What would have happened if the Western Allies had accepted Stalin's proposal for reunification of Germany under a "neutral and democratic" government in 1952?
WI: Stalin's proposal for German reunification accepted
- Thread starter GriffinFTW
- Start date
It is hard to imagine that such a key region would have been allowed to actually be 'neutral' as the Cold War heated up. The strategic position is just too vital, since Germany would be the front-lines in any kind of USA-USSR showdown. They would be forced to take sides to some degree, and that would be a messy process.
I call bull. Stalin "promised" free and fair elections in Poland. Look where that got them.
Scholars are divided if Stalin was actually serious, but the dictator said it enough to be worthy of exploration I think. It fully may be that Stalin calculated such a Germany was better then what he got OTL, an unfriendly and much wealthier West Germany fully part of the Western bloc.
Assuming that they were able to do it, the Cold War would become far less intense. Without the direct flashpoint of divided Germany…
If we TRULY get a neutral German with a Free give then the Cold War has a major deescalation.
The Problem is you are not going to get that. You are much more likely to get a so called free Germany that is actually a puppet state of the USSR.
This will increase tensions and may ultimately result in fighting breaking out at some point such as the. Urban Missile Crisis or this timelines equivalent as the west will not trust the USSR at all.
The likelihood of the USSR doing what it said is so slim as to be non existent.
Look at the way the forced the devision of Europe in the first place that was not what they said they would do. Then look at actions in Poland and elsewhere. I know we all talk about how GB learned not to trust a word Hitler said but the west has as much reason not to trust Stalin/the USSR.
The Problem is you are not going to get that. You are much more likely to get a so called free Germany that is actually a puppet state of the USSR.
This will increase tensions and may ultimately result in fighting breaking out at some point such as the. Urban Missile Crisis or this timelines equivalent as the west will not trust the USSR at all.
The likelihood of the USSR doing what it said is so slim as to be non existent.
Look at the way the forced the devision of Europe in the first place that was not what they said they would do. Then look at actions in Poland and elsewhere. I know we all talk about how GB learned not to trust a word Hitler said but the west has as much reason not to trust Stalin/the USSR.
I don't think that they'll be any de-escalation. First close or disputed election will see the losers calling in their ideological sponsors in which in turn will cause their opponents to plead with theirs to intervene.
Besides which a reunited communist Germany would be far too much a threat to Stalinist Russia especially if it falls under Chinese influence. Also consider the impact on the Prague Spring if German party comrades decided to support them. Soviet control over Eastern Europe always depended on keeping the Warsaw Pact states smaller and weaker than their benevolent big brother to the east.
I think Stalin made the offer knowing it would be rejected. Just another ploy in a game of nerves directed at fellow travellers in the west.
To recycle an old post of mine:
***
IMO the Stalin Note was not a "lost opportunity" for German reunification . That it was neither intended nor desired by Stalin to be accepted but was simply meant as a propaganda tool is strongly argued by John Lewis Gaddis in We Now Know: Rethinking Cold War History (Oxford UP 1997):
"The idea for the March 1952 note came from the Soviet Foreign Ministry. Such an initiative, Deputy Foreign Minister Gromyko suggested, would strengthen "the struggle for peace and against remilitarization of West Germany," and would "help the advocates of Germany's unity and of peace to unmask the three Western powers' aggressive intentions." Prior Soviet and East German efforts to achieve this had not worked, the Poles and the Czechs were told. The new approach was intended "to develop a respective campaign in the press and among the German population against the aggressive policy of the three powers concerning West Germany." 80 The East Germans themselves were informed that West German membership in the EDC would be equivalent to membership in NATO itself, and that the purpose of the note was to prevent that development by bringing down the Adenauer government. 81 Soviet diplomat Vladimir Semyonov recalled Stalin asking: was it certain the Americans would turn the note down? Only when assured that it was did the Soviet leader give his approval, but with the warning that there would be grave consequences for Semyonov if this did not prove to be the case. "
https://archive.org/details/1gaddisJLWeNowKnowRethinkingColdWarHistory/page/n137/mode/2up
This is not to say that there may not have been other occasions (1947, the Beria-Malenkov interregnum in 1953, and maybe even shortly before Malenkov's fall in 1955) when there was a real chance for unification. I discuss Molotov's 1947 proposals at https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...r-ww2-and-how-to-get-it.465203/#post-18721842 and Malenkov's position (before Beria's fall in 1953 and apparently again just before his own fall in 1955) at https://soc.history.what-if.narkive...l-be-a-bourgeois-democratic-republic-malenkov As I note at https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...soviet-union-looks-like.453155/#post-17685244 it is possible that Khrushchev made Beria (and later Malenkov) would-be "betrayers" of the GDR for positions that the Presidium as a whole backed after Stalin's death and before the June 17 uprising. But while all these may have been lost opportunities, the Stalin Note probably was not.
Last edited:
For Stalin was political gamble, see i'm able to do peaceful proposal. knowing the west would refuse the proposal do West Germany strategic position.
But what if USA had not refused, but welcome the proposal ?
Stalin angry about gamble away the strategic east Germany, settle on If i can't have it, you will not have it either!
here the thing can go two ways:
1. They start long negotiation process, during Stalin drop dead and new Management terminate the negotiation.
2. They go ahead and manage to unified Germany before Stalin drop dead.
What out come would have this ?
It would form four of neutral buffer states between NATO and Warsaw Pakt: Germany, Austria, Yugoslavia and Switzerland.
Both side would have cross those buffer states to invade the other side
NATO must concentrate their effort and main forces on France territory, until deGaulle step out NATO in 1966, weaken the NATO in process.
focusing now on Benelux, Britain, Italy, Norway, Greece and Turkey, while taking Spain as new member.
On other side the Red Army has to build up massively in Poland, Czechoslovakia and Hungary.
what let long therm problems see Hungary uprise, the Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia, Poland Solidarność and issue with Romania.
Also focus both side more on Bombers, MRBM, IRBM and ICBM to hit other side in case of war.
What could let to reduction of ground forces to defence units that protect launch silos.
The only one who profit of that situation is Germany...
...or not ?
The Issue with neutrality, you not sell stuff the NATO or Warsaw Pakt need to build weapons.
Means no german high tech for their military industrial complex, that include components for French atomic bombs !
What let to issue that french can't develop their Atomic bomb or delay the program for decade to develop own needed high tech. (no deGaulle step out NATO in 1966)
This would reduce economic export of Germany to mostly consumer goods.
But what if USA had not refused, but welcome the proposal ?
Stalin angry about gamble away the strategic east Germany, settle on If i can't have it, you will not have it either!
here the thing can go two ways:
1. They start long negotiation process, during Stalin drop dead and new Management terminate the negotiation.
2. They go ahead and manage to unified Germany before Stalin drop dead.
What out come would have this ?
It would form four of neutral buffer states between NATO and Warsaw Pakt: Germany, Austria, Yugoslavia and Switzerland.
Both side would have cross those buffer states to invade the other side
NATO must concentrate their effort and main forces on France territory, until deGaulle step out NATO in 1966, weaken the NATO in process.
focusing now on Benelux, Britain, Italy, Norway, Greece and Turkey, while taking Spain as new member.
On other side the Red Army has to build up massively in Poland, Czechoslovakia and Hungary.
what let long therm problems see Hungary uprise, the Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia, Poland Solidarność and issue with Romania.
Also focus both side more on Bombers, MRBM, IRBM and ICBM to hit other side in case of war.
What could let to reduction of ground forces to defence units that protect launch silos.
The only one who profit of that situation is Germany...
...or not ?
The Issue with neutrality, you not sell stuff the NATO or Warsaw Pakt need to build weapons.
Means no german high tech for their military industrial complex, that include components for French atomic bombs !
What let to issue that french can't develop their Atomic bomb or delay the program for decade to develop own needed high tech. (no deGaulle step out NATO in 1966)
This would reduce economic export of Germany to mostly consumer goods.
Last edited:
Well obviously Stalin is not going yo play fair and the result of the election will be a mess that the USSR tries to manipulate and take advantage of. And this will result in worse relation between the East and West. But if somehow Stalin was actutelling the truth and the elections were fair and the outcome was a trully neutral non communist aligned German the. This WOULD reduce tensions between the East and West as Stalin did what he said he would and did not use it to somehow gain an advantage. (ok this is as close to ASB as you get)
So in realit will never happen
If it did happen the USSR will use it to thier benefit and somehow end up with a puppet state that is “nominally neutral “. But in fact is pro USSR.
If some miracle happens and Stalin tells the truth and lets free and honest vote take place then ten signs will drop if the vote results in a truly neutral German that is not communist nor a puppet state of the USSR. On the other hand if a free honest election results in a com puppet state the west will scream that the election was rigged and tensions go through the roof.
In either case if tensions go higher you may get a WW3 when the west gets into an incident. Such as the Cuban Missile Crises. And the Military is allowed a heavier hand as a result of even less trust between the US and the USSR.
So in realit will never happen
If it did happen the USSR will use it to thier benefit and somehow end up with a puppet state that is “nominally neutral “. But in fact is pro USSR.
If some miracle happens and Stalin tells the truth and lets free and honest vote take place then ten signs will drop if the vote results in a truly neutral German that is not communist nor a puppet state of the USSR. On the other hand if a free honest election results in a com puppet state the west will scream that the election was rigged and tensions go through the roof.
In either case if tensions go higher you may get a WW3 when the west gets into an incident. Such as the Cuban Missile Crises. And the Military is allowed a heavier hand as a result of even less trust between the US and the USSR.
I think that Stalin believed that Germany would go communist eventually, especially if it was seen that he was leading the campaign for a united Germany. After all, a democratic government handed the reins to Hitler, so the Germans may feel “fool me twice”. Communism may appear a viable/stable alternative. It might even have come to pass, except when the harsh realities of reconstruction became apparent. So a short term victory for Russia, but a long term albatross.
ric350
ric350
Might be more palatable to both sides had the Morgenthau plan been implemented (I’ll ignore the predicted mass starvation…) - a crippled, agrarian Germany would be quite a useful, non-threatening neutral zone. Still think it’s unlikely in general though. Old Joe was quite the empire builder when opportunity arose.
Is this not going to lead to a huge issue as soon as USSR is post Stalin, as they will be view 100% as an occupation army? Add the fact that they have allowed Germany/Austria after WWII to escape punishment and occupation to neutrality.....
OTL The Soviet installed massif Troops and equipment (also Nuclear) in East Germany do it strategic position to West Germany
up to 600000 soldiers over 7 site in East Germany.
had Stalin completed this German reunification, certain those troops would pull out East Germany
but moved to new strategic position of Iron curtain: Poland and Czechoslovakia
In case NATO decide to attack the Warsaw Pact member by invade one of Neutral buffer states,
While the NATO focus there effort in France in case that Warsaw Pact decide to attack the NATO by invade one of Neutral buffer states...
...Cold War Logic
Yes and what then once De-Stalinization starts and they re allowed to start opening up..... how do Poland and Czechoslovakia feel about huge Soviet forces in occupation when Germany is now neutral and has been freed from communism occupation after what it has done? How long do you think before if not open revolt they start large scale resistance and even the majority of the government and army are no longer loyal communist, but regard USSR as Russian occupiers?
They will rebel and how convenient for Soviet union to have troops already in place to suppress that revolt,
Fact the Soviet forces stations in East Germany were used to crush Czechoslovakia in 1968...
Yes, but it's an open nightmare for Soviet global propaganda as they will be openly at war suppressing the WP nations and this will destroy the (Soviet and local) economy as well.