WI: No American Pacific

I posted this idea here but I thought I'd make it its own thread.

What if the US never gets any Pacific territory? e.g. 19th Century British Sandwich Islands, Spanish-American conflict (if and when it happens) is limited to the Caribbean etc. Germany is often brought into these scenarios but I think it's safe to assume that the Great War plays out the same way (the addition of Guam to the German Marianas is unlikely to affect the European trenches) so any German gains would be redistributed among the Allies (France, UK, Netherlands?, Japan?). How does a major *Pacific War play out under those conditions? The US likely still has economic interests in the region but without territory to protect it may be more inclined to work with whoever is in charge.
 
An essential part of answering the OP is to answer what power controls California and Oregon and how did the US come to lose out (if at all) on controlling that territory. It is also possible that the US is limited to its pre-1800 borders, east of the Mississippi.

Nevertheless, I'll assume we're talking a POD post 1816 (so that the War of 1812 is also not an issue), if not later. Even so, this late date guarantees that New Spain / Mexico will have some relative degree of instability. It of course does not guarantee the outcome of that instability nor its permanence. It's quite possible that New Spain manages to stay just powerful enough to keep the US from acquiring the Mexican Cession. It's a bit easier to get Oregon to stay more British than OTL, but it will be difficult to posit that the US tolerates as small a Pacific border as it might have if it had granted the British a border at the Columbia River (i.e. the coast of modern day Oregon). To completely eliminate that border, you'd probably need an outright war between the US and Britain. This isn't all that difficult to arrange, however. So far, we have a somehow stable Mexico (let's assume independence from Spain by 1830 at the latest), holding California, and a war between the US and the UK which results in the loss of all of Oregon Country to the Britain.

Before we can even consider its effect on US Pacific interests, though, this will have profound effects on the US at home. First, there's no annexation of Texas or Mexican Cession to prompt further concern about slavery after the Missouri Compromise. Second, expansionism (popular most in the South) has been dealt a serious blow. Third, the US has lost a war to Great Britain. The response to the last of these could provoke one of two primary responses: the US decides to centralize in order to avenge its defeat or the US decentralizes, as North (which has born the brunt of two wars) becomes more isolationist and the South demands the conquest of land suitable for the expansion of slavery. To accomplish the OP, you'd probably need the later, with an early, successful secession of the South. However, if say, the movement to free slaves succeeds in Virginia in the 1830s, that could well be changed.

From this point on, the question becomes, Is there another North American nation that has significant coastlines on both the Pacific and the Atlantic and that is politically stable, economically dynamic, and growing enough to take the geopolitical place of the US? There are two possibilities, either Canada or Mexico. (Canada's relative small temperate zone is compensated for by the fact that Britain's sphere of influence may well include Central America and even Mexico, giving it de facto hegemony over North America, doubly so with a successful CSA and/or a collection of Mexican successor states rather than single powerful one).

In the short term of the 19th century, though, Britain will probably de facto become more powerful in the Pacific than OTL. IMO this will increase British tensions with Russia: first, there's the status of Alaska (the Russians probably wouldn't sell to the British; the British would rather have to take Alaska by force or at a bargaining table). Second, Russia is the only other European power with significant power projection capabilities in the Pacific (unless the Dutch join a Grossdeutchland) until late in the 19th century (when you'd expect the French to have caught up). There is a possibility for a resurgent Spain, but that either comes late in the game (and is probably part of some wider alliance) or is pretty hard to manage. A wider war between Russia and Great Britain isn't difficult to manufacture, and if so, the Pacific may well feature as a larger theater.

The next most significant variable is whether (and if so, how) China and Japan might emerge as industrial nations. The lack of the US' Pacific coast here won't have big effects until a bit later, but even OTL the Japanese were considerable enough that the UK signed an alliance with them, in order to make certain their navy didn't become a threat. IMO, one of the two countries will pull itself up and it will eventually grow to challenge Great Britain in the early 20th century for dominance in the Pacific. Depending on the details, Britain might prevail, but if it gets caught up in a wider war in Europe (i.e. a World War I happens), it will be hard. Even if a Pacific War doesn't happen as part of that initial conflict, the European War itself has the potential to significantly exhaust British resources (as OTL's WWI did) limiting Britain's financial strength and thus its staying power in later contests. Here is where the lack of a US may be most telling. Assuming that Britain is eclipsed (and in this TL while Britain herself may wane, a much more potent commonwealth including the white, settler Dominions / Kingdoms could continue to have significant power projection into the late 20th century), if there is not a natural successor to the US in North America, than odds are an Asian power could rise to dominance in the Pacific. There's potential for a South American candidate, but such a country doesn't have the proximity to European markets (and consequent likely economic strength) that North American candidates might offer.

All of which is to say, that it's hard to simply say that Pearl Harbor wouldn't have happened or that there would be no Open Door Policy, because such a huge dynamic of geopolitics would have been changed (and a good chunk of US history altered).
 
Nicomacheus

Interesting analysis but I think octaviuz is referring to no territories [except possibly Alaska] beyond the 48, i.e. they still have the 3 Pacific coast states. This is somewhat easier to arrange I think. As he suggests possibly if Britain gets a protectorate over the Sandwich Is then America may not look further west.

In that case a lot could possibly remain largely unchanged until after WWI. Get somewhat more difficult then as much less likelihood of conflict between the US and Japan. [Still be economic clashes in China and disputes over discrimination against Japanese settlers in the US. Will also be similar clashes with the British dominions as well. The US will still argue against the Anglo-Japanese alliance, claiming it is directed against them. Might therefore get a similar Washington Treaty or possibly the survival of the alliance and no treaty.

If you do get the OTL path it could be rather nasty for Britain. Not sure whether its major Pacific naval base would be Singapore or Pearl, probably still the former, but without US bases in the Philippines or Hawaii its not too difficult to see a militarised/fascist Japan attacking Britain and avoiding war with the US.

Steve
 
Yeah, Nico's scenario is really intriguing but not what I was looking at (British Oregon, Mexican California and their several permutations have been explored a few times on this board).
I was specifically wondering about avoiding the seemingly inevitable conflict between Japan and the US (i.e. sea to shining sea but no Pacific islands). I'd actually forgotten about Alaska (it's a rather enormous piece of territory to overlook). The Japanese invaded the Aleutians during WWII, but would it have been a point of conflict without the Phillipines etc?
 
It would be fairly easy to keep Hawaii as a soverign state, maybe under British 'protection' while US companies may still be involved.

Limiting the Spanish-American War to the Carribean would be easy enough, especially if the US didn't have basing rights at Pearl Harbor.

In all likelihood, Japan's going to jump on Spain's holdings in the Pacific. Maybe sending them some money after the fact to salve their pride.

I really don't think any of this so far would effect the Russo-Japanesse War or World War I in any meaningful way. Japan's not about to take on Britain on it's own yet, so they'd just jump on Germany's colonies and send a few token units to the Mediterranian as they did OTL.

Twenty years down the road things may get more interesting. Japan's starting things with a decent Pacific Empire already and the US really isn't a factor other than an economic one, since the Pacific Fleet is based out of San Diego and certainly not in range for Japan to strike.

Maybe the US suddenly considers Japan too far away to bother policing and never turns off the oil. Maybe Japan just attacks Britain and the DEI instead of the US as well, and they stay out. Heck, maybe Japan decides to go North instead.
 
I was specifically wondering about avoiding the seemingly inevitable conflict between Japan and the US (i.e. sea to shining sea but no Pacific islands). I'd actually forgotten about Alaska (it's a rather enormous piece of territory to overlook). The Japanese invaded the Aleutians during WWII, but would it have been a point of conflict without the Phillipines etc?
My apologies for misunderstanding the OP.

I thought that the Japanese angle might be where you were going. You could pretty easily keep the Philippines out of the settlement of the Spanish-American War (Dewey misses the instructions from TR, or some such).

With the US in possession of the lower 48 and more or less where it was OTL economically, then Japan and the US will still have some tension over resources (oil) that they did OTL. Baring butterflies, FDR has every reason to stop selling oil to the Japanese once they begin outright war against Britain (and France and the Dutch) in South East Asia. However, the general tenor of relations is probably changed, since the US won't have military assets close to Japan (and vice versa).

Japan is still likely to attempt something that looks more or less like the strategy that led to Pearl Harbor (i.e. seize more bits of European Asia to gain resources), but TTL it may very well see the benefit of not attacking the US in the course of doing so. The Hawaiian islands would still be a nice piece of real estate for Japan to acquire (to control the central pacific). The most likely candidate for control of Hawaii is Britain. If the control is outright, then Japan probably attacks Hawaii. This may spook the US, but it's not an attack on US soil.

An interesting question is here is just who owns the Philippines after 1900. You can easily have Spain keep them (and some associated territories) through World War I (Spain is non-combattant, and both China and Japan were Allies). However, Spain is probably fighting a significant insurgent group (as the US was) and with fewer resources. This may provide the reason for a sale of the islands to Japan (IMO the most likely interest party) or for independence (in which case Japan probably becomes an ally by investing heavily). Either case may result in rather significant butterflies in Spain. If Japan acquires the islands through a peaceful sale, it may provoke interesting reactions from the Western powers, but no more so than Japanese actions in China did. The most interesting thing to consider is whether the potential for Japanese - Spanish interaction over the Philippines affects the Spanish diplomatic stance vis-a-vis Hitler and Mussolini. If Spain manages to keep the Philipines, it may because Japan lends a hand in quelling the rebellion and begins investing (in exchange for basing rights, etc.). Such a connection may push Mussolini formally into the Axis, particularly if Churchill finds reason to contemplate some sort of preemptive attack on the basis of giving the Japanese more substantial aid (TTL the Pacific Theatre will be more British centered, with a potentially Canadian Alaska under threat. Japanese resources that OTL went toward the Phillipines and Pearl may make invasion a much more real threat for Australia). However, it may be just as possible that Japanese acquisition of the Philippines prompts Spain to be more formally neutral or even an Allied belligerent.

Most significantly will probably be the lack of a Pearl Harbor. The Japanese wouldn't have reason to attack the US Pacific Coast itself (at least not in 1941). This leaves one to consider just how (or even whether) the US enters the war. IMO, the probability is that the US does indeed do so, but intervening events may change the field when the US enters (perhaps significantly enough to impact the nature of the war's end). FDR probably still prefers ratcheting up US involvement while looking for a casus belli (which could well appear in the course of the US effort to aid British convoys in the North Atlantic). The most significant change would be if British public opinion would continue to support Churchill after 1941. Since you'd probably still have some victories in the North African campaign, I tend to think you would. However, without American manpower, I'm uncertain how much Britain could do in so far as mounting an invasion of Europe (whether in Greece, Italy or France). If Spain is a belligerent, then British control of the Mediterranean may be threatened (since Gibraltar may be lost). I wonder if something like large conscript armies of Indians (and other colonial subjects) might see greater use as 1942 comes to an end (armed with American materiel). Very interesting consequences there (earlier Dominion status, a more divided India as a result of a more successful Bose, etc).
 
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