TL-191: Postwar

[Koushikb8768]

I would expect significant resistance movements to Japanese rule in Manchuria, Indochina, and the Dutch East Indies at a minimum and probably Korea and the Philippines as well.

I actually would not, Manchuria and Korea are likely to be fully Japanese sooner than later. The Philippines are likely to see a divide-and-rule strategy with Japanese settlement happening in Luzon, Mindoro, and the Visayas and the Moro having autonomy. As for Indochina and the Duch East Indies, I expect them to become ruled by collaborator client states with at least a modicum of popular support. This is a not insane, still imperialist Japan.

I suspect that Japan will likely economically surpass Germany by the 60s or 70s; maybe even the late 50s; with an undamaged metropole and a massive empire to siphon wealth and surplus labour from. Along with Japan's client state approach to its colonies being easier to keep going than Germany's direct occupation of Africa and having basically no enemies who can directly threaten the home Islands.

As long as Japan can keep China and SEA under its thumb, it stands a good chance of simply outlasting both Germany and America. If it has India too then it absolutely will outlast the Kaiserreich and America and bury them under a vastly larger market and gradually squeezing both of them out of more and more of the world's economy as it chips away at Germany's African influence through cynical support of Japanese aligned nationalists in Africa and by supporting pro-Japanese Governments in South America.

Honestly, the nation I see that'll be forced out of the Cold War first is Germany.
Germany had almost lost the war in Europe with its industrial heartland occupied and was saved by pulling nukes out of its ass more or less and isn't actually able to do more than get a white peace with Britain and Russia. Austria-Hungary is also basically unsustainable and is guaranteed to undergo a Yugoslavia but much worse grade implosion sooner or later. Germany is going to have to loot France to the bone to rebuild the Rhineland and still has an unfriendly Britain, Russia, and Spain to deal with while almost certainly being deep in debt to Italy; which would naturally be Europe's primary creditor due to being the only uninvolved great power.

Germany is also almost certainly going to basically loot the French low countries to the last ratchet to try and lower the cost of rebuilding, and its forces would be spread over trying to maintain control over an even larger portion of Africa than it was before and needing to re-establish control of its colonies after most of them got occupied by the Franco-British again.

Germany has also suffered catastrophic proportionate losses in two world wars. With the second world war being as costly as the first in terms of manpower if not more so and having had at least one of its cities literally nuked, Germany is a country devoid of working-age men and its demographics, based on the Russian or OTL German example, are unlikely to ever fully recover. There's going to be a hollow void of working age men that will demographically haunt Germany for generations, while it's also unlikely to ever pass a hundred million people.

Also Germany still has an unfriendly Britain and Russia; weakened and battered as they are; present to align towards anyone who can provide them aid against the Germans. Meanwhile Japan and America have no real proximate threats to their core territories.

Germany is also competing with Japan which has suffered very little and essentially taken over all of Asia and has a vastly larger market and human labour pool than Germany which has the smallest population of the world's superpowers and has no possible enemies able to threaten the Japanese Home Islands. The Japanese economy will almost certainly surpass the German one by the 70s as it exploits the wealth of Asia and threads its influence into Africa (which Germany can barely control since in every world war they have to politely ask for their African colonies back due to France and Britain being able to easily occupy them) and South America.

The Russians didn't have much success in the Second Great War having been unable to seize Warsaw or East Prussia even if they overran Ukraine, the Baltic States, and Finland so Germany should have its East relatively undamaged.
Conversely the French and Brits overran Germany as far west as Hamburg and the Germans never got as far as Paris in their counterattack so western Germany should be chewed up badly from all the years of fighting and occupation.
Italy is completely fine.
The Ottomans were presumably in the SGW and I assume the Russians attacked them in the Caucases and the Brits attacked them at sea and from Egypt.
Austria-Hungary is depicted as at the edge of collapse with it being mentioned that Serbs, Albanians, Croats, Bosniacks, and other ethnicities are using autobombs and people bombs as well as guns the Czar gave them.
Germany won in Europe seemingly because of the nuclear bomb as they weren't occupying hardly any of Russia and hadn't seized Paris.

 

[kernel]

Concerning the New Democrats’ anti-immigration policy, is it anti-immigrant across the board or only anti-immigrant from some parts of the world (Asia/Africa/Eastern Europe etc)? Also, anti-Semitic? I got the feeling from TL-191 that anti-Semitism was very muted due to anti-Confederate sentiments. It still exists for sure and many New Democrats might be anti-Semitic but to embrace it as a policy plank I feel would hurt their chances at seizing power and the US has become very aware of racism going too far (I.e the Population Reduction)

The New Democrats are mostly anti-immigration from Asia (as Yellow Peril is probably more pronounced in this TL), as well as from Eastern and Southern Europe, but are probably not too worried about immigration overall. Due to the fact that African American's don't make up a large part of the U.S. population in TL-191, most discrimination is likely to be against other white ethnic groups seen as below the WASP majority as well as Asians.

Antisemetism is certainly not a policy plank of the New Democrats, and probably not openly professed by a majority of them. However, there are a sizable number who have antisemetic feelings, especially among the more ultranationalist sections. In OTL anti-Semetism was pretty common in the US until WW2.

In a 1938 poll, approximately 60 percent of the respondents held a low opinion of Jews, labeling them "greedy," "dishonest," and "pushy."[39] 41 percent of respondents agreed that Jews had "too much power in the United States," and this figure rose to 58 percent by 1945.[40] Several surveys taken from 1940 to 1946 found that Jews were seen as a greater threat to the welfare of the United States than any other national, religious, or racial group.[41]

However, antisemetism isn't shared by all New Democrats. In addition, several Jewish people, such as Henry Morganthau Jr., are New Democrats.

Also "New Democrats" is more of a label applied by later historians to a loose and ideologically diverse movement, rather than a unified political bloc. For example, while Scoop Jackson and Gerald L.K. Smith belong to the same party and dislike the Old Democrats (though for different reasons), they will want nothing to do with one another.

 

[bguy]

The big difference is that OTL the USA had not payed all the money for the war by itself, not have vast zone of his territory devastated by the war, see his city bombarded and also in need to occupy the entire south (except Texas) where unlike OTL Germany and Japan there is an active and nasty resistence...so making comparisation with OTL is not possible even because unlike OTL there is no previous experience in building long range bomber like the B-29 (that as other pointed costed the double of the entire Manhattan program) so getting something similar to the B-36 will be even more difficult (and IRC it was a b..c for the maintenance crew).

In OTL the US not only funded its own war effort but also contributed mightily to the war efforts of the United Kingdom, the Soviet Union, China and all the other allied powers. (The war also lasted a year longer than the SGW did, and it would not surprise me if the US had more men under arms IOTL than they had in TL-191, because it wouldn't take a 15 million man military to beat the CSA.)

As for devastation, the Soviet Union suffered far greater physical devastation (over a much larger area) than the TL-191 US did, and it was starting from a smaller economy too boot, and it still managed to maintain a huge conventional military, develop nuclear weapons, and make major advances in rocketry (that led to them putting the first satellite and man in space.)

And again if the US economy really is as hurting as you think, that is an argument for greater emphasis on nuclear forces not less, because nuclear forces are much cheaper than conventional forces.

And regardless of the cost and difficulty of developing intercontinental bombers, it is still something TL-191 US needs to do since most of their likely enemies in future conflicts are now overseas nations. Do you really think that after winning an election by pillorying the Socialists for letting Featherston build up his miltiary while doing nothing to prepare the US for war, Dewey is going to turn around and make the exact same mistake. That's not how Dewey behaved IOTL (where he favored increased defense spending), and there's even less reason for him to take that view in TL-191 (where it would be political suicide.)

Ehh nope, strangely at as it seem people want to eat, having an house, etc. etc. and with the CSA out and the rebels in Canada and Utah suppressed people will desire go bact to normality or better go back to their home as millions of people will have been displaced by the war. Japan is a distant menace for another day, the immediate is a warm plate full of food and a roof under your head, maybe even a job, etc. etc.

And again there is no evidence in the novels that the people in the US at large are suffering from any shortage of food or housing. (The fact that Flora, one of the most humanitarian minded characters in the entire series, is thinking about having green space for her neighborhood rather than about her constituents getting enough to eat, shows that food security in particular is just not an issue in the post-war U.S..)

And people also want to feel safe, which they are not likely to do if the nation that has repeatedly attacked them in the last 30 years (with one of the attacks being a sneak attack and another being jumping on the US while it was down), develops nuclear weapons. The idea that the TL-191 US, a country known for its extreme militarization, would not only acquiesce to Japan developing nuclear weapons but would not bother to develop its own strategic forces even in the face of Germany and Japan both developing their nuclear forces is wildly implausible. (IOTL in 1940 the U.S. was still in the middle of the Great Depression with millions of people out of work, but when Germany overran France, that didn't stop the US government from authorizing the biggest naval buildup in world history. People want to feel safe, and when they feel threatened they are willing to make sacrifices in other areas to insure that safety.)

Sure, but see your entire strategy is based on the axiom: do as we told you or you will be obliterated if we can't do a surgical strike. Great powers but any nation in general don't take this kind of menace very lightly and usually care a lot about their independence, so even if unreliable will be used...after all the other option is dying in a nuclear fire so why care for the consequences?

No, the other option is just foregoing nuclear weapons. (Something Italy and Brazil in particular hardly need.) Deliberately picking a fight with a nuclear power when you don't have nuclear weapons is already insane. Picking said fight and then unleashing small pox or anthrax or some other bioweapon on a nation that is just a couple of hundred miles from you (meaning the bioweapon will inevitably hit your people as well) is, well insane doesn't even seem adequate to describe what kind of thinking that would require.

Plus as i said, Germany will win but will lose so much that she will not really feel like a victors and this is deterrence, so again no, Germany will surely not start immediately go for massive retaliation against nation that can fight back because fighting an enemy that can hurt you is a lot less funny, there is a reason why massive retaliation was dismissed when the URSS started to have enough nuclear weapons and there was the real danger of being hit

And notably the US did not move away from Massive Retaliation until the mid 1960s, when the Soviets had the ability to strike the continental United States with large numbers of nuclear weapons. There's no indication the US was particularly afraid of Soviet chemical (or biological) weapon stockpiles. It was deliverable nuclear weapons that made MAD a reality.

There have been the Utah rebellion with terrorist attack all over the nation, millions of displaced, great damage to the most industrializated zone of the nation, bombing all over the nations and that can be much much more than a nuisance as OTL Europe can attest so no the american economy will not be perfectly intact even because the passage from war to peacetime will cause your regular economic downturn not considering the enourmous debt necessary to pay the war.

Even a damaged US economy is enormous though. I think you are seriously underestimating its capacity and its resilience.

Regarding SAC, well SAC for now don't exist, this USA don't have any experience or equipment for something akin to OTL SAC and while congresswoman Flora and his committe can discuss about utopian city and national park financement all they want, another matter is really obtain that money as the numerous postwar project dismissed or delayed for lack of resources can demonstrate...expecially if Dewey want to concentrate in the veterans welfare and reconstruction

Flora seemed confident she would get at least some of the money she wanted for her project, and her political instincts are usually portrayed as being pretty good. (And notably she was not telling the architect, "we can't afford this, we've got starving people in Ohio that have to be our priority", so obviously she doesn't see the US in dire financial straits.)

I actually would not, Manchuria and Korea are likely to be fully Japanese sooner than later.

Even with a surviving China next door? As long as China is independent they are going to be supporting resistance movements in Manchuria. (And how is Korea going to become fully Japanese when the Korean population is not allowed equal rights within Japanese society? People tend to ... resent being second class citizens in their own country and IOTL much of the second half of the 20th century was the story of just how difficult it is to impose such status on people.

The Philippines are likely to see a divide-and-rule strategy with Japanese settlement happening in Luzon, Mindoro, and the Visayas and the Moro having autonomy. As for Indochina and the Duch East Indies, I expect them to become ruled by collaborator client states with at least a modicum of popular support. This is a not insane, still imperialist Japan.

Wait, you think Indochina is going to be ok with being ruled by a foreign power? Indochina???? The region that includes Vietnam? The country that for almost 40 years straight fought the Japanese, then the French, then the Americans, and then the Chinese to insure it wouldn't be ruled by a foreign power?

And again if you have an independent China, you are going to have a source of arms and assistance for rebel movements in both Indochina and Indonesia. (The Chinese supported Vietnamese independence IOTL and can be expected to support independence efforts in the East Indies as well since there is a large Chinese minority in the region.)

This is a not insane, still imperialist Japan

Yeah, I'm going to have to object to that one as facts not in evidence. If anything Turtledove portrays TL-191 Japan as more violent and insane than its OTL counterpart, as he implies the Japanese were committing atrocities when they conquered the Philippines around the turn of the 20th century. (Which would mean that TL-191 Japan acted monstrously far earlier in its history than its OTL counterpart did.) And nothing in the later books implies that the Japanese are otherwise practicing enlightened rule in their colonies.

As long as Japan can keep China and SEA under its thumb, it stands a good chance of simply outlasting both Germany and America.

Does Japan have China under its thumb? I don't recall that ever being established in the novels. (There are references to Japan carrying out attacks in China, but that suggests war not domination.)

Germany had almost lost the war in Europe with its industrial heartland occupied and was saved by pulling nukes out of its ass more or less and isn't actually able to do more than get a white peace with Britain and Russia.

I think that's overstating things. The Germans had driven the western allies out of Germany and advanced into the Low Countries long before they used nukes, and they seemed to be holding their own against the Russians just fine as well. (I don't recall the Russians making any significant gains against the Germans except in eastern Ukraine.)

Also Germany still has an unfriendly Britain and Russia; weakened and battered as they are; present to align towards anyone who can provide them aid against the Germans. Meanwhile Japan and America have no real proximate threats to their core territories.

If Russia is a threat to Germany then wouldn't it also be a threat to Japan? It has its own interests in Manchuria and Korea after all, and the U.S. and Germany are likely to encourage Russia's eastern ambitions. (Germany because it wants Russia looking east not west. The US because it wants a potential ally against Japan)

The Japanese economy will almost certainly surpass the German one by the 70s as it exploits the wealth of Asia and threads its influence into Africa (which Germany can barely control since in every world war they have to politely ask for their African colonies back due to France and Britain being able to easily occupy them) and South America.

Again though that requires Japan to be able to hold down multiple countries that are going to want their independence. Did any imperial power succeed at doing that in the 20th century? What is going to make Japan more successful than every other imperial power that tried to do that and got bogged down in endless guerilla wars? (And especially if Japan does becoming increasingly prosperous as the more prosperous Japan becomes the less likely its citizens are going to want to get drafted to go off and die in Indochina or the East Indies.)

 

[Koushikb8768]

Even with a surviving China next door? As long as China is independent they are going to be supporting resistance movements in Manchuria.

Is there is a coherent central authority in China?

If anything Turtledove portrays TL-191 Japan as more violent and insane than its OTL counterpart, as he implies the Japanese were committing atrocities when they conquered the Philippines around the turn of the 20th century.

... dude no, that makes no sense, Japan OTL only went batshit due to resource concerns and insecurity. In TTL Japan has a much more expansive empire from the outset thereby assuaging their resource concerns so they won't have any reason to be violent as they were in OTL

Does Japan have China under its thumb?

I'd be blunt here and say that China is either pro-Japanese or a warlord mess. Either way China will not be in any spot to intervene in Japan's Sphere of Influence for decades to come.

Wait, you think Indochina is going to be ok with being ruled by a foreign power? Indochina???? The region that includes Vietnam?

Yes? All Japan has to do is put some patsies and vaguely improve quality of life (which btw will probly happen with Indochinese resources being exploited by Japanese Corporations and Indochina itself being used as a captive market.)

 

[kernel]

France in the Shadow of Actionism
Pierre Oulett, 2002​

" .... thus the Actionist regime had established an efficient method of resource extraction from its African holdings that would be utilized to great effect during the buildup to war. Through direct administration by High Commissioners, often powerful members of the Accion Francais, the regime employed brutal methods in their quest for colonial profitability, which observers likened to the Congo Free State almost two generations prior. Commissioner rule was bolstered by the thousands of French settlers, soldiers, and mercenaries dispatched by the Metropole. [...]

The Commissioners remained in their positions following the fall of the regime. As the French Provisional Government was saddled by a ruined economy and onerous reparations payments to Germany, comissioner rule was valued for its ability to provide the new French government with raw materials and capital to fund economic relief to its population while also meeting German reparations requirements. As long as the colonies provided for the Metropole, both Germany and France turned a blind eye.

It was this neglect that would give Brigadier General Charles de Gaulle the opportunity to set up networks both inside the West African colonies and France itself. Clandestine meetings between de Gaulle and Commissioners were a regular occurence. Concurrently, the Commissioners began to strenghten their own forces within the colonies, utilizing manpower from both the colonial army as well as hundreds of thousands of settlers fleeing France for a better life in Africa. Further support came from Falangist Spain, who secretly provided the Comissioners with arms and fighter aircraft ...."

 

[TheLastKnight]

The Timeline 191 Japan will not be resource scarce and could easily keep many of its client states under its thumbs, for a bit. Pan-Asianism is much stronger in this world, and if Japan leans heavily into this, they might succeed in keeping resistance movements to a minimum. After Japan bullied France and the Netherlands out of their colonies, the Japanese realistically left the Vietnamese emperor and the kings of Cambodia and Laos on their thrones. That would keep Indochina pretty calm. The monarchs of Malaysia would probably be brought together into a federation, similar to OTL, while Singapore is a part of Japan itself. The Japanese will likely support a national movement in Indonesia. The Philippines will either be divided into various sultanates or will be a republic with sub-national monarchies. There is also the possibility of establishing relations with Burma and India as well. Thailand is most likely an independent ally of Japan, and probably larger due to Pan-Thaiism. And I am not sure what Japan has in store for Russian Siberia. Maybe they even seize the Aleutians. The economies of these nations will be tied to the Co-Prosperity Sphere. Now in time, there would be a crossroad within Japanese politics. Japanese dominance will not last, not with China, India, Thailand and Indonesia within this alliance. So Tokyo will either have to reform the Sphere into an alliance of equals or have it tumble down around them. I am assuming that Manchuria may be a part of Japan itself, like its version of French Algeria, instead of a client state. China could be defeated and placed under a collaborationist government but it will not last. China is too big, even if you remove its border regions like Mongolia, Manchuria, East Turkestan and Tibet. Japan would need to have a policy of a velvet glove until reform comes from within the Sphere.

 

[lukedalton]

The problem of Japan is if they behave like OTL they will be full of rebellion in all their puppet/slaves...because that were the nation of the Co Prosperity sphere as it was a: meet the new boss waaay worse of the old boss.
Not considering that IJA and IJN rivalry will not end because there are more resources, maybe it will be more subdued but it will remain
I said that because well Japan is basically the Draka of the entire TL, he backstab ally, attack nation, inglobe piece of colonial empire and is ignored by everyone while at the same time we don't really know too much about it so we must assume that things are more or less like OTL only with more resources and OTL was an extremely bad case of victor disease that here will be even worse

 

[TheLastKnight]

The thing is that Timeline 191 Japan is one whose power hasn't been checked by the US or by European empires. Japan won a war with Spain and gained a colonial empire and the European powers didn't stop it; which occurred in our timeline after both the Sino-Japanese War and the Russo-Japanese War. Then Japan had minimal losses in the Great War and gained the German colonies in the Pacific. And to top it off, in the interwar period, the empire gained the resource rich French Indochina and Dutch East Indies. This is a victorious Japan and it most likely will not behave the exact same as it did in OTL. The culture of feeling margalized or being treated as a second rate power isn't there. We know nothing of the political climate of Japan at the time. Its allies like Britain, France, Russia and the CSA were ruled by revanchist political groups, but perhaps in this TL, Taisho Democracy may have succeeded as it was under a democratic parliamentary system that Japan is a global power and not resource dependent on the West. It is also evident that the Entente in the Second Great War are incredibly reliant on Japan economically and it most certainly sits at the table as second only to Britain. The British Empire is probably the only economically independent power in the Entente besides Japan. But Britain is a fading power as the war goes on, and Japan is not. This Japan is more likely to take calculated risks because they have been rolling Nat 20s since the Hispano-Japanese War. I wish Turtledove gave us a little bit of a glimpse of Japan in his books, because it sounds like he intended for Japan to go the exact same route it would have in our timeline, even though the same experiences are not there anymore.

 

[lukedalton]

The thing is that Timeline 191 Japan is one whose power hasn't been checked by the US or by European empires. Japan won a war with Spain and gained a colonial empire and the European powers didn't stop it. Then Japan had minimal losses in the Great War and gained the German colonies in the Pacific. And to top it off, in the interwar period, the empire gained the resource rich French Indochina and Dutch East Indies. This is a victorious Japan. The culture of feeling margalized or being treated as a second rate power isn't there. We know nothing of the political climate of Japan at the time. Its allies like Britain, France, Russia and the CSA were ruled by revanchist political groups, but perhaps in this TL, Taisho Democracy may have succeeded as it was under a democratic parliamentary system that Japan is a global power and not resource dependent on the West. I wish Turtledove gave us a little bit of a glimpse of Japan in his books, because it sounds like he intended for Japan to go the exact same route it would have in our timeline, even though the same experiences are not there anymore.

And that's, with the inclusion of totally ignoring Italy aka the only great powers that had been neutral in both great wars my pet problems with the entire TL, we don't know nothing of an aggressive nation that had quickly expanded and continued to expand and that had fought a war with the USA in the interwar period, a war started by Japan bombing Los Angeles* and lasted 5 years but ehy Tokyo simply decide: ok, bored now we can stop i have other things to do and the USA agree

* This move basically out of nowhere really don't make me thik that the Taisho democracy is still a thing and not the psycho villain of OTL.

 

[TheLastKnight]

The exclusion of Italy always bothered me. I could get if Italy sat out of the Great War. But there is no way that Italy wouldn't find a side to take in the Second Great War. I don't even think Italy invaded Ethiopia in Timeline 191. In the first decades after the Second Great War, the USA and Japan would indeed be too busy to go after each other. The USA has the reconstruction of many of its territories, most likely a bushwhacker campaign across the southern states, and there is the admittance of the Canadian provinces into the USA. Japan is waste deep in an inconclusive war with China which would keep the Japanese Army busy as well as seizing the British colonies and Russian Siberia. The Japanese military doesn't have an endless supply of soldiers to fight a war on the other side of the Pacific. They would have insurrections as well and would have to garrison their own vast territories. Even supplying independence movements in India and Burma would also keep Japan focused on its own backyard. A cold war between them and the US would most likely happen, especially if Japan gets nukes. Also I wish Turtledove went into what is going on with China and how is it holding out against the Japanese as long as it has. Like are the British or the Russians supplying the Chinese; but they are also Japan's allies. I will concede to that fact that the Taisho democracy failed in this Japan as well and the Imperial Rule Assistance Association came to power in Japan.

 

[TheLastKnight]

I'm curious on whether a post-war France will become a republic or stay an Orleanist monarchy with its Actionist elements removed. The French in TL 191 went back to a king as they felt republicanism failed after the loss in the Great War. So I think the German occupation administration and most certainly the Kaiser would support keeping the Orleanist monarchy but create a parliamentary system similar to their own.

 

[lukedalton]

In the first decades after the Second Great War, the USA and Japan would indeed be too busy to go after each other. The USA has the reconstruction of many of its territories, most likely a bushwhacker campaign across the southern states, and there is the admittance of the Canadian provinces into the USA. Japan is waste deep in an inconclusive war with China which would keep the Japanese Army busy as well as seizing the British colonies and Russian Siberia. The Japanese military doesn't have an endless supply of soldiers to fight a war on the other side of the Pacific. They would have insurrections as well and would have to garrison their own vast territories. Even supplying independence movements in India and Burma would also keep Japan focused on its own backyard.

Oh i agree, my beef is that Japan tried that idiocy due to (plot?) reason and no consequences result from this, like the USA supporting any rebels groups in the de facto Japanese Empire.
Regarding Italy, A-H seem to have puppettized Albania that's an enormous big no no for any italian government so tension will be extremely high so or Italy sold his neutrality for an hefty price otherwise will have joined the Entente

 

[Michael B]

* This move basically out of nowhere really don't make me thik that the Taisho democracy is still a thing and not the psycho villain of OTL.

On OTL the Army and Navy were able to veto the formation of governments that they did not like by withdrawing the Army and/or Navy Minsters. You can't run a democracy like that.

Japan is waste deep in an inconclusive war with China which would keep the Japanese Army busy as well as seizing the British colonies and Russian Siberia. The Japanese military doesn't have an endless supply of soldiers to fight a war on the other side of the Pacific. They would have insurrections as well and would have to garrison their own vast territories. Even supplying independence movements in India and Burma would also keep Japan focused on its own backyard. A cold war between them and the US would most likely happen, especially if Japan gets nukes. Also I wish Turtledove went into what is going on with China and how is it holding out against the Japanese as long as it has. Like are the British or the Russians supplying the Chinese; but they are also Japan's allies. I will concede to that fact that the Taisho democracy failed in this Japan as well and the Imperial Rule Assistance Association came to power in Japan.

In other words they have the same problems as their US and German counterparts, ie hostile territories to police. All three powers are going to invest in large armies and thus think twice about spending on flash intercontinental bombers and rockets . The Germans could cheat by putting IRBMs in Shanghai, but that is as far as it might go.

TL_191 might end up in the paradoxical state of affairs that in say 1960 the superpowers would be more likely than OTL to use nucs, but have Soviet as opposed to US levels of superbombs.

One spinoff of the need to hold hostile territories could be a faster development of helicopters . Without the allied bombing of OTL the Fa 223 Drache could be in greater numbers. It could only carry 2 crew and 4 passengers, but is a start. The next generation could easily be in service in the early 50s with the German Falmschimjager. The USA could easily licence version before designing their own.

On deployment, Cannuck winters preclude using them all the year round, but that would not be an issue in the former Reb states. The Texas Rangers can use a few too against any Freedom Party hold outs.

 

[YusaEmi]

The US was pretty confident of its ability to hit the Soviet Union with intercontinental bombers IOTL, and I haven't seen any indication that confident was misplaced.

You do realize there's a vast difference between flying bombers out of Western Europe (primarily out of Western Germany)to hit the Soviet Union vs flying bombers out from Wake, Midway and the Honolulu to hit Japan right? The former is only a third the distance that they would need to cover before entering Soviet airspace from their closest bases in West Germany, their situations and the logistics behind them are completely incomparable.

 

[YusaEmi]

SAC IOTL in 1949 estimated it would lose 35% of its bombers in a nighttime strike on the Soviet Union and 50% in a daytime strike. There's no reason to believe Imperial Japan in TL-191 would do better than the OTL Soviets were projected to do and considerable reason to think they would do worse. (Remember US bombers would have had to fly over the Soviet Union (a continent spanning nation) for a lot longer than they would have to fly over Imperial Japan (a relatively small island where most of the targets are near the coastline.) But even if we imagine the Japanese are able to inflict losses at a rate comparable to what the Soviets were projected to do, if even only half the US bombers get through that's still more than enough to utterly devastate Japan. (Indeed if even only a quarter of the US bombers get through that is still going to put a serious hurt on Japan.) Seriously, hoss how many nuclear hits do you think Japan can take?

AGAIN, as I said previously the OTL bombers flying out from Europe would cover only a third the distance that the bombers from TL-191 would need to cover to reach Japan. While flying over almost exclusively water, giving the Japanese several hours to detect and intercept them.

Remember US bombers would have had to fly over the Soviet Union (a continent spanning nation) for a lot longer than they would have to fly over Imperial Japan (a relatively small island where most of the targets are near the coastline.)

You know they wouldn't be flying out from the US right? What are you even talking about? Those bombers would be flying out from Western Europe.

 

[kernel]

For TL-191: Postwar, would you all prefer a year by year format (like the 1944 and 1945 posts) or a scrapbook format (like my previous two posts and similar to KingSweden's Cinco de Mayo)?

 

[Tanner151]

For TL-191: Postwar, would you all prefer a year by year format (like the 1944 and 1945 posts) or a scrapbook format (like my previous two posts and similar to KingSweden's Cinco de Mayo)?

I would prefer year by year for the USA but scrapbook of other countries and events outside North America.

 

[lukedalton]

For TL-191: Postwar, would you all prefer a year by year format (like the 1944 and 1945 posts) or a scrapbook format (like my previous two posts and similar to KingSweden's Cinco de Mayo)?

I go for year to year format

 

[bguy]

Is there is a coherent central authority in China?

The novels don't really address the situation in China much, but it seems implausible that at some point a central authority wouldn't develop.

... dude no, that makes no sense, Japan OTL only went batshit due to resource concerns and insecurity. In TTL Japan has a much more expansive empire from the outset thereby assuaging their resource concerns so they won't have any reason to be violent as they were in OTL

Here's the relevant quote from the books.

"His reports from Manila as the Japanese were entering the city were classics in their way. So were his reports on what they'd done to the Spanish prisoners they'd taken though those hadn't been filed till he was safely out of the Philippines."
-Great War, American Front, Chapter XIV

I agree it doesn't make sense, but frankly a lot of TL-191 doesn't make sense. (Britain and Frank intervening in the Second Mexican War didn't make sense. The Confederates being willing to give up slavery, the core of their entire society, so they could acquire the land to build a railroad across the Mexican desert didn't make sense. The Confederates being able to go toe to toe with a power with twice their population and more than twice their industry, while actively genociding 1/3 of their population, and beating the US to the atomic bomb, really didn't make sense.)

I'd be blunt here and say that China is either pro-Japanese or a warlord mess. Either way China will not be in any spot to intervene in Japan's Sphere of Influence for decades to come.

Here's what was said about China in Return Engagement.

"The J*** might take away Hong Kong on invade Australia, too. I don't think they want to do that. We're still on their plate, and they've got designs on China."
-Return Engagement, Chapter 13

That implies that while Japan wishes to expand into China, it does not control China yet.

Yes? All Japan has to do is put some patsies and vaguely improve quality of life (which btw will probly happen with Indochinese resources being exploited by Japanese Corporations and Indochina itself being used as a captive market.)

So the same approach that the US tried IOTL.

AGAIN, as I said previously the OTL bombers flying out from Europe would cover only a third the distance that the bombers from TL-191 would need to cover to reach Japan. While flying over almost exclusively water, giving the Japanese several hours to detect and intercept them.

IOTL the B-36s were designed to fly at a height above which Soviet radar could detect them. I would assume the US will make similar design choices in TL-191.

You know they wouldn't be flying out from the US right? What are you even talking about? Those bombers would be flying out from Western Europe.

Incorrect. IOTL most of SAC's assets during the Cold War were stationed in North America. They were going to hit the Soviets by flying north from North America and coming in across the Arctic Circle not by coming in from Europe. (You want your long range bombers based as far away from enemy territory as possible to reduce the likelihood of them getting caught on the ground in a surprise attack.)

Relevant quote from the B-36 wikipedia page

"War missions would have been one-way, taking off from forward bases in Alaska or Greenland, overflying the USSR, and landing in Europe, Morocco, or the Middle East. "

Convair B-36 Peacemaker - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And that was even more the case later on with the B-52s, which had longer range that the B-36s and thus could be stationed much further away and still reach the Soviet Union. If you look at the wikipedia page for historical B-52 units you'll notice that many of them were stationed in the southern United States.

List of B-52 Units of the United States Air Force - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Koushikb8768]

"His reports from Manila as the Japanese were entering the city were classics in their way. So were his reports on what they'd done to the Spanish prisoners they'd taken though those hadn't been filed till he was safely out of the Philippines."
-Great War, American Front, Chapter XIV

Sorry this just doesn't just not make sense, it's straight up wrong

Japan treated the 80,000 Russian POWs well in the 1905 Russo-Japanese war and was commended by the International Red Cross for its treatment of Russian POWs. This was apparently driven by Japan's desire to be seen as a nation equal to western powers. In the previous 1894 Sino-Japanese war, Chinese prisoners and civilians had been treated rather badly and massacred at Port Arthur. A fact which the Japanese Army and government obscured for it's own internal reasons as well as negative international opinion. 5,000 German troops captured in 1914 also received good treatment and had a low death rate (approx 1%) for three years of captivity.

Japan's treatment of it's own captured soldiers and sailors for those three conflicts is a more complex story. The ideals of the Japanese military emphasized death before dishonor in all of it's wars, but their policy was often flexible. In Japan's civil wars prisoners were either executed or pardoned depending on political expediency. In the Sino-Japanese war, propaganda was produced demonizing the Chinese for cruelty and warning troops against surrender, but almost no troops (only 11, 10 porters and a soldier with a head wound) actually found themselves in a situation where it would have been required to surrender.

In the Russo-Japanese war about 2,000 Japanese troop were captured during the war and repatriated at the end of it. These cases were all investigated by postwar military councils to make sure they did their full duty before being captured. Soldiers could expect to have to apologize and endure insults, but were seldom harshly punished, and only a few officers were forced to resign or cashiered. However, informal administrative punishment could be very unpleasant, and out of the service some former prisoners were ostracized by their communities and forced to move elsewhere. Stories circulated regarding the disgraceful fates of dishonored soldiers and their families and these set the stage for the later official and unofficial prohibitions against surrender in the WWII era.

Source: Drea, Edward J. Japan's Imperial Army: Its Rise and Fall 1853-1945

seems implausible that at some point a central authority wouldn't develop.

If Japan has control over Manchuria, than Chinese Central Authority does not exist. And besides, Japan has the power to disintegrate the whole damned country. In OTL they managed to make successful offensives against China as late as 1944, in TTL Japan would just obliterate China in a war.

Honestly I see Imperial Japan having a good chance to win the Cold War, I already said why Germany would become irrelevant by the 70s and now i'll talk about why America will collapse.

Personally, I think they could keep ahold of Canada easily enough because well...All you have to do is swamp the place in Settlers and you outnumber the people there. Not to say that the Candian Population would be irrelevant but managing to dislodge the Americans? Nah. As for Utah, they answered that in probably one of the Cringiest scenes of the books. Flora Hamburger got to pushing a plan of whats basically Ethnic Cleansing and deporting all the Mormons to Hawii (And this is depicted as a Good Idea, which also because it comes from Flora "concieus of the House" Hamburger makes it pure cringe). But on the Confedracy? Yeah, I dont see it happening. The South has had too long to develop a indepdent identity and unlike Canada, you cant just drown them in Numbers. You could maybe make it work if you took a more soft handed policy to Military occupation and focused on making peoples lives as comfortable as possible and educating the next generation as 100 percent Americans but well... stuff like killing 1500 people for the death of 32 sailors is not making any freinds. Thus it counts on the political will of the American people to maintain the Occupation and after the first Remeberance Generation thats going fade fast.

We see US has Philly superbombed by Potter. Newport News was superbombed by the Americans. The former CSA is an economic ruin after a devastating war and a genocide, Canada had a three year rebellion that hindered the US war effort, the Mormons rose up (again). At least half a dozen or so states experienced active fighting and widespread destruction. I expect the US to be very sort of draconian especially given how they treated people in Florida post-war.

I don't see Canada getting self-determination. The Democrats are the Party of Remembrance and won't give up power to the Canadians, the Socialists are tarred by the Richmond Agreement and will be unwilling to risk another blow-up in their face, and the Republicans have been out of power since 1884 and are the point-five in the 2.5 party system the US has. With the Democrats unwilling to compromise, the Socialists tarred by their last attempt at compromise, and the Republicans unable to do anything, the situation will just inevitably become untenable while the US gets in a Cold War-esque scenario with the Germans and the Japanese.

The US is, as far as I see it, a Prussian-style USSR which will inevitably collapse under its own weight while it was suppressing the Mormons, the Canadians, and the former Confederates.

The ratio I've generally seen is 1 soldier for every 50 civilians for effective counter-insurgency. And while have no idea what the population of all the US occupied territories will be by 1990, if we go by OTL's 1990 population numbers that will give us some idea of how big a military the US might have to maintain just to hold onto those territories.

The Southern states (including Kentucky and Oklahoma but not including Texas) have an estimated 60,611,407 people, so that would require 1,212,228 soldiers.

Canada (not including Quebec) has an estimated 20,793,014 people, so that would require 415,860 soldiers.

Utah has an estimated 1,722,850 people, so that would require 34,457 soldiers.

Cuba has an estimated 10.6 million people, so that would require 212,000 soldiers.

The 2 Baja provinces, Sonora and Chihuahua have an estimated 6,244,098 people, so that would require 124,881 soldiers.

And Hawaii has an estimated 985,000 people, so that would require 19,700 soldiers.

So if all those places still require military occupation then the US would need an army of 2,019,126 soldiers just for occupation duty. And realistically the U.S. Armed Forces will probably have to be at least twice that size so that the U.S. can have a decent navy and air force and some reserve capability. As such we're probably looking at a military of at least 4 million people. The U.S. probably can just barely afford that but it will mean accepting considerably higher taxes and a greatly reduced welfare state from OTL.

There's a non-zero chance that we see both Germany and America collapsing and a Imperial Japan ascending as the world's hyperpower, drawing all nations under the sun under the co-prosperity sphere and the twenty first century being the Japanese Century.

Which might make for an interesting grimdark timeline as Japan brings the Co-Prosperity system to Europe and North America and gradually crushes all hope for the future through crushing mandatory economic specialisation and stripping the former Imperial core of the world for wealth like Britain did with India and China in the 19th century until Europe and North America are driven to poverty to elevate Japan's prosperity to unmatched heights.