WI Charles V dies during the conquest of Tunis in 1535?

[Gonzaga]

In June 1535 Charles V personally led the fleet and the army that conquered the city of Tunis from the Ottomans. So, WI he is injured and dies during or right after the battles or the capture of the city? Ferdinand I was already named his heir in the HRE, so probably no change in the succession, but here he would become Emperor 20 years earlier than IOTL. In Spain, Philip II is only a 8 years old boy who would need a regency. Also, John of Austria is never born ITTL.

 

[isabella]

In Spain and for Charles V's children things will go very likely as OTL: Charles's cousin and wife, Isabella of Portugal, will be the regent for her son (as she was already doing for her husband). OTL she died in 1539, but she died for complications when her latest pregnancy ended with a miscarriage something who in this ATL is impossible.
Charles will left like OTL three children: eight years old Philip II, seven years old Maria and newborn Juana who are likely destined to marry the same cousins they married in OTL: Philip's first wife will be his double cousin Maria Manuela of Portugal (his other OTL matches are unlikely and he will never marry Mary of England of his will), Maria will marry her paternal cousin future HRE Maximilian II and Juana will be likely destined to marry another double cousin aka the heir of Portugal

 

[Alpha Trion]

Ferdinand I becoming Emperor in 1535 would have interesting consequences in TTL. Ferdinand I would need to cooperate with Philip II to contain France, while still having to deal with the Ottoman threat as well as the Protestant princes in the Empire. Assuming Francesco II Sforza still dies on schedule (October 1535), who will receive Milan? Would Ferdinand attempt to invest one of his sons with Milan or would he use it as a bargaining chip in a peace treaty? A possible solution would be to have a daughter of Ferdinand marry a son of Francis I of France, with Milan as a dowry. How would Ferdinand deal with the Protestant princes in the Empire? Based on OTL, I suspect Ferdinand would come up with a more pragmatic solution than Charles V did and perhaps even enlist the help of some of the Protestant princes in defending his hereditary possessions from the Ottomans. It would also be interesting to see how Ferdinand would handle a Church council in TTL.

 

[Gonzaga]

Ferdinand I becoming Emperor in 1535 would have interesting consequences in TTL. Ferdinand I would need to cooperate with Philip II to contain France, while still having to deal with the Ottoman threat as well as the Protestant princes in the Empire. Assuming Francesco II Sforza still dies on schedule (October 1535), who will receive Milan? Would Ferdinand attempt to invest one of his sons with Milan or would he use it as a bargaining chip in a peace treaty? A possible solution would be to have a daughter of Ferdinand marry a son of Francis I of France, with Milan as a dowry. How would Ferdinand deal with the Protestant princes in the Empire? Based on OTL, I suspect Ferdinand would come up with a more pragmatic solution than Charles V did and perhaps even enlist the help of some of the Protestant princes in defending his hereditary possessions from the Ottomans. It would also be interesting to see how Ferdinand would handle a Church council in TTL.

Weren't Spanish troops necessary to Charles secure Milan for the Empire? Now that the king is dead, would the Spanish even bother getting it? I suppose it was estrategicaly important in order to secure a safe transport of troops from Italy to the Netherlands through Habsburg territory.

 

[Alpha Trion]

Even though Spanish troops had helped Francesco II regain his duchy, at the time of his death in 1535, Milan was independent of both French and Spanish forces. In OTL, Francis I invaded Savoy in 1536 and I could certainly see him in TTL taking advantage of the deaths of Francesco and Charles V to invade both Savoy and Milan. As Emperor, Ferdinand I would be obliged to protect both Savoy and Milan but would be unable to regain them from France without the help of Spain. Spain would not want the French to control Milan not only to protect their access to the Netherlands but to also keep Naples from being vulnerable to French invasion. However, Isabella would likely try to avoid war during the minority of Philip II. By granting Milan to a younger son of Francis in return for Francis restoring Savoy to its rightful ruler, Ferdinand I would giving both himself and Philip II enough breathing space to deal with more immediate problems(like the Ottomans) while leaving the possibility of taking Milan back eventually.

 

[Gonzaga]

Even though Spanish troops had helped Francesco II regain his duchy, at the time of his death in 1535, Milan was independent of both French and Spanish forces. In OTL, Francis I invaded Savoy in 1536 and I could certainly see him in TTL taking advantage of the deaths of Francesco and Charles V to invade both Savoy and Milan. As Emperor, Ferdinand I would be obliged to protect both Savoy and Milan but would be unable to regain them from France without the help of Spain. Spain would not want the French to control Milan not only to protect their access to the Netherlands but to also keep Naples from being vulnerable to French invasion. However, Isabella would likely try to avoid war during the minority of Philip II. By granting Milan to a younger son of Francis in return for Francis restoring Savoy to its rightful ruler, Ferdinand I would giving both himself and Philip II enough breathing space to deal with more immediate problems(like the Ottomans) while leaving the possibility of taking Milan back eventually.

BTW, having Charles V die in the battle (even if not changing its outcome) wouldn't give some boost to the Ottomans? Could we see them making bolder moves against the Habsburgs?

 

[Alpha Trion]

I do not see the Ottomans doing better against the Habsburgs in TTL. Spain is too far away for the Ottomans to invade and logistics would be very difficult for any attempted Ottoman conquest of the lands ruled by Ferdinand. Besides due to the threat of Persia, Suleiman would be unable to commit fully to any war against the Habsburgs even in alliance with France. I suggested a peace treaty giving Milan to Charles of Orleans to temporarily break the French-Ottoman alliance and give the Habsburgs time to recover from the wars of the previous two decades. But of course, Francis I would still want to end the Spanish hegemony over Italy and would have to contend with Spain, Austria, and likely England.