I’m wondering what would happen if the Mongol Empire conquered Europe and how much they would have conquered. I would make Ogedei not die early so he can focus on conquering Europe.
What if the Mongol Empire conquered Europe?
- Thread starter Dyl7atalthist
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Well I think the first targets for conquest would have been the Balkans, Anatolia, the Levant and Egypt before any invasions into Western Europe, alternatively I could see numerous raids into Nothern Italy being conducted as Italy was the wealthiest region in Europe, the Venetians would likely cut a deal with the Mongols and the Genoese would be screwed. I think Hungary would be a good spot for a Mongol successor state with the Pannonian Basin being a good enough spot to have a continuation of the Mongol horse culture and be able to field sufficient Cavalry, it also provides a good spot to base themselves for raids of Northern Italy, Austria and Germany (think the Magyar raids of the 9th and 10th century). I think the Illkhanate would take Anatolia, the Levant and Egypt. I think it becomes tricky to see any more of Europe conquered because there was already so much left to conquer and the successor states could not mobilise all their resources for conquest lest they get attacked by their fellow successor states.
This is probably the largest possible Mongol Empire though when I originally made this I didn't give Japan and Dai Viet to the Yuan. I think H.R.E territory is too far for the Golden Horde to project power into, perhaps Chagatai would be more successful in India but I feel that is too speculative.
As for the consequences, just because it has not been conquered directly does not mean that Western Europe would not be adversely affected by a bigger Mongol Empire, Germany, Northern Italy would both be subject to wars and repeated raiding, the Balkans would get the treatment that the Rus got IOTL. I think France could be a real winner here provided the Black Horde (Mongol Hungary) and the Golden Horde are unable to raid it as the loss of population in Italy and Germany will mean that demographically France will drawf their neighbours perhaps even taking in refugees to further increase their population, if they focus internally then they could become a European powerhouse, also if Rome comes under repeated threat then the Papacy could be moved to Avignon giving the Kings of France further prestige.
This is probably the largest possible Mongol Empire though when I originally made this I didn't give Japan and Dai Viet to the Yuan. I think H.R.E territory is too far for the Golden Horde to project power into, perhaps Chagatai would be more successful in India but I feel that is too speculative.
As for the consequences, just because it has not been conquered directly does not mean that Western Europe would not be adversely affected by a bigger Mongol Empire, Germany, Northern Italy would both be subject to wars and repeated raiding, the Balkans would get the treatment that the Rus got IOTL. I think France could be a real winner here provided the Black Horde (Mongol Hungary) and the Golden Horde are unable to raid it as the loss of population in Italy and Germany will mean that demographically France will drawf their neighbours perhaps even taking in refugees to further increase their population, if they focus internally then they could become a European powerhouse, also if Rome comes under repeated threat then the Papacy could be moved to Avignon giving the Kings of France further prestige.
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Interesting possibility: the Pope actually made a concerned effort to try and convert the Ilkhans to Catholicism by sending missionaries, these missionaries eventually became the main nexus for the awareness kf China in Europe before Marco Polo. Usung the case of “enemy of my enemy is my friend” versus the Manluks and the Roman successors and the Hohenstaufens. the Pope would give the title of Holy Roman Emperor to the Ilkhan, as the Pope had relinquished support of the Hohenstaufen dynasty after Frederick Barbarossa’s death in 1250. The Pope even successfully organised the temporary union between the Catholic Church and the Church of the East as well in 1300.
Why the Ilkhan?
Giving it to a Mongol ruler in general feels like it would stir up quite a reaction, probably not a positive one, in Europe.
I see it going to the King of France as being more likely, he would be in charge of the most populous and prosperous realm in Europe so seems like a natural choice. I think that a successor state based in Germany is not realistic due to all the other areas of expansion that would be persued first and the fact that ambitions in the region would likely be for no more than raiding and vassalisation, any further than Germany and supply lines are stretch too far from the power base of the Golden Horde or Black Horde. I wonder if the scenario would be see France centralise earlier or if Dukes would now become more powerful and influencial, also the region would be more prosperious with the flight of wealth from Italy and Germany as the wealthy would move to secure their own survival.
I forgot to split the Ilkhanate as I could see a Blue / White Horde situation arising, so displaying it in the same manner as the Golden Horde.
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This makes sense to me, broadly speaking.
France is already on the way to centralizing, but this sure messes things up as far as what goes down especially if there's any significant degree of wealth or human flight from Germany or northern Italy. I'm not sure the Mongols are going to hold Hungary for long compared to more eastern steppe stuff, but that gets heavily into inter-Mongol politics as much as any other reason.
Apologies if I am stating the obvious, but they would be forced to settle down just as the Yuan did, and integrate into European culture.
I hardly see a large flight of people/wealth from Northern Italy, it is more likely that after a complete and successful Mongol conquest of Hungary ( which is already difficult in itself ) the said princes ( basically Batu Khan ) will be content to manage the Italy and HRE as their direct vassals ( the papacy is quite useful as a tool for this, particularly if it reluctantly recognizes you as the legitimate new sovereign ) of course the area will initially suffer the Mongol devastations, but we won't see entire regions completely depopulated and refugees headed to escape towards France ( also very subject to incursions, remember that after passing the many castles and woods present in the HRE ( in addition to the Rhine ), the rest is a plain up to Paris ) it is much more realistic that this Mongolian state remains in the northern European plain ( therefore France and northern Germany, Poland and Hungary ) to consolidate this territory ( already in itself, quite large ) while it is content to vassalize the rest of Europe as its tributaries , will become Christians within a very few generations and Latin will be widely used perhaps even more than OTL as a lingua franca
it is likely that in the end some Khan will think of being a Roman emperor and then go to Rome to be crowned ( but I think it would happen after at least two generations )
I'm not really sure of this. Maybe if the Mongol rulers see themselves as having to conform to European views, but not as the Golden Horde But More Successful.
why not ? after all, something similar It happened with the Yuan dynasty in China or with the khanate in Persia, where once the central empire collapsed, each of its regional dynasties took heavily inspiration from local traditions and ideologies, because it shouldn't happen in Europe a similar thing ?
after all, Batu himself had sent a letter to Frederick II in 1241, telling him that he was coming to overthrow him
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The balkhans of Hungary would most likely be quite interested in Constantinople, especially if they Christianise and will likely be drawn into conflict with the Ilkhans over the city- given the marriage alliances of otl, I wouldn’t be surprised if the first Christian balkhan converts because of a Byzantine wife, and from there his descendants have a claim in the next round of dynastic intrigue and eventually establish themselves as heirs to Rome when the mongol legacy becomes less relevant to the functioning of the state.
More Christian Mongols also makes it more likely that the Golden Horde becomes orthodox, and even potentially sections of the ilkhanate, which has its own implications on Anatolian and Russian history.
More Christian Mongols also makes it more likely that the Golden Horde becomes orthodox, and even potentially sections of the ilkhanate, which has its own implications on Anatolian and Russian history.
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Various sources claim that Sartaq Khan was Christian, and some even extend that to his father.
I think what you'd get is a separate European khanate whose title is the Holy Roman Empire. They would control the Papacy as well--which might be their second major attack, since I could just as easily see the Pope and his allies inviting or otherwise not resisting the Mongols to defeat the Emperor. But I'm not sure they'd get past the Holy Roman Empire and take southern Italy, France, or Spain. That's a campaign that invites a huge amount of difficulties and manpower, as evidenced by the lengthy Mongol campaigns against Southern Song and Korea.
At most, I imagine you'd have all Europe but southern France/"Occitania" (maybe), Sicily, the Spanish kingdoms, Scandinavia, and the British Isles under Mongol rule. There would absolutely be an early Western schism, and someone like Richard of Cornwall or Alfonso X would be the nominal emperor (anti-kaiser really). The biggest question is whether the local Mongol ruler would become emperor, or whether the title would be given to the overall Mongol ruler in China.
There will be a lot of Muslims (of Arab, Persian, and Turkic descent) and Central Asians serving as darughachi and other administrators in Europe as well as Jews too, although the Mongols might understand that Nestorians would be more tolerated as administrators. Ultimately most Mongol administrators would be European and they would use the Church to collect revenue.
The Mongol state in this region will assimilate into European culture, likely convert to one church or another (even if they might try and mend the schisms in the church), and would probably adopt typical medieval European views. In the Yuan dynasty we see a Mongol aversion to Islam and Judaism due to practices like kosher/halal slaughter--no doubt the same thing would occur in Europe where after a brief ascendence/tolerance of Islam and Judaism they'd be once again forced to convert or accept subordinate roles, alongside any pagans, Buddhists, etc. who show up.
Japan would have to come at the expense of Dai Viet and possibly Burma. It would be a huge manpower sink and most importantly, a seapower sink. Every time Kublai Khan and his vassals ordered fleets built for the invasion/planned invasion, it sparked revolts, some rather serious. The Mongols couldn't do both. I would not count out the Ryukyus or even Taiwan as part of the Mongol Empire. In 1299 there was a successful Yuan expedition against "pirates" on Taiwan--it could have been expanded to permanent forts and other means of establishing a protectorate. The Ryukyus were intimately connected with Kyushu even in the 13th century so Mongol domination of Kyushu will prompt expeditions there. Ezo/Hokkaido too, since invasion from the north was likely feared by the Japanese of that era (although the evidence is Nichiren traditions and how the Shogunate feared a Qing attack from Sakhalin). Plus technically the Ainu were considered Japanese vassals since the Andou clan were rulers of Ezo and the Ainu (Ezo kanrei) there viewed them as arbitrators of disputes--Mongol Japan means either the Andou or someone else gets that title.
At most, I imagine you'd have all Europe but southern France/"Occitania" (maybe), Sicily, the Spanish kingdoms, Scandinavia, and the British Isles under Mongol rule. There would absolutely be an early Western schism, and someone like Richard of Cornwall or Alfonso X would be the nominal emperor (anti-kaiser really). The biggest question is whether the local Mongol ruler would become emperor, or whether the title would be given to the overall Mongol ruler in China.
There will be a lot of Muslims (of Arab, Persian, and Turkic descent) and Central Asians serving as darughachi and other administrators in Europe as well as Jews too, although the Mongols might understand that Nestorians would be more tolerated as administrators. Ultimately most Mongol administrators would be European and they would use the Church to collect revenue.
The Mongol state in this region will assimilate into European culture, likely convert to one church or another (even if they might try and mend the schisms in the church), and would probably adopt typical medieval European views. In the Yuan dynasty we see a Mongol aversion to Islam and Judaism due to practices like kosher/halal slaughter--no doubt the same thing would occur in Europe where after a brief ascendence/tolerance of Islam and Judaism they'd be once again forced to convert or accept subordinate roles, alongside any pagans, Buddhists, etc. who show up.
IMO late 13th century could have been the era of a "Mongol resurgance." Mongol Emperor Temur Khan achieved a temporary peace with the Chaghatai and subdued the Ogedei Ulus, and Alauddin Khalji's reign at the time of Chaghatai ruler Duwa's invasion at the end of the 13th century was not quite stable and it could have been a successful, if hard-fought campaign. Plus there was the temporarily successful Ilkhanate campaign in the Holy Land in tandem with Templar/Hospitaller attacks against port cities, but you have that on your map.
Japan would have to come at the expense of Dai Viet and possibly Burma. It would be a huge manpower sink and most importantly, a seapower sink. Every time Kublai Khan and his vassals ordered fleets built for the invasion/planned invasion, it sparked revolts, some rather serious. The Mongols couldn't do both. I would not count out the Ryukyus or even Taiwan as part of the Mongol Empire. In 1299 there was a successful Yuan expedition against "pirates" on Taiwan--it could have been expanded to permanent forts and other means of establishing a protectorate. The Ryukyus were intimately connected with Kyushu even in the 13th century so Mongol domination of Kyushu will prompt expeditions there. Ezo/Hokkaido too, since invasion from the north was likely feared by the Japanese of that era (although the evidence is Nichiren traditions and how the Shogunate feared a Qing attack from Sakhalin). Plus technically the Ainu were considered Japanese vassals since the Andou clan were rulers of Ezo and the Ainu (Ezo kanrei) there viewed them as arbitrators of disputes--Mongol Japan means either the Andou or someone else gets that title.
We don't see the Golden Horde take heavy inspiration from the Rus' OTL as far as what local traditions were influential.
"Why would Frederick's successors be any different than any other vassal of the khan, as opposed to the khans in China and Iran wanting to be seen as part of those realms?" is enough of a something to me to not see it as making sense to go to Rome (as opposed to that if the Khans care about the title of "Roman Emperor" at all, it would not be the part about leaving acceptance of being that as up to the pope).
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That was because the horde center of power was the southern steppe from what is the Caucasus to southern Ukraine, while the hre would have A interesting vassal relationship the what I'm going to call Hungarian Khanate would take more from the locals than the golden horde of the otl
If we see a khanate established in what was Hungary, I think it's going to take far more from the steppe than from what had been the Magyar kingdom.
Hungary has been inhabited by sedentary Hungarians for a while and the mongols would assimilate just the mongols of the golden horde assimilated to the local Turkic population
What makes assimilating into the Hungarians more attractive than assimilating into the Russians was for the western part of the OTL Golden Horde?
I may be picturing something radically different than you, but I'm picturing a Hungarian khanate as "Mongols occupy the ruins of what had been the kingdom of Hungary." as an extension of what was the OTL Golden Horde and the steppe all around and not as separate from that the way OTL Hungary was.
If it's something where its sharply cut off from that I have an easier time picturing some level of assimilation as more likely.
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