During the collapse of the Yuan dynasty, a faction of the Goryeo court supported a war against the Ming to seize the Liaodong peninsula, sending general Yi Seong-gye to lead the invasion. He would proceed to turn his army around and oust the ruling dynasty from power, forming Joseon. What if, instead of defecting and leading a revolt against Goryeo, Yi Seong-gye follows through on his mission and invades the Liaodong peninsula in order to "restore" ancestral Korean lands? Would he have been successful, and what kind of geopolitical consequences would such an invasion have, whether or not it succeeds?
WI: Yi Seong-gye Invades Liaoning?
Does all of Korea's leadership simultaneously develop a case of ****-for-brains in wanting to take on, directly no less, one of the most powerful nations in the world and the most powerful nation in *their* world? The Ming Dynasty has More Insert Here compared to Korea and just logistically alone they'd be crushed like bugs.
History is full of this, never mind Korea. A few centuries on and you'll see a single bright bulb (Yi Sun-Sin) trying to singlehandedly save Joseon from a Japanese invasion when virtually the entire court is made up of either basket cases, or greedy, green-eyed basket cases after Yi's post and power.
That said, Goryeo didn't have the benefit of hindsight to see the full picture, and probably assumed the Ming would try to rebuild while they take Liaoning. They're still going to be floored though, and it was still stupid for what little knowledge they have on China (big and scary).
Obergruppenführer Smith
Banned
Given that Yi just barely took control of Liaodong in his first expedition and had to retreat because Goryeo couldn't provide the logistics, what makes you think he can do it this time? This is leaving aside the strange belief that Ming was in any particular position to oppose.
The Ming Dynasty was pretty wrecked at its start, devastating usurpation war and all.
Obergruppenführer Smith
Banned
You're forgetting that Ming had just conquered Manchuria in 1387, and the Wihwa Island Turnback was in 1388. Ming's position was pretty weak in the region since Northern Yuan was still a threat ,and if there was a Goryeo-Northern Yuan alliance (a possibility given how anti-Ming Goryeo was at the time), Ming would be very vulnerable. That was why Ming did that whole 鐵嶺衛 demand thing: since Ming could not afford being invaded, it was playing chicken by trying to get Goryeo to back off from any hostilities, since it knew it would be kicked out at least temporarily.
What, do you mean trying to wrest control of the Liaodong Peninsula from the Qing? That seems like it would be difficult since the Manchus had already invaded Korea at that point.
Lol wut?Joeseon was so weak during the era that it was rapidly overrun by the Manchus twice during this period and was forced to accept the Manchus as their overlord.
I guess they were too weak to do it during the fall of Qing because of Japan, too.
Maybe they'll get a chance again once the North Koreans weaken Japan during the fall of the PRC, hm wait
Maybe they'll get a chance again once the North Koreans weaken Japan during the fall of the PRC, hm wait
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Please translate the non-English characters - thanks.
Obergruppenführer Smith
Banned
Chinese: Tielingwei
Korean: Cheolryeongwi
It's a proposed Ming military district right to the north of Cheolryeong, which was the main defensive areas in the southern part of the future Hamgyeong Province. Originally it was Goryeo land taken by the Yuan and restored in the chaotic crash of the Mongols.
So in other words, it's as if France regained Alsace-Lorraine after the fall of the Germans in WW2, but the the Soviets (who made it to the Rhine) are demanding the region as a military district.
So the Ming demanded this territory, not in the expectation of actually getting, but with the idea of convincing the Koreans the Ming had to be pretty strong to make such a demand.
Obergruppenführer Smith
Banned
Basically. Ming itself knew they can't really take the land against the re-ascendant Goryeo, and even if they had the military force there was always the chance that the Mongols in Northern Yuan would hit them from the back.
The whole thing almost backfired on Ming, since if Goryeo was actually prepared to support Yi's expedition, Ming would have been in quite a bit of trouble. Yi was the one that managed to occupy Liaodong in 1370 (this was after Ming offered an alliance against the Mongols in 1368), and only fell back because logistics broke down. While I don't expect the 1388 expedition to succeed in the long run, it would have been a significant burden for Ming to handle, with no real way to actual go into Goryeo itself.
Actually Plan to invade Liaodong in 1388 was last chance for Korea to manage control of Liaodong. However there was one major "IF". In 1388, Ming launched massive military campaign against Northern Yuan.with the troops of around 150,000. IMO, Yi Seong-gye can invade the Liaodong, but whether Koreans could retain its control rests on Northern Yuan's success against Ming Dynasty.
Lets say Yi Seong-gye invaded Liaodong. At the same time Northern Yuan with some big luck manage to defeat Ming forces. Now Northern Yuan, Goryeo establishes alliance against Ming Dynasty. I think Northern Yuan-Goryeo alliance is enough to withstand until death of Hongwu Emperor.
Now what happens next? Will Yi Seong-gye establish Joseon Dynasty and become King?
Lets assume Joseon is founded by Yi Seong-gye and Jeong Do-jeon at the same time as Hongwu Emperor's death. Then they strike deal with Zhu Di and help him become Emperor. Joseon will be allied with Ming ( or even could pretend as a tributary state as long as they accept enlarged Joseon). This cements claim of Liaodong and with couple of generation Liaodong is populated by Koreans ensuring long term control of Liaodong peninsula.
What the effect of Joseon with the Liaodong territory?
1. This will boost arable land thus more population and more taxes, more wealth. It will greatly increase Joseon's power.
2. OTL Joseon constantly beat Jurchens. ITTL, Joseon will even more suppress Jurchen and invade them. Maybe Joseon and Mongols could partition Jurchens. So Jurchens/Manchus ITTL will be extremely weakened thus potentially butterflying Qing Dynasty.
3. Wild card would be Imjin War. How more powerful Joseon will fare against Japanese invasion ? If Imjin War severely weakens Joseon, would Manchu's use the opportunity and rise? But the process of founding Qing will be long and painful process with weakened Jurchens.
3. Without invasion of Qing Dynasty, Fall of Ming Dynasty could last longer. How long Warlord Era will last? At least by late 1680's there will be established another United Chinese Dynasty.
4. Without Qing Dynasty, Mongols will be united under Dzungars.
5. Without Qing Dynasty how far expand Russian Empire in Manchuria? OTL Russians tried to establish border at Sungari river. So they could take control of Outer Manchuria during Peter the Great reign.
Lets say Yi Seong-gye invaded Liaodong. At the same time Northern Yuan with some big luck manage to defeat Ming forces. Now Northern Yuan, Goryeo establishes alliance against Ming Dynasty. I think Northern Yuan-Goryeo alliance is enough to withstand until death of Hongwu Emperor.
Now what happens next? Will Yi Seong-gye establish Joseon Dynasty and become King?
Lets assume Joseon is founded by Yi Seong-gye and Jeong Do-jeon at the same time as Hongwu Emperor's death. Then they strike deal with Zhu Di and help him become Emperor. Joseon will be allied with Ming ( or even could pretend as a tributary state as long as they accept enlarged Joseon). This cements claim of Liaodong and with couple of generation Liaodong is populated by Koreans ensuring long term control of Liaodong peninsula.
What the effect of Joseon with the Liaodong territory?
1. This will boost arable land thus more population and more taxes, more wealth. It will greatly increase Joseon's power.
2. OTL Joseon constantly beat Jurchens. ITTL, Joseon will even more suppress Jurchen and invade them. Maybe Joseon and Mongols could partition Jurchens. So Jurchens/Manchus ITTL will be extremely weakened thus potentially butterflying Qing Dynasty.
3. Wild card would be Imjin War. How more powerful Joseon will fare against Japanese invasion ? If Imjin War severely weakens Joseon, would Manchu's use the opportunity and rise? But the process of founding Qing will be long and painful process with weakened Jurchens.
3. Without invasion of Qing Dynasty, Fall of Ming Dynasty could last longer. How long Warlord Era will last? At least by late 1680's there will be established another United Chinese Dynasty.
4. Without Qing Dynasty, Mongols will be united under Dzungars.
5. Without Qing Dynasty how far expand Russian Empire in Manchuria? OTL Russians tried to establish border at Sungari river. So they could take control of Outer Manchuria during Peter the Great reign.