WI: Mongol India around 1300/Early Mughals

[Arkenfolm]

The Chagatai ruler Duwa launched numerous attacks on Punjab and Delhi regions in the 1290s and 1300s, ending only with his death. It appears to have been a major preoccupation of his rule, compared to his weaker predecessors who followed the powerful general Kaidu in warring with Yuan China over Mongolia and whereabouts. OTL, none of these invasions succeeded due to Delhi Sultanate ruler Alauddin Khalji's talent as a general, his skilled subordinates, and his economic policy permitting the raising of extensive armies. Additionally, Kaidu would not die until 1301, so the Chagatai rulers remained at war with Yuan China and the Ilkhanate.

If Kaidu died earlier/was sidelined somehow, do the invasions succeed? Looking at the evidence, it seems very plausible. Alauddin Khalji faced frequent rebellions and was at war with many neighboring Hindu/Rajput states--although he conquered much of India, his dynasty collapsed only a few years after his death and the Delhi Sultanate itself was in decay a generation later. He was also regarded as a tyrant and ordered numerous massacres, including of ethnic Mongols. Particularly notable is one massacre of mutineers who were Mongol converts to Islam who had come to serve Alauddin after initially serving the Chagatai. These men nearly killed Ulugh Khan, Alauddin's brother and one of his most talented generals, and the survivors who fled south to the kingdom of the powerful Hindu ruler Hammira Chauhan prompted an arduous 3 year campaign that ultimately ended in Hammira's defeat.

It should also be noted that Duwa proposed a joint attack on India with the Yuan after a final peace was made in 1304. To my knowledge this would not be an invasion through Tibet but would involve the Yuan lending Duwa a large contingent of soldiers.

If Alauddin is ultimately defeated and killed and the Chagatai, maybe with the aid of Hammira and the Gujarati ruler, just how far does Chagatai influence go in India? Do they just get a puppet state, or do we see the center of power within the Chagatai Khanate ultimately moving to India and thus have the Mughal Empire established over 2 centuries earlier?

What about religion? Duwa and most of his elite were Tengriists and Buddhists, although Islam had some prominence and there was a Christian minority. Aside from a war during the 1310s, relations with Yuan remained mostly peaceful, so there's counterbalances to Muslim influence, especially as some Yuan rulers like Kulug Khan were devout Buddhists. Does Chagatai/this Mughal Empire still convert to Islam, or do we get a Hindu or even Buddhist state dominating Central Asia? How does this effect India going forward?

 

[Arkenfolm]

Bumping this with another thought, if the Chagatai conquer the Delhi Sultanate, does it get directly governed or do they install a puppet Muslim ruler with plenty of autonomy like whatever top Delhi general joins them?

 

[Viking25]

Bumping this with another thought, if the Chagatai conquer the Delhi Sultanate, does it get directly governed or do they install a puppet Muslim ruler with plenty of autonomy like whatever top Delhi general joins them?

Thats what Timur did in OTL after his conquest of Delhi, but it could go either way. As a side note I don't think a potential Chagatai state in India would be much like the Mughal Empire because quite frankly the Mughals weren't all that Mongolian (The fact they aren't even Muslim is also a massive difference. Babur was pretty brutal in his treatment of non muslims from memory). They didn't to my knowledge stress their Mongolian roots all that much and if anything identified more with Timur than any Mongolian ruler(Shah Jahan wanted to conquer Samarkand specifically because it was Timur's old capital). The only thing the two really share is that they would both be speaking Chagatai Turkic and that honestly faded pretty quickly as a court language in the Mughal Empire.

 

[Arkenfolm]

Thats what Timur did in OTL after his conquest of Delhi, but it could go either way.

Ironically, it's probably better off as a vassal state since if someone like Duwa's son governs it, it could easily be used as a base for ruinous power struggles. Or maybe with Delhi, its wealth, its remaining Muslim elite, and its large Hindu peasantry could make a good base for giving the Chagatai Khanate some needed stability.

As a side note I don't think a potential Chagatai state in India would be much like the Mughal Empire because quite frankly the Mughals weren't all that Mongolian (The fact they aren't even Muslim is also a massive difference. Babur was pretty brutal in his treatment of non muslims from memory). They didn't to my knowledge stress their Mongolian roots all that much and if anything identified more with Timur than any Mongolian ruler(Shah Jahan wanted to conquer Samarkand specifically because it was Timur's old capital). The only thing the two really share is that they would both be speaking Chagatai Turkic and that honestly faded pretty quickly as a court language in the Mughal Empire.

Chagatai Khanate still had plenty of Muslims among their elite and at times did embrace Islam, and ruling Delhi gives another group of elite Muslims. So it could easily end up a Persianate Muslim state as the Mughals did.

 

[Viking25]

Chagatai Khanate still had plenty of Muslims among their elite and at times did embrace Islam, and ruling Delhi gives another group of elite Muslims. So it could easily end up a Persianate Muslim state as the Mughals did.

Key word being could, but like yourself said thats far from guarnateed.

Ironically, it's probably better off as a vassal state since if someone like Duwa's son governs it, it could easily be used as a base for ruinous power struggles. Or maybe with Delhi, its wealth, its remaining Muslim elite, and its large Hindu peasantry could make a good base for giving the Chagatai Khanate some needed stability.

I think its pretty likely that Duwa would move his capital to Delhi in this scenario. I am assuming India is richer than Transoxina at this time.

 

[Madhukar_Shah]

What would also have been plausible would have been an Ilkhanate conquest around 1260, had there been fewer trips to Mongolia needed for qurultais- I'd envisage, most likely a state approximating the boundaries of the ghaznavid empire, or if the chagatai do well early on, the Kushan empire.

Given the Mongol veneration of Sanskrit literate Buddhist teachers (cf Yuan Emperor Ayurparvata Khan, whose birth name was Sanskrit for mountain of longevity) , Kashmiri/Tibetan Buddhists would make highly appropriate governors for mongol territories in India- they know the local literary languages, but have no independent power base in the area, unlike Muslim nobles. This could lead to a chagatai khanate central Asia swinging Buddhist and becoming more connected to China and India than the Persianate sphere. Imagine a new era of Chinese travelogue writers describing India.

I don't think they'd base a capital in India though, at least until they'd given up hope of retaining influence in wider mongol politics of central Asia- a mobile court that makes circuits of Delhi, Lahore, Kabul and Samarkand a la the timurids seems much more feasible.

 

[VVD0D95]

What would also have been plausible would have been an Ilkhanate conquest around 1260, had there been fewer trips to Mongolia needed for qurultais- I'd envisage, most likely a state approximating the boundaries of the ghaznavid empire, or if the chagatai do well early on, the Kushan empire.

Given the Mongol veneration of Sanskrit literate Buddhist teachers (cf Yuan Emperor Ayurparvata Khan, whose birth name was Sanskrit for mountain of longevity) , Kashmiri/Tibetan Buddhists would make highly appropriate governors for mongol territories in India- they know the local literary languages, but have no independent power base in the area, unlike Muslim nobles. This could lead to a chagatai khanate central Asia swinging Buddhist and becoming more connected to China and India than the Persianate sphere. Imagine a new era of Chinese travelogue writers describing India.

I don't think they'd base a capital in India though, at least until they'd given up hope of retaining influence in wider mongol politics of central Asia- a mobile court that makes circuits of Delhi, Lahore, Kabul and Samarkand a la the timurids seems much more feasible.

Would they ever adopt Hinduism or remain within their specific. Unique religion?

 

[Arkenfolm]

What would also have been plausible would have been an Ilkhanate conquest around 1260, had there been fewer trips to Mongolia needed for qurultais- I'd envisage, most likely a state approximating the boundaries of the ghaznavid empire, or if the chagatai do well early on, the Kushan empire.

Given the Mongol veneration of Sanskrit literate Buddhist teachers (cf Yuan Emperor Ayurparvata Khan, whose birth name was Sanskrit for mountain of longevity) , Kashmiri/Tibetan Buddhists would make highly appropriate governors for mongol territories in India- they know the local literary languages, but have no independent power base in the area, unlike Muslim nobles. This could lead to a chagatai khanate central Asia swinging Buddhist and becoming more connected to China and India than the Persianate sphere. Imagine a new era of Chinese travelogue writers describing India.

Kashmir Buddhists, sure, but Tibetans answered directly to the Yuan emperor and even if they're nominally friendly, Chagatai can't get too close to Yuan. Although it wasn't like Tibet was a monolith and they had supported rebellions in Tibet so possibly could use the Tibetans (which might even be welcomed by Tibet's authorities as a means of removing rivals from the area). I can definitely see your point about increased travel from China.

I don't think they'd base a capital in India though, at least until they'd given up hope of retaining influence in wider mongol politics of central Asia- a mobile court that makes circuits of Delhi, Lahore, Kabul and Samarkand a la the timurids seems much more feasible.

It would give the Chagatai a way to escape future machinations of the House of Ogodei (i.e. Kaidu), since its well-removed from their homeland in Central Asia. But that could be a bad thing since it could lead to the khanate dividing in two.

Would they ever adopt Hinduism or remain within their specific. Unique religion?

Hinduism is probably the best since it is the religion of lower classes and neighbouring states, but I'm not sure if it's the one they'd go with. Islam is good because it's the religion of many other parts of the Chagatai Khanate and has a following among the military elite of the (former) Delhi Sultanate. Buddhism is a distant third choice since the Chagatai ruled over some Buddhists, the Yuan are Buddhist, and there was still a small minority in north India (and in Kashmir Buddhists were a majority until the early 14th century). But there's a long history of bad blood between the Chagatai and Yuan so even if the Indian Buddhist communities would benefit from the influx of Chinese/Korean pilgrims and monks and perhaps official renovations of temples and shrines, the Chagatai would probably not want to get too close to the Yuan in terms of faith.

Alternatively they never convert at all, outside of the occasional ruler who becomes Muslim or Hindu or Buddhist, and the government tries to maintain religious tolerance as the Mongols generally practiced.

 

[Madhukar_Shah]

Kashmir Buddhists, sure, but Tibetans answered directly to the Yuan emperor and even if they're nominally friendly, Chagatai can't get too close to Yuan

Depending on how early we have this conquest happening, the personalities of the Toluid civil war could be in completely different places resulting in a conflict that looks very different. Even if the yuan and whichever khanate is ranging into India (be it chagatai or the Ilkhanate) fall out, there are still enough family ties in the respective nobilities that mean Indo Mongols might see Tibetan networks as a useful tool to influence events in China and vice versa.

But that could be a bad thing since it could lead to the khanate dividing in two.

Don't hurry to label things as good or bad- groups that set themselves up across the Hindu Kush, then lose their territory outside the subcontinent often find themselves able to invest themselves fully in getting more of India, and can reap massive rewards.

Alternatively they never convert at all, outside of the occasional ruler who becomes Muslim or Hindu or Buddhist, and the government tries to maintain religious tolerance as the Mongols generally practiced.

Judging by the golden horde, who converted to Islam despite Christian vassals/majority peasantry/neighbours due to that being what other Mongols and steppe people's were doing in the Ilkhanate and chagatai khanate, I'd say your options are Islam and Buddhism- patronage of Buddhism though and the worship of Buddhist gods doesn't preclude joining in with Hindu ritual worship/ adopting local gods and goddesses.

 

[Madhukar_Shah]

I've just been reading about Ilkhanid patronage of Buddhism, and apparently for the forty years before Gazans conversion to Islam, the ilkhanid nobility collectively advanced about half of state revenue to Buddhist institutions, as far west as Azerbaijan and Armenia. That's a really striking claim and the paper I read suggests that in islamic versions of the Buddha's life he's painted in the clothes of a sufi saint and Buddhism is given an Arabian pedigree by claiming the Meccans were Buddhist before Islam.

I'd be really interested in a timeline where hulagu goes for Delhi instead of the otl Baghdad campaign, sets up a fifth subordinate khanate in the Punjab/consolidates ilkhanid Kashmir, and the extra access to Buddhist teachers from Kashmir and Nepal, the massive wealth gained from an Indian campaign, as well as less political pressure to convert to Islam because they rule more non Muslims means that the Ilkhanate is able to give Buddhism solid roots in places like Azerbaijan- enough so that when they collapse an alt Safavid group can come along and finish the job, resulting in a Buddhist Iran around 14-1500 that's actively creating new Buddhist communities in West Asia, a massive new group of Muslims that are suddenly a minority population. Whether the Romans or the Turks manage to dominate Anatolia, they'll have to look eastward to a much less familiar world, mesopotamia remains solidly Muslim but suddenly a very different type of borderland.

Bonus points for central Asia still being Muslim but with a slightly larger Buddhist minority, and Persian culture as a whole being even more secular than otl.


Early renaissance Italian nobles naming their children after ilkhans (as happened otl) in the hope of a prester John ending up with italianised versions of Sanskrit names- imagine Dharmasvami becoming something like Dormassame Orsini.

That's not even touching on the effects in India itself.

 

[Arkenfolm]

It occurred to me that having the Chaghatai Khanate be occupied with subduing India (and presumably the Ogedei ulus under Kaidu and his sons, nominally under Chaghatai rule, would either be occupied in conflict against the Chaghatai and the Yuan, or even warring amongst themselves) might have huge butterflies in the Levant. If they win in 1299, then Ghazan of the Ilkhanate will have no reason to remove his forces from the Levant in 1300/1301 because the Chaghatai are occupied in India. This means the Ilkhans can do a fullscale campaign in the Holy Land, which means the Templars and other Crusaders can begin a reclamation of the Holy Land starting from their initial base on Ruad in Syria (which they seized OTL hoping the Mongols would give them more aid). It appears the Mongols either seized or made a serious attempt at seizing Jerusalem in 1300, and if the Ilkhanate is more determined in that year, it could translate into a true, long-term occupation.

Considering that crusading was still popular in the early 14th century, this could lead to another Crusade, or at the very least would have a lot of ramifications on what OTL were the last days of the Knights Templar. Although I think a peace between the Mongol khanates in the 14th century is unlikely to last long, especially if the Chaghatai can grab northern India, or at least install someone paying a hefty tribute to them, and that means the Ilkhans will be back to dealing with the Chaghatai.

I've just been reading about Ilkhanid patronage of Buddhism, and apparently for the forty years before Gazans conversion to Islam, the ilkhanid nobility collectively advanced about half of state revenue to Buddhist institutions, as far west as Azerbaijan and Armenia. That's a really striking claim and the paper I read suggests that in islamic versions of the Buddha's life he's painted in the clothes of a sufi saint and Buddhism is given an Arabian pedigree by claiming the Meccans were Buddhist before Islam.

Title of the paper? I'm aware there were Buddhist Ilkhans, and it's definitely interesting the influence Chinese culture had among them.

I wonder just how this Ilkhanate Buddhism in your scenario would diverge from Buddhism in China or Southeast Asia. It probably would blend with tendencies of Sufism, but I'm not well read enough to speculate the details.