WI Battle of Warsaw 1656 is total Polish-Lithuanian victory

[marcinL]

The otl three day Battle of Warsaw, a major battle of the Deluge, ended with Swedish-Brandenburgian victory, though as Polish losses were insignificant it did little besides prolonging the war and destruction of PLC. So, WI instead John Casimir and his forces roll all sixes during the battle and it ends with total destruction of the invaders' armies and death of both Charles X Gustav and the Great Elector Frederick Wilhelm?

Battle of Warsaw (1656) - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

The first effect is that the Brandenburg is left to a 1-year old who otl died in 1674 and the line of Fredericks and Wilhelms that built Prussian power is butterflied away. And so is, coincidentally, Sweden, although Charles XI lived for somewhat longer and Charles X Gustav otl died in 1660 anyway.

 

[adm.Thrawn]

1. just out of curiosity - in which moment PLC win battle?
2, How PLC can take advantage of this victory? - In what direction PLC forces can go first? Erase Prussia? Destroy Sweden forces in Pomerania? Divide forces and go on Lithuania, Pomerania and Prussia?
3, Without Swedish-Brandenburgian victory Russia must quickly make peace - PLC froces can go to East. Tzarist demands can decresase - First, Russia demand half of Lithuanian Principality, Kievian voiwodenshipn and Braclaw voiwodenship, if remember

4, What about aliance between PLC and Emperor? In OTL they talked about a possible alliance and support against Sweden
5,What about Transylvania - in OTL they talked about aliance, but ultimately go in alliance with Sweden and attacked PLC - will be Treaty of Radnot?

 

[marcinL]

1. just out of curiosity - in which moment PLC win battle?
2, How PLC can take advantage of this victory? - In what direction PLC forces can go first? Erase Prussia? Destroy Sweden forces in Pomerania? Divide forces and go on Lithuania, Pomerania and Prussia?
3, Without Swedish-Brandenburgian victory Russia must quickly make peace - PLC froces can go to East. Tzarist demands can decresase - First, Russia demand half of Lithuanian Principality, Kievian voiwodenshipn and Braclaw voiwodenship, if remember

4, What about aliance between PLC and Emperor? In OTL they talked about a possible alliance and support against Sweden
5,What about Transylvania - in OTL they talked about aliance, but ultimately go in alliance with Sweden and attacked PLC - will be Treaty of Radnot?

1. The battle goes better overall, but the decisive moment is when Charles Gustav divides his army to outflank Poles, and it is destroyed in detail. It includes the obligatory great cavalry charge, with one hussar Jakub Kowalewski stabbing Charles Gustav with the lance, and the queen taking command of the artillery, just for fun.

2. Eh, this is PLC, so most likely the pospolite ruszenie goes home, and there is no money for the regular army to continue fighting 😟 Jokes aside, Imo, they could raid and try taking Prussia, but whether they are capable of taking Prussian fortresses is another matter. Besides you might bet on Hohenzollerns being lucky in politics and Poles allowing tohem to get away on the condition they drop out of war.

3. Ah, Russia's famous negotiating technique. Imo PLC would defintely lose Smoleńsk, I dont know what happens in Ukraine

5. If Poland is kicking ass again the Radnot probably shouldnt happen

 

[Vinization]

Sweden and Prussia are screwed, I think, and the PLC is able to focus its forces against the Cossacks and Russians earlier. The worst of the Deluge is thankfully averted, and the Commonwealth may be able to reform itself or at least not turn into a hollow shell controlled by foreign agents.

 

[marcinL]

Sweden and Prussia are screwed, I think, and the PLC is able to focus its forces against the Cossacks and Russians earlier. The worst of the Deluge is thankfully averted, and the Commonwealth may be able to reform itself or at least not turn into a hollow shell controlled by foreign agents.

I woupdnt say Sweden is screwed, Poland can do little to threaten Sweden proper and even invading Swedish possessions in Livonia and Pomerania would not be easy

 

[Vinization]

I woupdnt say Sweden is screwed, Poland can do little to threaten Sweden proper and even invading Swedish possessions in Livonia and Pomerania would not be easy

Sure, but a good portion of their very small army will be completely destroyed (IIRC the Swedes put themselves in a position where they couldn't retreat if they lost) and they'll have a baby on the throne.

 

[alexmilman]

Ah, Russia's famous negotiating technique. Imo PLC would defintely lose Smoleńsk, I dont know what happens in Ukraine

To be fair, the OTL “negotiation technique” you are talking about had been shaped by the fact that Tsar Alexey put in charge of the Russian foreign policy boyarin Ordin-Naschokin who as a leader of the Russian pro-Polish party and insisted on peace with the PLC even at the cost of ceding all Russian conquests including Smolensk area (advantages of the pro-Polish orientation never had been convincingly spelled out). This policy resulted in declaring a war with Sweden even before the peace treaty was ratified by the Polish side.

While Tsardom was conducting operations in the Swedish Baltic provinces, Sweden and PLC made a peace, Crimea attacked Southern Russian border and Ukrainian Hetman Vygovsky switched sides. Poles, not being tied by not officially recognized treaty, renewed the war. Russia had to make a hasty peace with Sweden ceding all its gains and then to face the best Polish troops made available after peace with Sweden, the Cossacks (those who joined Vygovsky) and the Tatars. Lowering the peace conditions was due (a) series of the Polish military successes and (b) position of Ordyn-Naschokin who was willing to cede territories beyond those authorized (as was the case with Kiev, which eventually ended being temporarily left in the Russian possession). So the result of this TL is probably close to OTL: under its best generals the Polish cavalry still could win the field battles but quality of the Russian infantry and artillery noticeably improved, Tsardom still had considerable numbers of the western model troops and the Polish ability to conduct successful sieges of the well-fortified places like Smolensk still was not very good. But the war is costly and other theaters require a lot of attention so the claims have to be limited to the territories Tsardom still holds.

Within this framework, a crushing Swedish defeat at Warsaw would probably improve Russian position vis-a-vis Sweden with a resulting access to the Baltic coast (what Russia is going to do with it is another issue).

Ukraine is tricky but probably it still ends up with two-way split (anti-Polish sentiments among the Cossacks still were strong) and then OTL-like Russian-Crimean arrangement regarding “spheres of influence” on the Left Bank: Tsardom’s relations with “its” Cossacks also had been complicated, to put it mildly.

 

[marcinL]

To be fair, the OTL “negotiation technique” you are talking about had been shaped by the fact that Tsar Alexey put in charge of the Russian foreign policy boyarin Ordin-Naschokin who as a leader of the Russian pro-Polish party and insisted on peace with the PLC even at the cost of ceding all Russian conquests including Smolensk area (advantages of the pro-Polish orientation never had been convincingly spelled out). This policy resulted in declaring a war with Sweden even before the peace treaty was ratified by the Polish side.

I guess some gold changed owners.

While Tsardom was conducting operations in the Swedish Baltic provinces, Sweden and PLC made a peace, Crimea attacked Southern Russian border and Ukrainian Hetman Vygovsky switched sides. Poles, not being tied by not officially recognized treaty, renewed the war. Russia had to make a hasty peace with Sweden ceding all its gains and then to face the best Polish troops made available after peace with Sweden, the Cossacks (those who joined Vygovsky) and the Tatars. Lowering the peace conditions was due (a) series of the Polish military successes and (b) position of Ordyn-Naschokin who was willing to cede territories beyond those authorized (as was the case with Kiev, which eventually ended being temporarily left in the Russian possession). So the result of this TL is probably close to OTL: under its best generals the Polish cavalry still could win the field battles but quality of the Russian infantry and artillery noticeably improved, Tsardom still had considerable numbers of the western model troops and the Polish ability to conduct successful sieges of the well-fortified places like Smolensk still was not very good. But the war is costly and other theaters require a lot of attention so the claims have to be limited to the territories Tsardom still holds.

Within this framework, a crushing Swedish defeat at Warsaw would probably improve Russian position vis-a-vis Sweden with a resulting access to the Baltic coast (what Russia is going to do with it is another issue).

Could Russia conquer Livonia at that time?

Ukraine is tricky but probably it still ends up with two-way split (anti-Polish sentiments among the Cossacks still were strong) and then OTL-like Russian-Crimean arrangement regarding “spheres of influence” on the Left Bank: Tsardom’s relations with “its” Cossacks also had been complicated, to put it mildly.

Maybe the Union of Hadziacz stands this time. For some time?

 

[von Adler]

The Swedish army at this time consisted mainly of Low German mercenaries - if there's money, it can be re-raised. Sweden has a good reputation among the northern German states for paying decently on time and providing a good career options for noble officers from other countries (lots of Scottish and German mercenary campaigns of lower nobility became ennobled in Sweden during this era) and loot in the Commonwealth was rich. Sweden could probably raise another army before the Poles and Lithuanians could take any significant positions in Pommerania or Livonia - Riga and Stralsund were well-fortified positions open to the sea, and Poland lacked a navy after Sweden tookt he Courlander one in 1655.

And even if Riga and Stralsund falls (doubtful, it took a lot to take them much later byt he Brandenburgians/Prussians and Russians respectively) Sweden proper is still shielded from Commonwealth Retribution due to the lack of a Commonwealth navy.

The fact that Karl X Gustav immediately packed up to go deal with Denmark because Denmark controlled what is today southern Sweden and had a powerful navy shows that he considered Denmark much more of a threat to the core of Sweden than the Commonwealth.

 

[alexmilman]

I guess some gold changed owners.

Not necessarily. Ordin-Naschekin was quite sincere in his opinion that peace with the PLC would give Tsardom an ability to gain a much more valuable Livonia from Sweden. He was seemingly not well aware of the way things are done in the PLC and did not expect that an achieved agreement would be broken based upon the formalities.

Could Russia conquer Livonia at that time?

It conquered a big part of it but failed to take Riga. “
Ordin-Nashchokin negotiated with Sweden the Treaty of Valiesar (Vallisaare), whereby Russia was allowed to keep the conquered territories in present-day Latvia and Estonia — Koknese, Aluksne, Dorpat, Nyslott — for three years.

When the term expired, Russia's military position in the Polish war had deteriorated to such a point that the tsar could not allow himself to be involved into a new conflict against powerful Sweden. His boyars had no other choice but to sign in 1661 the Treaty of Kardis (Kärde), which obliged Russia to yield its Livonian and Ingrian conquests to Sweden, confirming the provisions of the Treaty of Stolbovo.” Actually, O-N was against the Treaty of Kardis but was overruled.

Maybe the Union of Hadziacz stands this time. For some time?

Hardly. It was good for Cossack “starshina” but not popular among the ordinary Cossacks who rebelled against Vyhovsky and, realistically, it was just a piece of paper because Tsardom’s troops retained their positions in Left Bank Ukraine and Vyhovsky’s alliance with the Tatars was quite costly to the local population.

 

[adm.Thrawn]

So, basically first eneemy for PLC is tsardom or Brandenburg/Prussia
-Russia - they have large portion of country and they aid Cossack Rebelion - so maybe its time for tour of Ukraine - with sword and fire??
-Prussia - this direction helpagainst another rebelled vassal and give position in probably truce and maybe peace - status quo ante bellum perhaps?

 

[Milites]

If Charles Gustav dies alongside the greater part of his army at Warsaw, then Denmark most assuredly declares war on Sweden. Especially if the Swedish defeat butterflies the rapprochement between the Netherlands and Sweden reached at the Treaty of Elbing in September 1656. Up until that point the Dutch representative in Copenhagen had agitated fiercely for Danish participation in breaking the Swedish blockade of Danzig, the main artery for the export of Baltic grain to the Low Countries.

However, given the abysmal record of the Danish noble army during the otl war of 1657-58, this early declaration of war might not have any meaningful effect. Still, the full power of the Danish navy in the Baltic would be unleashed - possibly with the much more potent Dutch Baltic squadron alongside it.