WI Charles XII dies or is captured in Poltava?
- Thread starter Gonzaga
- Start date
Not sure how much things would change all the way to the time when in OTL Charles returned to Sweden or at all: government of his sister had been continuing war during his absence and after his death and his return was not accompanied by any military miracles. Taking into an account his stubbornness it is interesting to guess for how long would he refuse to discuss peace if he is captured. Obviously, Peter would not torture him or treat him with the excessive harshness so the pressure was going to be minimal and he could stay in a captivity for many years. What he would do after returning is another interesting question: the war is over, he is screwed and how he is going to reign?
Would he try to raise a new army and get "revenge" from Russia? I can't see Charles simply accepting to spend the rest of his days quietly ruling from Stockholm.
An idea: could Peter try to include in a "ransom" agreement a marriage between Charles and someone related to Russian allies? And who could she be?
So you are saying that he would break the peace he just signed? I'm not such a huge admirer of Charles but he was seemingly a person of integrity.
Matrimonial questions are not my area but we have a lot of people who can research this subject in the great details.
If captured then the war might end then and there with a peace treaty were the Russian holdings on the area around St Petersburg and Livland affirmed. Remember, Peter did not take any more 12 years later after he had hold Finland for years and his fleet was ravaging the Swedish east coast.
I think that the situation regarding Poland might end up just as OTL.
Denmark does not reenter the war as the war is finished.
This might also butterfly away the plauge of 1710
Sweden is basically at 1721 in 1709 but with an alive Charles and Stenbock(who does not die in a dungeon in Copenhagen) and thousands of Swedish soldiers that was POW.
If he dies i think the war goes just like OTL until 1711 or so when a peace is made basically on the same terms as OTL peace.
I think that the situation regarding Poland might end up just as OTL.
Denmark does not reenter the war as the war is finished.
This might also butterfly away the plauge of 1710
Sweden is basically at 1721 in 1709 but with an alive Charles and Stenbock(who does not die in a dungeon in Copenhagen) and thousands of Swedish soldiers that was POW.
If he dies i think the war goes just like OTL until 1711 or so when a peace is made basically on the same terms as OTL peace.
But at the time of Poltava (1709) neither Riga nor Revel had been taken by the Russians (happened in 1710) so if the peace is signed immediately after the capture the borders are significant.y different from those of OTL. Of course, everybody involved avoids further fighting.
If Charles XII is captured at Poltava, and is force to into making peace, I think he would bid his time, build up an army, and break the agreement, and restart a war with Russia
I am pretty sure, except small border changes, Russia is not getting Estonia or Livonia, because of the fact they still stand, and neither is Poland. Charles will probably return to Poland continue to support his puppet king, and create a firm Swedish-Polish alliance and coalition against Russia, perhaps with the Ottomans involved?
How exactly could he be “forced”? Surely, he would not be tortured or even treated with the excessive harshness: Peter could not afford anything of the kind without a complete loss of face. So he would just keep saying “no” because “yes” would go contrary to his principles. Anyway, Peter is not stupid to such a degree that he blindly trusts a piece of paper signed under duress. Territorial concessions are going to be bigger and occupation would happen before Charles is released. In a meantime, while Sweden is still at war, Russians are capturing Latvia and Estonia, Denmark, Saxony and Brandenburg are getting into the picture and the rest is going along approximately the same lines as in OTL: Swedish Pomerania is under attack and Swedish resources are not adequate.
Even if a separate peace with Russia is concluded, the Swedes are still outnumbered, country resources are limited and Charles can’t keep producing the tactical miracles (see events in OTL after his release).
Yeah, your right. Force wasn’t the right word.
I was thinking more the line of what happened OTL, like when Charles XII had to stay in the Ottoman Empire for a while.
Basically, Charles XII is captured by Peter the Great, and due to Charles XII stubbornness not to sign a peace treaty, he has to stay in Russia for a while. OTL, Sweden had to fend for themselves while Charles XII was gone, and sent him a ultimatum to him, that made him return back, so they may do something similar in this timeline, like for example, threatening to dethrone him, forcing him to make peace with Peter and return back to Sweden
AFAIK (Incan be wrong), Charles reign never was under a serious threat even when he was staying with the Ottomans, the Russians occupied the Baltic provinces with a minimal opposition and then Denmark, Brandenburg and Saxony entered the war. Swedish loyalty in a face of the senseless losses and destruction is truly amazing even if it is hard to figure out what sense did it make. OTOH, the fighting and destruction kept going on even after his death so perhaps stubbornness was a family trait.
Well, Sweden stalled for time to get England on their side against Russia. Sweden signed peace with Hannover in 1719, Preussia and Denmark in 1720. Chaos in the goverment prevented Sweden to make offensive plays. But the only state of war that existed 1718-1721 was the raids by Russia on Sweden
Well, Sweden could not keep raising the armies, could not stop the Russian raids on its coast and pretty much the only thing it could do was to issue the privateering licenses, which had been used mostly for capturing the Dutch ships sailing to the Russian Baltic ports (Russian merchant marine was non-existent). Occupation unquestionably entertaining but rather idiotic because at that time the overwhelming bulk of the Russian trade was going through Archangelsk. In a meantime Russians occupied Southern Finland and kept destroyed the Swedish coast.
Ditto for the British help: the British government eventually sided with Sweden but the British squadron in the Baltics would not do anything of importance because it could not operate close to the coastal shallow waters and thus was harmless to the Russian galleys even if his commander was bent upon the aggressive action. Which he was not because the King could be anti-whatever he wanted but the British interest in the Russian trade was there and kept growing (Peter was smart enough to accommodate the British merchants demonstrating that he is not at war with them).
Anyway, to be of some practical value, this alliance would need to bring 30-40,000 British troops to the Baltic with a commitment to conduct an open-ended campaign just to please Sweden. How realistic this would be?