The year of the Frech 1796(Ireland)

BELFAST

BELFAST

The year of the French 1796 (Ireland)

" Wolfe Tone's efforts succeeded with the dispatch of the Expédition d'Irlande, and he accompanied a force of 14,000 French veteran troops under General Hoche which arrived off the coast of Ireland at Bantry Bay in December 1796 after eluding the Royal Navy."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Rebellion_of_1798#Aborted_invasion_.281796.29

Instead of being driven back by bad weather the French land troops and with more French troops on the way the Irish rebellion succeeds.

Ireland is declared a republic.

How would this change the rest of Irish history?
 
Last edited:

dduff442

Assuming the Ballincollig arsenal could be captured reasonably intact then the invasion could become very powerful. His French troops were (I'd guess) of high quality and Hoche was also a past master at working with poorly trained militia. Some would even say that the huge clouds of skirmishers he worked with during the revolutionary wars were even more effective than formed troops.

Circumstances were not nearly so bitter as they became after e.g. the execution of William Orr or the 1798 rebellion and the associated sectarian atrocities and brutal repression, so some prospect of establishing an orderly government must have existed. Even so, it's hard to imagine the invasion passing off entirely without sectarian strife.

The position of people like John Curran or Lord Edward Fitzgerald would have been vital giving the new authorities an incentive to promote moderation. The government could not posses very much power so long as it remained utterly dependent on Hoche's forces, however. (Information on Hoche's record in the Vendée would be of interest here.)

That's probably the end of the happy tale for Ireland, though. The invasion will trigger a transformation in British strategy from sustainable peripheral actions to something resembling total war. Assuming France can't capitalise and launch a successful invasion of the British mainland, either Britain re-conquers Ireland or (I'm guessing more probably) Napoleon trades the country away, pulling the rug out from under the whole enterprise.

The effects on Britain could be drastic, especially if the conservative reaction to Hoche's invasion is severe in Britain itself. Historically, Britain managed to get by in spite of Napoleon's huge if eccentric fan club existing in the country. The period between 1815 and 1848 was still the rockiest in Britain between 1789 and the present day.

Should a figure like General Lake be let loose on England the long-term consequences could be drastic.
 
BELFAST

BELFAST

I see Ireland becoming a republic with a written model on the American one.
Ireland is divided in to 4 provinces with the own provincial governments.
Connacht
Leinster
Munster
Ulster
Most law are made by provincial government.

French and Irish win on land by the British gain the upper hand at sea.

I am thinking of a rebellion in Scotland too lead by Thomas Muir of the Society of the United Scotsmen
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Society_of_the_United_Scotsmen with

With Dutch to land in Scotland with some 50,000 troops and to take over the Scottish Central Belt.

England is not invaded.
 
Last edited:

Remicas

For the Irish constitution, I think they'd rather use the Directoire as a model than the american constitution (like the other Républiques-soeurs, with some adjustement of course).

Celtomania in the late Republic ? Oh boy, that's an interesting thought. But would the Scottish want to rebel against the English ?
 
LSCatilina

LSCatilina

Remicas said:
Celtomania in the late Republic ? Oh boy, that's an interesting thought. But would the Scottish want to rebel against the English ?
Click to expand...

Don't think so. Too many interest convergent with Britain.

By Celtomania I meant that, instead of Egypt (A lasting presence in Irerland forcing French to give up such adventurous expeditions), you'll have the "rediscovery" of Ireland and ancient Celtic cultures with the revival of figures as Vercingetorix in nationalist purposes (more or less what Nappy III did OTL).
 

Remicas

LSCatilina said:
Don't think so. Too many interest convergent with Britain.

By Celtomania I meant that, instead of Egypt (A lasting presence in Irerland forcing French to give up such adventurous expeditions), you'll have the "rediscovery" of Ireland and ancient Celtic cultures with the revival of figures as Vercingetorix in nationalist purposes (more or less what Nappy III did OTL).
Click to expand...

That's the way I understood it, I was just answering to BELFAST for his Scotland rebelion theory . And politically the impact of such a rediscovery are not the same : while the fascination to Egypt was one for an ancient and exotic civilization, a "revival of figures as Vercingetorix in nationalist purpose" will deviate from the original French conception of nationality (a concious social contract) to a more German one (nationality by blood/culture).
 
LSCatilina

LSCatilina

Remicas said:
while the fascination to Egypt was one for an ancient and exotic civilization, a "revival of figures as Vercingetorix in nationalist purpose" will deviate from the original French conception of nationality (a concious social contract) to a more German one (nationality by blood/culture).
Click to expand...

The problem is that the french concept of nation was already built all along the XVIII and could knew only some variants from it at this point. A Celt-based propaganda would likely be more based on "Former fighters of freedom" (it was debated, admittedly in the early years to rename France as Gaul to delete monarchic inheritence so not really unlikely) rather than "Former fighters of France".

Critically if such rediscovery is made thanks to Ireland, it could turn quickly as more an "ideological" concept of Celticism rathern than nationalistic.

Arguably, it could provoke an earlier and different Romantic Age.
 
LSCatilina

LSCatilina

RGB said:
Revived Arthuriana could certainly acquire a French rather than English flavour if they were to tread the ground first.
Click to expand...

Didn't Arthuriana have already a French flavour, for being...well, rewrote in French and along french canons and widespread everywhere (including England) in this form rather than having the use of Moonmouth's book?

Besides, if one of the geste should be used in this ATL, I would say the French gesture of Charlemagne's paladins would be probably more used, critically if we end as in OTL with a French Empire.
 

RGB

LSCatilina said:
Didn't Arthuriana have already a French flavour, for being...well, rewrote in French and along french canons and widespread everywhere (including England) in this form rather than having the use of Moonmouth's book?
Click to expand...

I wasn't talking Arthuriana per se, more its REVIVAL. 19th c. Romanticism and all that. By end-century it took on a decidedly British flavour because they partly appropriated the Celtic historical maybe-background.

Anyway, minor point.
 

Simreeve

How long could an army the size of Hoche's have been provisioned for properly in Ireland? If it stays basically as a single force then I doubt whether any one area (except maybe around Dublin?) could support it for very long so you'd have to move supplies to its location from other areas too, and given the lack of infrastructure in Ireland in those days you'd have to do so mostly by water rather than by land... so cue spoiling expeditions by the Royal Navy. Conversely, if you split the army up so that it can gather supplies from more areas simulataneously, it risks being defeated in detail.

And for that matter, don't French armies of that period tend to live off of the land rather than off of proper supply trains, anyway? Cue transition from "Our glorious liberating allies" to "Those rascally thievin' invaders", and a rise of guerilla warfare against them...
 
Last edited:

Georgie Porgie

BELFAST said:
Instead of being driven back by bad weather the French land troops and with more French troops on the way the Irish rebellion succeeds.

Ireland is declared a republic.

How would this change the rest of Irish history?
Click to expand...

My worry about all these senarios is that they always down play English histeria about French invasion. Just have a look at the south coast of England to see how much effort and expense the English were willing to go to to stop even a rumoured invasion.

I can see the French landing and a popular uprising amongst the Catholics leading to the declariation of an Irish state. But then the English respond.

The first thing will be the Navy re-establishing control of the Irish Sea and invoking a blockade of all unfreindly ports (as they did from Russia to the Med in a couple of years time). This would mean no extra support from France.

I can also see a series of Ship vs land engagements, with the ships coming off better most, if not every time, as Ireland had few anti ship defenses.

Once the towns and cities had been treatened and all livelyhoods disrupted how long would the Free State last? The best outcome I can see is a total surrender with terms being no reprisals, the worst a blood bath of terrible proportions.

France would end up the winner as it would weaken the First Coalition earlier than in OTL and may even delay the Second Coalition until the Irish question was dealt with.
 
BELFAST

BELFAST

Remicas said:
For the Irish constitution, I think they'd rather use the Directoire as a model than the american constitution (like the other Républiques-soeurs, with some adjustement of course).

Celtomania in the late Republic ? Oh boy, that's an interesting thought. But would the Scottish want to rebel against the English ?
Click to expand...

I could see a conflict over following the French or American model. The Catholic have a problem with the French because of the clash between the pope and the French.

I could conflict between support of a update version of Brehon law and the supporters of common law.

For tenant farmers the question of land reform and ownership of land is major question.

The non-conformist (scot-Ulster) favour the American constitution as they know about this from their relatives in America.

With the royal navy wining at sea the French do not have the men to impose there will.

At the end of the conflict in Ireland both the French and English agree to withdraw and neither county gets naval base in Ireland.

Naturally the English are not happy about this and start planning for a conflict else where with the French.

Also the French have bigger problems to deal with as they become involved in conflict with there neighbours.
 
Last edited:
BELFAST

BELFAST

My main interest is not in how Ireland and Scotland gain their independence.
What I am interested in is what effect an independent Ireland and Scotland have on future even like
the potato famine,
the Gaelic language,
The corn laws
Emigration patterns and population size,
American civil war
WWI and WWII
etc

It also would be interesting to see how relations between Ireland and England develop in the long term without Ireland being part of the Empire.
 

Georgie Porgie

BELFAST said:
What I am interested in is what effect an independent Ireland and Scotland have on future even like
the potato famine,
the Gaelic language,
The corn laws
Emigration patterns and population size,
American civil war
WWI and WWII
etc
Click to expand...

At this time it is highly unlikely that Scotland would leave Great Britain, it just wasn't worth it.

The Irish economy without Great Britain would remain very fragile for many years, after all Irlands greatest export has always been it population. My feeling would be that it would depend on how the English saw the Irsih after split. If the English felt betrayed by the Irish (and vunerable to attack by France) they may arrange a boycott (sorry for the pun - couldn't resist!) of Irish goods, in which case Ireland is heading for trouble as presumably its major trading partners would be France and USA, both of which would be blockaded in the next 15 years in OTL.

The Potatoe famine would still happen and I can't see things being any different just no Brits to help out. The goods that were sent abroad would still be sent abroad as those parts of Ireland that were uneffected by the blight didn't seem to help those that were (although this may be English propaganda).

The Corn Laws would penalise the Irish in the same way that they pubished the Americans, I suspect that if the North remained loyal to the Crown (as in OTL) there may be some illegal trading cross border.

Emmigration would still continue at the same sort of rate as I can't really see the economy improving enough to support more people. Particularly if the English punished the Irish for leaving.
 

dduff442

BELFAST said:
My main interest is not in how Ireland and Scotland gain their independence.
What I am interested in is what effect an independent Ireland and Scotland have on future even like...
Click to expand...

the potato famine,
May depend on the corn laws. Otherwise, none unless Ireland secures its independence.

the Gaelic language,
In spite of the large numbers that still spoke it, it's probably still doomed having ceased to be a language of law, commerce, science etc. more than a century earlier. The last two would be manageable but the first was more difficult. The few remaining Jacobite officers on the Continent were anglo- or francophone. Even fifty years earlier the prospects for Irish would have been much better.

The corn laws
There was some potential for major change here. The historical act of union was a defeat for the urban Protestants and the dissenters almost as much as the Catholics; only fears stoked by 1798 had convinced the first two to go along with it.

Provided scope for negotiation hadn't evaporated, a radically different union might have been agreed. Contrary to some posts on this board, the industries in the East and North of Ireland were fully the match of the English ones before the union obliterated them.

The problem is the republicans would need to be on their last legs before they'd consider a deal with the British monarchy but it's hard to see what bargaining chips they could have left if they were reduced to that state.

Emigration patterns and population size,
Lucky dice rolls altering the terms of the act of union could have had very dramatic effects here, though again that's perhaps very tricky to realise.

American civil war
WWI and WWII
Too hazy to hazard a guess for me at least.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top