Most discussions about Operation Downfall revolve around the affects on Japan itself and America, but I want to explore what happens to Korea in the event of a successful Kyujo coup, the atomic bombs being delayed, or other PODs although it is understandable the relative lack of focus on there, considering how little military effort would be required to secure Korea, in contrast to the bloody slog America would have to go through on the Home Islands itself. But what would happen in Korea in the meantime? The Soviets have already invaded Manchuria and are in the process of occupying the northern part, so a critical question is, does Stalin go for the southern part as well, or does he let a token force of Americans take it? It is important to consider, that the transfer of power was already underway and the Governor Generalate of Korea was effectively rendered moribund, leaving the IJA left as the main opponent. It is important to consider, that if the Soviets decide to take over the South as well, they will be able to access potential leftist collaborators in greater numbers than in North Korea IOTL, and in this environment, it's unlikely a soldier like Kim-il-Sung would be able to rise in this situation. The Provisional Government of Korea, if it still forms, could it potentially be recognized by the Soviets, coopted with some of their own committees probably? Who ends up leading this ATL Korea? Or do the Soviets let the token American occupation force arrive? And in case of a potential united, Soviet-backed Korea, how would it develop? I consider it very unlikely to develop remotely close to what the DPRK turned into IOTL. And would animosity between Korea and Japan be much higher than it already is?
What happens to Korea in the event that Japan does not surrender?
- Thread starter SunKing105
- Start date
Admiral Bloonbeard
Kicked
Same as OTL. The borders were already decided. As for the actual invasion :
Japan does not surrender after atomic bombs, how does the Soviet invasion of Manchuria go?
Of note, the Southern route was covered by the Tunghua defensive redoubt. No, it was not. That map only shows the area of responsibility of the various armies, not the region covered by the defensive redoubt. This map, on the other hand, does show that: The redoubt is the big circle in the...
www.alternatehistory.com
If the Americans are busy with a bloody slog through the home islands that has the potential to claim up to 1 million American lives then Korea would be peripheral for them, and if Stalin chooses to disregard the agreement at Yalta and occupy the whole peninsula, the Americans are not in a position to do anything about it.
This would affect the Cold War massively. I say this for one main reason, Containment. If the US see's a colony of a foreign nation falling to Communism, even though it has been imposed by the invading army they they are more likely to discourage the European powers from withdrawing from their own colonies. In addition, the US (and potentially Britain) may station troops in Japan similar to what they did with regards to West Germany in OTL. Finally, the US would be more likely to intervene in the Chinese civil war on behalf of Chiang Kai-Shek and the Kuomintang as if Mao successfully took control of China, than Western Democracy would be almost entirely pushed out of the Far East.
Admiral Bloonbeard
Kicked
At this point, that’s the equivalent of a reverse Operation Unthinkable and you’re calling for World War 3
Stalin does not even have nukes yet, and I was referring to a potential takeover before the American occupation force arrived.
Admiral Bloonbeard
Kicked
That won’t happen. OTL, The Japanese actions were due to the emperor’s wishes rather than military defeat. The Kwantung Army was undefeated, and retreated back to the well fortified tunghua line. Operation August Storm was considered an Operation Failure. The Japanese planned to use chemical and bio weapons against the Soviets. The Soviet’s logistics were already at their breaking point and the American estimated there would be 6 more months of campaigning. The Americans expected 600,000 Soviet casualties, while Soviets themselves expected 1 million. See thread above I gave you for more info.
Stalin doesn't have nukes, but the USA does. World War 3 would be bad for both sides (although at this point it might just be considered a 2nd stage of World War II) but the Western Allies would prevail if it broke out in 1945. The western allies absolutely had the ability to destroy the USSR, but they decided it wasn't worth the bloodshed or the trouble of selling their people on the war after having pushed propaganda for years singing the virtues of their Russian allies; that's going to change if Stalin goes beyond the agreement.