WI : A Dutch led industrial revolution?

[galileo-034]

I've been somewhat interested not to say fascinated with the Dutch prosperity of the 17th century and somewhat too in the 18th.

In the 18th century, the United Provinces were past their golden age, their domination of the seas went away as competition from other naval powers, especially that of Britain, and their manufacturing industries underwent a "decline".
However, as I read, that wasn't all so bad. The "decline" was more marked by a transition to service industry with a powerful financial sector that was not to envy the British's one. And though they lost sea supremacy, their neutrality through various 18th century served them well as primary trade intermediaries. It wouldn't be until the end of the century, ca 1800, that British GDP per capita would actually overtake the Dutch one. Dutch capital, in need of venues of investment, went into British nascent industrial complex (still as I read).
However, the Dutch financial sector was undermined by a huge debt and insolvency of the VOC (east india company). The Fourth Anglo-Dutch war in the 1780s brought the fragile equilibrium to an end and the VOC's subsequent collapse took down the Dutch financial sector into a crisis after which he would never again rise back to prominence, the British being firmly in charge.

Now, I've wondered about the possibility of an industrial revolution in the United Provinces.
The thing is that Belgium had large coalfields but wouldn't come under Dutch control until after the Napoleonic wars, and for a brief time yet.
What if the United Provinces acquired Belgium at some point? I'm not seeking for a particular POD there but rather its economical effects. So the POD should preferrably not be too early, and no later than the first half of 18th century.

In early control of Belgian mines, I wondered if it could have been possible that a still powerful Dutch financial sector could have helped kickstarted an industrial revolution with mechanization supported by steam engines with Belgian coal. Dutch capital that went to the UK IOTL could go into Belgium instead.
Mechanization as happened in Lancashire could thus happen too in the United Provinces and resurrect its textile industry, reversing the early decline of Dutch industry.

I'm aware that the United Provinces would still be vulnerable to geopolitical events on the continent, but could this set the trend towards a second Dutch golden age, denying the British their OTL domination of 19th century world economy?

 

[HJ Tulp]

Actually, one of the problems for the industrialization of the Netherlands was that it's means of production were already at a pretty high level of efficiency. It was simply not profitable to change over to steam.

 

[Max Sinister]

If they have Belgium, they have the coal, but what about iron?

 

[Socrates]

I think the Dutch Republic is the best candidate after Britain and its territories for an industrial revolution. In OTL they had constitutional government, mercantile-led policy, strong property rights, corporate structures, advanced financing methods. Access to resources is the one remaining internal element they need. I don't really buy the "already efficient" issue as a major blocker. Many advances start with being less efficient at first. And scale matters as well as efficiency.

There are two external issues you need to address. The first is removing England as a competitor as it had far greater scale in capital. Avoiding 1688 revolution does that. The other is the danger of French invasion, so make France a close ally somehow.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

The biggest problem for the Dutch is they need to get their hands on an excess rural population that can be displaced and provide the footloose labor to feed into the new industrial machine and urban market economy that would make industrialization worthwhile. Small point I drastically expanding the number of shirts you can produce if your potential customers (or their wives/daughters) are still sticking what they need in house. Neatherlands proper dosen't really have a source of potential cheap hands available IOTL, so you'd need to find one.

 

[Socrates]

The biggest problem for the Dutch is they need to get their hands on an excess rural population that can be displaced and provide the footloose labor to feed into the new industrial machine and urban market economy that would make industrialization worthwhile. Small point I drastically expanding the number of shirts you can produce if your potential customers (or their wives/daughters) are still sticking what they need in house. Neatherlands proper dosen't really have a source of potential cheap hands available IOTL, so you'd need to find one.

They have Germany just next door.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

They have Germany just next door.

... I want you to consider the political and cultural problems created by the rapid importation of a large number of forgeiners into tight knit urban communities will close access to the lingustic influences of the home country very close by in a nation wide a population the size of 1800s Neatherlands. This is not a recipe for internal civility or political stability.

 

[Socrates]

... I want you to consider the political and cultural problems created by the rapid importation of a large number of forgeiners into tight knit urban communities will close access to the lingustic influences of the home country very close by in a nation wide a population the size of 1800s Neatherlands. This is not a recipe for internal civility or political stability.

The industrial revolution didn't happen overnight but decades. And German was a dialect continuum with many parts of it close to Dutch.

 

[zhropkick]

They have Germany just next door.

How are they going to get access to it though?

 

[FillyofDelphi]

The industrial revolution didn't happen overnight but decades. And German was a dialect continuum with many parts of it close to Dutch.

Which is a generation or two, which in those conditions is essentially nothing in terms of assimilation. I fully expect high levels of ethnic tension and resulting voter backlash.

 

[Modern Imperialism]

Which is a generation or two, which in those conditions is essentially nothing in terms of assimilation. I fully expect high levels of ethnic tension and resulting voter backlash.

I think the Dutch keeping South Africa helps this situation a lot. They could industrialized that region a lot and have a great amount of cheap labor there. Africans do a large part of agricultural labor while Boars and a large influx of European immigrants(mostly Germans and Jews) do much of the industrial labor. A Netherlands that controls Belgium and Luxembourg has a decent size population for industrialization especially if they take some border lands from France during a Franco-Prussian war. But they will need some immigration to help out. Moderate immigration from Germany with additional immigration from France and Jews should do the job. A Dutch Republic could stay a immigration hotbed for Europeans given its system and tolerance. Jews, French, and to a lesser extent Germans could assimilate into Dutch society well. French immigrants and people merging into the Flanders culture. Jews in the Netherlands assimilated pretty well in OTL. Some Germans would assimilate but others would retain their culture for the most part but Germans probably will make up between 5 to 10 percent of the population in the United Netherlands at most and that’s with the most liberal immigration policy. It would be similar to the Baltic region in the demographics of Germans there in the most extreme case. The population is big enough to make German influence in economics and politics noticeable but not destabilizing. The Netherlands would probably just have closer ties to the Germans States and later a united Germany. Immigration from the British Isles could also be somewhat big. Much of the immigration could also be directed towards South Africa who I could actually seeing having more European immigration under Dutch rule if the Dutch don’t mind letting a bunch of Germans and Jews in the colony. South Africa becoming a extension of the Dutch mainlands but in Africa is possible in this situation. Additionally, let’s say the Dutch gain Belgium Congo, got OTL Indonesia, OTL American holdings, Chinese ports, and a small colony or two in Northern Africa they are set. Maybe also gain the Panama Canal and Suez Canal if we push it. In this situation they have probably be one of the most functional empires if the navy stays strong and Netherlands including South Africa are industrialized. They would also control the most vital trade and travel routes in the world.

 

[Arkenfolm]

If they have Belgium, they have the coal, but what about iron?

They keep South Africa which is rich in iron.

 

[Jared]

If they have Belgium, they have the coal, but what about iron?

Belgium has iron. Belgian iron ore reserves were used extensively during the early stages of the Belgian Industrial Revolution. They also imported some iron ore from their neighbours too, which they can still presumably do ITTL.

 

[galileo-034]

My primary assumption in enabling the Dutch to lead an industrial revolution early is their early control of Belgium (at least by the early 18th century) and its extensive coal and iron ore deposits, at the time second to none in Europe but to Britain's I believe.

There are two external issues you need to address. The first is removing England as a competitor as it had far greater scale in capital. Avoiding 1688 revolution does that. The other is the danger of French invasion, so make France a close ally somehow.

The Netherlands were actually a primary financial place in Europe, disputing it with London (which would only get ahead after the financial collapse of the 1780s and its long eclipse during the Napoleonic wars). I read that lacking outlets to invest at home, Dutch financiers invested their capital abroad, notably in England. That is this capital that I think could come develop the manufacturing sector along the Belgian coal and iron mines.
On the other point, I'm thinking that Dutch neutrality could keep it safe from invasion for a while (under Louis XV, the French did bother only when it was controlled by an enemy power, otherwise it's probable they would let it quiet). That leaves the threat of a French revolution scenario, but here, there is potential for an early Batavian revolution if needed, and keep the Netherlands as a more potent French ally (and stay independent instead of becoming a puppet state). It could even benefit from any Continental Blockade if there is a Napoléon to enforce it, using it to take market shares occupied by British production.
In the end, it could even retain its republican government after Napoléon's fall (still if the whole French revolution and Napoléonic wars episode is not erased right away, if it still happens with some "corrections").

Actually, one of the problems for the industrialization of the Netherlands was that it's means of production were already at a pretty high level of efficiency. It was simply not profitable to change over to steam.

I don't doubt that Dutch manufacturing must have reached a high level of efficiency prior to the industrial revolution, but I doubt it reached the same volume of production and benefit than the British did reach.
Without extensive mechanization eventually supplemented by steam power, I doubt Dutch production, of textiles in a particular case, can follow with the market. With these items mass produced and both price and cost driven down, as the cost of labor (more output per worker, or less workers for a same output) too, it is about competing with the British production. Since Dutch shipping enjoyed relatively quiet shipping due to its neutrality up to the 4th Anglo-Dutch war, it can also use that to take overtake the British for some markets as in Asia (and perhaps later as trade partner for the US).

Overall, I'm not thinking of avoiding outright the turmoil through which the Netherlands came through in the 1780s, since the underlying causes are still there, but rather, with this early Dutch industrial revolution (hopefully before Britain's), provide the opportunity for a rebounce, a second Dutch economic miracle at the dawn of the 19th century.

 

[galileo-034]

The industrial revolution didn't happen overnight but decades.

That's why I'm assuming control of Belgium from early 18th century, at least, if not earlier (but that would increase the ripples and alterations of the TL).

They keep South Africa which is rich in iron.

If in that scenario, the Dutch successfully defend their Cape colony (which I don't imagine so far-fetched), they would surely exploit this iron, but I guess that gold and other minerals would eventually be of far greater interest to them (financially speaking).

 

[H.Flashman(VC)]

Actually, one of the problems for the industrialization of the Netherlands was that it's means of production were already at a pretty high level of efficiency. It was simply not profitable to change over to steam.

Basically you're right. but i could see coal replacing peat (Turf) because it is more efficient and peat was getting scarcer. If a good link is made with the Meuse, there could be profit made.

 

[Viriato]

... I want you to consider the political and cultural problems created by the rapid importation of a large number of forgeiners into tight knit urban communities will close access to the lingustic influences of the home country very close by in a nation wide a population the size of 1800s Neatherlands. This is not a recipe for internal civility or political stability.

Beginning in the lat 16th century the United Provinces was one of the places in Europe where immigrants were quite numerous. In the late 17th century you had around 10% of the United Provinces having been born in the Spanish Netherlands. Later on numerous Scandinavians and Germans settled in the urban areas of the Republic, attracted by higher wages with many of the latter group becoming seamen in the VOC. In the late 17th century the Huguenots began arriving from France and constituted an important minority. There were also religious refugees such as English Puritans and Sephardic Jews whom settled in the United Provinces during this time.

 

[DocJamore]

Can the *Dutch start an industrial revolution? I think they can but they won't be our Dutch. Since these *Dutch would have to be operating out of OTL Belgium in order to be successful.

If you want an industrial revolution to happen in the Low Countries, I think it might be best if the political center stays in Antwerp. It is closer to the coal and iron deposits and had a long commercial history. Having Amsterdam as the capital incentivizes the Dutch to be a colonial power, but not an industrial one. The shift of power, while understandably as an attempt to escape the Spanish reprisals, ultimately does handicap the Dutch from industrializing. Because to industrialize, the Dutch need the whole of the Low Countries and can't just hide in the northern bits.

Of course, if the shift from Antwerp to Amsterdam never occurs or is reversed that is going to substantially change the Dutch identity. It might be best to call the *Dutch in this TL with an arsenic to imply all the changes that would have to occur form OTL.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Beginning in the lat 16th century the United Provinces was one of the places in Europe where immigrants were quite numerous. In the late 17th century you had around 10% of the United Provinces having been born in the Spanish Netherlands. Later on numerous Scandinavians and Germans settled in the urban areas of the Republic, attracted by higher wages with many of the latter group becoming seamen in the VOC. In the late 17th century the Huguenots began arriving from France and constituted an important minority. There were also religious refugees such as English Puritans and Sephardic Jews whom settled in the United Provinces during this time.

A few points.

1. Immigrants from the Spainish Neatherlands were largely Dutch (Or at least Flemish dialect) speakers and could easily intergrate/assimilate into the nation. They self-identified as Dutch and shared the majority of the cultural, religious, ect. customs and behaviors of the locals, and so there's hardly a reason they'd be identified as "Foreign/Other" to any major extent by their new neighbors.

2. Said immigrants, as far as I'm aware, arrived in drips and drivels and were generally skilled proffesionals or, in the case of folks like sailors, not very family/settlement oriented so you diden't get the kind of self-reinforcing cultural mutual support groups that come from lowers class... "ghettos"/ethnic neighborhoods you see in immigrant exclaves throughout the world. When you're in small numbers and more identifying with fellow members of your social group/class (Like your skilled aristans living in your fancier, more Dutch neighborhood for example) cultural assimilation and acceptance occurs much faster. Plus, you or at least your children have to be educated and operate in the local tounges in order to do their bussiness (Rather than when dealing with mass lower class laborers that are going to be frequently moving between jobs, in which case its cheaper and faster to just hire a foreman who can give orders in their language than teaching all of them conversational Dutch).

3. Again, upper and middle class communities in relatively small numbers and by their proffesional and social nature in frequent interaction with the broader local culture far more than their former countrymen is not the same as large scale lower class migrantion into condensed areas that produce long-lasting ethnic enclaves. We can even look at the Puritans as an example: They were actively trying not to assimilate into the Dutch culture and many actively marshaled the resources to move halfway across the world just to avoid their children doing so. To say nothing of the fact they weren't getting a steady influx of English influence to reinforce their identity, given they were broadly disliked by British society for their fundimentalism.

They keep South Africa which is rich in iron.

Any firm that's getting its iron supply hauled in from South Africa is going to be dramatically undercut by compeditors closer to home. Long distance transport is EXPENSIVE, and base mentels don't exactly have a high profit margin even after processing. You'd have to charge fairly high prices to cover the cost of the shipping.

 

[Volpij]

Would this Netherlands try to grab some off the german lands as well like Cleve and East Frissia? I don't remember it well but I think Germany wasn't unified yet so they could probably grab some provinces or puppet state them untill they annexed them if played well.

Any firm that's getting its iron supply hauled in from South Africa is going to be dramatically undercut by compeditors closer to home. Long distance transport is EXPENSIVE, and base mentels don't exactly have a high profit margin even after processing. You'd have to charge fairly high prices to cover the cost of the shipping.

What if they process it in South Africa and then ship it?