WI Teutonic Order completely destroyed in 1410

[marcinL]

While the back of the Monastic State was broken in 1410, the war results were not so great as the victory at Grunwald. Teutonic Order remained a nuisance for the next 115 years, only to be replaced by Prussia, and we all know how it ended. So WI Poles, Lithuanians, and other assorted allies did better.

Let's say that, first, Heinrich von Plauen who after massacre of the Order's officials made himself (against the law) the Grand Master and organized the defence, in 1409 had become for short time prisoner of Poles - let's say instead he was killed in the battle where originally he was taken prisoner. In his place someone less capabe is selected who upon hearing of the Order's defeat panics and basically freezes in place, so the group of soldiers in Świecie does nothing, or acts too late and arrives at the Order's capital only to find Poles already being here, and then shares the main force's fate.

Furthermore, some group of allied soldiers pursuits the fleeing crusaders with such fierceness (lust for blood or lust for loot) that they basically ride all the way to Marienburg on the latter's back and take the castle by surprise, overcoming the small standing garrison.

With fall of the capital, whatever remaining towns and castles that had not done so, pay homage to Jagiełło, the Livonians retreat to Livonia, Teutonic Knights are expelled, and the Monastic State in Prussia is liquidated, with majority of it being directly incorporated to Poland.

What do you think would be effects of this.

 

[RedSword12]

I'm not sure how plausible it is for Marienburg to just be taken like that. It seemed pretty well-fortified to me.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

While the back of the Monastic State was broken in 1410, the war results were not so great as the victory at Grunwald. Teutonic Order remained a nuisance for the next 115 years, only to be replaced by Prussia, and we all know how it ended. So WI Poles, Lithuanians, and other assorted allies did better.

Let's say that, first, Heinrich von Plauen who after massacre of the Order's officials made himself (against the law) the Grand Master and organized the defence, in 1409 had become for short time prisoner of Poles - let's say instead he was killed in the battle where originally he was taken prisoner. In his place someone less capabe is selected who upon hearing of the Order's defeat panics and basically freezes in place, so the group of soldiers in Świecie does nothing, or acts too late and arrives at the Order's capital only to find Poles already being here, and then shares the main force's fate.

Furthermore, some group of allied soldiers pursuits the fleeing crusaders with such fierceness (lust for blood or lust for loot) that they basically ride all the way to Marienburg on the latter's back and take the castle by surprise, overcoming the small standing garrison.

With fall of the capital, whatever remaining towns and castles that had not done so, pay homage to Jagiełło, the Livonians retreat to Livonia, Teutonic Knights are expelled, and the Monastic State in Prussia is liquidated, with majority of it being directly incorporated to Poland.

What do you think would be effects of this.

You could do something better than killing von Plauen: kill Sigismund of Luxembourg. Sigismund was Jogaila's enemy and the fact, that he was King of Hungary in 1410 forced Jogaila to leave significant forces on southern border to watch Hungarians, otherwise these forces could be used against Teutonic Order.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

The TO had commanderies throughout Germany. OTL it survived the loss of Prussia in the Reformation.

 

[stevej713]

It might paradoxically lead to more trouble since Polish-Lithuanian relations depended on a delicate balance of power between the nobles on both sides. Such an astounding victory would likely benefit the Poles a lot more than the Lithuanians, which would make the later agreements between the two realms more difficult.

 

[Archduke]

It might paradoxically lead to more trouble since Polish-Lithuanian relations depended on a delicate balance of power between the nobles on both sides. Such an astounding victory would likely benefit the Poles a lot more than the Lithuanians, which would make the later agreements between the two realms more difficult.

Perhaps the Poles can gain Prussia but Klaipeda is given to Lithuania. Additionally maybe Lithuania gains Livonia from the Teutonic Order's sister, the Livonian Order.

 

[EmperorOfTheNorthSea]

Maybe the Polish would be a little more willing to support the Hussites.

 

[krieger]

It might paradoxically lead to more trouble since Polish-Lithuanian relations depended on a delicate balance of power between the nobles on both sides. Such an astounding victory would likely benefit the Poles a lot more than the Lithuanians, which would make the later agreements between the two realms more difficult.

Not at all. Legally, in 1410 Lithuania was a Polish fief which was meant to be incorporated after Vytautas's death in accordance with unions of Krewo and Horodło. Lithuania did not have realm status, it was only a grand duchy. Expelling of TO from Prussia would make incorporation easier, but it'd be dependent on certain other factors, and I'm summoning @Augenis because as Pole I might have a bit biased views, so he could correct me as a proud Lithuanian and legend of AH.com

 

[Augenis]

Vytautas claimed East Prussia as far as Konigsberg as a part of his domain, and actually initially offered for the joint Polish-Lithuanian army to march through there, before he got convinced out of it. In this scenario, it's likely he would get what he claimed - so Lithuania expands beyond Memel, imo.

Not at all. Legally, in 1410 Lithuania was a Polish fief which was meant to be incorporated after Vytautas's death in accordance with unions of Krewo and Horodło. Lithuania did not have realm status, it was only a grand duchy. Expelling of TO from Prussia would make incorporation easier, but it'd be dependent on certain other factors, and I'm summoning @Augenis because as Pole I might have a bit biased views, so he could correct me as a proud Lithuanian and legend of AH.com

Chances are the Union of Horodlo, or an agreement similar to it, would still be signed in this timeline in one form or another - it was spurred by the 1413 war, but even without the Teutonic threat, the Lithuanian nobles would push for an agreement similar to it regardless. Horodlo was a weird agreement and I don't fault people for arguing over whether it promoted the cause of Polish-Lithuanian integration or delayed it, but in my personal opinion, its concession to allow Lithuania to elect its own Grand Duke would keep the two states separate for some time.

 

[krieger]

Chances are the Union of Horodlo, or an agreement similar to it, would still be signed in this timeline in one form or another - it was spurred by the 1413 war, but even without the Teutonic threat, the Lithuanian nobles would push for an agreement similar to it regardless. Horodlo was a weird agreement and I don't fault people for arguing over whether it promoted the cause of Polish-Lithuanian integration or delayed it, but in my personal opinion, its concession to allow Lithuania to elect its own Grand Duke would keep the two states separate for some time.

Ah yes, Horodło was signed after war, but there are Ostrów Agreement and union of Vilnius and Radom, and in both Vytautas and Lithuanian boyars are recognizing themselves not only as a subjects and vassals of Jogaila personally, but also as a subjects and vassals of Polish crown, so IMHO arguing about position of Poland and Lithuania is worthless - it was more Vytautas/Jogaila power struggle, where both sides played Lithuanian independence as a bargaining chip (for Vytautas to convince Jogaila to give him more power, for Jogaila to negotiate with nobles in Poland). Err, maybe I'm wrong but in the sources about union of Horodło I know, Grand Duke wasn't elected on their own by Lithuanian boyars (it was union of Grodno, which introduced similar law) but appointed by king with counsel of Polish and Lithuanian landlords. For me, if union of Horodło wasn't broken by Casimir IV, Polish kings would start appointing their eldest sons to grandducal title, because it'd be the most logic way to secure their status as a heir.

 

[Augenis]

Ah yes, Horodło was signed after war, but there are Ostrów Agreement and union of Vilnius and Radom, and in both Vytautas and Lithuanian boyars are recognizing themselves not only as a subjects and vassals of Jogaila personally, but also as a subjects and vassals of Polish crown, so IMHO arguing about position of Poland and Lithuania is worthless - it was more Vytautas/Jogaila power struggle, where both sides played Lithuanian independence as a bargaining chip (for Vytautas to convince Jogaila to give him more power, for Jogaila to negotiate with nobles in Poland). Err, maybe I'm wrong but in the sources about union of Horodło I know, Grand Duke wasn't elected on their own by Lithuanian boyars (it was union of Grodno, which introduced similar law) but appointed by king with counsel of Polish and Lithuanian landlords. For me, if union of Horodło wasn't broken by Casimir IV, Polish kings would start appointing their eldest sons to grandducal title, because it'd be the most logic way to secure their status as a heir.

The Union of Horodlo allowed the Lithuanians to elect an heir to Vytautas after his death. The Union of Grodno was the reverse - it required Žygimantas Kęstutaitis to pass the throne to Jogaila and his successors, instead of electing a successor or choosing his own son.

The requirement for the Polish nobility and monarchy to participate in Lithuanian royal elections was there in Horodlo afaik, but it wasn't really observed. (And that led to a civil war but w/e)

 

[krieger]

The Union of Horodlo allowed the Lithuanians to elect an heir to Vytautas after his death. The Union of Grodno was the reverse - it required Žygimantas Kęstutaitis to pass the throne to Jogaila and his successors, instead of electing a successor or choosing his own son.

The requirement for the Polish nobility and monarchy to participate in Lithuanian royal elections was there in Horodlo afaik, but it wasn't really observed. (And that led to a civil war but w/e)

Lidia Korczak's work Unia horodelska 1413 claims that it was about appointment, which was more in line with Jogaila's actions after Vytautas's death. Why the hell would he appoint Svitrigaila without asking about anyone's consent (which at least was given by Polish royal council)? And if the union of Grodno required Zygimantas to pass grand ducal title to Jogaila's succesor, why Casimir needed to elected Grand Duke and was not given the title by his brother?

 

[marcinL]

Maybe the Polish would be a little more willing to support the Hussites.

Maybe, but I have doubts. For neophyte king like Jagiełło it would still be poor PR business. Nevertheless, without even the severely weakened Monastic State hanging over Poland's head, his political options should be more diverse (even without considering the increased incomes from recovered Pomerania and whatever piece of Prussia Poland grabs - IMO at very least all the way to Pregoła river, if Lithianians press the Koenigsberg claim.). For starters, not having to fight against TK Jagiellons might get away without granting some of the many priviledges given on such occasions.

 

[Augenis]

Lidia Korczak's work Unia horodelska 1413 claims that it was about appointment, which was more in line with Jogaila's actions after Vytautas's death. Why the hell would he appoint Svitrigaila without asking about anyone's consent (which at least was given by Polish royal council)? And if the union of Grodno required Zygimantas to pass grand ducal title to Jogaila's succesor, why Casimir needed to elected Grand Duke and was not given the title by his brother?

Well that's what I said isn't it? An election was held after Vytautas's death, which elected Švitrigaila. The requirement for Jogaila and Poland to approve a Lithuanian Grand Duke was there, but it was not observed by the Lithuanians, therefore, the Lithuanian civil war began.

Because the Union of Grodno only had any effect on paper and there never was an election for Casimir. As soon as Žygimantas died, Jonas Goštautas and the Council of Lords annuled the treaty and declared him the new Grand Duke of Lithuania without any say from either Poland or the lesser nobility.

 

[krieger]

Well that's what I said isn't it? An election was held after Vytautas's death, which elected Švitrigaila. The requirement for Jogaila and Poland to approve a Lithuanian Grand Duke was there, but it was not observed by the Lithuanians, therefore, the Lithuanian civil war began.

Because the Union of Grodno only had any effect on paper and there never was an election for Casimir. As soon as Žygimantas died, Jonas Goštautas and the Council of Lords annuled the treaty and declared him the new Grand Duke of Lithuania without any say from either Poland or the lesser nobility.

Not exactly. There wasn't (at least formal) election of Svitrigaila, he was just grabbing some castles around when Jogaila decided on his whim that's it's good to appoint his brother Grand Duke, Lithuanians recognized it, Poles imposed condition that Svitrigaila would give them access to Podolia and Volhynia directly and pay fealty also to Polish Crown. Svitrigaila did not agree, so his war with crowned brother began and then, catholic Lithuanians worried by Svitrigaila openly favoring Ruthenian nobility, chose Sigismund and war with Poland became civil war. Are you sure? Casimir had to be sent to Lithuania at first, and Jonas and Council of Lords instead of accepting him as governor (as his brother intended) chose him Grand Duke.