The Forge of Weyland

Coulsdon Eagle

Monthly Donor
30th May

Atlantic


Like the French, the British too want to get the gold needed for American purchases safe in Canada. Operation Fish involves the battleship HMS Revenge, troop transport HMS Antonia, and troop transport HMS Duchess of Richmond which carry £40 million, £10 million, and £10 million in gold, respectively. The ships departed from Britain bound for Halifax, Nova Scotia. The gold was destined for the vaults of the Bank of Canada in Ottowa for safe keeping.

For those who remember the old Sinatra film "Assault on a Queen" there's probably a good script in there.
 
The US Navy bill is much more like the build planned in 1938 than the 2-ocean navy bill from OTL.
In 1938, quite a bit of the construction was to replace old ships; with the war, they may well put these into reserve instead, at least for a shoret while, but at the moment there is no naval panic. Of course, that could change
 
The US Navy bill is much more like the build planned in 1938 than the 2-ocean navy bill from OTL.
In 1938, quite a bit of the construction was to replace old ships; with the war, they may well put these into reserve instead, at least for a shoret while, but at the moment there is no naval panic. Of course, that could change

The other issues will be:

Who wins the Election in 40?

How do you man the ships/planes without conscription?

How long does it take to build the things. OTL the 2 Ocean Navy pre war was a estimated as a 10 year build program. They could do it faster but if you have started on a Montana at some point its going to be hard not to finish it and limited yard space

The issue is really manpower without a conscript navy there are between 125 and 215k personnel for the Navy and without a war that's not likely to increase rapidly ( 41 it was 380k, 42 1.25 million and on up with 500 - 750k in the cold war as a minimum.

So swapping out Standards for Iowa and Montana or Lexingtons for Essex is fine but its swap out not an addition. Realistically the US will at least keep pace with the IJN under any administration, but post Treaty era that will tend to mean better rather than more. As it stands there is 5:3 advantage in major warships, and even without the RN in the Far East that's decisive. Its not like the US needs an Atlantic fleet at the moment and the IJN is not that impressive.

Same issue applies to the Army and AAC you can authorise more kit but unless you also get an absolute increase in manpower which is a matter of choice in a volunteer force - Congress decides - you are shuffling the available manpower between specialisations.

This is a big issue, Interwar the AAC was dragging the best and the brightest into Air Power its sexy, its astronaut level sexy being in the AAC is he reason smart people join the Army so increasing the size of the AAC but not the size of the army means it becomes more and more of an air force with gate guards than a balanced force.
 
As related to the Lexingtons as I recall the orginal plan was to give them a through modernization once the first few Essexes had entered the fleet. And by through I mean a major overhaul of the machinery and making the aft elevator the size of the forward one on top of what Saratoga received in after being torpedoed for the first time. And there was talk of adding torpedo bulges as well
 
As related to the Lexingtons as I recall the orginal plan was to give them a through modernization once the first few Essexes had entered the fleet. And by through I mean a major overhaul of the machinery and making the aft elevator the size of the forward one on top of what Saratoga received in after being torpedoed for the first time. And there was talk of adding torpedo bulges as well
While they're at it they should remove those absurd 8" gun turrets. They might fit twin 5" DP, the way it was done in OTL.

The four turrets could be put at Wake or Guam or Midway or someplace where they might be useful.
 
This is a big issue, Interwar the AAC was dragging the best and the brightest into Air Power its sexy, its astronaut level sexy being in the AAC is he reason smart people join the Army so increasing the size of the AAC but not the size of the army means it becomes more and more of an air force with gate guards than a balanced force.
But there will be no Victory through Air Power to attract the best and the brightest.
 
Love the addition of the HMS Erebus to the storyline.

The ability of the RN to dominate coastal areas will be fascinating to follow....
 
Now 20 days into the war and the Germans will have totally shot their bolt.

They have several fundamental issues coming home.

The LW will be at or below 50% operational strength with significant aircrew losses and a high tempo of operations falling off dramatically, Physically they are just worn out air and ground crew compounding operational readiness problems. The fall off in sortie rate is going to take them down to the same levels as the French at start of the war, and with fewer aircraft available to begin with the demands will be to get something in the air. So the 250 Bombers is pretty much maximum effort after which many of the aircraft involved will be unflyable for several days.


They have a massive ammunition problem. OTL there were severe limitations on shell stocks and production which will not be quickly solved the Germans needed the pause they had planned for in the original plan to restock. There are two issues, one is steel production the other transportation. The level of expenditure so far will have fired off most of the on hand and resupply depends on Dobbin trotting along at 10km per day from the railhead. The manufacturing problem means they cannot supply all the armies to a full level. So its now only on the only 4 rounds per battery per day with the specific authorisation of the divisional commander. The good news is using 105s as At guns and opening up to people with effective CB fire means you now have many fewer guns and trained artillerymen anyway. The total inventory for 15cm gins is around 1000, with 600 produced in 1940, the Panzer and motorised divsions has 1100 105 between them and most of those allocated to the Pz and Motorised divsions that fought out of the pocket will have been lost. And 4,800 across the whole army.

They have been doing WW1 style infantry assaults on major fortifications with WW2 levels of automatic weapons in the defence. So the assault units will have been taking 25-50% casualties in the infantry units. With the Allied taking far lower levels ( IMHO the Germans would NOT have been able to penetrate the Antwerp defences if manned they showed little no ability to take fortified positions frontally at any point in the war and a marked reluctance to try). Sevastopol which is just about the only example of an assault holds out for 9 months Odessa 2 months and it costs the Axis nearly 100k casualties. And unlike both of those the Germans are not supporting the attacks with Armour – Stugs, because they don’t have any. OFC most of the dead and wounded will be the best leaders and overall troop quality will be declining.

Germany simply does not have replacements available. So if you want to attack its unsupported panzers vs artillery and anti tank defences backed by tanks with air support where increasingly you do not or Fanatical Charges by untrained men against machine guns, artillery backed by tanks you cannot defeat with air support. Unless you can manhandle a 20 foot long 2 ton 10.5 cm artillery piece forward – or persuade Dobbin to do so and not die ( see previous about automatic weapons, artillery etc) you attack. The anti tank defences part is important. If the germans are attacking they will be running into – not French tanks but a French anti tank defence so cunning maneuvers to get side shots actually means exposing yourself to unseen AT weapons that can defeat any armour you have at battlefield ranges, while their supporting MGs slaughter the recovery crews you send forward, if any have managed to get past the deluge of French artillery fire.

And use of the Mobile formations at all means you have to move POL up from finite stocks into an airspace where you cannot guarantee its security from observation.

The OKH is quite capable of continuing attacks in the belief that just one more push is all it takes bit here the senior leadership starts with a high degree of respect for the French and British armies from WW1 and has no reason to suppose they will collapse, which they did with Russia because of 1917 and the OTL defeat of France.

Strategically the Steel problem will come up much earlier. Basically there are 5 organisations in Germany giving priority orders to the steel industry – OKH, OKL, OKM, Todt Organisation and the 4 Year Plan. Spreading production demand across Armaments in general ( rifles guns etc) Ammunition ( shells bombs ammo), Shipbuilding, Tanks, Vehicles ( so forex OKH may downplay trucks in favour of tanks but the LW still wants trucks to move its bombs from factory to airfield). Todt Organisation has responsibility for production of armaments in the future and will be wanting rebar for new factories ( and trains and rails to go to the new factories) the 4 year plan is tasked with amongst other things establishing Autarky needs steel for tractors and synthetic oil plants. Which are now an even greater priority as Germany does not actually have any money with which to buy Romanian oil.

Bomber command's orders as at April 13 1940 gave the priorities as German Troop Concentrations, Rail Yards and Oil plants in the Ruhr. Portals personal wrinkle on this was to emphasise transportation over industrial targets ( something like 80% of sorties in 1940 were against transportation targets) But this time they have nice static German forces they can bomb. So he The Biggest Baddest Bomber Baron will be prefectly happy to carpet bomb the LOC of the german armies.
The Germans still have the initiative at the moment though - they're deciding where to attack and the Allies are responding. See Antwerp.
And from the Allied point of view, they've lost Poland and Denmark, lost half of Norway, been humbugged by what looked to be a masterly German deception operation (those captured documents indicating the Germans were going to attack somewhere they didn't; the Allies don't know at this point that the Germans changed plans), had a very bad scare at Sedan, seen an Allied head of state have a mental breakdown, and lost Antwerp. Plus, as we keep being reminded, at this point there's still the question of the imagined German tank reserves.
And the Allies have suffered some attrition of men and material too.
Now if the Allies hold their nerve, and Churchill and Reynaud start to put in halfway competent counter-attacks somewhere (and not wild plans involving the Friesian Islands) then the Germans are stuffed, but the Allies still need to hold their nerve and contest and then take the initiative to get to that point.

(And something is going relatively right for Hitler, down in the south - Italy is neutral, so as long as Hitler has gold and dollars spare, the Italians will for now no doubt sell him things at inflated prices... Although this really is by way of a sliver-thin silver lining to some rather ominous economic thunderclouds looming on Germany's financial horizon.)

Edit:
On the 'plus' side for the Allies, from their perspectives, holding a lot of important bits of Holland and Belgium is good, and the containment and throwing back of the German breakthrough of Sedan (with much destruction of German tanks) must have been highly satisfying.
 
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Driftless

Donor
In the long term scorekeeping of resources in this universe:
  • Who got the Polish & Danish gold?
  • The Germans have the Czech and Austrian wealth (of several forms), as they did OTL (Cash and factories)
  • I'm assuming the Dutch and Belgian gold has been/is being shifted to safety
  • The Norwegian gold stayed one step ahead of the Germans in OTL and got shipped to Britain, so I'm guessing the same here
  • We've heard about the French and British gold being shipped to North America.
  • The Louvre and the Rijkmuseum and many of their counterparts haven't been pillaged yet
  • The Germans don't have possession of the Belgian and French coal and steel regions - yet. At least not where they're usable. (I believe Gannt has pointed out the shortages of Steel (and other key metals)
  • Both sides are losing metal planes and metal vehicles at a good clip, but most of the recyclable metals are residing in Allied-controlled territory - for the present. Maybe not enough to really matter - now, but shortages are shortages.
  • With the way things are going, what will Franco and Salazar do about their countries mineral shipments to the warring nations? (Tungsten ore and others)
  • How do these resource changes impact what Germany sells to Italy? "Sorry, Benny, things are tough all over, ya know....."
What else am I missing for this list of resources that are currently playing out differently - to this point?

Say the Germans hit on all cylinders from here on out and run the British and French off the continent. Some of the items listed above become moot, some are altered for the duration
 
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yeah the last update seems to hint at maybe getting kicked out belgium before the germans runs out of steam and the entente counter attacks in 41 ?
 
31st May 1940
31st May

Belgium


After two days, the situation around Antwerp seemed to have regained some stability. By the afternoon, the last of the Allied troops had been withdrawn from their precarious position, and the new defence lines were working. There had been worry that the retreat would have had to beat off an attack from 2nd and 9th Panzer divisions, but this had failed to occur (disappointing some of the officers of 1st Armoured who had hopes of doing some serious damage to the enemy tanks), and in fact the German advance had not been as swift as expected. It seemed from reports that apart from the panzer units, the Germans were basically slogging forward on foot.

While the staff were still sorting out the situation of the withdrawn units, an initial analysis of the losses had been prepared. The biggest lost was around four Belgian divisions. The two that had been in Antwerp itself had been captured, as had quite a few of the men manning the fortifications around the city. However around 10,000 of the men of these units had managed to escape, on foot on any transport they could get hold of, determined to carry on fighting. While they had lost nearly all of their equipment, they could be re-equipped.

The French divisions had been fighting for some days before Leoplod's action, and also lost men in the retreat. Rearguard units had been set up to allow the main body to get clear, and this had worked. The main losses were to the rear echelon, which had been surprised by the airborne attack, and to the heavy equipment such as guns which they had been forced to abandon after firing off the supply of shells. It would take a little time to rebuild these divisions, but in general the morale was good, they felt they had managed to get back to help defend France again despite the actions of the Belgian King.

The British units had suffered the least disruption; the units in front were armoured and motorised, and this had allowed them to break contact with all except reconnaissance units as they withdrew. 1st Armoured had suffered considerable tank losses - in the retreat it had proved impossible to recover many of the damaged or broken down vehicles, despite the recovery units working non-stop. However it seemed that the panzers were wary of pushing too close to them after their recent encounters, and the division was on the whole combat ready and behind the new lines as the mobile reserve. New tanks would be sent out from England over the next few days.


Despite having managed a notable breakthrough, the German forces had their own problems. While they had moved with alacrity once they hear of Leopold's actions, they hadn't been expecting it and it would take some days to reorganise the situation. Still they had moved up close to the new Allied defence lines, while they worked out what units were manning them.. There was concern about how to handle a thrust north to split their salient in two, and getting up artillery and ammunition, in particular guns that could stop the French and British tanks, was the priority.

One prize which had pleased the Panzer commanders was that they had recovered a number of the British tanks (in varying states of damage) as the British had withdrawn. While they had examples of French tanks from the earlier fighting in the Ardennes, these were the first examples of the British vehicles, and a request was put in for priority transport to send these back to Germany for a full evaluation. Of course, the officers had used the available time to crawl all over the tanks, and there was concern over how tough the vehicles were. While the Sabre tank was seen as similar to the French S-35, the heavier Cutlass was a shock - one had obviously taken over 20 hits from 37mm guns without receiving more than superficial damage.

South Africa

HMS Cumberland joined the escort at Capetown for military convoy US3 taking Australian troops to England. This convoy will deliver the first men of what is hoped eventually to be the1st Australian Corps to Britain. It had originally been intended to move the men directly to France, to complete their training and supply the rest of their equipment, but due to the fighting in France it was considered safer to finish equipping them in Britain first.

France

No. 829 Squadron FAA took their newly issued Fairey Albacore aircraft into action for the first time with attacks on German E-boats off Zeebrugge in Belgium. The E-boats had been patrolling aggressively, and had already torpedoed an RN destroyer, which had barely managed to get home. The attack sunk one E-boat and damaged two others. While the E-boats were not seen as a major naval threat, their presence has made the use of smaller ships along the Belgian coast more risky, and this attack is intended to relieve this situation. Meanwhile US-built DB-7 medium bombers of the French Air Force saw combat for the first time against German troops around Namur. While Allied losses in the air have been heavy, especially among some of the bomber formations tasked with supporting the Army, new production and the imports from the USA are starting to ease the immediate problem.

America

The American Ambassador to Argentina, Norman Armour and the American Minister in Uruguay, Edwin Wilson met in Montevideo, Uruguay to discuss what they consider to be the deteriorating political situation in Uruguay. They jointly request Secretary of State Cordell Hull to ask President Roosevelt to sent 40 to 50 warships to the eastern coast of South America as a show of force. The purpose of this is to prevent the possibility of Uruguay from forming a partnership of some sort with the German regime; while Germany has faced some reversals in Europe, their propaganda has minimised this for South American consumption, and the worry is more overt support that will cause the USA problems.. Later in the day, Hull would inform them that heavy cruiser USS Quincy was to be despatched for Rio de Janeiro, Brazil as per their request, and that she would visit Montevideo on the journey.

The US Marine Corps dispatched Captain Samuel G. Taxis to survey Midway Atoll along with a small reconnaissance party, the intention being to begin the planning for constructing a US Marine Corps presence there. The obvious reduction of French and British naval forces in the Pacific area have raised the level of concern in Washington as to the vulnerability of some of its bases there, and plans are being drawn up to increase the level of defences. The pre-war treaties are now being seen as effectively obsolete in view of Japanese actions and the world situation, although there is still a need to seem to be following them.
 
31st May



France


No. 829 Squadron FAA took their newly issued Fairey Albacore aircraft into action for the first time with attacks on German E-boats off Zeebrugge in Belgium.
Albacores are not really equipped for small level anti-shipping roles. Their main role was against enemy line of battle assets. Their main attack weapon is the torpedo a rather overkill weapon for E-Boats and due to the shallow draft of E-boats vs the other KM ships rather a doubtful choice,
 
Albacores are not really equipped for small level anti-shipping roles. Their main role was against enemy line of battle assets. Their main attack weapon is the torpedo a rather overkill weapon for E-Boats and due to the shallow draft of E-boats vs the other KM ships rather a doubtful choice,
OTL :D
 
Using a depth charge at a shallow setting of say 25ft and drop it in the path of an e-boat doing 40knts or there abouts can result in catastrophic damage, if not serious brown trousers for the crew!!
 
Albacores are not really equipped for small level anti-shipping roles. Their main role was against enemy line of battle assets. Their main attack weapon is the torpedo a rather overkill weapon for E-Boats and due to the shallow draft of E-boats vs the other KM ships rather a doubtful choice,
From Wiki
The Albacore was designed for diving at speeds up to 215 knots (400 km/h) IAS with flaps either up or down, and it was certainly steady in a dive, recovery being easy and smooth...
— Brown[1]
and the maximum under wing bomb load was four 500 lb (230 kg) bombs.[1][2]
 
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