WI: Christoph, Duke of Lolland Survives, or No Kalmar Union

[Kellan Sullivan]

After looking around the forum, I can't seem to find much on the survival of Valdemar IV's son - besides these two threads most recently. So, let's set the POD in July 1362, since Christopher was injured during the battle of Helsingborg, the wounds from which eventually killed him, or he was injured and went mentally unhinged afterwards. His sister Ingeborg may or may not be married to the duke of Mecklenburg (I can only find a 1362 wedding date, no day/month); while Margareta is not wed yet, but has been betrothed to the king of Norway since she was 6-years-old. Plus, his little brother, Valdemar (b.1350) is still alive (he only died in June 1363).

Ergo, if he's not wounded/crazy due to this battle, how do things go for Scandinavia?

 

[Bastiram]

An interesting question indeed.

Let's divide each Scandinavian country up.

Norway. Obviously it won't fall into PU with Denmark. Young Olaf will be raised in Norway instead of Denmark (going with his Father dying as OTL), I would still bet on that Margrethe becomes regent of Olaf, but obviously just Regent of Norway and not Denmark. If Olaf dies as OTL, we're in a pickle, because he have no brothers. Maybe one of his eventual cousins, A third son of Christopher etc. would be a option, creating a cadet Estrid line in Norway, under the continuous regency of Margrethe. If not, I could see Christopher mess in Norway, going after Viken, which there was a historical happened earlier for.

Denmark: a continuation of the Estrid dynasty is the first. Which Is nice it was a far more impressive dynasty than the later Oldenburg one (IMO) Considering Christopher's family relations, I think a good bet that he would be above decent at ruling (Considering his sister Margrethe and his Father Valdemar IV's are both impressive figures) He is in a pretty good position, with Norway being regarded as an ally. He will continue contesting the Hanseatic league for dominance in the Baltic.

Sweden: I am going with OTL, so Albrecht of Mecklenburg will become king in 1364. Eventually the Swedish nobles will get tired of him, and want to get rid of him. Naturally they wont look to Northern Germany, that is where the got the bastard. Instead they have two options (IMO) Norway and Denmark. Norway at that point (1389) just recently lost Olaf in 1387, and as such it depend on who rules it, Margrethe as a regent for a nephew, or if not it is probably in a civil war of sorts. Undoubtedly Norway would not have the resources that OTL Margrethe had. As such, it would probably not have the power to contest the Mecklenburgs, I might be wrong though. Another option is to look to Denmark as OTLish. Christoper might be an option, but probably not if he is fighting a war in Norway. Another option would again be a second/third son. counting on him getting at least two

I dont think we will see the Kalmar union emerge, but I do think Denmark will get into a stronger period than before. For example with different Estridsen cadet branches ruling both Norway and Sweden. One thing is for sure there will still be a Scandinavian reaction to the increased power of North Germany in the baltic

 

[von Adler]

An interesting question indeed.

Let's divide each Scandinavian country up.

Norway. Obviously it won't fall into PU with Denmark. Young Olaf will be raised in Norway instead of Denmark (going with his Father dying as OTL), I would still bet on that Margrethe becomes regent of Olaf, but obviously just Regent of Norway and not Denmark. If Olaf dies as OTL, we're in a pickle, because he have no brothers. Maybe one of his eventual cousins, A third son of Christopher etc. would be a option, creating a cadet Estrid line in Norway, under the continuous regency of Margrethe. If not, I could see Christopher mess in Norway, going after Viken, which there was a historical happened earlier for.

Denmark: a continuation of the Estrid dynasty is the first. Which Is nice it was a far more impressive dynasty than the later Oldenburg one (IMO) Considering Christopher's family relations, I think a good bet that he would be above decent at ruling (Considering his sister Margrethe and his Father Valdemar IV's are both impressive figures) He is in a pretty good position, with Norway being regarded as an ally. He will continue contesting the Hanseatic league for dominance in the Baltic.

Sweden: I am going with OTL, so Albrecht of Mecklenburg will become king in 1364. Eventually the Swedish nobles will get tired of him, and want to get rid of him. Naturally they wont look to Northern Germany, that is where the got the bastard. Instead they have two options (IMO) Norway and Denmark. Norway at that point (1389) just recently lost Olaf in 1387, and as such it depend on who rules it, Margrethe as a regent for a nephew, or if not it is probably in a civil war of sorts. Undoubtedly Norway would not have the resources that OTL Margrethe had. As such, it would probably not have the power to contest the Mecklenburgs, I might be wrong though. Another option is to look to Denmark as OTLish. Christoper might be an option, but probably not if he is fighting a war in Norway. Another option would again be a second/third son. counting on him getting at least two

I dont think we will see the Kalmar union emerge, but I do think Denmark will get into a stronger period than before. For example with different Estridsen cadet branches ruling both Norway and Sweden. One thing is for sure there will still be a Scandinavian reaction to the increased power of North Germany in the baltic

Two of the reasons the Kalmar Union came into existance was that the black death absolutely gutted Norway - casualties were 50-80% and due to the allodement law which meant peasants could move to vacated free land (not owned by church or nobility) and claim it as their own if no-one else did in 60 years. All the tenants of the nobility moved, forcing the nobility to revert to becoming peasants themselves. There were simply very few to none to contend for the Norwegian throne.

Meanwhile, in Sweden Bo Jonsson (Grip) had over a long time worked hard to reduce the power of the crown, meaning it had no power whatsoever to resist the nobility nor the Danish King Valdemar when he took back the counties purchased from Denmark.

Both Norway and Sweden were more or less at the mercy of any strong Danish monarch in this era - a few pretenders will not change that.

 

[ByzantineLover]

If Christopher and his younger brother Valdemar survive, and if Olaf IV of Norway still dies in 1387, perhaps Valdemar could be the Danish candidate for the Swedish throne while Norway either remains with Margaret or is passed on to Christopher.

As for Christopher's queen, the candidates, at least in my mind, are Catherine of Bohemia (daughter of HRE Charles IV), and Marie of France (daughter of John II & Bonne of Bohemia). And for Valdemar Junior, I'd guess either Joan of France (daughter of Philip VI & Blanche of Navarre), Taddea Visconti.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

@Bastiram wow, thanks for the breakdown. I agree that Estridsen cadet branches in Norway or Sweden would be cool, but I was wondering if you know of any reason why Margareta couldn't give Hakon more children? I can accept she was possibly damaged by the pregnancy of Olaf, but beyond that I can't think of any major reasons.
As to Sweden, I wonder if we could move the POD back a few years to allowing Erik XII/Beatrix of Bavaria to survive, but that might require another thread. In which case @ByzantineLover's suggestion of Catherine of Bohemia as a queen of Denmark would make sense (at least from my mind, Denmark and Sweden don't like each other, Luxemburg queen in Denmark and a Wittelsbach queen in Sweden would draw the line rather definitely as to which side either's on).

@von Adler: thanks, I didn't know that about medieval Norway. Didn't Sweden also have a law against serfdom in the Western European sense?
As to Bo Jonsson, his English wiki article seems to have an appalling lack of dates of when anything he did happened, but he was the leader of the aristocratic rebellion against Magnus IV in 1363, and was instrumental in pushing King Albrekt's claim forward. So, a POD in 1362 isn't likely to be able to affect too much in that regard. Although, I wonder if Erik XII lived (i.e. a POD in 1359) would Jonsson still have been able to pull this off? I mean, most of Jonsson's official positions according to his wiki article, date from after King Albrekt was installed, so obviously Jonsson was the chief beneficiary of the coup. However, it describes him as having usurped most of his wealth, so he seems to have been an awesomely unscrupulous character.

 

[Bastiram]

wow, thanks for the breakdown. I agree that Estridsen cadet branches in Norway or Sweden would be cool, but I was wondering if you know of any reason why Margareta couldn't give Hakon more children? I can accept she was possibly damaged by the pregnancy of Olaf, but beyond that I can't think of any major reasons.

No idea, I would see no reason for her not to have more children, but OTL she only had the one son. So it makes you speculate. I kept the one son because 1) keeping the butterflies easier IMO, 2) I am a bit Biased, and think the idea of Estridsen Cadet branches would be cool

at least from my mind, Denmark and Sweden don't like each other, Luxemburg queen in Denmark and a Wittelsbach queen in Sweden would draw the line rather definitely as to which side either's on

I've argue that the "dislike" between the two is not a thing yet. Sure Denmark a century previous had meddled in Swedish succesion a time or two, much like in Norway. But the historic rivalry is not (IMO) there yet.

To go back on my previous idea, I think if Margrethe manages to become regent of Norway (likely IMO) then if/when Olaf dies, I think she will be in a very good position to choose who will become next King, which is why I suggested a son of Christopher, simply because such a son would be younger than his younger brother Valdemar. As such, Margrethe will stay regent for longer.

If we go like OTL with Albrecht being disposed, then I think the young Valdemar would be an exellent choice, he got the backing of the Danish Kingdom, so the nobility won't (IMO) entirely run circles around him, on the other hand he will be "just" King of Sweden, meaning he will not have to juggle two other Kingdoms. Hopefully this will placate the often unruly Swedish nobility. an example of this would be far less, if any at all, Danish/German men being placed in positions that the Swedish Nobility wanted.

About the marriages, I've never been good at that part of history. But in the timeframe, the Kingdom of Denmarks reputation was in the gutters, barely surviving a interregnum and being pawned off to Germany counts. I think a marriage to a more "local" german noble woman is more likely, maybe from Holstein without checking if it is a possibility.

I also think for Christopher, getting a son/brother etc. on the throne of Norway/Sweden is second hand for him, in the continues conflict with Northern Germany. I'm unsure if Sweden have any interest in this, if Albrecht of Mecklenburg never becomes King of Sweden

 

[von Adler]

@Bastiram wow, thanks for the breakdown. I agree that Estridsen cadet branches in Norway or Sweden would be cool, but I was wondering if you know of any reason why Margareta couldn't give Hakon more children? I can accept she was possibly damaged by the pregnancy of Olaf, but beyond that I can't think of any major reasons.
As to Sweden, I wonder if we could move the POD back a few years to allowing Erik XII/Beatrix of Bavaria to survive, but that might require another thread. In which case @ByzantineLover's suggestion of Catherine of Bohemia as a queen of Denmark would make sense (at least from my mind, Denmark and Sweden don't like each other, Luxemburg queen in Denmark and a Wittelsbach queen in Sweden would draw the line rather definitely as to which side either's on).

@von Adler: thanks, I didn't know that about medieval Norway. Didn't Sweden also have a law against serfdom in the Western European sense?
As to Bo Jonsson, his English wiki article seems to have an appalling lack of dates of when anything he did happened, but he was the leader of the aristocratic rebellion against Magnus IV in 1363, and was instrumental in pushing King Albrekt's claim forward. So, a POD in 1362 isn't likely to be able to affect too much in that regard. Although, I wonder if Erik XII lived (i.e. a POD in 1359) would Jonsson still have been able to pull this off? I mean, most of Jonsson's official positions according to his wiki article, date from after King Albrekt was installed, so obviously Jonsson was the chief beneficiary of the coup. However, it describes him as having usurped most of his wealth, so he seems to have been an awesomely unscrupulous character.

Neither Norway nor Sweden had serfdom - the nobility never had the right to prevent peasants from going wherever they pleased, which the Danish nobility gained during this era. Who owned the arable land during this era show pretty clearly where the power was:

Country-Crown-Freeholding peasants-Nobility-Church (roughly 1400)
Sweden-6-52-21-21.
Denmark-10-15-38-37.
Norway-7-37-15-41.
Finland-4,5-90-3-2,5.

As for Bo Jonsson (Grip) and his schemes, the Swedish wiki has more dates and more reliable information. You can google translate it pretty well.

https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bo_Jonsson_(Grip)

Most of the land Bo Jonsson (Grip) had control over was not his, but free-held land. The crown simply pawned the tax income of the land to him as payment and interest to large loans he made to the crown.

Sweden's problem during this era was that Magnus Eriksson had bought Skåne and Blekinge for 34 000 mark silver and the payment of this and money required by the pope to finance crusades (since Sweden did not participate) bankrupted the crown. Magnus had to pawn off counties to men like Bo Jonsson (Grip), further reducing the income of the crown. Magnus' attempts at centralising tax collection, introducing new taxes and increasing the income of the crown infuriated the nobility, who revolved 1356 and forced Magnus to large concessions 1357 - concessions so large that the power of the crown was essentially broken. When Valdemar Atterdag of Denmark invaded to regain Skåne and Blekinge, loot Öland and take Gotland, Magnus was unable to answer militarily, and only the peasant militia on Gotland managed to put up any kind of fight.

Bo Jonsson (Grip) was instrumental in the second revolt against Magnus 1363 and hand-picked Albrecht as a King that would be easily controlled by the nobility, as the Mecklenburgian nobility wielded significant power, seeing a chance to retain the free-holding peasants he had the right to tax as his own. After the installation of Albrekt, Bo Jonsson (Grip) was pretty much untouchable as the King maker, which is evident by him murdering the fellow nobleman Karl Nilsson in church in front of multiple, after suspecting Karl had an affair with his wife - without any kind of consequences. His massive purchases of land in a very short time in the 1380s also indicate that he used mercenaries to threaten or even kill those that did now want to sell to the prices he was paying.

The increased power of the nobility would lead to multiple peasant risings and from 1434 and the Engelbrekt rebellion the permament clusterfuck of a civil war that was the latter 3/4 of the Kalmar Union.

Albrekt was put on the throne because the Swedish nobility wanted a weak king that let them rule as they saw fit. The Danish king in Copenhagen was far away and served the same purpose. Various factions of the nobility will enthrone anyone they think will benefit them. This state of affairs will continue until the Swedish peasants grow tired of the charade and demand a king serving their interests, after which the whole thing will be a clusterfuck of a civil war until a diplomatic and economic mastermind like Gustav Eriksson (Vasa) gets on the throne - especially if you have a massacre of a large part of the higher nobility able to resist him akin to the OTL Stockholm bloodbath.