WI: Trent Affair on a French Ship?
- Thread starter Beedok
- Start date
Nearly the same as OTL, with one important caveat of there being no war scare. Napoleon, unlike Britain, isn't in a position to deliver any kind of ultimatum, and most likely puts considerable diplomatic pressure on Washington (with the support of London, Berlin, Vienna, and St. Petersburg) that it be done.
Lincoln delays until the public is prepared to accept the release of the prisoners, then they are promptly put on another ship to the Continent.
The only post event difference I could see is that France, with her dander already up about the blockade and the resulting cotton famine, probably leans distinctly more pro-Confederate in the aftermath. Plenty more looking the other way as weapons and material are smuggled to the South, hell maybe the CSA gets a few shiny new ironclads to play with.
In the long term it really doesn't change anything about the war, but in the short term the Union has a bit more of an uphill battle.
Lincoln delays until the public is prepared to accept the release of the prisoners, then they are promptly put on another ship to the Continent.
The only post event difference I could see is that France, with her dander already up about the blockade and the resulting cotton famine, probably leans distinctly more pro-Confederate in the aftermath. Plenty more looking the other way as weapons and material are smuggled to the South, hell maybe the CSA gets a few shiny new ironclads to play with.
In the long term it really doesn't change anything about the war, but in the short term the Union has a bit more of an uphill battle.
What happens if the French public demands strong measures against the Union to revenge this humiliation? In the early 1860s France came from convincing victories over Russia and Austria, "real" Great Powers, so they will certainly underestimate the upstart US. Napoleon III as populist will feel unable to resist these clamoring for revenge.
Will it be possible to have Lincoln agree in private to grant France a diplomatic victory that does not hurt in the long run and might be recouped via negotiations some years later. Decades later, that would have been something like letting forces from French Tahiti occupy Guam until the misunderstanding is peacefully resolved. Don't know what might have calmed down the common Parisian in the early 1860s (and not irritated the RN).
Will it be possible to have Lincoln agree in private to grant France a diplomatic victory that does not hurt in the long run and might be recouped via negotiations some years later. Decades later, that would have been something like letting forces from French Tahiti occupy Guam until the misunderstanding is peacefully resolved. Don't know what might have calmed down the common Parisian in the early 1860s (and not irritated the RN).
Okay, that's about what I was planning, the goal was more to ensure poor Franco-American relations post war and causing the American public to be less receptive towards Francophone immigration.
TFSmith121
Banned
The 2nd Empire French had ambitions in the western
The 2nd Empire French had ambitions in the Western Hemisphere in the 1860s, but none of them contemplated war with the US, and - as was evident in 1866-67 - when the US took active measures to frustrate the French in Mexico, Louis-Napoleon, Bazaine et al were pretty quick to fold their tents and go home.
The French were long gone when Max, Miramon, et al were stood against a wall.
The only victories the French were looking for outside of Europe in the 1860s were cheap ones, and no conflict with the US in the Western Hemisphere was going to be cheap ... And they didn't have much in the way of troops to spare, beyond what historically was sent to Mexico, obviously.
Mason and Slidell's choice of passage to Europe was deliberate; oddly enough, however, even Palmerston acknowledged that according to British maritime law and practice, the Americans had every right to do what was done re Trent even to the point of not taking her into prize court.
Best,
The 2nd Empire French had ambitions in the Western Hemisphere in the 1860s, but none of them contemplated war with the US, and - as was evident in 1866-67 - when the US took active measures to frustrate the French in Mexico, Louis-Napoleon, Bazaine et al were pretty quick to fold their tents and go home.
The French were long gone when Max, Miramon, et al were stood against a wall.
The only victories the French were looking for outside of Europe in the 1860s were cheap ones, and no conflict with the US in the Western Hemisphere was going to be cheap ... And they didn't have much in the way of troops to spare, beyond what historically was sent to Mexico, obviously.
Mason and Slidell's choice of passage to Europe was deliberate; oddly enough, however, even Palmerston acknowledged that according to British maritime law and practice, the Americans had every right to do what was done re Trent even to the point of not taking her into prize court.
Best,