Miliband/Harman vs May/Lidingdton vs Farage/Tice vs Cable/Brinton vs Bartley/MacKay vs Allen/Shuker vs Batten/Hookem, the Battle of Charisma.
 
Closer Look, 2017 East Midlands Parliament Election
The East Midlands had been ruled by Premier Patrick McLoughlin since 2009. First Minister Michael Ellis had risen to his position in 2012, after then First Minister Edward Garnier was appointed to the Supreme Court. Ellis was a known royalist who was most known nationally for secretly planting a Windsor red apple tree on the East Midlands Parliament's grounds during the Queens Diamond Jubilee. Ellis had overseen the end of the grand-coalition in 2014, entering into a coalition with UKIP for the 2014-2017 Parliament. Ellis was popular amongst East Midlands voters, and by cannibalising UKIP, Ellis picked up 14 seats. With UKIP a mess, he went into his third term alongside the Lib Dems

East Midlands Labour was led by Toby Perkins, who had served as Business Minister during the Garnier/Leslie grand coalition. A former-businessman, Perkins came from the centrist wing of the Labour Party and was criticised by some activists for his closeness to the disastrous coalition. Despite this, Labour too gained from the collapse of UKIP and the BNP, netting a seven-point swing.

The Lib Dems were led by arch-Europhile Bill Newton Dunn, an open and proud European Federalist, Dunn based his campaign around the benefits the EU brought to the East Midlands through economic investment and trade. Unfortunately for Dunn, in the overwhelmingly Eurosceptic East Midlands, his message fell flat, losing his party a seat in the East Midlands Parliament.

As for the minor parties UKIP, under Deputy First Minister Roger Helmer, was cannibalised by the larger parties, whilst the Greens held steady.
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"Young people - the future - are being encouraged to stay here in the East Midlands to enjoy the good jobs and houses our region offers. More than 800 local business have signed up to our #iwill campaign, to encourage young people to come and work in the East Midlands. I could go on. But 2017 has been and continues to be, a great year for the East Midlands. That is, in no small part, down to the work of everyone here. We have reduced the regional debt whilst protecting our public services. We have secured diverse and significant new investment for our region. We can all continue delivering for a region we cherish, and I hope that you will be heartened by the snapshot of all the progress we have heard today. There are always challenges ahead; but, as ever, the passion of every one of you gives me great confidence that our challenges will be overcome. Protecting and championing our historic region is a noble calling - and you all play a vital role. Thank you for all your work, for having me here, and for ensuring our region is secured." - Michael Ellis' Speech to the East Midland's Conservative Convention (2017)
 
Out of all the candidates I would back the conservatives any day as from where I come from I think republicanism would be heavily frowned upon
 
Closer Look, President Miliband's Christmas Card (2018)
Greeting citizens of the Commonwealth of Britain.

Merry Christmas and happy holidays, I hope we're all settling in to watch the Queen's President's speech this afternoon. Wishing you all the best, thank you for following along this strange, mildly treasonous TL this year.
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President Ed Miliband's Christmas card divided opinion in the winter of 2018. Whilst Presidential Christmas cards tended to be traditional sombre affairs, usually a picture of the President and First Family, Miliband instead opted for a more irreverent tone, referencing the time he appeared on the "Last Leg" comedy show, where the hosts decided to increase his "cool factor" by making him ride a motorbike and wear a leather jacket - most unpresidential.

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2019 Presidental Debate, Part 2, Home Affairs, Terrorism and Security
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The debate took place close to the two year anniversary of the Manchester Arena attack

The first section of the debate was on Terrorism and Home Affairs. Allen was called to speak first.

“Well, you look at the President's foreign policy positions. Failing to stand up to a hard-right -Russian government that thinks it can poison people on British soil. Attlee and Bevin helped found NATO – Ed Miliband and those around him can't stop the most amateur of terrorist attacks. And Senator May's plans do nothing to address the real challenge of fighting terrorism. Instead, her platform contains worrying measures that are unnecessary and attack individual freedoms. Senator May poses a serious threat to the civil liberties of innocent people. I am an internationalist. This is at the heart of who I am, it flows through everything we do. I believe in tearing down walls, not building them. I believe in working together through multilateral organisations, not standing alone. To tackle terrorism, we need to ensure that the Commonwealth is at the table, achieving consensus internationally. “I am determined to combat terrorism and support action that will keep Britain safe.”

Allen struggled to give a unique pitch considering her outsider status, there was very little in terms of policy offer different from Vince Cable or Ed Miliband, promising to track down on terror whilst protecting civil liberties, considering Allen was polling last she needed something more to keep her campaign relevant.

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Despite being an outsider, Allen gave a fairly bog-standard response

Ed Miliband was next in line to speak.

“The thoughts of everyone are with the families and loved ones of the innocent people who lost their lives to terrorism. The people want to put victims first and put community safety first. We can't avoid asking tough questions in general about Senator May's plan to cut more than 10,000 police officers. This would bring chaos to our police system and lead to more assaults on officers. Senator May wants to privatise and break up our probation services, which is looking after 300,000 people across our country. We can't do security on the cheap. That is exactly what Senator May's plan aims to do. Prime Minister Thornberry and I will continue to invest in our police and prisons, Senator May wants to privatise them, it's really as simple as that.”

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Miliband refused to be distracted by the minor candidates, focusing his energy on May

Miliband new terrorism and security was a major achillies heel for his campaign, and a major boon to May’s. So he switched the narrative, talking about May’s austerity spending plans and their impact on national security.

Gerard Batten interjected

“Mr President, you say you want to put victims of terrorism first, yet you refused to support my bill in the Senate which called for a terrorism memorial day. We are coming up to the anniversary of the Manchester Arena attack and the murder of Lee Rigby, we must have a day to honour them. Over many years we have experienced a growing toll of victims of senseless acts of terrorism from different perpetrators. It would be fitting to remember all the victims on the same day. The day should be used to focus our minds on the practical measures that need to be taken to combat terrorism. Remembering these people is of no use unless there is a resolve to tackle the causes of terrorism. I am the only person on this stage brave enough to say the cause of terrorism is ideology, whether it's the Islamist ideology of ISIS, or the socialist ideology of the IRA. Unless politicians start calling out these murderous ideologies for what they are, terrorism will never stop.”

Again, Batten surprised many by his debate performance, his call for a terrorism memorial day was difficult to argue with and masked many of his more extreme statements, being the most radical person on the stage Batten was able to say pretty much whatever he wanted, and let the press coverage roll in.

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In many ways Batten was outshining Farage

At this point May decided to step in.

“Well of course my thoughts and prayers are with the victims of terrorism, but I will act Senator Batten. We all saw the bravery of our emergency services and the incredible resilience of the British people. The overriding job of the President is to protect us. That's why my plan actually calls to recruit 30,000 new police officers, that's why my plan will increase counter-terrorism funding by a third. Within a week of taking office, I will toughen up sentencing for violent criminals. Under President Miliband, we are seeing criminals being released automatically half-way through their sentence. I will change that law. What I can tell you is, I will always back the police and the security services with the resources and the powers they need to keep us safe.”

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May was fighting on her home turf when it came to terrorism

May was clearly in her comfort zone when talking about security and she gave a strong speech, directly addressing the points raised by Miliband, discussing a detailed plan to combat holes in Britain's security apparatus.

Bartley spoke next.

“Senator May, the way to prevent and detect terrorist offences is with a community working alongside the police in a cooperative way. Your plan will alienate minority communities and push them away from the police. We do need intelligence-led, stronger policing in the community. I've been in the cabinet, I know police cuts were real, if you cut police, then they don't have time to work out in the community. When it comes to prisoners who are vulnerable we need to have proper rehabilitation for them in President. It's no good leaving people to fester for long in an overcrowded prison system, we need real education and real rehabilitation. Those are the things we need to be funding more of, as well as real policing in the community that doesn't alienate people.”

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Bartley didn't have much impact on this section of the debate

Bartley’s interjection appeals to Green voters well by talking about community policing and relations. But he failed to break the image of the Greens as fluffy but well-meaning hippies, he had tried to challenge May and failed.

It was now Vince Cable’s turn to speak.

“No terrorist should be released without being properly assessed whether they still pose a risk to the public. Clearly, tough questions need to be asked and we need to learn lessons. We shouldn't use terrorist atrocities as a pretence for draconian changes in the law. Prevention and challenge can degenerate into surveillance or at the very least the fear of surveillance. If schools are required to report on ‘extreme’ attitudes by pupils like Senator May's plan would require the obvious consequence is suspicion and students will be less willing to debate ideas. I am told that this is already happening with fear among children that they may be put ‘on a list’. There are similar fears of GP’s having to break patient confidentiality. Anything which encourages secretive behaviour is more likely to help terrorism than hinder it. When people like Senator May say they want to expand their own power in the name of public safety, that makes me very worried indeed.”

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Cable went after May but his blows didn't land

Cable gave a principled, liberal speech, moving the question away from security to one of freedom and surveillance. Cables insinuation that extremism in young people could be “debated” away was widely criticised in the press and his attack on May failed to stick.

Farage was the last called for this segment.

“We all express our condolences, but nobody apologises. The liberal elite has given us a ridiculous sentencing system. I don't care whether terrorists are jailed for six years or twelve years. If you've committed mass murder, you're not an ordinary criminal, you have the virus of jihadism. These people should never ever be let out of prison unless we're absolutely convinced they do not have the jihadi virus. But of course, political correctness stops us from doing this. The President has been very very weak on sentencing over the last five years, just as the Conservatives have been.”

Farage too struggled on an issue that he should’ve been very comfortable with, he railed against the liberal elite and political correctness but failed to name a concrete policy of his own that would stop terrorist atrocities.

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Farage struggled to articulate what his new Brexit Alliance stood for

"To what extent did national security play a role in the 2019 Presidental Election? (30 Marks)" - A Level Politics Exam (2019)
 
Are there any meaningful policy differences between Batten and Farage, or is the difference more based on personality & partisanship?
 
Are there any meaningful policy differences between Batten and Farage, or is the difference more based on personality & partisanship?
Batten's more socially conservative, supporting banning the hijab, freezing the construction of mosques, rolling back gay marriage ect. But Batten is also more left-wing economically, supporting higher corporation tax and stronger welfare.

Farage is more libertarian in economics, supporting a flat income tax and welfare cuts. Farage is also less obsessed with Islam and doesn't want to roll back LGBT rights.

Batten's basically old-school BNP, similar to the National Front in France, whilst Farage is more Thatcherite Libertarian with some populism thrown in.
 
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Closer Look, 2017 West Midlands Parliamentary Election
The West Midlands had been run by Premier Caroline Speldman since 2009 and First Minister Sajid Javid since 2011. Javid had led a coalition of Conservatives and UKIP that almost collapsed after the 2014 West Midlands UKIP split, but managed to hold on. Javid proved a popular First Minister and a rising star of the Conservative Party, the West Midlands went through a post-recession economic boon under his leadership, this coupled with the collapse of UKIP netted the Tories an extra 14 seats. After the election, he reformed his Conservative/UKIP coalition alongside AIE

Labour was led by Khalid Mahmood, a first-generation immigrant and former engineer. Mahmood came from the Brownite wing of the party and emphasised his background as a working-class immigrant. Mahmood based his campaign around expanding manufacturing jobs in the West Midlands, he also benefitted from the collapse of UKIP, netting a 6 point swing.

The Liberal Democrats were led by former farmer Phil Bennion, who based his campaign around appealing to rural areas of the West Midlands and closing the gap between Birmingham and the rest of the region. Unfortunately for Bennion, the areas he was trying to target were trending away from the Lib Dems. Instead, he should have focused on suburban regions like Solihul, instead, he lost his party three seats.

As for the minor parties, West Midlands UKIP had split in late 2014, after UKIP central office removed Mike Nattrass as the leader of West Midlands UKIP, after multiple clashes with national leadership. In protest Nattrass and his loyalist formed a new party "An Independence from Europe", promising a party that was eurosceptic, yet centre-left on economic issues. The split led UKIP into losing 19 seats, however, AIE managed to break the 4% threshold and maintain it's presence in Parliament

Meanwhile, the Greens, led by former professional MMA fighter Rosi Sexton held steady, seeing a small 1% swing against the party.
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"A regional leader of Ukip has resigned from the party and accused Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall of running a "totalitarian" organisation. Mike Nattrass, UKIP leader in the West Midlands, gave up his membership after the party ordered him to resign as the UKIP group's leader. Nattrass is now the third West Midlands legislator to resign since the party won 25 earlier this year. Speaking on Channel Four News, Nattrass said Farage is a good frontman but a bad leader. "The process has been gerrymandered and fixed, so that only people who support Nigel Farage are being put in positions of leadership," he said. "Ukip is now a totalitarian party. Nigel Farage only wants people in the party who agree with him. I'm regarded as a troublemaker. The party has done very well. We all do a lot of work but it now has a totalitarian regime because the leader only wants people elected who are his cronies." Nattrass could now form his own party in the hope of retaining his seat." - Nigel Farage runs Ukip as 'totalitarian' operation, says party's ex-West Midlands leader, Rowena Mason, The Guardian (2014)
 
2019 Presidential Debate, Part 3, Foreign Affairs and Europe
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Miliband has been criticised for his rocky relationship with US President Trump

The next segment was on the issue of Foreign Affairs, kicked off by a question around Donald Trump. President Miliband was chosen to speak first.

“As President, I have stood up for our values abroad. I have stood up to Donald Trump and Russia, I vetoed a Trump state visit when Senator May wanted to roll out the red carpet. Look at the Muslim bad Trump brought in, look at the caging of migrant children, look at the way he threatens war. He wants to conspire with Theresa May and Nigel Farage in order to get fat cat friends to access our NHS. Look at the state of America under Donald Trump, that could happen here. The only way to stop Britain from becoming a new version of Donald Trump's USA is to ensure that Theresa May does not become President.”

Trump was wildly unpopular in Britain, Miliband knew that by distancing himself from Trump as much as possible he could boost his campaign. If he could highlight May and Farage’s links to Trump, even better

Heidi Allen interjected.

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Allen hoped to appeal to pro-globalisation voters

“I find it extraordinary Mr President that you didn't mention Europe once in your speech. I am a European and proud of it – we have spent far too long apologising for being pro-European in this country. Because you cannot be pro-Britain and put our national interest first without seeking to put Britain at the heart of Europe. You see, to be a pro-European is to hold a set of internationalist values that the President should be the champion and defender of. On the other hand Theresa May said: “if you believe you’re a citizen of the world, you’re a citizen of nowhere”. What utter rubbish. Be in no doubt: this is the battle of our time and it goes far beyond Britain’s borders. I will revive our reputation on the world stage and get on with helping to improve the lives of those across the world. The President has the duty to defend the values of human rights, democracy, and equality. And as your President, I can promise you that I will stand up for a global Britain.”


A core part of United for Change’s policy platform was it’s Europhillia. Allen made a loud and proud pro-European pitch, voicing her support for internationalism, she hit out at May’s populism and Miliband’s lack of action on Europe.

Vince Cable was next to speak.

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Cable focused his speech on attacking May and Farage

“There are three people in the special relationship; Theresa May, Nigel Farage and Donald Trump. We have a hugely important relationship with the US, but make no mistake the current President is not someone who shares our values. This is someone who has boasted about assaulting women, whose policies are discriminatory and is separating parents from their children. We should be very careful with that relationship. It was our Liberal Democrat Foreign Secretary Tom Brake who actually blocked the state visit. It's shocking that's the way Theresa May wants to develop that relationship with Donald Trump.”


Cable returned the conversation back on to Donald Trump. But like junior coalition partners around the world he had to fight to take credit for accomplishments such as blocking the state visit. He made a similar speech to Miliband but without any of the passion or prestige.

Bartley chose this moment to speak up.

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Bartley came from the moderate pro-NATO wing of the Greens

“Trump's rise concerns me hugely, it's not just his rhetoric, it's not just the use of populism, the use of hatred, it's also his policies. You look at what actually happens to children in his detention centres. I almost cannot cope with the thought. When it comes to our relationship with America I just hope that after next year, when Donald Trump is gone, we can fix that and build something new. We can use the logistical might of NATO to provide aid and food to desperate war zones. We can use £200 billion put behind Trident renewal, to stop climate change. Our foreign policy can do so much more but we need to start thinking outside the box.”


Whilst not a bad speech Bartley’s statement was yet another criticism of Donald Trump, using talking points Miliband and Cable had already said. Like Cable, Bartley struggled to differentiate himself after a decade of coalition.

Theresa May was then called to speak.

“This is an amazing country. We should be proud of the values that we stand for and the force for good that we are in the world. The US is an important ally of ours and will always remain that case. For security, we are kept safe, because of the intelligence that our American allies share with us and millions of jobs in this country that are supported by US investment. They are the single largest investor in our nation. So it's important that the President of this country is able to build alliances with world leaders around the globe. Like the President of the United States, and indeed the relationships that we've built in Europe. These relationships will not only keep us safe but further our British interests.”

Theresa May deftly managed to pivot the conversation away from Trump’s personality and more towards security and the economy, terrain she was more comfortable on. She made a competent speech outlining the need to work with the United States in order to bring security to the Commonwealth.

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May was outperforming expectations so far

Farage was called next.

“We're talking about defence and we're talking about security. The special relationship is more important now than ever because NATO itself is now threatened by an EU that wants to do defence on its own. You've only got to listen to what President Juppe has said over the course of the last few weeks and what President Timmermans has been saying. The European Defence Union is being set up to replace NATO. President Miliband needs to make a big decision in the next few days, are we staying with the European Union or are we staying with NATO and America? And I hope we chose the latter.”

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Farage's tagent around the European Defence Union didn't land with voters


Most focus groups showed respondents confused at Farage’s statement more than anything. Few knew what the European Defence Union was, and even fewer cared, whilst his populist rival Batten was making grand statements, Farage was getting into the weeds of EU policy, and leaving the voters behind.

Batten spoke last.

“As Senicus said, a nation cannot survive treason from within and treason it is. President Miliband and Senator May have given our country over to the European Union. They planned to betray Britain from the start. They have betrayed it by delaying and impeding a referendum on our membership of the EU. Many of the 65 million people in Britain now believe that their vote is pointless. Britain is still nominally a democracy and the vote is the only weapon the people have. Those millions of people can vote for Brexit, and they can make a start by electing me, President. I stand on the policy of unilateral and unconditional withdrawal from the European Union, no compromises and no surrender. I will accept no agreement on any other terms. I stand for a complete and total exit from the European Union. The struggle to set Britain free from the European Union continues, I will lead that struggle, vote Batten, vote Brexit.”

Whilst Batten’s speech was crass, it appealed to his voters. He made an unambiguous, uncompromising statement of intent, keeping his speech short and simple. Farage had hoped the debate would kill Batten, instead, it appeared to make him stronger.

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Like Griffin before him, merely appearing on stage was a win for Batten

“Critically assess the impact of Donald Trump on British Politics (30 Marks)” - A Level Politics Exam
 
Closer Look, English Regional Flags
If that is the West Midlands Flag, what do the other flags look like?
Your wish is my command.

(Please note I am not a Vexillologist, nor am I particularly good with photoshop, thus all these flags already exist, are glorified county flags, or stolen from the internet. If anyone wants to have a crack at making or suggesting regional flags I'd love to see them)

South East England
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London
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North West England

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Anglia
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West Midlands
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South West England
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Yorkshire
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East Midlands
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North East England
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I appreciate the work you've done, but as a man from Somerset, the SW England flag is HORRENDOUS. The combination of colours...wow.

Love the others, though.
 
Hello friends, I'm going to be taking a bit of a break over the next couple of weeks as I have a fair backlog of work to get through, so updates might be a bit sparse for the next few weeks. Thanks again for watching this TL - Viva Commonwealth!
 
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