WI: Mary Tudor, the last Tudor

England returning (or even remaining) in the fold of the Catholic Church is a pretty common alternate history trope. Catherine of Aragon delivering a son, so the break never happens, or Mary Tudor managing to become pregnant and give birth to an heir. I love taking these alternate history tropes and turning them on their head, so... here we go.

Mary I succeeds to the throne as OTL, following the death of Edward VI—she pursues the Spanish marriage as OTL, with the same resulting fiasco. Elizabeth is consigned to the tower, but eventually released to Woodstock in May of 1554, as per OTL. While robust and healthy compared to her sister, Elizabeth falls ill during her winter at the dilapidated hunting palace, the sickness of your choice... but the result is the same: she passes away. Mary is in the first months of her 'pregnancy' and privately thinks it divine retribution.

Whispers abound that the queen has had some evil hand in this. Though a coroner's jury rules it a natural death, rumors will dog Mary for the rest of her reign. Her pregnancy is discovered to be a sham, to her bitter weeping—she claims the awful business of her sister's death has caused her to miscarry, though many in the queen's household report otherwise. By July of 1555, Mary's belly fully recedes, and in August Philip departs to command his armies in Flanders. Mary falls into a deep depression—Philip will not return to England until 1557.

Mary eventually dies on schedule in 1558. Without Elizabeth, Mary is the last of the Tudor line. The senior claim through blood falls to Mary Stuart, Queen of Scots, wed to the Dauphin of France—but she has no chance of attaining the throne. The English will not countenance it, nor would the Spanish. Mary personally wished for Margaret Douglas, the Countess of Lennox to succeed her—she is Catholic, and also has two sons to boot.

With Elizabeth gone, would she wrangle with Parliament to pass a succession act of her own? Through Henry's will, there is the possible succession of Frances Grey (mother of Jane, Katherine, and Mary)... in 1558 she is married to her Master of the Horse, however. She also dies in 1559, for even more fun. Aside from the Greys, there is also Margaret Clifford, daughter of Eleanor Brandon. She is young and married to the Earl of Derby.

For those who tire of the dreaded petticoat government, Yorkist blood flows in the veins of Henry Hastings, the Earl of Huntington.

What might happen next? Not only is the throne totally and completely up for grabs, but it will also effect the religious settlement in England, with the claimants all having a variety of religious views. With the French holding the little Queen of Scots, and Philip II as the widower of Queen Mary, I expect both Spain and France to have keen interest over the succession...
 

VVD0D95

Banned
Either the French push for Mary Queen of Scots, Margaret Douglas puts herself forward, or it breaks out into civil war?
 
Wouldn't Mary try to solve this problem once is evident that she should choose an heir? Did she ever stablish a line of succession IOTL in case she died childless?
 
Wouldn't Mary try to solve this problem once is evident that she should choose an heir? Did she ever stablish a line of succession IOTL in case she died childless?

OTL, is was obvious Elizabeth would succeed her if she was childless and therefore there was no need to set anything up. Remember, half a decade previously she herself had prevented a rival claimant of the previous King usurping her role under Henry VIII's will. Without Elizabeth, you're gonna have her look to a Catholic Succession. Obvious Catherine and Mary Grey are out. They come from a reasonably Protestant background and their sister was that very person Mary had to take down to get the throne. Mary Stuart is out, she's married to the French King. That leaves the Clifford Line and the Douglas Line. IMO, Margaret Douglas is most likely made the heir, if just because she is the more senior heir overall.
 
Yeah, Mary never made any moves IOTL to set up a succession. It's said that she privately wanted Margaret Douglas to succeed her, but she never attempted to make that a reality—the issue with Edward VI and his Device of the Succession may of been the reason, for as long as Elizabeth was alive and healthy, she was going to be seen as Mary's legitimate successor. Edward's attempts to meddle with the succession had been done away with, the same would have likely happened IOTL if Mary had attempted to name an heir that wasn't Elizabeth.

With Elizabeth out of the picture, I'm certain Mary will take steps to safe-guard the Catholic succession in the person of Margaret Douglas. She was favored by the queen for this, and she's of a reasonable age and reasonably married—and has two sons, as well. It'd make her the most attractive candidate, by far. I don't really see her having any issues

I guess the real issue is, could such a succession be sustained? I don't see any doubts to it being accepted, as she the most senior heir residing in England. For people like William Cecil, despite his Protestant religion, maintaining the legitimate succession was the most important thing. In lieu of Elizabeth, Margaret would have the best claim of those claimants within the realm, as she comes from Margaret Tudor's line, and has been raised and reared in England.

The Protestant party in England isn't completely beaten down, although I'm sure the death of Elizabeth would be a great blow to it. If Margaret managed to moderate her position compared to Mary, she could certainly make a go-of it—the religious situation in England was certainly a mess by that point, and nothing was cemented totally. The extreme Marian exiles would probably remain abroad.

Assuming Mary Stuart ends up widowed, it'd be easy enough to mollify her and her 'claim' to the English throne by arranging her marriage to Darnley, much as OTL. As a bigger bonus, he would be Prince of Wales in this situation and future King of England.
 
Ok so, Darnley (or, as he will be known, the Prince of Wales) will most likely be married to either one of the Grey girls around 1559 or the Queen of Scots come 1560. However, I doubt that the unsteady new English Dynasty would wait when it seems the Scottish Queen will stay in France, so I do see him being married around 1559 to Catherine Grey, or if she doesn't want to or is still married, then to Mary Grey. Let's say Mary Grey, and he has a few healthy kids before inevitably dying of syphilis (which he had OTL). Maybe he dies around the age of 30.

Margaret I of England (b.1515: d.1578) m. Matthew Stewart, Earl of Lennox (b.1516: d.1571) (a)

1a) Henry Stewart, Prince of Wales (b.1545: d.1577) m. Mary Grey (b.1545: d.1587) (a)

1a) Henry IX of England (b.1561: d.1605) m. Julianna of Nassau-Dillenburg (b.1564: d.1630) (a)

1a) Edward VII of England (b.1585)

2a) Sophia Stewart (b.1587)​

2a) Jane Stewart, Princess of England (b.1563: d.1564)

3a) Catherine Stewart, Princess of England (b.1564: d.1565)

4a) Charles Stewart, Duke of Clarence (b.1567: d.1612)

5a) Stillborn Son (c.1571)

6a) Margaret Stewart, Princess of England (b.1576: d.1659) m. Henry IV of France (b.1553: d.1610) (a)

1a) Marie de Bourbon, Fille de France (b.1601)

2a) Antoinette de Bourbon, Fille de France (b.1602)

3a) Louis de Bourbon, Dauphin of France (b.1604: d.1608)

4a) Charles X of France (b.1605)

5a) Stillborn Daughter (c.1607)

6a) Marguerite de Bourbon, Fille de France (b.1608)

7a) Nicholas Gaston de Bourbon, Duc d'Orleans (b.1610)​

2a) Charles Stewart, Duke of York and Earl of Lennox (b.1555: d.1576)​
 
I'm not really sure they'd arrange a match with the Greys. Yes, they have royal blood and reasonable claim to the throne, but it's still a junior claim to that of Margaret Douglas. I suppose it might mollify the Protestant party in England, but with the death of Elizabeth, they're going to be dealt a severe blow anyways—Katherine and Mary Grey weren't exactly the types to inspire confidence. In 1559, Darnley was still young and relatively healthy—so I don't really see why they'd rush to contract a quick match. If anything, Margaret would be able to use her new position as queen to scope out a proper Catholic princess for her son. A French princess, to cement the peace of Cateau-Cambresis?

It's still an interesting family tree, although butterflies abound would certainly mean that it's possible that Henri IV never comes to the throne. The last Valois were certainly sickly creatures, but Charles IX was capable of procreating at the very least.

It would be interesting, though... Darnley being already wed when Mary is inevitably widowed. It'd be interesting if they ended up meeting (she ends up landing in England due to storms, or the two courts meet in northern England as Elizabeth and Mary wished OTL) and had the same sexual attraction and chemistry. That'd be a giant mess in the most interesting sense... especially if he did end up marrying Mary Grey, who was lame and had a hunchback. Could the first scandal of Margarets reign be a fiasco where Darnley attempts to put his wife aside to marry the Scottish queen?

This already has so many ways it can go, I may develop it further.
 
I'm not really sure they'd arrange a match with the Greys. Yes, they have royal blood and reasonable claim to the throne, but it's still a junior claim to that of Margaret Douglas. I suppose it might mollify the Protestant party in England, but with the death of Elizabeth, they're going to be dealt a severe blow anyways—Katherine and Mary Grey weren't exactly the types to inspire confidence. In 1559, Darnley was still young and relatively healthy—so I don't really see why they'd rush to contract a quick match. If anything, Margaret would be able to use her new position as queen to scope out a proper Catholic princess for her son. A French princess, to cement the peace of Cateau-Cambresis?

It's still an interesting family tree, although butterflies abound would certainly mean that it's possible that Henri IV never comes to the throne. The last Valois were certainly sickly creatures, but Charles IX was capable of procreating at the very least.

It would be interesting, though... Darnley being already wed when Mary is inevitably widowed. It'd be interesting if they ended up meeting (she ends up landing in England due to storms, or the two courts meet in northern England as Elizabeth and Mary wished OTL) and had the same sexual attraction and chemistry. That'd be a giant mess in the most interesting sense... especially if he did end up marrying Mary Grey, who was lame and had a hunchback. Could the first scandal of Margarets reign be a fiasco where Darnley attempts to put his wife aside to marry the Scottish queen?

This already has so many ways it can go, I may develop it further.

One thing that I could say is that Mary, in her last days of life, attempts to make her cousin's rise to the throne easier by marrying the two royal lines together through a match between Henry Stewart and the Lady Mary Grey. The two are thus, at 13 married mere weeks before Margaret Douglas rises to be Margaret I of England. They have an unhappy marriage, due to the new Prince of Wales' arrogance and vanity, but a healthy son is born around 1560. The two seem to be falling into a happy routine at Ludlow when, after her husband, Francis II of France's death, the Queen of Scots makes an official visit to England to recognize her cousin, after her own claim is recognized. Thus, the Prince of Wales begins an affair with the Scottish Queen, apparently not going as far as full sex, but just far enough. The two become quite scandalous and the Queen of England requests the Queen of Scotland leave for her own country, after staying at the English Court for an additional 2 months, she leaves and, when the progress reaches Ludlow, where the Princess of Wales cares for her secondborn son, the Prince of Wales steals off with the Queen of Scots for Edinburgh, where he sends word to the Pope he wishes to set aside her humpbacked wife for the Scottish Queen.

This action leads to rumours across Europe that the Scottish Queen is pregnant with his child, that she has already had a son and even that they were lovers when she was the Queen of France, a ludicrous suggestion in itself. What is known is that the Queen of Scots soon realized her mistake, although her attraction to him remained strong, and in May of 1561 he returned to England without her or the annulment that he wanted and returned to Mary Grey, who in the meantime had earnt the sympathy and love of the people while he had become known as a bad husband and terrible Prince. A sign of reconciliation with his wife in the form of a third son does little for his image and he takes to prostitutes and mistresses, evidently catching syphilis in this way.

During this time, Mary, Queen of Scots finds herself without a husband, having been rejected by not only the Spanish but even the French, who find ample reason not to want her as their Queen again. Eventually she settles for a cousin, the Duke Henry of Guise, in 1564, shortly after news that her lover in England is expecting what will inevitably be a forth son. She and her French husband have a child, let's say a daughter named Mary de Guise, Princess of Scotland and Guise. Then, around 1565, the Princess of Wales, maybe in yet another childbirth or syphilis. Thus, the Queen of Scots deserts her young husband in Edinburgh and send a request to the Pope to annul her marriage so that she can finally marry the man she loves. Unfortunately the two are denied and instead they choose to live as practically husband and wife, which ends up with the two being excommunicated and Mary's child being proclaimed as Mary II, Queen of Scots.

The two ignore these events and in 1566 the titular Queen of Scots gives birth to James Stuart, who they proclaim as their heir even as the Queen is no longer a Queen and the Prince of Wales has multiple other sons. Extremely disappointed in her son, the Queen of England disinherits him as Prince of Wales and send him into exile, which he goes to with the titular Queen of Scots. They can't go back to Scotland, so they leave for France, where Mary lives on her actual husband's estates with her lover while her husband rules her country in the name of her daughter. Their son is joined by a brother in 1568, called Henry Stuart. Eventually, the Prince of Wales grows tired of his lover and formally requests permission to return to England and be forgiven for his crimes. Furious that the man she gave up everything for is attempting to leave her, Mary writes to all the heads in Europe, claiming her lover in fact raped her many times over and that he tricked her. Both fail in their endeavors and are kicked out of the Guise holdings. Thus, they sail together to Rome to have the Pope fix everything, which ends with neither of them getting what they want.

Mary's marriage to the Duke of Guise is annulled, although she finds herself forced into marriage with the titular Prince of Wales. He, however, is kept excommunicated and she finds herself an apparent traitor to the country she is meant to rule. Thus, they are left to languish in Rome for a time, until Mary leaves her husband to stay at the court in Brussels, where she stays as an impoverished guest with her sons. The titular Prince of Wales, meanwhile, dies in Rome of syphilis. While in Brussels, Mary sends letters to the Scottish Court with news that, due to her marriage with the Prince of Wales, her two sons are legitimate and thus the actual heirs to Scotland. No one buys that and they are not allowed back into the counrty.

That's all I got for now. That went on way too long.
 
Mary's legal heir is under the Third Act - the issue of Lady Frances Brandon (there is debate whether the wording of Henry's will excluded Frances and just left her children in line or was just bad phrasing in the document) and then the issue of her sister Lady Eleanor and then Henry VIII's "right heirs" which you could judge to be at the determination of his executors, successors and/or Parliament. Mary's relationship with Frances Brandon (the death of her daughter and husband not withstanding) was not bad and her relationship with Margaret Douglas was good as well (mind you the favour she showed Margaret was just as likely to have been a stick to beat Elizabeth with during the latter's lifetime).
Given Elizabeth's death then Mary might well have attempted to get Parliament to approve a new Act of Succession how successful she would be is interesting and it might drag on until after her death.
Philip will move heaven and earth to block anything that smacks of Mary Stuart inheriting - skipping Mary and leaving the throne to Margaret Douglas is one option but has risks (Margaret's claim will entirely rest on her English birth because she is not the lawful heir under strict primogeniture) - and risks continuing war with both Scotland and France - her and her husband are moderate in religion and will no doubt play the Catholic card to persuade Mary how they act after Margaret's accession might well be more moderate - her advantage of course is that she has two sons (both of whom have a distant claim to the Scots throne through Margaret's husband)
Frances Brandon again would be sticking to the spirit of the King's will and to Philip's point of view might be the better option although Protestant - she has a teenage unmarried daughter and Philip might be able to push for an alliance that keeps England in his sphere of influence in the case of Mary's childless death - Frances/Catherine Grey's advantage over Margaret Douglas will be that they are the clear legal heirs under both Statute and Henry VIII's will - it will appease Protestants in the short-term and if Catherine is betrothed/married to a Catholic it will appease both Spain and English Catholics.
The pretty obvious solution would be marrying Lady Catherine Grey and Henry Stuart Lord Darnley (uniting the two disparate claims into one strong one Catherine is only five years or so older than Henry) and proclaiming them joint heirs to Mary. Margaret's ambition would be satisfied and she can settle for being a power behind the throne (Frances Brandon can be excluded easily enough given her second low ranking marriage) - the new King and Queen inherit jointly but power initially rests with the Council - Margaret Douglas attempts to be named regent but the council refuse her attempts due to Catherine being of age - Darnley feels excluded and 1561 at 15 oressure from his mother forces his wife to declare him of age. Protestant exiles had returned to England under Catherine's short personal role and dominated her court particularly her step grandmother the Dowager Duchess of Suffolk this caused conflict between her and her mother in law Margaret Countess of Lennox who had the support of some of the old Catholic nobility. Despite the divide King Henry and Queen Catherine did conceive a child born in 1562 - and take it from there - suspect lots of rows between Henry and Catherine and wouldn't rule out someone finally getting rid of King Henry IX.

Henry Stuart Lord Darnley B1545
(King as Henry IX 1558)
m 1558
Catherine Grey B1540
(Queen from 1558)

Issue:

Edward Stuart Prince of Wales
b1562
 
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