WI Gustav Adolf captured by Poles at Tczew (Dirschau, 1627)?

[marcinL]

When scouting the battlefield only with his aide, Gustav Adolf ran into three banners of Polish cavalry and was saved only by quick action of his nearby escort, which was defeated though, and Poles chased him all the way into Swedish camp.

Now what if Poles get more lucky, and some random shot, or whatever kills Gustav's horse. The king is stuck under the dead horse with a broken leg, his escort cannot recover him, and before help can come Poles take him to their camp? What would be the effects on Polish-Swedish conflict and broader future of the region, both branches of Vasa House and so on?

 

[alexmilman]

When scouting the battlefield only with his aide, Gustav Adolf ran into three banners of Polish cavalry and was saved only by quick action of his nearby escort, which was defeated though, and Poles chased him all the way into Swedish camp.

Now what if Poles get more lucky, and some random shot, or whatever kills Gustav's horse. The king is stuck under the dead horse with a broken leg, his escort cannot recover him, and before help can come Poles take him to their camp? What would be the effects on Polish-Swedish conflict and broader future of the region, both branches of Vasa House and so on?

Surely, they would not impale him (even if this could save a lot of lives in a long run).

He could be forced to make a peace with some concessions but as soon as he is out, this peace treaty would not worth a paper (or parchment) on which it is written. The PLC still does not have a modern army capable of defending the fortified places and there is still no effective infantry and artillery, not to mention that after the ...er... “glorious victory” Sejms (both Polish and Lithuanian) would be even more reluctant to grant money for the military purposes, especially for army modernization. Why bother if besides the olde glory of Kircholm and Klushino there is a brand new glory of Tczew? (Details would not matter as far as it is Polish cavalry covering itself with a brand new glory).

It would take some time for GA to retake the areas lost by the peace treaty (depending upon the situation, some of these places may not even being re-occupied by the Polish troops because there are none available) and then we are back to the OTL on a slightly delayed time table. Swedish entry into the 30YW may be delayed and as a side effect Tsardom may try to retake the territories lost in the Ingrian War (taking into an account that Tsardom is still weak militarily and the Swedish army is not damaged, the war would be probably lost).