WI: Operation Downfall Succeeded

[Sasha_2003]

Would have South Japan and North Japan Divided instead West Germany and East Germany?
Would have Anime, Manga and Light Novel Never Exist?
Would Have South and North Japan Reunification instead West Germany and East Germany Reunification 1990?
Would Have Soviet Invaded Korea?
Would Kuomintang Won Civil War?

 

[Ana Luciana II]

Would have South Japan and North Japan Divided instead West Germany and East Germany?

The Red Navy didn’t have the capabilities to launch an amphibious invasion of the Japanese Home Islands at this stage so no division of Japan between north and south. Best case scenario for the Soviets is that they receive South Sakhalin (as per OTL) and get basing rights for their troops and ships in Hokkaido.
IMO you get a poorer and more devastated Japan post-WW2.

Would have Anime, Manga and Light Novel Never Exist?

No clue, but weren’t anime and manga heavily influenced by comic books brought to Japan by American occupying forces? Something to think about.

Would Have Soviet Invaded Korea?

Almost certainly. Especially if the Western Allies are tied down with a bloody invasion of Japan Proper. Given how thoroughly the Soviets steamrolled the Kwangtung Army I see no reason they wouldn’t keep marching till they reached the Straits of Tsushima.

Would Kuomintang Won Civil War?

Not likely IMO. The KMT are screwed, what with a stronger Soviet presence in North China, and the Western Allies distracted with Downfall. Mao will receive even more territory and supplies when the Red Army eventually withdraws.

 

[CHKeeley]

The Red Navy didn’t have the capabilities to launch an amphibious invasion of the Japanese Home Islands at this stage so no division of Japan between north and south. Best case scenario for the Soviets is that they receive South Sakhalin (as per OTL) and get basing rights for their troops and ships in Hokkaido.
IMO you get a poorer and more devastated Japan post-WW2.

An amphibious landing on Hokkaido by Soviet forces is by no means out of the question. They certainly had the ships, though very limited, to ferry divisions over the water. Due to low Japanese troop presence, an unopposed landing of a Soviet division and then further reinforcement runs would be feasible and is something the Soviet command in the east had already drawn up plans for.

 

[Ana Luciana II]

An amphibious landing on Hokkaido by Soviet forces is by no means out of the question. They certainly had the ships, though very limited, to ferry divisions over the water. Due to low Japanese troop presence, an unopposed landing of a Soviet division and then further reinforcement runs would be feasible and is something the Soviet command in the east had already drawn up plans for.

My mistake. I didn’t know the troop presence in Hokkaido was so low. Why was this? Was it regarded as less defensible/less strategically important?

 

[CHKeeley]

My mistake. I didn’t know the troop presence in Hokkaido was so low. Why was this? Was it regarded as less defensible/less strategically important?

As far as I know, it’s a massive area with relatively low risk of invasion by US forces and far from most of the strategic points of Japan (industry, cultural significance, population centers, etc). It was too big of an area to garrison effectively and decent Japanese formations were prioritized where a full-scale American landing was expected so Kyushu and the southern islands as well as the Kanto plain mostly. Japan had a few divisions on the island, but pretty sparse overall.

 

[Lalli]

Would have South Japan and North Japan Divided instead West Germany and East Germany?

There still would be division of Germany. Stalin wanted push Soviet influence as far to the West as possible. That was already made before Downfall would had been launched. And Japan probably would be divided too.

Would have Anime, Manga and Light Novel Never Exist?

Probably but these would are different from OTL.

Would Have South and North Japan Reunification instead West Germany and East Germany Reunification 1990?

I don't see why these would are exclusive things so there might be unification of both nations, only another country is unfied or then non both.

Would Have Soviet Invaded Korea?

Surely.

Would Kuomintang Won Civil War?

Hard to say. There things could go many ways.

 

[Cudymcar]

An amphibious landing on Hokkaido by Soviet forces is by no means out of the question

It was agreed upon in Yalta.

 

[merlin]

IMO you get a poorer and more devastated Japan post-WW2.

japan would be almost back to the 'stone age'! at least to pre-industrial Japan, indeed more like a feudal Japan, Japan's Command & control would have quickly ceased to exist. The people would have a stark choice - find food for the family or die. If 'civilians' are used to attack US troops with anything at hand, won't be long before peasants are shot at just for going to hoe the crops.
Just wonder, if Japanese -Americans would be given inducements to resettle and populate the 'old country'!?

 

[nbcman]

It was agreed upon in Yalta.

Where did you get that from? What I’ve seen from Glantz and Giangreco, that is not the case and that the Soviet plans for Hokkaido didn’t get started until after the Emperor ordered a surrender.

 

[Sekhmet_D]

The Red Navy didn’t have the capabilities to launch an amphibious invasion of the Japanese Home Islands at this stage so no division of Japan between north and south.

What most people overlook is that they had the capability to launch an airborne invasion. They had the largest number of airborne divisions in the world.

 

[CalBear]

Please use the Post-1900 Misc. thread for these sorts of WI.

You need to actually start a discussion not just ask a question or issue an AH challenge

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