gained the Amur region, and in 1860 they gained the region down to Vladivostok.
tbf I think they'll do so for the fur and prevent raids from native groups/hetamanates.
OTL - because the Joseon and Japanese were isolationist and the Qing were going through a dark age. Since both the former are modernizing and expanding TTL, that outcome is much less of a guarantee.