Chaos TL: A world without Genghis Khan's conquests (finished!)

[Hermanubis]

Also 1402 Total defeat of the otomans by Tamerlan in the battle of Ankara, without mongols no Tamerlan, so is very possible that if the otomans make a similar way of appearition in this ATL he could get conquest Constantinople and the Balkans some decades sooner than in OTL.

No Ottomans; they came in the second wave of Turkish Migration fallowing the Mongols.

(In ATL there will probably be less Turks in Anatolia
Thus I’d suspect that the Second Byzantine Empire formed by Nicea might have a better chance of surviving here )

 

[Max Sinister]

Eastern Europe, 1200-1250

Eastern Europe, 1200-1250:

Early 13th century: OTL Mamluk sultan Baibars isn't captured by the Mongols, stays Kipchak.

1212: Vsevolod "The big nest" III. of Russia dies.

1219: Denmark conquers Estonia.

1221: Nishnij Novgorod founded.

1223: No Battle on the river Kalka. Kipchaks / Kumans / Polovtzy still rule the steppes in Southern Russia.

1225: Rum-Seljuks conquer Crimea.

1227: Teutonic Order comes into the Kulmer Land (East Prussia, west of the Vistula). Jaroslav of Novgorod attacks Finland.

1230: Livonia completely subjugated.

1236-40: Mongol attacks on Russia except Novgorod don't happen. The mightiest states at the moment are Novgorod, Vladimir-Suzdal, Chernigov and Halicz-Volhynia.

1237: Friar Julianus returns to the Volga Hungarians, starts to convert them to Christianity and tries to recruit them to settle in Hungary. A delegation of them visits Hungary proper and likes the idea of settling there. The Pope and Hungary support him, too.
Unification of the Teutonic Order and the Brotherhood of the Sword.
Volga Hungarians, Volga Bulgarians not defeated by Mongols.

1238: Russian prince Aleksandr Yaroslavich who's the fourth son of his father and has no real chance of ever becoming a ruler goes to Vladimir-Suzdal, who are often busy fighting the Volga Bulgarians.

1240s: Kara-Kitai tribes displaced by the Mongols under Ogadai defeat eastern Kipchaks, cross the lower Volga, attack the area south of Don and Volga and destroy the little country of the Alans, a leftover of the völkerwanderung.

1240: Russian prince Aleksandr doesn't have to defeat the Swedes at the Neva.

1241/42: The battle of Liegnitz (Legnica) doesn't happen, and neither does the savaging of Poland, Silesia, Moravia, Hungary (which lost half its population IOTL, according to some sources), Romania and Bulgaria by the Mongols. The Teutonic Order doesn't have to pay a high blood toll either.

1242: Aleksandr doesn't have to fight the Livonian knights on frozen Lake Peipus.

1243: King Bela IV. of Hungary conquers Bosnia.

1246: King Bela IV. of Hungary fights Austria, killing the last duke Friedrich II. His widow Margarete governs in his place. She and his niece Gertrud (wife of Vladislav of Moravia, elder brother of Otakar Przemysl) are the only living heirs.
Baibars who became a Kipchak leader defeats the Kara-Kitai, throws them back behind the Don. He now reigns in the biggest of the six Kuman cities, Sharukan (in OTL Charkov's place).

1247: The elder brother of Otakar Przemysl Vladislav doesn't die.

1250: German settlement has reached the Oder river, and even crossed it in some places, also including southern Silesia.

[post=553125]Read the story here...[/post]

 

[Stalker]

True, but for the Mongols, in this ATL, the miitary union between Swedes and Livonians is not likely to be concuded. Novgorod is too strong. However, if there's no desperate morning attack by 900 prince Alexander Yaroslavovich's foot soldiers (ratniks) on Swedish camp on the bank of the Neva-river, prince Alexander will never get his nickname Nevsky.
Still, as I earlier said, sooner or later, strong Novgorod may try his teeth on Livonia. Novgorod desperately needs stable trade ports in Baltic. It is not likely to want to quarrel with the Danes controlling the Strates to the North Sea because of Estonia, so Livonia looks like a sweet piece of pie. That's Novgorod's "Drang Nach Westen".

 

[Tizoc]

Well, it seems that in TTL there will be a sooner re-establishment of Kingdom of Poland - probably in late 1240's; the new Kingdom of Poland will take all Silesia and Lesser Poland and most of Greater Poland. It will be, however, prone to break up soon after the death of Henry II the Pious due to, say, disagreements between his sons; there will be a civil war at least...

1241/42: The battle of Liegnitz (Legnica) doesn't happen, and neither does the savaging of Poland, Silesia, Moravia, Hungary (which lost half its population IOTL, according to some sources), Romania and Bulgaria by the Mongols.

Out of curiosity: why did you mention Poland and Silesia separately? At that time Silesia was a part of Poland, y'know...

 

[Gladi]

Well, it seems that in TTL there will be a sooner re-establishment of Kingdom of Poland - probably in late 1240's; the new Kingdom of Poland will take all Silesia and Lesser Poland and most of Greater Poland. It will be, however, prone to break up soon after the death of Henry II the Pious due to, say, disagreements between his sons; there will be a civil war at least...

Out of curiosity: why did you mention Poland and Silesia separately? At that time Silesia was a part of Poland, y'know...

Bright day
Well it was rather in flux. Not to mention Henry was getting a lot of support from his father-in-law Czech king Wenceslaus...



Hmm interesting what you have done there with Vladislav.

 

[Max Sinister]

@Stalker: Yes, he'll never become Alexandr Nevsky... I already wrote that he goes to Vladimir-Suzdal instead.

@Tizoc: No offense meant. Poland wasn't really united, and the population of Silesia was already half German in 1250, so it's pretty much between.

@Gladi: Yes indeed. The history of the Przemysls will be pretty different. More in the next installment.

 

[Tizoc]

@Tizoc: No offense meant. Poland wasn't really united, and the population of Silesia was already half German in 1250, so it's pretty much between.

Henry the Pious' capital was in Leignitz (Legnica), and if he wasn't a Polish prince then I don't know which country he was coming from... And besides, Silesia was a part of Poland till 1327, I believe; and that "Silesia was already half German in 1250" has no semblance to truth - yet, anyway - it was becoming true only in XVth century, I think

 

[Gladi]

Henry the Pious' capital was in Leignitz (Legnica), and if he wasn't a Polish prince then I don't know which country he was coming from... And besides, Silesia was a part of Poland till 1327, I believe; and that "Silesia was already half German in 1250" has no semblance to truth - yet, anyway - it was becoming true only in XVth century, I think

Bright day
But the centrifugal forces were there already. Only in two generation the whole region will pass to Bohemia, not by force or arms, but by will of landed gentry. And AFAIK end of 14th start of 15th centuries was germanization peak in region before 30-years War.

 

[Max Sinister]

Western Europe, 1250-1300

Western Europe, 1250-1300:

(Note that other than in the first installments, I draw the border between W and E Europe not along the Iron Curtain, but along the border between Catholics and Orthodox.)

Since 1240: Christianized Volga Hungarians settle down in Hungary proper, mostly in the Banat (western Vlachia). Vlachia and Moldavia become Hungarian sphere of influence.
Fewer German settlers go to Poland (except Pomerania and Silesia), Hungary, Romania or Bulgaria. Instead, they press into Pomerania, East Prussia and (later) the Baltic.
Silesia north of Oder river becomes an area similar to OTL Kashubia during the next centuries, with a population of mixed German-Slavic culture.

1247-64: Hessian-Thuringian war of succession. Sophie of Brabant (who's supported by the Teutonic Knights) makes sure that Hesse stays independent and goes to her son Heinrich "the Child". ITTL he even gets a slightly bigger share, at the expense of Thuringia.

1251: Prince Vladislav of Bohemia has a son, later king Venceslaus / Vaclav II.

1252: Pope Innocence IV allows the inquisition to use torture to get confessions.

1253: Lithuanian leader Mindaugas christened. King Venceslaus / Vaclav I. of Bohemia dies. Vladislav inherits Bohemia, and also reigns Austria. Otakar Przemysl only gets Moravia. Genua acquires Safi in Morocco.
Heinrich / Henryk II the Pious of Silesia, who already rules in Greater and Lesser Poland, is crowned king of Poland, first one since 1079. Although many Piast princes continue to reign in other parts of Poland, his family can keep the king's title.

1254: Hungary "divides" Styria with young king Venceslaus / Vaclav II. Hungary gets the better part, only a few border cities become Austrian.
In the German princedom of Nassau, Count Otto I is killed after getting in trouble with the Teutonic knights. His brother Walram II gets all of Nassau.

1254-1273: Interregnum in the HRE.

1255: Vladislav of Bohemia dies. His little son inherits Bohemia, and Austria. Otakar Przemysl administrates his lands until his adulthood.
Bavaria divided: Lower Bavaria goes to Heinrich XIII, Upper Bavaria and the Palatinate to Ludwig II.
Otakar tries to improve the situation in Styria, wages war against Hungary, but is defeated. In the next few years, he has to suppress Bohemian and Austrian nobles discontent with his rule. He becomes a bit more humble and more pragmatic in the future, looks for new allies, makes peace with the Bavarian dukes and marries Sophie of Wittelsbach.
Teutonic Order founds Herzogsberg (named after Ottokar) at the site of OTL Königsberg. Hungarian prince Stephen / Istvan marries a princess of the Volga Hungarians.

1256: Holy Roman king Wilhelm of Holland dies. Portugal's capital moved to Lissabon.

1257: Alfonso of Castille and Richard of Cornwall elected Holy Roman kings. Otakar Przemysl goes to Prussia, helps to suppress a big uprising of the Prussians.

1258-65: Uprisings of the barons in England. The king has to accept the Oxford Provisions.

1259: First German trading alliance (Lübeck, Hamburg, Rostock, Wismar), which will later develop into the Hanse.
England loses all possessions in France but Guyenne.

1260: Saxony divided into the lines of Saxony-Wittenberg and Saxony-Lauenburg.
Prussians subjugated. Western Farther Pomerania and parts of East Prussia are already settled.
After the Mamluks took some cities in Palestine, a new crusade is planned. But since Charles of Anjou has other plans, it has to be postponed. At first, France has to recover from the war with England; then, the pope gives Charles of Anjou the kingdom of Naples, which is more important...

1261: Otakar has a son, called Heinrich.

1261/62/64: Greenland, Iceland become Norwegian.

1262: Hungarian prince Stephen rebels against his father, practically gets his own kingdom in Eastern Hungary.

1263: Lithuanian leader Mindaugas murdered by his own people, who become pagan again. The stronger settlement of Germans in Prussia makes them feel threatened. Although they could probably quite successful if they hid in their dense forests, they dare to leave them and attack the Teutonic knights on their turf. This only leads to their defeat.

1266: Scotland buys the Hebrides from Norway. Charles of Anjou comes to power in Naples-Sicily after defeating and killing regent Manfred. King Henryk of Poland dies, to be succeeded by his son (also called Henryk).

1268: Childless duke Ulrich III of Carinthia and Carniole makes a secret contract with Otakar Przemysl, that the latter one will inherit his lands after his death (which comes next year). Konradin, last descendant of Friedrich II, killed by Charles of Anjou.

1269: Last uprising of the Prussians defeated.

1270: Germans settle everywhere in Pomerania, and in half of East Prussia. Settlement in the Baltic extended. Teutonic knights decide to subjugate the Lithuanians too. King Bela IV of Hungary dies. French start Seventh crusade against Tunis (Palestine was planned, but Charles thinks Tunis is better - it's certainly closer to his new lands in Italy), which ends in a defeat and king Louis IX's death.

~1270: First portolan charts (maps for sea travel).

1271: French kings inherit Toulouse. Gregor X. elected pope.

1272: King Stephen of Hungary dies, to be succeeded by Ladislaus / Laszlo IV.

1273: After the death of HRE king Richard and the forced abdication of Alfonso the HRE has to elect a new king. Among the candidates are the French king Philippe III. and Otakar Przemysl of Moravia and Carinthia. ITTL, he isn't absent from the election and can influence it better. The other princes also consider him less dangerous since his nephew reigns independent from him. Since his nephew, the elector of Bohemia, votes for him, the Upper Bavarian duke Ludwig II and the three archbishops support him too, he is elected king Ottokar I of the HRE.

1275: Emperor Ottokar leads the Empire against Hungary, defeats the new king and gets Styria back for the HRE. Styria is divided: Western Styria becomes part of Austria (thus connecting the Przemysls' possessions), the rest (two thirds) go to (Upper) Bavaria.

1276: Philippe III of France fights Castille for reasons of succession, without success.

1276 or 1290: Marsilius of Padua born.

1277: Zemgale and Samogitia conquered by the Teutonic knights. Despite the dangerous situation in the crusader cities, Charles of Anjou conquers them and makes himself king of Jerusalem.

1280: German settlement everywhere through Danzig and East Prussia.

1281: Teutonic Order moves from Akko to Venice.

1282: Sicilian vespers. All French on the island killed, Sicily becomes part of Aragon. Magna Charta in Denmark.

1284: Wales annexed by England. Genua defeats Pisa, acquires Corsica, Elba and Sardinia.

1285: William of Ockham born. Aragonese crusade as revenge for Sicilian vespers, with no success.

1286: The "maid of Norway" doesn't drown, arrives in Scotland. Otakar Przemysl dies. The two Przemyslid heirs, Wenzel / Vaclav and Heinrich are still too unexperienced to play an important role in the HRE, which the other princes don't exactly dislike. Rudolf of Habsburg elected new king.

1287: Great flood swallows lots of lands in the Netherlands, creating the Zuider Zee, which makes it possible for Amsterdam to become an important harbor later.

1288: Gotland becomes Swedish.

1289: Lithuania subjugated and administered by the Teutonic knights. (Sorry, legolas!) Later becomes the province of Littauen. At the moment, however, the Teutonic knights are mostly restricted to the valley of Memel / Nyemen river.

1290: Jews evicted from England. In Scotland, the young queen (nine years) dies. King Edward I of England interferes for the succession, Balliol becomes new king. Andras III becomes the last king of the Arpad dynasty in Hungary.

1291: Rudolf of Habsburg dies. The Ascanian Otto IV. of Brandenburg becomes new king of the HRE. The first three cantons of Switzerland make an anti-Habsburg alliance. Tarifa in Morocco conquered by Castille.

1294: Pope Coelestin V, a former eremite, elected, but resigns in the same year. His successor Boniface is quite the opposite of him.

1296: Auld Alliance between France and Scotland (everything happens one year later than OTL).

1297: King Philippe IV the Fair attacks Flanders. War between England and Scotland begins.

1298: Scottish uprisings under William Wallace.

1300: Another Lithuanian uprising defeated.

Meanwhile in America:
1299: Cocoxtli, ruler of Culhuacan, allows the Mexica / Aztecs to settle in Tizapan.

[post=556901]Read a little story here...[/post]

And here's an attachment showing Hungary and its sphere of influence at its height:

 

[Alcuin]

Poland will cease to exist completely in this TL divided between HRE of German Nation, Lithuania, Kingdom of Czechia and probably by Great Chernigov - but only if the latter will refuse the fight for the title of Great Knyaz because there can be only one vector for Chernigov's expansion - east or west.

If Lithuania exists, what is to prevent "king" Jadwiga (or her butterflied analogue) from marrying Archduke Jagiellon of Lithuania, as in our timeline, and forming Poland-Lithuania? I also don't see how the Kingdom of Czechia (I assume an expanded Bohemia) is likely to be that different to Poland. If a kingdom is established, with Czechs and Poles in it, is Malopolska really that less likely a centre (in the absence of Mongols) than Bohemia?

 

[Iñaki]

Good timeline Max.

I suppose:-black lines the same in OTL.

-Blue lines different than in OTL.

-Red lines explanation of the difference.

I am correct?

 

[Stalker]

1286: The "maid of Norway" doesn't drown, arrives in Scotland.

Good News! Alba-Britannia rules. Longshanks is killed at York, and William Walles is a Governor of London!
If Lithuania exists, what is to prevent "king" Jadwiga (or her butterflied analogue) from marrying Archduke Jagiellon of Lithuania, as in our timeline, and forming Poland-Lithuania?
Because Czechia-Bohemia is very srtong, and Poland is in stagnation, and Silesia is a sweet piece of pie to Bohemia. Any territorial acquisition of Polish lands may resut in chain reaction of agression from its neighbours. What can be taken by force of the arms should be taken - that simple medieval rule determines all subsequent actions. Galich has strong interests in Red Russ region (Holm-Helm, Pzemyszel, and would like to expand its influence further. After long and exhausting war with Bela, Daniel of Galich has now a very strong ally, having married his son Lev (Leo) to Bela's daughter, and giving him a wedding present - a whole city founded and named after Lev - Lvov. In a long run, Romanovichi dynasty of Galich is going to loose its position and be devoured by Lietuva (Lithuania) and Great Chernigov even in this ATL but what good will it do to Poland? Nothing!

 

[Hendryk]

Good news for the Song, then.

Indeed. With a bit of luck and the right people in charge, the Song could emerge the medium- to long-term winners of TTL.

 

[Condottiero]

Max,
Tarifa is not in Morocco.

 

[Max Sinister]

@Alcuin: At the moment, the Teutonic Knights hold Lithuania (in fact, the Lithuanians hide in the forests, and the knights only control the streets and the Memel valley, i.e. the place where OTL Lithuania's big cities (Vilnius, Kaunas, Memel) are), and unless someone has a heart for those pagans, which is very unlikely, they'll be christianized first and assimilated later over the centuries.
@Inaki: Thanks. No, with the colors it's like that: Red are things which happened IOTL but not ITTL, blue is exactly as OTL, and black is pure ATL.
@Stalker: Read the TL again - the maid of Norway died a few years later, so things happen similar, only a bit later.
@Hendryk: That's the big question, how China develops. Both Jin and Song China had to fight with various problems. Let's see. Second-last mistake wins the game.
@Condottiero: Right, sorry. It sounded too Arabic, but of course it's really in Andalusia.

 

[Max Sinister]

History of sub-Saharan Africa 1200-1300 (everything pretty much as OTL):

1203: Soumaoro Kante of the Sosso people occupies Koumbi Saleh, the old capital of Ghana (not today's Ghana, it was more around Mauretania / Mali).

1221-59: Reign of Dunama Dabbalemi of the Sayfawa dynasty in the Kanem Empire (present-day Chad). He expands his empire, initiates diplomatic exchanges with sultans in North Africa and arranges for the establishment of a special hostel in Cairo to facilitate pilgrimages to Mecca. Through his wars he captures many slaves that he sells to the northern kingdoms, so enriching his country. The empire's influence extends westward to Kano (in present-day Nigeria), eastward to Ouaddaï, and southward to the Adamawa grasslands (in present-day Cameroon).

1230s: Sosso's vassals start to rebel. Among them is Mali, rich thanks to gold and salt.

1240: Sundiata Keita of the Mandinka people defeats Sosso king Sumanguru Kante, the murderer of his father and eleven brothers, at the battle of Kirina. After that, he converts to Islam.

Following this victory, Sundiata expands his Empire to include most of the important parts of West Africa, including the towns of Walata, Tadmekka, and Gao at the southern end of the desert trade routes. The Mali Empire is made up of 3 allied states and 12 tributaries. The three states are Mali (which helds the capital of the Empire, Niani), Mema, and Wagadou, the former Ghana Empire. The 12 tributaries are referred to as the 12 doors of Mali to which only the Mansa (emperor) holds the key. They are Djebeda, Tabon, Negueboria, Kankigne, Togom, Sili, Krina, Koulikoro, Diaghan, Kita, Ka-ba, and Do.

1255: Sundiata dies, to be succeeded by his son Mansa Wali Keita. During his reign, he makes Hajj.

1270: Mansa Wali Keita dies. End of the (Falashan) Zagwe dynasty in Ethiopia. Yekuno Amlak comes to power, (re-)starting the Solomonid dynasty.

1272: The Mamluks invade the little Christian country of Makuria, north of Ethiopia.

1276: They invade again to put king David's cousin Shekanda on the throne. In the same year, they annex Al-Maris, former Nobatia. Soon afterwards, Alodia / Alwa is also islamized, making Ethiopia the last Christian kingdom in Africa.

1285: After three weak Mansas (rulers), the general and former slave Sakura seizes control of Mali.

1300: Sakura killed near Tripoli.

North Africa:
1207: An Almohad emir, Muhammad bin Abu Hafs, establishes the Hafsid dynasty in Libya.

1230: Berber Hafsids come to power in Tunis.

1236: Abdalwadid kingdom of Tlemcen in West Algeria.

1268: Marinids come to power in NW Africa.

1269: Last Almohad sultan killed.

Australia and Oceania:
-1300: Maori come to New Zealand.

~1300: Possible second wave of immigrants to Hawaii, from Tahiti.

And one addition to the last post:

1274: Summa Theologiae written by Thomas Aquinas. Catholic Second Council of Lyon.

 

[Max Sinister]

Greater Middle East 1260-1300

1256: Assassins not destroyed. They continue to play a more or less important role in the Middle East.
Being Ismailites, the Sunni Muslims are their worst enemies.

1261: Nikaia attacks Morea, hurts the allied states of Sicily and Epiros (similar as OTL), but can't establish itself permanently in Mistra.

1262: Ayyubid sidelines still reigning in Syria who fear the raising power of the Mamluks and Rum-Seljuks appeal to the Choresm Shah (and power behind the Caliph, we remember) for protection. Thus, Choresm's sphere of influence now borders the Mediterranean.

1263: France under Louis IX plans a crusade as retail for the lost cities in
Palestine, but Charles of Anjou is busy in Italy.

1265: Rum-Seljuks attack Nikaia, threaten the capital. This time they're content to get some areas (i.e. they don't want the whole empire). Genoa gets the Aegean islands of Lesbos, Chios and Samos, which Nikaia can't defend alone.

1268: The little crusader states of Antiochia and Tripolis (in Lebanon, not in Libya) conquered by Syrian and Choresmian troops.

1270: Seventh Crusade. France attacks Tunesia, without success.

1272: Charles of Anjou conquers the area of Albania.

1273: Baldwin II. dies. His son Philip of Courtenay becomes last Latin Emperor.

1276: Finally, Constantinople's conquered by Nikaia (some defenders changed sides, after receiving a big bribe).
The Latin Emperor flees to Athens. He becomes dependent of the mighty dukes of Athens and Achaia.
Nikaia's energy and power isn't sufficient for further attacks on Epiros and other Crusader states.
Emperor Michael has to start talks with the west about a reunification of the churches.

1277: Charles of Anjou conquers Akko, makes himself new king of Jerusalem. This comes in a very unfortunate moment for the crusaders...

1278: Achaia acquired by Charles of Anjou.

1279: Michael VIII. Palaiologos dies.

1281: Last Crusader states in Palestine conquered by the Muslims. Teutonic Order moves headquarters from Akko to Venice.

1283: Philip of Courtenay dies.

1284: Rum-Seljuks attack East Roman Empire and conquer Brussa, Nicomedia and Nikaia. (IOTL the Ottomans took eleven years for that, but they were one of many little princedoms in Anatolia. The Rum-Seljuks, OTOH, already own most of Anatolia...)

1285: Charles of Anjou dies.

1286: King Otakar has decided to go on a crusade against the Muslims, after the pope promised him to crown him Holy Roman Emperor. But while he always fought valiantly against the pagans in Prussia and Lithuania, which gave him the epiphet of "the Iron king", he's not so lucky now. Having reached Constantinople with his army, he dies. The crusade is cancelled, and the chance to rekindle actual interest in it is lost.

1287: Catholic and Greek Orthodox church officially reunited, as a last resort. Actually, many Byzantines don't like this idea at all - as they say, they prefer the Sultan's turban to the cardinal's hat.

1290: Aragon and Egypt make an alliance - the first important alliance between a Christian and a Muslim state.

1292: West of Lesser Armenia conquered by the Rum-Seljuks.

[post=564221]Read the story here...[/post]

 

[Max Sinister]

East Asia 1260-1300

1243-99: Jayavarman VIII in Kambuja (Cambodia). Being Hindu and radically anti-Buddhist, he is said/estimated to have destroyed 10,000 Buddha statues.

1251-68: Jatavarman Sundara in Pandyan (South India). He invades Ceylon successfully.

1256: No Mongol conquest of Korea

1258: The mighty Choi family continues to be the power behind the throne of Goryeo.

1259: Lanna kingdom in northern Thailand founded

(OK, so those are a few things I forgot in the last update.)

1263: Reforms by Chancellor Jia Sidao in Sung-China begin. He plans to take land from all the owner of latifundiae bigger than 1/4 sq km, which the state will pay. The surplus land is supposed to become property of the state, to make up for the needed tax money. No wonder there's much resistance, which he counters with all kinds of intrigues.

1267: Some Mongols under the relatively mighty Khan Khaishan harass Jin China, without being a real danger.

1268-79: No Mongol conquest of Southern China

1274: Song Emperor Duzong dies of natural causes. The new Emperor Gongdi is only five years old!

1274/81: No Mongol attack on Japan, no "divine wind" necessary. Consequences are difficult to estimate - Buddhism, especially Zen Buddhism, stays a bit weaker.

1275: Choi Hang of Goryeo dies, putting his son Choi Ui (not the same as OTL) in power behind the throne.

1277: The ruler of Pagan, Narathihapate feels confident in his ability to defeat the Chinese and advances into OTL today's provinces Guizhou / Guangxi. Although theoretically much weaker, he manages to make a lot of trouble for Song China. Rebellions of latifundia owners in the provinces complicate the situation even further.

1279: End of Chola Empire, taken over by Pandyas.

1280: Jia Sidao toppled as chancellor and killed afterwards. The new government decides to make peace and cedes Pagan some areas along the border, to avoid paying tribute, which they could barely afford. They send the message through all provinces that Jia Sidao's planned reforms are off - and that all those who rebelled have to be killed for their disobedience against the state, which is against Confucianism. The property of the rebels is confiscated and sold, which helps the state for some years.

1283: Khmer Empire doesn't have to pay tribute to the Mongols. King Ramkhamhaeng the Great of Sukhothai (Thailand) invents the Thai alphabet.

1284/85 and 1287/88: Vietnam not attacked by Mongols under Kublai.

1287: Pagan (that's the name, not the religion!) Empire in Burma not conquered by Mongols under Kublai.

1290: Singhasari drives Srivijaya out of Java. Slave dynasty in the Delhi Sultanate overthrown by the Khilji.

~1290: No Expedition of Kublai Khan's navy to Java. Pasai in Northern Sumatra converts to Islam.

1291: Veera Ballala III comes to power in Hoysala (South India).

1292: Lanna annexes Haripunchai in NW Thailand.

1292/99: No Mongols before Delhi.

1293: Jayakatwang, a rebel from Kediri, usurps and kills Kertanagara, king of Srivijaya. Kertarajasa or Prince (Raden) Wijaya fights him.

13th century generally: Philippines experience cultural influence of Majapahit.

[post=568999]More about the declining Song here...[/post]

 

[NFR]

I am not sure I entirely agree with the assessment on the Song's eventual fate given in the other thread - if reforms were to succeed (that one's the long shot), it would arguably not be futile. A good chunk of the Song budget went to the Navy, which was historically the one thing strong enough to kept Jin China from crossing over, and the Mongols had to make use of turncoat riverine navies from the Song to successfully rolled up the middle and lower Yangtze fortresses, which was still very hard going. It is not, I think, implausible to think that given more successful reforms perhaps the treason would be butterflyed away and the Song may be able to keep independent for a while longer by her mighty navy.

Another note... as you observed, the Song had revenue problems, population pressure, trade goods to sell, and, well, a strong navy. I am not sure how likely it is, but this definitely seems to suggest the classical European solution.

Also, without a strong threat from the West Novgorod probably won't have gotten Alexander, but then I am not sure he would have remained in Vladimir, either. Hmm, are we seeing two axis of Great Russian development here? The westward-looking faction based around Novgorod against the proto-Muscovy of Vladimir?

 

[Max Sinister]

Eastern Europe, 1250-1300

@NFR: That's the problem of Song: Confucianism traditionally disdained wars and soldiers. Besides, the Song never raised an army to conquer North China back, or even get rid of the tributes they had to pay every year. That's why I don't see why they would start it suddenly - worse things have to happen first. About their final downfall - please wait until the next installment for East Asia, I don't want to spoil.

And about Russia - we'll see. Remember, there's still the South, too.

Now back to the TL. One addition to my last post:
1290, September 27th: Earthquake in Chihli (Province Hopeh), 150,000 people killed. (Even more than IOTL, since the Mongols didn't kill half of North China's population.)

Eastern Europe, 1250-1300:

To make long things short: Russia stays disunited, although some centers of power are established: Novgorod reigns in the North and slowly starts to expand East; Vladimir-Suzdal controls the thrones of the East, Chernigov those of South-East. The western principalities are weaker, threatened by the Teutonic Order, the fresh united Poland, and the strong Hungary. And Kiev suffers since the trade with Byzantium is cut off until 1276. There are many little wars for control of the thrones, deposings of princes and coups - too many to mention.

1253: After being defeated by Aleksandr, the Volga Bulgars have to allow the Russians of Vladimir-Suzdal to go with their ships on the Volga without harassing them. This helps Vladimir's trade down to the Caspian Sea, with Choresm.

1257: Constantine Tikh I is elected new Czar of Bulgaria. After the difficult years after Ivan Asen II's death, he gives the country more stability.

1268: Prince Istvan of Hungary invades Bulgaria. Only the weakness of Byzantium and the crusader states, the Hungarian threat to Serbia and the fact that Hungary itself is close to be overextended prevents that Bulgaria is even worse off.

1270: A rebellion of peasants against the rich boyars in Novgorod.

1274: Hungary occupies Serbia.

1277: No revolt of Ivailo the swineherd in Bulgaria, Constantine Tikh I continues to reign.

1280s: Kumans in Romania cross the Danube, conquer the Karvuna (OTL Dobruja) for themselves, threaten Bulgaria.

1280: After Constantine Tikh I's death, Macedonia becomes independent. In the following decades, the states of Epirus, Byzantium and Bulgaria will compete for this area.

1282: Belgrad not conquered by Serbia.

1283: Vladimir-Suzdal finally overwhelms Ryazan, its old challenger.

1284: Stefan Uroš II Milutin of the former Serbian Nemanjić dynasty rebels against the Hungarians. Fightings go on for several years, but at the end, the Hungarians are stronger.

1293: Poland attacks Galicia-Volhynia, taking about one third of the latter's territory.

1295: After the death of Aleksandr, the Russians found the city of Aleksandrskoye at the Volga, at the opposite bank of Samara.

[post=572595]An adventurous story here...[/post]