WI: Smaller Mongol Empire - no expansion post 1227

[trixofthetrade]

There's a bunch of timelines that either have no Mongol Empire at all, or an unstoppable Mongol Empire that conquers all of Europe, India, and Egypt. But what about a very plausible scenario that's not discussed too often: What if the Mongols, upon the death of Genghis Khan in 1227, decided to halt the conquests and instead consolidate their new holdings.

With a POD of 1227 (Genghis Khan's death), how would a smaller Mongol Empire influence world history going forward, and how would a smaller Mongol state develop? I have a few theories, but would love to hear other people's thoughts.

In a nutshell:
• 'Russia' never develops as an empire without the Golden Horde making Moscow the paramount city. I see a few power centers of Slavic states forming; one centered around Novgorod, another around Kiev, and maybe one in modern-day Belarus.
• Seljuks of Rum are in much better shape, and manage to conquer Byzantium earlier (say mid-1300's). Without gunpowder, they don't make it much further into Europe however.
• Abbasid Caliphate doesn't get wrecked by Hulagu, Crusader states fall much sooner without the Mongols menacing the Islamic world from the east.
• Shia Islam is reduced to a much smaller proportion of the Islamic world, as Persia remains linked to the Sunni Abbasids (no Mongols =no Timurids or Safavids)
• Song China becomes extremely insular and isolationist (even moreso than OTL's Ming). Great Wall gets built further south, much more focus on maintaining territory than expanding.

As for the Mongols themselves:
• Smaller territory means internal cohesion can be maintained longer. Assuming succession gets streamlined, I see some degree of a stable Mongol state lasting to at least 1400's.
• Mongol Empire eventually breaks apart on a west-east axis, with the Western half (the-stan countries & Xinjiang) becoming dominated by Turkic influences, and potentially converts to Islam. The Western Mongols centralize power around Transoxiana, with cities like Samarkand, Urgrench, & Bukhara becoming the major urban centers.
• The Eastern half (modern Mongolia, Manchuria, & North China) becomes dominated by Chinese influences, but remains distinct from the Song to the south. Urbanization is slower here, with much more steppe land available to maintain nomadic lifestyle, but the rich plains of North China become the main population centers. Mongols remain a minority, making up the military/political elite, with the bulk of the population being Chinese or Jurchen/Manchu.

Mongol Empire at 1227, overlaid on top of modern borders:

 

[Miranda Brawner]

Sounds like a cool scenario! I wonder what effects this would have on Korea and Japan.

 

[Avrorrange]

@trixofthetrade Song Dynasty cannot become isolationist like the Ming Dynasty because trade is imprinted in it’s DNA. It cannot afford it’s regular armies by just closing the ports. Even the Ming Dynasty had to open up when it transitioned to a regular army system.Besides that, you will likely see a string of forts along the Yellow River than another Great Wall.

 

[trixofthetrade]

Sounds like a cool scenario! I wonder what effects this would have on Korea and Japan.

Korea would be forced into some degree of vassalage, just by virtue of geography. Japan could go in multiple directions, someone with a better understanding of Japanese history could elaborate.

 

[trixofthetrade]

@trixofthetrade Song Dynasty cannot become isolationist like the Ming Dynasty because trade is imprinted in it’s DNA. It cannot afford it’s regular armies by just closing the ports. Even the Ming Dynasty had to open up when it transitioned to a regular army system.Besides that, you will likely see a string of forts along the Yellow River than another Great Wall.

Interesting. I wonder if the Mongol state would lay claim to the “Mandate of Heaven”. If so, peaceful coexistence becomes extremely difficult. OTOH, the Song could just see the Mongols as an expanded steppe empire, and deal with them as such (bribes, hire them as mercenaries, etc).

 

[kasumigenx]

There's a bunch of timelines that either have no Mongol Empire at all, or an unstoppable Mongol Empire that conquers all of Europe, India, and Egypt. But what about a very plausible scenario that's not discussed too often: What if the Mongols, upon the death of Genghis Khan in 1227, decided to halt the conquests and instead consolidate their new holdings.

With a POD of 1227 (Genghis Khan's death), how would a smaller Mongol Empire influence world history going forward, and how would a smaller Mongol state develop? I have a few theories, but would love to hear other people's thoughts.

In a nutshell:
• 'Russia' never develops as an empire without the Golden Horde making Moscow the paramount city. I see a few power centers of Slavic states forming; one centered around Novgorod, another around Kiev, and maybe one in modern-day Belarus.
• Seljuks of Rum are in much better shape, and manage to conquer Byzantium earlier (say mid-1300's). Without gunpowder, they don't make it much further into Europe however.
• Abbasid Caliphate doesn't get wrecked by Hulagu, Crusader states fall much sooner without the Mongols menacing the Islamic world from the east.
• Shia Islam is reduced to a much smaller proportion of the Islamic world, as Persia remains linked to the Sunni Abbasids (no Mongols =no Timurids or Safavids)
• Song China becomes extremely insular and isolationist (even moreso than OTL's Ming). Great Wall gets built further south, much more focus on maintaining territory than expanding.

As for the Mongols themselves:
• Smaller territory means internal cohesion can be maintained longer. Assuming succession gets streamlined, I see some degree of a stable Mongol state lasting to at least 1400's.
• Mongol Empire eventually breaks apart on a west-east axis, with the Western half (the-stan countries & Xinjiang) becoming dominated by Turkic influences, and potentially converts to Islam. The Western Mongols centralize power around Transoxiana, with cities like Samarkand, Urgrench, & Bukhara becoming the major urban centers.
• The Eastern half (modern Mongolia, Manchuria, & North China) becomes dominated by Chinese influences, but remains distinct from the Song to the south. Urbanization is slower here, with much more steppe land available to maintain nomadic lifestyle, but the rich plains of North China become the main population centers. Mongols remain a minority, making up the military/political elite, with the bulk of the population being Chinese or Jurchen/Manchu.

Mongol Empire at 1227, overlaid on top of modern borders:
View attachment 737283

It could expand to Siberia later on.

 

[Tibi088]

For one Hungary doesnt loose about half of its population. This would also mean that Bela IV would not radically change his policies and continue his efforts to strengthen royal power: governance of Hungary under the Árpád's (at least till András II - Bela IV's father and predecessor) was vastly different than usual western feudalism and Bela IV tried to return to the situation before his fathers (ill thought out) policies.
Assuming he is successfull (he has a good chance of that I think) thats a vastly different Hungary: it enters the 1300's with twice the populace and a strongly centralized Kingdom mostly in the hand of the king. It will aslo lack a serious number of fortifications that were OTL built as a result of the mongol attack - and later gave the backbone to the power of the magnates.

 

[MarquessAngewoah]

One of the things I think could happen is a larger Hungary. I think that had the Mongols not invaded (presumably) then Hungary could have assimilated the Lands of the Crown of St Stephen and could have retained an independent monarchy and it’s sovereignty, and could avoid the Austrians possibly.

 

[Tibi088]

One of the things I think could happen is a larger Hungary. I think that had the Mongols not invaded (presumably) then Hungary could have assimilated the Lands of the Crown of St Stephen and could have retained an independent monarchy and it’s sovereignty, and could avoid the Austrians possibly.

Doubtful: a much higher population helps a lot but it wont be enough for Hungary to hold of the Ottomans alone. I also doubt the Árpád dynasty will survive longer without the mongols. This means Hungary will have both the motivation (ottomans) and means (dynasty changes) to invite foreign rulers on the throne to form an anti-ottoman block.

As for the ethnic make up of the country: its also worth mentioning that the mongols were much more devastating on the plains ( previously mostly hungarian populace) than on the mountainous regions (mostly non hungarians). And even with the mongols before the Ottoman wars the estimation is that hungarians were a significant majority in the carpathian basin and this only changed as a result of the devastation of the ottoman wars and the resettlement policies of the Habsburgs after them.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Without Mongol invasion of Europe there is no battle of Legnica, Henry the Pious is not killed in battle and his military forces not destroyed. Poland is likely reunited by Silesian Piasts and its "center of gravity" is moved further west-Silesia as most populous and richest province of Poland would dominate the country, Wrocław may eventually became capital.

 

[the man in the fly castle]

It's possible if Anushtegin dynasty did not killed caravan of Mongol merchants. It might make Genghis Khan have no reason to begin a west campaign(since at beginning Genghis Khan only want to make sure a stable trade relationship) and more focus on destroy it's feud Jin dynasty and maybe all China.

 

[twovultures]

The Islamic Golden Age is widely seen to have started its decline with the Mongol's sack of Baghdad. That's probably oversimplified, but I think it's fair to say that without the sack and Mongol conquests, more institutional knowledge in Islam is preserved and the philosophical and scientific flourishing of the time will last longer and perhaps lead to more discoveries in the Middle East.

 

[raharris1973]

• Seljuks of Rum are in much better shape, and manage to conquer Byzantium earlier (say mid-1300's). Without gunpowder, they don't make it much further into Europe however.

So the Rum Turk Sultanate emerges from central Anatolia to occupy modern Turkey's Anatolia plus Thrace template earlier than OTL, but never blossoms much beyond it?

Sounds like much needles imperial expansion, and rollback, is thereby avoided.

Were the Mongols that primary a cause of the decay and fragmentation of the Rum Sultanate, in comparison to its own age and entropy, and aggressive moves by others like the Latin Empire, Venetian Empire, and Empires of Nicaea and Trebizond?

• Abbasid Caliphate doesn't get wrecked by Hulagu, Crusader states fall much sooner without the Mongols menacing the Islamic world from the east.

Perhaps, somewhat like Turkey above, 'Iraq' settles into more or less its modern shape and size earlier, and more stably under the Abbasids?

The Ayyubids, heirs of Saladin ruling Egypt and the Levant, perhaps finish them off, even before the Mamluks take over?

• Shia Islam is reduced to a much smaller proportion of the Islamic world, as Persia remains linked to the Sunni Abbasids (no Mongols =no Timurids or Safavids)

Persia linked to the Abbasids spiritually? Because temporally, the Abbasids were limited to Iraq and Kuwait, minus the Kurdish area and perhaps Mosul.

 

[Silver01]

• Seljuks of Rum are in much better shape, and manage to conquer Byzantium earlier (say mid-1300's). Without gunpowder, they don't make it much further into Europe however.

well the seljuks from 1211 to 1241 did not intend to conquer Nicea nor were there any moves towards it , Kayqubad I focused his attention east not to the west since mongol raids of subotai had happend Georgia is going to be if anything it means more of John III Doukas attention is also in the east with the turks also the presence of kharezem migth change the point is before 1227 jal al din was attacking the Caucasus without having to face chormagan and Taymas Noyan in 1227 and 1228 he has more recourses to consolidate and be more annoying in the Caucasus.

• Abbasid Caliphate doesn't get wrecked by Hulagu, Crusader states fall much sooner without the Mongols menacing the Islamic world from the east.

with the Mongols not taking the abuyids there is a change the crusader states last as long if not longer depending on if they shift alliance with the mamluks and abuyids.

 

[CountDVB]

So basically instead of big Russia, we get earlier Ukraine and Belarus along with a remaining Novogorod and Muscovy based jnations and even a Great Perm around.

Mongolians may focus more on the steps and it's likely that traditional Mongolian influence may last longer. This could mean that some of the influences it would take from China would spread over into Central Asia. Whethe we'll actually see a break-up... I am actually unsure of that. They could expand north into Siberia and take that without having to worry about a European power though they may lost most of their southern borders to China. I think also they may loose southern Central Asia (everything bu Kazakhstan) over to Islamic influence, but Kazakhstan remains Mongolian infuenced.

 

[trixofthetrade]

Doubtful: a much higher population helps a lot but it wont be enough for Hungary to hold of the Ottomans alone. I also doubt the Árpád dynasty will survive longer without the mongols. This means Hungary will have both the motivation (ottomans) and means (dynasty changes) to invite foreign rulers on the throne to form an anti-ottoman block.

As for the ethnic make up of the country: its also worth mentioning that the mongols were much more devastating on the plains ( previously mostly hungarian populace) than on the mountainous regions (mostly non hungarians). And even with the mongols before the Ottoman wars the estimation is that hungarians were a significant majority in the carpathian basin and this only changed as a result of the devastation of the ottoman wars and the resettlement policies of the Habsburgs after them.

The Ottomans arising might be butterflied away if the Mongols don’t wreck the Seljuks of Rum in the 1240’s, leading to the division into the Turkish Beyliks throughout the 1300’s.

 

[trixofthetrade]

The Islamic Golden Age is widely seen to have started its decline with the Mongol's sack of Baghdad. That's probably oversimplified, but I think it's fair to say that without the sack and Mongol conquests, more institutional knowledge in Islam is preserved and the philosophical and scientific flourishing of the time will last longer and perhaps lead to more discoveries in the Middle East.

Curious to see theories on how it would effect the Islamic world. On one hand, the devastation of the Mongols in Transoxiana, Persia, & Iraq pretty much ended the Golden Age of Islam.

However, the western Mongol Khanates eventually converted to Islam, with pretty much all of Turkic peoples & Tatars becoming Muslims, greatly expanding the range of Islam. Without the Mongols, it may look like a smaller Islamic world, but a more prosperous one.

 

[kholieken]

Is it possible Central Asia become Buddhist in this scenario ?
- Muslim Khwarzhem collapse under Mongol attack.
- smaller Mongol Empire had majority Buddhist population in Northern China
- trade, government, and military relations between West and East Steppe would transfer a lot of Buddhist to Central Asia.

 

[CountDVB]

Is it possible Central Asia become Buddhist in this scenario ?
- Muslim Khwarzhem collapse under Mongol attack.
- smaller Mongol Empire had majority Buddhist population in Northern China
- trade, government, and military relations between West and East Steppe would transfer a lot of Buddhist to Central Asia.

Most likely, but now I’m thinking of something else!

The Cuman–Kipchak Confederation, or more specifically the Cumans or Polovtsians. They’d be pretty interesting since they were influenced by Catholics, but could see some new branch of Christianity influenced by Buddhism in the Northern Caucasus though Moscow may focus down for Eastern Orthodoxy there

 

[CountDVB]

Curious to see theories on how it would effect the Islamic world. On one hand, the devastation of the Mongols in Transoxiana, Persia, & Iraq pretty much ended the Golden Age of Islam.

However, the western Mongol Khanates eventually converted to Islam, with pretty much all of Turkic peoples & Tatars becoming Muslims, greatly expanding the range of Islam. Without the Mongols, it may look like a smaller Islamic world, but a more prosperous one.

Age of prosperity would definitely continue, but not sure for how long. I’m thinking maybe until the Black Plague arrives, which would still happen I’m thinking.

While the Plague and the former Famine hurt the hell out of Europe, OTL saw the Middle East lose 1/3rd of their population, and that would very likely still happen here. Would definitely start a bit of a decline.