On that note, a Iran in NATO would be very interesting, especially if the Americans' involvement in Iran prevents the Iranian revolution from happening, which would be good for Iran (and the fact that it'd prob be the most secular Islamic state would be good for the ME).
Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles
- Thread starter Lascaris
- Start date
It's the Russians, the distinction is warrented I think.
Its neat that the Irish are fighting to liberate Rome. I suppose if they're going to be motivated to fight anywhere, that might be it.
Ominous! Over by Christmas lads!
I somehow doubt Iran will be in NATO. But I bet they would be a close american ally.
What I find very important is that Iran seems to be developing institutions even from the Interwar. That would do wonders for the stability of the country and its future prospects. Iran has a lot of what is needed to become a regional power. Such development would pin it against Britain and later on against the Gulf Monarchies.
Irish columns marching through the Apennines singing this
On their way to liberate the Holy Father. After all, the fate of Rome is an ecumenical matter.
I forgot the Second Spanish Civil War was a thing. Any chances that the fascists will lose this time?
Honestly I’m increasingly pessimistic for the Assyrians. I hope they get a happy ending but they’re surrounded by more powerful groups with claims on them. It’ll be a hard needle to thread for long assuming they get it at all. Their best bet is probably going to being allied with Iran and through them the US but that kind of relationship is going to take time to develop. I’m not sure they’ll have that time. If the Middle East is allowed into ALT equivalent to NATO that’s also a possible solution.
As for Austria I really think it depends on how the end of the war goes. If Valkyrie actually succeeds I could see Austria being the the one area the Germans are allowed to keep, as the plotters dream of being allowed to keep everything in the east was never happening. At that point with the prospect of no help from the allies I can’t see them rebelling. On the other hand it could happen significantly earlier if the allies free Italy quickly and are already on the border.
I wouldn’t be so sure. Strategically they bring a lot to the table. Even if it’s still the “North Atlantic Treaty Organization” I could see them being grandfathered in because of their location, strength, and oil reserves. Particularly since they’re on the right side in WW2 this time.
I wonder if Italy will still lose land Ittl, but see it's eastern Adriatic possessions trimmed down to size not lost.
I'm curious to see how Mossadegh influences Iran in this timeline. Although Iran's bad experiences with the British means that he'll try to make Iran a non-aligned nation.
If the Assyrians get a state it'll be a miracle. I would be curious if Iraq supports it if it means using Assyria as a bulwark against its potential Kurdish rivals.
Doubt that. Austria being annexed by Germany emboldened the Nazis and I don't think Germany's neighbors are going to trust a powerful Germany. As I expressed many times, the only thing the WAllies (at least) will demand is an unconditional surrender. No compromises either.
Tbf a western leaning nation that still has its interests while being anti soviet would be the most important for the US, so stuff like taking over their oil fields may be acceptable to the US.
Tbf the Austrians still see themselves as German at the end of the day, and if Operation Valkyrie succeeds I don't see Austrian nationalists being able to take over. It'd probably be part of the French or British occupation zone.
Thing is, unlike Silesia and Prussia I don't see the WAllies really wanting to split Austria off from Germany proper since they still want a strong Germany at the end of the day. I could see Churchill's Yalta conference partition going through a bit in the sense that Austria is part of Germany and that the Moscow Declaration hasn't been proclaimed, so the allies could still see Austria as part of Germany.
Considering the Kurds and Arabs yeah, the only way they'd survive is if the Irans and Israelis help it survive in some way. I really do wonder how would Israel and Kurdistan change ME politics ittl too.
OTL Truman didn’t mind Mossadegh so I wouldn’t be surprised if the US here tolerates him if it means keeping him pro-Western.
Churchill proposed separating Germany by north and south, and by attaching southern Germany and Austria with Hungary. So either way he’s definitely keeping Germany divided. Though the pro-“keep Austria tf away from Germany” camp might win over by arguing that Austria was only recently a part of Germany and thus can be split back up.
Israel would go like OTL with sadly predictable results. Kurdistan would be carved out of Turkish territory but I could see it funding separatist movements in Arab countries and Iran. Assyria could be an ally to Arab countries considering it’d be established on mostly Kurdish land; with Assyrian advertising to Iraq as a potential ally against the Kurds.
and that I'd think the Brits and Americans would want a strong Germany which could be used by the Valkyrie coupers to justify Austria still being in Germany.
tbf I wonder if we'd see a Kurdistan-Assyria-Iran-Israel group, it'd make the most sense, and it'd work well if Kurdistan can convince its ppl that Assyria is a vital ally for their interests, as their enemies are the Arabs and Turks who'll want their lands. I defo see Kurdistan wanting to take over Kurdish majority lands in the Arab states.
Don’t think the Brits would want that actually. Not after everything it’s been through. And I especially don’t think the Americans want that either. While the partition of Germany was still being debated, there was definitely a sense that it can’t be made a threat every again and that’s not going to be up for debate. France especially will scream at the top up it lungs to demand that Germany made a threat no longer.
A lot of Kurds live in a potential Assyrian state so if the latter gets established, a lot of Kurds are going to be pissed as hell. Also Iran would be very worried about Kurdish separatism and would be at best suspicious of Kurdistan. I expect an even more convoluted mess to be made out of the Middle East here.
The UK would probably be the power most in support of a strong post Valkyrie Germany as a strong counter balance to the Soviets, who they’ve never particularly trusted. They’re who were thinking about operation unthinkable before the war was even really over in OTL. With the war going even better in TTL I can see the Brit’s coming to that conclusion sooner rather than later. Particularly since they’ve already given up the straits to the Soviets, that might make them extra paranoid.
The real fly in the pudding is Roosevelt as I’m not sure what he would do. If the option for peace was on the table and the cost was Austria I could see him taking it to save American lives. Unconditional surrender is great in concept but hard when a deal like that manifests before you. I could equally see him fighting to the end. I could see him going either way.
And France can kick and scream all they want but seeing as they’re economically and militarily gutted at the moment and the freedom of their country rides on the might of the UK and US, they don’t get much say. If they decide to go with a Valkyrie peace deal, it’s happening regardless of what France might want. I’m not just saying this because I’m a Greek fan but honestly the Greeks are probably punching above Frances weight in both of those categories at the moment. And they basically got told they aren’t getting what they want the most so suck it up. France would likely get the same treatment.
The last thing the UK also wants to deal with us a Germany that could potential go rogue again. Even if a Valkyrie Germany would oppose the USSR, what’s stopping them from turning on the WAllies of the USSR is defeated? Winston wanted a divided Germany in OTL for a good reason and I wouldn’t be surprised if he still does something like this here. And also the Soviets are going to want Germany not to be a threat again and they got the manpower to force that issue through.
Yeah I agree, it'd largely fall on Roosevelt on whether he allows Austria to still be part of Germany or not, and the fact that the Soviets may have broken some agreements before then may allow the Austrians to stay in Germany. The fact that the Moscow Agreements haven't occured means that stuff like this may be different than otl.
I'm pretty sure Japan will lose the Kurils and Shakalin due to under the table agreements, but I do hope they don't.
If that's the case I think the Americans wouldn't have allowed Austria to be jointly occupied. Everyone in the Moscow Agreements decided that Austria is a victim of Nazi Germany's aggression and an enabler which is why the soviets along the Wallies occupied it together. It wasn't the same thought process as a soviet occupation zone in East Germany.
Definitely wouldn’t be surprised if Austria will be forced to be independent again for that reason. The WAllies really don’t want to validate the Nazis by letting Germany keep Austria for fear that letting them do so would only encourage a sense of Nazi sympathy through “hey at least they did this good thing” which is the kind of attitude they don’t want to see or hear.
Tbf I could see the Allies just thinking that Austria is an 'enabler' and treating them like the rest of Germany for example and designate it to be part of the Soviet occupation zone, which tries to force Austrian nationalism down the ppl's throats and cause German nationalism to be stronger in Austria, which causes them to be reunited when the Soviets become weak.
I could still see the WAllies demand Austria be separate even after the end of communism. They were very hesitant to support OTL German reunification and I definitely don’t see them allowing Germany/Austria unification again considering what that led to the first time it was tried.
I think if Austria was to be reunited with Germany post WWII with Austria being split from Germany it's that Germany went from being a partner that no one trusted to someone that they trusted a lot in the late 80s, so I'd think the governments of the Wallies would have allowed it to allow Austria in as it is the will of the ppl that have been under communist oppression for decades.
Letting Austria back into Germany would vindicate one of Hitler’s decisions and I don’t think the WAllies are going to ever want to validate it ever. Also I imagine a decision like that is going to terrify people who think it’ll set a precedent for further German expansion.