WI: Easter 1916 handled by the book.

[Some Bloke]

Based on an idea in This Thread.

A less heavy handed approach to the aftermath of the Easter Rising in 1916, specifically following the letter of the law in conducting the trials/courts martial. IOTL the proceedings were in secret, without any defence, and there were officers on the panel who were directly involved in the events themselves,
a conflict of interest that was explicitly forbidden under military law.

Here, none of this happens, there are more acquittals, fewer executions, and the
fallout re: public opinion is mitigated.

The Ulster Covenant has already happened, so I suspect the whole of Ireland is still
in for some tough times after WWI.

How does a less bloody, less overbearing policy after the uprising affect things during
and after WWI?

 

[Catsmate]

Based on an idea in This Thread.

A less heavy handed approach to the aftermath of the Easter Rising in 1916, specifically following the letter of the law in conducting the trials/courts martial. IOTL the proceedings were in secret, without any defence, and there were officers on the panel who were directly involved in the events themselves,
a conflict of interest that was explicitly forbidden under military law.

Here, none of this happens, there are more acquittals, fewer executions, and the
fallout re: public opinion is mitigated.

The Ulster Covenant has already happened, so I suspect the whole of Ireland is still
in for some tough times after WWI.

How does a less bloody, less overbearing policy after the uprising affect things during
and after WWI?

A less overwhelming Sinn Féin majority in the 1918 election. Possibly no immediate declaration of the Republic and War of Independence but there are other factors in play, such as the laughable "German Plot" and the British attempt to extend conscription to Ireland.

 

[Some Bloke]

For story purposes, I'm going to assume that the UK government doesn't
even attempt conscription in Ireland, they barely placated the Irish public after
the Rising and they don't want to give any opponents any more excuses.

 

[Pangur]

Based on an idea in This Thread.

A less heavy handed approach to the aftermath of the Easter Rising in 1916, specifically following the letter of the law in conducting the trials/courts martial. IOTL the proceedings were in secret, without any defence, and there were officers on the panel who were directly involved in the events themselves,
a conflict of interest that was explicitly forbidden under military law.

Here, none of this happens, there are more acquittals, fewer executions, and the
fallout re: public opinion is mitigated.

It would have to be no executions rather than fewer

The Ulster Covenant has already happened, so I suspect the whole of Ireland is still
in for some tough times after WWI.

How does a less bloody, less overbearing policy after the uprising affect things during
and after WWI?

Perhaps however the issue of Home Rule would rear its head. The National Volunteers would settle for nothing less and the loyalists would have a differnt view.

 

[Catsmate]

It would have to be no executions rather than fewer

Which isn't just unlikely it's effectively impossible.

Perhaps however the issue of Home Rule would rear its head. The National Volunteers would settle for nothing less and the loyalists would have a differnt view.

Agreed. Home Rule, probably on more generous terms than 1914 would be the minimum. The problem of Ulster could be handled via partition relatively easily.

For story purposes, I'm going to assume that the UK government doesn't
even attempt conscription in Ireland, they barely placated the Irish public after
the Rising and they don't want to give any opponents any more excuses.

That would require more common sense and less desperation than existed in 1918 in the UK.

 

[Pangur]

Which isn't just unlikely it's effectively impossible.

and there is the problem

Agreed. Home Rule, probably on more generous terms than 1914 would be the minimum. The problem of Ulster could be handled via partition relatively easily.

Which sets up the same sorry mess we have todau

That would require more common sense and less desperation than existed in 1918 in the UK.

and perhaps there is the real problem

 

[Some Bloke]

A less overwhelming Sinn Féin majority in the 1918 election. Possibly no immediate declaration of the Republic.

Assuming these two come to pass, how do you suppose this affects the political scene at the war's end?

 

[Catsmate]

and there is the problem

Well yes.

Which sets up the same sorry mess we have todau

Well there is the possibility of a less messy solution. Perhaps Norn Iron is reduced to an irrelevence, with Fermanagh, Tyrone and Derry City added to the south?

and perhaps there is the real problem

Indeed. Lack of common sense and the ability to develop reasonable solution is an endemic human problem.

 

[Pangur]

Well yes.

Well there is the possibility of a less messy solution. Perhaps Norn Iron is reduced to an irrelevence, with Fermanagh, Tyrone and Derry City added to the south?

Derry would be the best bet of the three

Indeed. Lack of common sense and the ability to develop reasonable solution is an endemic human problem.

Quite

 

[yulzari]

Let us remember the reason why partition came about IOTL. It was, and is, impossible to reconcile the base requirements of both Republicans and Loyalists. They have no overlap. Neither the British nor the (then nascent) Irish government was either willing or able to coerce the Loyalists into a united Ireland at the point of the bayonet. Partition is inevitable unless you propose an Irish genocide of protestants in the north.

Post partition both Dublin and Westminster did their best to ignore Ulster in the vague hope that it would become the problem of some future government so assorted issues went unaddressed until public disobedience brought them to the fore and had to be dealt with.

Given that partition is inevitable perhaps incorporating Ulster into Scotland would have been a better option whereby it would have to abide by Scottish practices and Home Rule extended to all four nations of the Union. Essentially a federal Union. For the fun of it I suggest a federal government based in Liverpool which has main connections to all four nations by rail or ferry.

 

[sparky42]

Well there is the possibility of a less messy solution. Perhaps Norn Iron is reduced to an irrelevence, with Fermanagh, Tyrone and Derry City added to the south?

Not going to happen, the Unionists agreed to the 6 counties as it was the minimum felt to be economically viable while having the largest amount of control, they aren't going to accept something they feel will explicitly result in state unit that can't sustain itself long term.

 

[AvatarOfKhaine]

I think Ulster would be much less of a problem that IOTL, with only religion and less care about the monarchism vs republicanism.

I'd also argue that Irish-ness would be much less strong and much more tied to English/British-ness and thus there is also less cultural issues.

Put simply, an Irish Dominion has less conflicts in Northern Ireland due to the whole area being more tied to Britain itself.

 

[ShortsBelfast]

Not going to happen, the Unionists agreed to the 6 counties as it was the minimum felt to be economically viable while having the largest amount of control, they aren't going to accept something they feel will explicitly result in state unit that can't sustain itself long term.

At the same time, they didn't want areas with an inbuilt nationalist majority, tried three times to swap South Armagh for Lifford during the Border negotiations. Might have been open to handing over South Fermanagh and making Enniskillen a border town. Likewise might have been open to an East and West Tyrone or Londonderry (the County) partition? Not all of those though -pick two.
They're not going to give up South Down however, they need it for the reservoirs. But the Dublin side might have got Newry if they had been prepared to sacrifice Lifford in the deal perhaps?
But one or two problems. Pre 1945, arguably indeed pre 1960, Derry/Londonderry is a hugely important strategic port for Britain in keeping the Atlantic route open. Needs advances in anti-submarine technologies and aircraft ranges before the British would be pressing Belfast to hand it over. Secondly, there has been a significant demographic shift and the Unionist population has increasingly moved to the East of the Province over the last seventy years. They were more widely geographically dispersed in 1919 and consolidated as Belfast boomed and small farms became uneconomic and textile mills closed. Today Derry and Newry are 90%+ Nationalist towns/cities and Omagh over 70% Nationalist . Back in 1919 however Derry was still around 35% Unionist and Newry nearer 40% Unionist and Omagh would have had a small Unionist majority.

 

[Catsmate]

Not going to happen, the Unionists agreed to the 6 counties as it was the minimum felt to be economically viable while having the largest amount of control, they aren't going to accept something they feel will explicitly result in state unit that can't sustain itself long term.

Exactly. The Unionists wanted NI to be a viable state, the Nationalists did not.
However there was a British proposal for a four county NI.

 

[Catsmate]

I think Ulster would be much less of a problem that IOTL, with only religion and less care about the monarchism vs republicanism.

I'd also argue that Irish-ness would be much less strong and much more tied to English/British-ness and thus there is also less cultural issues.

Put simply, an Irish Dominion has less conflicts in Northern Ireland due to the whole area being more tied to Britain itself.

I disagree. By 1914 the divisions were entrenched, 1916 exacerbated things and 1918 set the mess alight.

 

[Some Bloke]

@Catsmate So if we assume there is no immediate declaration of Independence in 1918 as per your initial post,
and that things are still going to go steadily down hill as per your most recent, do you suppose the partition plan will be the trigger for the next crisis?

 

[AvatarOfKhaine]

I disagree. By 1914 the divisions were entrenched, 1916 exacerbated things and 1918 set the mess alight.

And divisions can heal, just like with Nationalism in for example Quebec.

I don't think their would be no problems, but whether "Ulster" remains a part of the UK or becomes a part of this Irish Dominion then I would say that by the 1940s with a new generation of "Loyal"-ish Irish people who only know home rule. I fail to see them or the previous generations making religion this be all and end all thing.

This also forgets that I think a Dominion/Kingdom of Ireland would likely see the modern GFA-equivalent in place due to the obvious proximity and even more so with them being "brother states and the core of the Empire". By the 1940s I just think that the legal status of either the Catholics in Ulster or Protestants in Ireland would be such that they'd be mostly happy to remain normal citizens of either state.

This also ignores that assuming an orderly transition to Home Rule after the War as part of the promise made due to its delay as the war begun that the National Volunteers will probably form a parliamentary group rather than a paramilitary one. And if the NV's try to start something against loyal citizens in a United Irish Dominion they they'll be shat upon by the British for attacking loyal citizens of the empire.

I think that unless something radical shifts that in a Home Rule situation there would be no real issues with regards to Ulster.

 

[Catsmate]

At the same time, they didn't want areas with an inbuilt nationalist majority, tried three times to swap South Armagh for Lifford during the Border negotiations. Might have been open to handing over South Fermanagh and making Enniskillen a border town. Likewise might have been open to an East and West Tyrone or Londonderry (the County) partition? Not all of those though -pick two.
They're not going to give up South Down however, they need it for the reservoirs. But the Dublin side might have got Newry if they had been prepared to sacrifice Lifford in the deal perhaps?
But one or two problems. Pre 1945, arguably indeed pre 1960, Derry/Londonderry is a hugely important strategic port for Britain in keeping the Atlantic route open. Needs advances in anti-submarine technologies and aircraft ranges before the British would be pressing Belfast to hand it over. Secondly, there has been a significant demographic shift and the Unionist population has increasingly moved to the East of the Province over the last seventy years. They were more widely geographically dispersed in 1919 and consolidated as Belfast boomed and small farms became uneconomic and textile mills closed. Today Derry and Newry are 90%+ Nationalist towns/cities and Omagh over 70% Nationalist . Back in 1919 however Derry was still around 35% Unionist and Newry nearer 40% Unionist and Omagh would have had a small Unionist majority.

Queenstown/Cobh was considered more important, hence it's status.


As a more general point I believe participants in this thread are mis-emphasising the relative important of Norn Iron and the status of an independent Ireland. In the debates around the Anglo-Irish treaty there was almost no discussion of NI and it's status; both sides tacitly recognised that partition was an insoluble issue.
The debate concentrated on the international status of the newly independent Irish state and (to a far lesser extent) on classic economic issues. Yes Free Trade was more important than Belfast.

The revolutionaries of 1922 (and hence those of an alternate 1918 or even 1916) were far more focussed on severing the ties with Britain than on establishing an all-Ireland state. It was an almost obsessive element of Irish politics up to 1918.

 

[Catsmate]

And divisions can heal, just like with Nationalism in for example Quebec.

A healing that takes decades. We've seen one such recently and it's still raw.

I don't think their would be no problems, but whether "Ulster" remains a part of the UK or becomes a part of this Irish Dominion then I would say that by the 1940s with a new generation of "Loyal"-ish Irish people who only know home rule. I fail to see them or the previous generations making religion this be all and end all thing.

I'm sorry but based on my, quite extensive, knowledge of Irish history this is ridiculous.

 

[Catsmate]

Assuming these two come to pass, how do you suppose this affects the political scene at the war's end?

The UK holds an election, the IPP doesn't collapse as badly and holds around fifteen seats. A somewhat less extreme Sinn Féin (given that Tom Gay doesn't manage things as well) gains around 65 seats.
There is an immediate demand for the implementation of the 1914 GoI Act in full.
The ball is in Lloyd-George's court.