WI Joseph I dies during the siege of Landau (1702) ?

[Gonzaga]

I was reading about the War of the Spanish Succession and I've found this interesting piece of information about the Siege of Landau, the only military operation that then Archduke Joseph (later Emperor Joseph I) participated:

The archduke visited the siege lines and even aimed some of the cannon. In one close call, Joseph was talking with a gunner when the man was hit in the chest by a bullet.

So, WI Joseph had been shot instead of the gunner? How would it affect the war, that by then was being fought for barely one year? I imagine that now, with Charles being the only heir to the Habsburg domains, the anti-Bourbon allies might not be so keen on letting him have the Spanish Empire as well. But would they just accept that the Spanish inheritance should go to Philip?

 

[unprincipled peter]

That would present a sticky wicket. OTL, Britain (or should I say England at this point?) and the Dutch Republic were willing to drop the Habsburg claim to Spain because
They didn't want Spain and Austria united.
At that point in time, it didn't look like Philip could be forced out without massive effort.
Everyone was war weary.

At this early date, Leopold is still alive, but old. Charles is not yet married.

Once wars start, they don't stop until weariness sets in, or one side kicks butt, so it is doubtful Britain/DR drops opposition to France until France agrees to partition.

The simple answer is to find an alternative candidate. OTL, Charles wanted to keep fighting for Spain even after he ascended in Austria and his allies were pressuring him to drop it. But, what were the alternatives? The two infant Savoy princes (archdukes?) had a claim, IF one eliminates the Bourbons because of the renunciation a couple generations back. Doubtful Leopold/Austria gives up a claim that easily, nor are they going to fight too hard to put a non Habsburg on the throne. in that event, they'd look to partition the Spanish Empire, and in that case, the allies are going to push for a compromise with France rather than spend another ten years at war. I don't think Spain has a salic law at the time, so one of Leopold's daughters might make a substitute. Would have to figure out how to bypass living male heirs to make that happen. Leopold could probably force Charles to renounce. Maybe marry off one of Joseph's daughters to a Savoy son? they're all infants/toddlers, so a lengthy regency (perhaps under a Leopold daughter?) is in order. Austria is going to want something out of an alternate candidate, so pieces of Italy are going to be carved off.

You might see the war continue on long enough for France and Austria to realize neither are going to take it all, and end up in a compromise peace a lot earlier than OTL. It's what Britain wants, so they'll angle for that at the earliest possibility.

 

[isabella]

That would present a sticky wicket. OTL, Britain (or should I say England at this point?) and the Dutch Republic were willing to drop the Habsburg claim to Spain because
They didn't want Spain and Austria united.
At that point in time, it didn't look like Philip could be forced out without massive effort.
Everyone was war weary.

At this early date, Leopold is still alive, but old. Charles is not yet married.

Once wars start, they don't stop until weariness sets in, or one side kicks butt, so it is doubtful Britain/DR drops opposition to France until France agrees to partition.

The simple answer is to find an alternative candidate. OTL, Charles wanted to keep fighting for Spain even after he ascended in Austria and his allies were pressuring him to drop it. But, what were the alternatives? The two infant Savoy princes (archdukes?) had a claim, IF one eliminates the Bourbons because of the renunciation a couple generations back. Doubtful Leopold/Austria gives up a claim that easily, nor are they going to fight too hard to put a non Habsburg on the throne. in that event, they'd look to partition the Spanish Empire, and in that case, the allies are going to push for a compromise with France rather than spend another ten years at war. I don't think Spain has a salic law at the time, so one of Leopold's daughters might make a substitute. Would have to figure out how to bypass living male heirs to make that happen. Leopold could probably force Charles to renounce. Maybe marry off one of Joseph's daughters to a Savoy son? they're all infants/toddlers, so a lengthy regency (perhaps under a Leopold daughter?) is in order. Austria is going to want something out of an alternate candidate, so pieces of Italy are going to be carved off.

You might see the war continue on long enough for France and Austria to realize neither are going to take it all, and end up in a compromise peace a lot earlier than OTL. It's what Britain wants, so they'll angle for that at the earliest possibility.

Austria would get Milan under any scenario as it is an Imperial fief and so the Emperor is the one entitled to assign the feud after the extinction of the Spanish male line.
Spain had no Salic law so at that point putting one of Joseph’s daughters as Queen of Spain would be likely the best plan. Savoy‘s claim is the most junior of all and they are allied with France (both the daughters of the Duke are married ti Louis XIV’s grandsons). If Leopold want put one of his own daughters on the Spanish throne he can simply bypass Charles, who is now his heir, as he passed over Joseph earlier

 

[unprincipled peter]

Austria would get Milan under any scenario as it is an Imperial fief and so the Emperor is the one entitled to assign the feud after the extinction of the Spanish male line.
Spain had no Salic law so at that point putting one of Joseph’s daughters as Queen of Spain would be likely the best plan. Savoy‘s claim is the most junior of all and they are allied with France (both the daughters of the Duke are married ti Louis XIV’s grandsons). If Leopold want put one of his own daughters on the Spanish throne he can simply bypass Charles, who is now his heir, as he passed over Joseph earlier

I agree with you, overall, but...
Leopold/Austria isn't deciding things in a vacuum. He can't achieve much of anything without the power of Britain/Dutch Republic. Hence, their attitudes in this have to be considered. They may not take to the idea of bypassing male heirs just because Leopold wants to. Technically, I don't think he can decide to bypass Charles - he would pressure Charles to renounce - if Charles has reached majority. I could be mistaken, but I think weak male claims trump stronger female claims.

Savoy would switch sides in a heartbeat if the throne were offered, which is exactly what they did once Britain/Austria gained the upper hand in Italy.

Regarding Milan, whomever wins the war gets to decide who inherits it. The bottom line of any war is to the victor go the spoils.

All in all, a sticky wicket, probably benefits France even if the main benefit is same result, but an earlier conclusion.

 

[isabella]

I agree with you, overall, but...
Leopold/Austria isn't deciding things in a vacuum. He can't achieve much of anything without the power of Britain/Dutch Republic. Hence, their attitudes in this have to be considered. They may not take to the idea of bypassing male heirs just because Leopold wants to. Technically, I don't think he can decide to bypass Charles - he would pressure Charles to renounce - if Charles has reached majority. I could be mistaken, but I think weak male claims trump stronger female claims.

You really think who Austria’s allies would object to Charles being passed over for Spain once he become the heir of Austria? Seriously? 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂. And about Leopold being unable to do it, Joseph was passed over in the same way and for the same reason and if Joseph is dead and Charles is heir of Austria his daughters can be good candidate for Spain, age aside, but that would NOT be an insuperable problem.

Savoy would switch sides in a heartbeat if the throne were offered, which is exactly what they did once Britain/Austria gained the upper hand in Italy.

Regarding Milan, whomever wins the war gets to decide who inherits it. The bottom line of any war is to the victor go the spoils.

Milan belong to Austria by right and the Emperor is free to assign it to anyone he want as soon Carlos II died

All in all, a sticky wicket, probably benefits France even if the main benefit is same result, but an earlier conclusion.

Not with Leopold still alive and able to change the Imperial candidate

 

[Gonzaga]

Austria would get Milan under any scenario as it is an Imperial fief and so the Emperor is the one entitled to assign the feud after the extinction of the Spanish male line.
Spain had no Salic law so at that point putting one of Joseph’s daughters as Queen of Spain would be likely the best plan. Savoy‘s claim is the most junior of all and they are allied with France (both the daughters of the Duke are married ti Louis XIV’s grandsons). If Leopold want put one of his own daughters on the Spanish throne he can simply bypass Charles, who is now his heir, as he passed over Joseph earlier

While I think that putting one one of Joseph's daughters (probably Maria Josepha) as queen of Spain would be sensible, I'm not sure it would be a solution accepted by France after the war was already going on. I wonder if she could be used in some kind of arrangement, like giving Spain and its Empire to the Bourbons, but Maria Josepha becomes Queen of Naples and Sicily, or she receives the Spanish Netherlands.

 

[isabella]

While I think that putting one one of Joseph's daughters (probably Maria Josepha) as queen of Spain would be sensible, I'm not sure it would be a solution accepted by France after the war was already going on. I wonder if she could be used in some kind of arrangement, like giving Spain and its Empire to the Bourbons, but Maria Josepha becomes Queen of Naples and Sicily, or she receives the Spanish Netherlands.

France need to lose the war (and will likely do it in the end, if the allies are not stuck with the actual Emperor (who they do not want on the Spanish throne) as their only candidate

 

[unprincipled peter]

You really think who Austria’s allies would object to Charles being passed over for Spain once he become the heir of Austria? Seriously? 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂. And about Leopold being unable to do it, Joseph was passed over in the same way and for the same reason and if Joseph is dead and Charles is heir of Austria his daughters can be good candidate for Spain, age aside, but that would NOT be an insuperable problem.

Milan belong to Austria by right and the Emperor is free to assign it to anyone he want as soon Carlos II died

Not with Leopold still alive and able to change the Imperial candidate

I was referring to alternate candidates to Charles. The allies aren't going to object to bypassing Charles, but they are going to want a say in who that alternate is. Ultimately, Charles made for the best alternate to the Bourbon candidates (once the compromise Bavarian died) at the start of the war. That changes once Joseph dies. If Charles isn't acceptable (which he absolutely won't be if he is the sole candidate for both Austria and Spain), the Bourbons start gaining a lot more acceptability, including within Spain. There may be objections to bypassing male Savoy, who have a legitimate claim.

The Emperor is free to assign Milan to anyone he wants. However, he has to enforce his decision. Situation on the ground will dictate the eventual disposition. For that, he needs allies.

Leopold/Austria can not dictate his will on the world. Austria needs military allies to achieve its goals. Those allies will have other goals (Britain wants to break up the Spanish Empire, Dutch wants to keep France away from Netherlands, but is willing to compromise elsewhere). This isn't a case of whatever Leopold wants is fiat.

At the time, France was dominant militarily. The Allies are unlikely to capitulate immediately, but will fight on to gain a better hand at the bargaining table. IF we still progress as OTL, and we see stalemate circa 1705, Britain and the Dutch are likely to see compromise as a good option, especially if Spain shows no appetite for the Habsburg/Savoy candidate (a female and/or a decade away from maturity).