The Otsu Debacle: WI Tsesaravich Nicholas of Russia assasinated in Japan in 1891

Relationships between Russia and Japan hardly will be very great but hardly war. Russia hadn't yet much of chances go war against Japan and probably AIII manages keep his head cool enough that not go to war easily. But probably construction of Siberian railroad is fastened.

More intresting question is what then happen when Alexander III dies. He would be succeeded by his oldest surviving son Georgi I but he was very ill so he hardly would reign long and most of business would be run by ministers and officials. He would be succeeded by his younger brother Michael II. Whilst Michael was conservative he was too practical and might know when reforms are needed. He was much smarter than Nicholas II. Russia might be better prepared to Russo-Japanese War and Great War. So it is possible that Russia not go to revolution and monarchy might survive. But it is not sure if Russia becomes Western style democracy.
 
Any ideas for what happens next?

An execution preempted: A lethal Otsu incident, Russian empire centered TL
The convention of Vladivostok seemingly had little effect on the balance of power in Eurasia. The Japanese were forced to cede the Kuriles and fishing rights in the sea of Okhotsk, as well as consent to the temporary demilitarization of Hokaido, but fended off Russian demands for occupation of Tsunshima and Okinawa.

The indemmity was set at 2.5 million pounds sterling, to be paid within a year, and 6 million additional pounds sterling to be paid over the following five years. Given that Japan’s yearly defense budget amounted to no more than 5 million pounds this was to prove a heavy burden indeed (1).
Though the Japanese navy kept its flagship Hashidate it was able to pay the salaries of its naval officers only by selling the Matsushima and the Itsukushima to Brazil the following year.
 

kernals12

Banned
I doubt that. Alliance system, nationalism and other issues ensured that any incident would start the war sooner or latter. Russia would be surely in better place during war anyway.
Europe had avoided full blown conflagration for 99 years somehow. I think Tsar Michael II would be smart enough not to go to war with Germany before Russia's military modernization was completed.
 
Europe had avoided full blown conflagration for 99 years somehow. I think Tsar Michael II would be smart enough not to go to war with Germany before Russia's military modernization was completed.

Fate and history however, will probably have other ideas.
 
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