"The Commonwealth of Britain" - Republican UK Wikibox TL
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Closer Look, 2011 North East Senate Election
The North East was one of the few regions of the Commonwealth to have a Labour Premier since the 2009 "blue wave". Premier Nick Brown had overseen a coalition of Labour and Liberal Democrat legislators, propped up by votes from the Greens.
Labour's leader in the Senate was former charity worker Helen Goodman, broadly from the middle of the party she was considered an ally of Premier Brown. Goodman was known for her campaigns against poverty through campaigning against the closure of DWP offices in Bishop Auckland and living on £18 a week to highlight the plight of people faced with benefit cuts. Goodman had little impact on the result, Labour picking up an extra 2% in line with the national swing
UKIP was led by Philip Broughton, a former professional wrestler. from the "RedKip" faction, Broughton seized on issues like the closure of Hartlepool hospital, railing against privatisation and PFI. Broughton was popular locally and UKIP was surging in the North East, allowing UKIP to pick up another Senator, becoming the region's official opposition.
The Conservatives were led by Guy Opperman, a self described "continuity one-nation Conservative", critical of low wages and uncontrolled capitalism, he ran on a platform of expanding apprenticeships and physically walked from one end of the region to the other during the campaign. Unfortunately for the North East Tories they were eclipsed by UKIP and failed to pick up any seats, but they did increase their vote share compared to 2008, one of the only regions to do so.
As for minor parties, the Lib Dems and Greens were both stifled by propping up the Labour Government and the BNP continued to decline due to internal infighting.
After the results of the election the Greens were invited into the North East coalition, forming another traffic light coalition in the North of England.
"A candidate in the local Senate elections has laughed off an “out of context” online video which shows him making fun of "commoners". Phillip Broughton said that the video is being used to try to discredit him because he is standing for UKIP. The video, posted by the Guido Fawkes political blog on YouTube, features Mr Broughton in character as ‘The One and Only Phillip Alexander’. He tells viewers he is "cleverer", "better looking" and "more charismatic" than them, boasts about his clothes and income. Mr Broughton, who is UKIP leader in the North East Senate said of the publicity: “It is out of context. What they have done is edit down lots of videos that have already been taken down from the internet, when I am in character, to misrepresent me. Most people will be able to see how it was intended, but the context has been taken away from it.” Mr Broughton had been a Conservative Member of the NE Parliament for County Durham but switched allegiances to UKIP in 2008." - Wrestling UKIP Leader dismisses 'out of context' use of online video, Mike Brown, Teesside Live (2011)
Labour's leader in the Senate was former charity worker Helen Goodman, broadly from the middle of the party she was considered an ally of Premier Brown. Goodman was known for her campaigns against poverty through campaigning against the closure of DWP offices in Bishop Auckland and living on £18 a week to highlight the plight of people faced with benefit cuts. Goodman had little impact on the result, Labour picking up an extra 2% in line with the national swing
UKIP was led by Philip Broughton, a former professional wrestler. from the "RedKip" faction, Broughton seized on issues like the closure of Hartlepool hospital, railing against privatisation and PFI. Broughton was popular locally and UKIP was surging in the North East, allowing UKIP to pick up another Senator, becoming the region's official opposition.
The Conservatives were led by Guy Opperman, a self described "continuity one-nation Conservative", critical of low wages and uncontrolled capitalism, he ran on a platform of expanding apprenticeships and physically walked from one end of the region to the other during the campaign. Unfortunately for the North East Tories they were eclipsed by UKIP and failed to pick up any seats, but they did increase their vote share compared to 2008, one of the only regions to do so.
As for minor parties, the Lib Dems and Greens were both stifled by propping up the Labour Government and the BNP continued to decline due to internal infighting.
After the results of the election the Greens were invited into the North East coalition, forming another traffic light coalition in the North of England.
"A candidate in the local Senate elections has laughed off an “out of context” online video which shows him making fun of "commoners". Phillip Broughton said that the video is being used to try to discredit him because he is standing for UKIP. The video, posted by the Guido Fawkes political blog on YouTube, features Mr Broughton in character as ‘The One and Only Phillip Alexander’. He tells viewers he is "cleverer", "better looking" and "more charismatic" than them, boasts about his clothes and income. Mr Broughton, who is UKIP leader in the North East Senate said of the publicity: “It is out of context. What they have done is edit down lots of videos that have already been taken down from the internet, when I am in character, to misrepresent me. Most people will be able to see how it was intended, but the context has been taken away from it.” Mr Broughton had been a Conservative Member of the NE Parliament for County Durham but switched allegiances to UKIP in 2008." - Wrestling UKIP Leader dismisses 'out of context' use of online video, Mike Brown, Teesside Live (2011)
2013, Part 1, Fast and Furious
The G8 was to be hosted at a 5 star resort near Bristol
“The Commonwealth will host the first G8 dementia summit. President Howard aims to lead coordinated global action against one of the greatest pressures around the world. The government is inviting health ministers from G8 countries to discuss how they can coordinate efforts. This includes looking for effective therapies and responses to slow dementia’s impact. The summit will aim to identify and agree a new international approach to dementia research. They will draw on the expertise and experience of the OECD, World Health Organisation and industry. President Howard said the initiative was part of his "long term global strategy for older people and their carers"” - UK to host first G8 dementia summit, Alzheimer's Disease International (2013)
President Howard with Japanese Officials
2013 began with the announcement that Britain, and by extension President Michael Howard had assumed Presidency of the G8, this was seen as a great opportunity for the Balls Government who hoped towards a more pro-European and internationalist foreign policy, in conflict with President Howard’s pro-American and isolationist foreign policy stances. The presidency meant Howard would host the annual leaders' summit and choose the global priorities to be discussed. The summit would be held at Royal Crescent Hotel outside Bristol. The G8 was made up of the world's richest countries - France, the US, Russia, Japan, Germany, Italy, Canada and the Commonwealth. As President of the host nation, Howard said he wanted to focus on combating trade protectionism and cracking down on tax havens. These topics were to be discussed in ministerial meetings ahead of the summit along with urgent issues like the crisis in Syria. Whilst G8 summits were renowned for fine communiques, the group suffered from a credibility problem. Some of the world's largest economies like China, India and Brazil were not members. Organisers prayed the summit would be trouble free. The last time the Commonwealth was the host was in 2005, in Newport, more than 300,000 people marched against world poverty.
President Howard was frustrated with the lack of power he had under a Labour Government, the G8 meeting was a chance to assert himself. Foreign affairs was one of the few policy areas where he had the authority to act without Ball’s consent, especially in official schmoozing events like the G8. The list of priorities had been a compromise between President Howard and Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, with Cooper favouring tax evasion and Howard favouring further trade liberalisation.
“Micheal Howard has promised to create a "partnership for growth and reform" as he visits China on a trade mission. The President also pledged to put his "full political weight" behind a proposed EU-China trade agreement. Mr Howard urged business people at a lunch in Shanghai's business centre to invest in the UK. He said the UK and China had "deep complementary economies". "If you are investing in Britain, invest more," he said. "If you are thinking of investing in Britain, come and find us. You will get a warm welcome." He won applause as he outlined plans for same-day visas for business visits to the Commonwealth. On Monday, Premier Zhang Gaoli said the pair had agreed in their talks to "push for breakthroughs" on nuclear power and high-speed rail. The leaders read out statements to reporters after their talks in Beijing's Great Hall of the People, but did not take questions. Mr Gaoli said the talks had been "productive", adding that the Commonwealth and China had become "indispensable partners".” - Micheal Howard promises China 'growth partnership', BBC News (2013)
President Howard had spent little time in the Commonwealth since the Conservative's defeat in 2011, instead choosing to lead trade missions around the world
The other main news in the Commonwealth was the trial of former Deputy Prime Minister Chris Huhne. Huhne announced he was resigning as an MP after he admitted perverting the course of justice. The ex-Lib Dem Leader changed his plea on the first day of his trial at Southwark Crown Court after failing to have the case dismissed. His former wife, Vicky Pryce, pleaded not guilty to the same offence. The judge ruled that text messages from Huhne's son urging him to admit he was the driver could be used in evidence. Justice Sweeney revealed Huhne's legal team had before made two applications to get the case dismissed or suspended. These were not granted, allowing the trial to proceed. Huhne said: "Having taken responsibility, the only proper course of action for me is to resign my seat in Parliament. Which I will do shortly." Acting Lib Dem leader Vince Cable said he was "shocked and saddened" by Huhne's admission but said his former boss had "taken the right decision". By standing down, Huhne - a Lib Dem "big hitter" - was accepting that his career was over.
Huhne’s conviction was bad news for the Balls coalition. Huhne had been one of the coalition’s strongest supports in the Liberal Democrats, even overthrowing Davey to bring an end to the Osborne coalition. His successor was likely to be Vince Cable who was considerably more hostile to the coalition than Huhne. Huhne had failed to groom a socially liberal successor, most senior members of the Social Liberal Caucus (The group of left-wing Lib Dem MPs), like Tim Farron ruled out running, many of them eyeing up a Presidential bid rather than the toxic role of Deputy Prime Minister.
De-Facto leader of the Lib Dem left, Tim Farron, ruled himself out
“Ed Balls wakes up with a 12 star, continent-sized headache called the Lib Dems. With Huhne gone the Liberal Democrats are skittish and talk of the coalitions collapse and an early election are growing in the halls of Westminster. For the first time in a long time all eyes are on the yellow eagles. Labour backbenchers will want a radical prescription in Vince Cable's budget, the next political set piece of the season. But with Labour and Tories neck and neck a lurch to the left might not be the best medicine. With UKIP "coming up on the rails" all the way through the campaign, then we may have a new vessel of protest. Nigel Farage is no Bippo Grillo, but for anti-politics voters who want to curse mainstream parties as "all the same" he will do.” - Earthquake for the Lib Dems, Torcuil Crichton, Daily Record (2013)
The ink was barely dry on Huhne’s resignation letter when Cable announced his bid to make his acting leadership permanent. Initially it seemed he would be without a challenger. This was until the young Jo Swinson announced she was running. Swinson was an odd opponent, generally ideologically aligned with Cable, but Swinson ran as the generation change candidate. During the history of the Commonwealth, none of the major parties had a woman leader in Parliament, Swinson argued that it was time they changed that. At just 32 Swinson was young, telegenic and a strong media performer.
The Liberal Democrats opted for a short leadership campaign of just a few weeks, which suited Cable just fine. The campaign had few surprises, with Cable running on his experience as Chancellor and Deputy Prime Minister and Swinson running as the fresh face. On most ideological questions the pair agreed, they both pledged to maintain the coalition (although Swinson said she would negotiate some terms) and they both pledged to hold the coalition to stricter financial restraints.
The quick campaign coupled with his clear lead amongst party insiders meant Cable’s victory was never really in doubt. Swinson put in a strong campaign, especially amongst less active Lib Dem supporters. She gave Cable a run for his money. Cable’s victory speech was strung around a message of unity, pledging to bring together north and south. He also continued the coalition’s tagline of “responsible capitalism". Whilst many in the press were hoping for him to throw down the gauntlet to Balls, his victory speech was relatively tame, focusing most his anger at the Tories. The coalition had received yet another close shave.
“The Deputy Prime Minister has attacked the Conservatives, claiming they had "reverted to type". Vince Cable called the Conservative election strategist Lynton Crosby "an Australian rottweiler". Mr Cable told the party conference delegates that they had taken a risk working with the Labour, but said it had been right to do so in a national emergency. Cable's speech focusing mostly on George Osborne and the Conservatives will come as a relief to Labour, who had feared a renegotiation or a fresh conference vote on the coalition.” - Andrew Neil, Vince Cable attacks Conservatives, BBC Sunday Politics (2013)
To what extent did Huhne’s resignation affect internal coalition relations? (30 Marks) - A Level History Exam (2019)
Closer Look, 2011 Anglia Parliamentary Election
Over in Anglia the political scene was increasingly fragmenting. Premier Tim Yeo have overseen a dysfunctional coalition of Conservatives and Liberals that had been on the rocks since the First Minister and Deputy First Minister were both raised to the Cabinet.
The Conservatives were led by former Finance Secretary Mark Prisk. Prisk had been hailed across the region for his work in restoring Anglian high streets during the Pickles coalition, through cutting rents and taxes. Prisk ran a traditional Conservative campaign focusing on economic liberalism, and support for business. From the moderate wing of the Tories, Prisk repeatedly ruled out going into coalition with UKIP or the English Democrats. Prisk was hit badly by the growth of the various right wing parties and lost eight seats.
Anglia UKIP was led by rising star Tim Aker. Aker was from the moderate Faragite wing of UKIP and had put a lot of capital into detoxifying the party and presenting his caucus as a Government in waiting. Through this he dropped national issues like Europe and the Monarchy restoration, instead focusing on local policies such as support for motorists and rural areas. The strategy paid off, gaining UKIP four seats, but Aker's abandonment of core issues caused a split in his caucus.
Anglia Labour was still led by the controversial Kelvin Hopkins, interventions both from within the caucus and from national Labour had failed to remove him, Hopkins reformed Anglian Labour as a "working class" movement, specifically targeting working class areas like Luton and South Essex. Hopkins' strategy, coupled with a national move toward Labour gained the party a 7% swing.
As for the mid-level parties, the Liberal Democrats were wounded by the coalition, declining to just 13 seats, the Greens stagnated, focusing on national politics and the BNP, facing stiff competition from UKIP and the English Democrats lost nearly half its seats.
Anglia was notable for the number of minor parties breaking into national politics, the English Democrats have traditionally been strong in Anglia but the Tories and UKIP's move to the left allowed the party to break through and gain five seats. Another minor right-wing party was UK First was formed by a group of four UKIP legislators who had quit the party at protest of Aker's abandonment of Monarchism and Euro-scepticism as major issues. The party hoped to fill the void between UKIP and the BNP. Whilst they didn't make a huge splash, all four legislators managed to hold onto their seats. The Christian Party also made a breakthrough in rural areas, making Anglia the second region (second to London) to elect Christian Party legislators.
After the election there was a mishmash of right wing parties, the English Democrats, UKF and Christians formed a joint Parliamentary group, the "Alliance for Democracy", making them the fourth largest group in the Anglian Parliament. Prisk was eager to avoid bringing any of the reactionary parties into Government and thus offered a grand coalition with Labour and Liberal Democrats, Hopkins initially rejected this but a coup by Labour MPs, fearful of a UKIP/BNP Government, forced Hopkins to accept the coalition
"Robin Page MAP, has resigned from Ukip amid bitter accusations of party mismanagement and a leadership cult. Mr Page's resignation, is a major setback for the Eurosceptic party ahead of Regional elections. "There are accusations of rigged internal elections and tales of Westminter extravagance" he writes in The Daily Telegraph. "In short, Ukip is imploding." Mr Page has accused Tim Aker, who he described as a "Blair-like", of running Anglia Ukip as his personal party. "Tim Aker has managed to get almost complete centralised power of Ukip," he wrote. Mr Page has accused Ukip of losing its way after its MPs jumped aboard Westminster's notorious pay and perks gravy train. "Stories from Westminster suggest that Ukip's MPs have come to love the high life of gravy and status. The party created to fight centralised government, sleaze and corruption has become a parody of itself" he said. Mr Aker has accused Mr Page of not being able to "separate fact from fiction and disappointment from reality". "This diatribe seems to be laced with bitterness, inaccuracy and fantastical misinformation."" - UKIP has been corrupted says Robin Page, Bruno Waterfield, The Telegraph (2009)
The Conservatives were led by former Finance Secretary Mark Prisk. Prisk had been hailed across the region for his work in restoring Anglian high streets during the Pickles coalition, through cutting rents and taxes. Prisk ran a traditional Conservative campaign focusing on economic liberalism, and support for business. From the moderate wing of the Tories, Prisk repeatedly ruled out going into coalition with UKIP or the English Democrats. Prisk was hit badly by the growth of the various right wing parties and lost eight seats.
Anglia UKIP was led by rising star Tim Aker. Aker was from the moderate Faragite wing of UKIP and had put a lot of capital into detoxifying the party and presenting his caucus as a Government in waiting. Through this he dropped national issues like Europe and the Monarchy restoration, instead focusing on local policies such as support for motorists and rural areas. The strategy paid off, gaining UKIP four seats, but Aker's abandonment of core issues caused a split in his caucus.
Anglia Labour was still led by the controversial Kelvin Hopkins, interventions both from within the caucus and from national Labour had failed to remove him, Hopkins reformed Anglian Labour as a "working class" movement, specifically targeting working class areas like Luton and South Essex. Hopkins' strategy, coupled with a national move toward Labour gained the party a 7% swing.
As for the mid-level parties, the Liberal Democrats were wounded by the coalition, declining to just 13 seats, the Greens stagnated, focusing on national politics and the BNP, facing stiff competition from UKIP and the English Democrats lost nearly half its seats.
Anglia was notable for the number of minor parties breaking into national politics, the English Democrats have traditionally been strong in Anglia but the Tories and UKIP's move to the left allowed the party to break through and gain five seats. Another minor right-wing party was UK First was formed by a group of four UKIP legislators who had quit the party at protest of Aker's abandonment of Monarchism and Euro-scepticism as major issues. The party hoped to fill the void between UKIP and the BNP. Whilst they didn't make a huge splash, all four legislators managed to hold onto their seats. The Christian Party also made a breakthrough in rural areas, making Anglia the second region (second to London) to elect Christian Party legislators.
After the election there was a mishmash of right wing parties, the English Democrats, UKF and Christians formed a joint Parliamentary group, the "Alliance for Democracy", making them the fourth largest group in the Anglian Parliament. Prisk was eager to avoid bringing any of the reactionary parties into Government and thus offered a grand coalition with Labour and Liberal Democrats, Hopkins initially rejected this but a coup by Labour MPs, fearful of a UKIP/BNP Government, forced Hopkins to accept the coalition
"Robin Page MAP, has resigned from Ukip amid bitter accusations of party mismanagement and a leadership cult. Mr Page's resignation, is a major setback for the Eurosceptic party ahead of Regional elections. "There are accusations of rigged internal elections and tales of Westminter extravagance" he writes in The Daily Telegraph. "In short, Ukip is imploding." Mr Page has accused Tim Aker, who he described as a "Blair-like", of running Anglia Ukip as his personal party. "Tim Aker has managed to get almost complete centralised power of Ukip," he wrote. Mr Page has accused Ukip of losing its way after its MPs jumped aboard Westminster's notorious pay and perks gravy train. "Stories from Westminster suggest that Ukip's MPs have come to love the high life of gravy and status. The party created to fight centralised government, sleaze and corruption has become a parody of itself" he said. Mr Aker has accused Mr Page of not being able to "separate fact from fiction and disappointment from reality". "This diatribe seems to be laced with bitterness, inaccuracy and fantastical misinformation."" - UKIP has been corrupted says Robin Page, Bruno Waterfield, The Telegraph (2009)
Sure thing
UKIP and UKIP Splinter Groups
UK Independence Party
Founded in the early 90s by academic Alan Sked, UKIP is a Eurosceptic, Populist and Economically Liberal Party. It currently has 51 MPs and 30 Senators, and 2 million registered supporters, making it the Commonwealth's fourth largest party. Whilst it has never been in power in any regions it is a minor party in coalition in several region and forms the official opposition in others. There are several internal factions in UKIP, ranging from the Libertarian "Tory-lite" faction to the working class populist "RedKip" faction. As of February 2013 it has a polling average of 14%.
UK First
Founded by Robin Page, an Anglian regional legislator who quit UKIP after not being selected as a national candidate. UKF is a Populist and Eurosceptic Party. UKF differs from UKIP as it focusing on Government corruption and shrinking the size of the state. UKF is also more strongly Monarchist, believing UKIP has strayed from its Monarchist roots in the name of electability. It has less than 100,000 registered supporters. As of February 2013 it has a polling average of >1%
The BNP and BNP Splinter Groups
British National Party
Founded by Neo-Nazis in the 1980s, the BNP describes itself as a Right-Wing Populist Party, but academics tend to agree it is Fascist and White Supremacist. It currently has 15 MPs and 6 Senators, it claims 400,000 registered supported but this has been disputed, if true it would be the Commonwealth's 6th party. As of February 2013 it has a polling average of 2%.
British Democratic Party
Founded by former BNP Senator Andrew Brons, the BNP is an Ultra-nationalist Party founded by BNP MPs unsatisfied with Nick Griffin's leadership. The BDP differs from the BNP as it openly supports policies such as forced deportations and holocaust denial, whilst the BNP nominally claims not to hold those views. It currently has 11 MPs and 4 Senators. It has less than 100,000 registered supporters. As of February 2013 it has a polling average of >1%
Britain First
Founded by BNP MP Paul Golding, Britain First is an Ultra-Nationalist and Fascist Political Party. Britain First differs from the BNP and BDP in that is focus is on religious rather than racial policies, focusing its hatred toward Islam rather than Black or Jewish communities. It currently has 3 MPs and 1 Senator. It has less than 100,000 registered supporters. As of February 2013 it has a polling average of >1%
Miscellaneous Far Right
English Democrats
Founded in 2002, the English Democrats are an English Nationalist and Eurosceptic Party, they campaign for a unified English Parliament and for English Independence. It has no national representation but has broken through in some regions of Southern England. The party has less than 100,000 registered supporters. As of February 2013 it has a polling average of 1%
Christian Party/Christian Democrats (Christian Alliance)
Whilst nominally independent of each other, the two Christian Parties tend to run joint slates. Founded in 2004, the Christian Alliance is a Christian Right and Eurosceptic Party. It has no national representation but does some has local legislators, especially in London where the party has ten members of the London Parliament. As of February 2013 it has a polling average of >1%
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It is an unfortunate side of proportional representation. OTL these parties combined got 12% of the vote in 2009 in Euros for the East of England Region. That was without the paid staff, legitimacy and press coverage they receive in this timeline due to local and national representation. These factors boosted them up to the heights they see now.
I myself grew up in Kent, Paul Golding was a Councillor in my county, I remember when we had a sixth form assembly on the PREVENT programme where the teachers were telling us not to join Britain First cause they were quiet active in the area. I stood with anti-racism groups on the other-side of the picket when Britain First tried to "invade" Maidstone Mosque, it was scary stuff. I don't believe it would be impossible for far-right groups to break through in PR, especially in rural and small-town Southern England.
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What about what's going on with the outer-fringes of the left in the Commonwealth?
So the far-left peaked in the mid 2000s with the SSP in Scotland and Respect in London and Yorkshire. Since then the radical left has declined, many joining the Greens or choosing to engage in street activism rather than national politics (i.e the Occupy Movement). The left has had some victories, such as the election of hard-left Jerry Hicks as Unite General Secretary, but a hard left party hasn't ever broken through in all regions of the Commonwealth. There are whispers of a new left-wing party in the vein of Die Linke, set up by people dissatisfied with Ed Balls, but it has yet to materialise. The Socialist Labour Party is currently the only far left party to have regional representation.
Internal Caucuses
Socialist Caucus (Labour Party)
The Socialist Caucus is the successor to the Socialist Campaign Group, at its 2013 AGM it reported 15 MPs and 9 Senators. It represents the "hard-left" of the Parliamentary Labour Party, it supports Democratic Socialist Principles. It's current chair is John McDonnell MP. In the 2009 Presidential Primary the Caucus endorsed Ed Miliband.
Green Left (Green Party)
The Green Left is an anti-capitalist and eco-socialist grouping of Green MPs and Senators. It has 13 MPs and 7 Senators. It's current chair is Senator Peter Tatchell.
Left Wing Parties
Socialist Labour Party
Founded in the 1990s, the SLP is a Socialist and Anti-Capitalist Party. It differs from other hard-left parties as it focuses on social conservatism and opposition to the EU. It has no national representation but has broken through regionally in Wales. The party has less than 100,000 registered supporters and is polling at 1%
Respect Party
Founded in 2004, Respect is an Anti-War and Socialist Party. It's differs from other left wing parties as its main aim is opposition to wars in the Middle East, thus it performers well in strongly Asian areas. It has no national or regional representation having being wiped out at the 2011 elections. However is does have some local representation, especially in cities like Bradford and East London Boroughs like Tower Hamlets. The party has less than 100,000 registered supporters and is polling at >1%
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition
Founded as an electoral alliance of left wing parties for the 2011 elections, TUSC is a Socialist and Eurosceptic Party. TUSC differs from the other left wing parties as it seeks to organise within the trade union movement rather than in specific communities. It has no national or regional representation but has broken through onto several city councils where is 4 City Councillors and received nearly 10% in the Mayoral election. The party has less than 100,000 registered supporters and is polling at >1%
Scottish Socialist Party
The SSP is a Democratic Socialist and Anti-Capitalist Party. The SSP only organises in Scotland and campaigns for an independent, socialist Scotland. At its peak the SSP had 3 national MPs, 2 Senators and 7 MSPs, now it has no national or regional representation but does hang on in some Councils. The party has less than 100,000 registered supporters and is polling at >1%.
2013, Part 2, Ghosts of the Past
Images of the Syrian Civil War were gaining more and more public attention
“The media is full of folk pontificating that 'something must be done about' Syria. There’s an implication that it’s been decided that the 'something' involves flying cruise missiles into buildings. Parliament’s recalled and we all look forward to seeing if we’re going to be presented with a dodgy dossier and a refusal to publish the Attorney General’s legal advice (ring any bells?). Yet in the midst of all this, my lot is silent. Vince's identical statement to Ball's aside, there’s been almost nothing said by anyone in the Lib Dems since Howard called for the military aid vote.” - Why the Lib Dems are silent on Syria, Richard Morris, New Statesman (2013)
The Lib Dem contest was quickly forgotten as all eyes began to turn to the Middle Eastern nation of Syria. In 2011, Syrians decided to protest after 14 children were arrested for writing anti-government graffiti . The protests were peaceful to begin with, calling for the release of the children, democracy and greater freedom for people in the country. The government responded and, in March 2011, the army opened fire on protesters, killing three people. The following day, they shot at mourners at the victims' funerals, killing another person. People were shocked and angry at what had happened and soon the unrest spread to other parts of the country. At first, the protesters wanted democracy and greater freedom. But demands grew and the protesters called for President Assad to resign. To which Assad refused. In July 2012, the International Red Cross said the violence in Syria had become so widespread that it was in a state of civil war.
There were still some who hoped all sides could be brought round the table, and a bloody civil war could be avoided
As the civil war escalated across late 2012, calls increasingly grew for the West to provide support to the Syrian opposition. In an annual address to both Houses of Parliament, President Howard called on the Government to provide armoured vehicles and body armour to opposition forces in Syria "to help save lives". Howard called for the Commonwealth to offer millions of pounds in "non-lethal" equipment. This included search and rescue, communications, and disease-prevention materials. Howard said it was a "necessary, proportionate and lawful" response to "extreme human suffering". But some MPs said they feared being drawn into a military intervention. Up to 60,000 people had been killed and 300,000 refugees had fled Syria since the crisis began. UN figures showed that 1.5 million had been internally displaced. UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi warned that Syria was "spiralling". Howard told Parliament the Syrian people were in "dire need" of help and the UK could not "look the other way". But many MPs were concerned the Commonwealth was drifting towards military intervention in Syria. Howard refused to rule out the possibility in the future.
“British President, Micheal Howard, has refused to rule out support for military strikes on Syria. Mr Howard spoke amid concerns that strained relations between the US and Russia would come under intense new pressure. He is likely to be pressed on the significance of his saying that Britain did not rule out supporting a UN resolution authorising force. But he was careful to insist that Britain would only act in the event of being handed proof that Assad had used chemical weapons. If this is already a condition the US and France, its main ally in advocating force, would struggle to meet. Howard was also unyielding on his essential argument. To mount military action without UN approval, he declared, would be an "aggression".” - Howard will not rule out a military strike on Syria, Nicholas Watt, The Guardian (2013)
Despite Howard’s considerable foreign policy powers, Parliament still held the power of the purse and he could not send aid to Syria without the support of Parliament. Unfortunately for Howard, Balls wasn’t budging. Balls said Howard's plan would be "a monumental failure of diplomacy" and accused Howard of "making the situation worse". He called for President Assad's offer of negotiations to "be tested to destruction". Secretary Lamb expressed concerns that equipment could fall into the hands of extremists. Labour said the worsening situation was an indictment of the international community's failure to act. Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said: "It is right that efforts must now intensify but the key issue is the breadth of these efforts. There are some vital areas where the international community must better coordinate and target its efforts."
Peaceful protests in Syria had slowly escalated to a full-blown civil war
“There has long been cross-party agreement that Britain should do its bit in supporting the region. The Prime Minister, the Deputy Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition joined together before Christmas. They stood together to say: “The fate of an entire generation of children hangs in the balance. We must all do everything we can to help them.” They also urged other countries to do more. Indeed, the British Government have led the way as the second biggest donor, food for 300,000 people a month across Syria. I pay tribute to the Department for International Development for its work. The British people have also shown immense generosity, donating £30 million. We know that more than 300,000 refugees have fled Syria into neighbouring countries. More than half of them are children. Those who are still trapped in Syria are suffering even greater ordeals that are leaving terrible scars on a generation. There has always been cross-party agreement that the majority of refugees should be supported in the region.” - Yvette Cooper, speaking on the floor of the House of Commons (2013)
Whilst there were some hawks in Labour who wanted more involvement in Syria, Balls himself had sympathy for Howard’s position. But Balls knew there would be an uproar amongst the Greens and Lib Dems if he intervened. The affair demonstrated Ball’s relative weakness, after multiple near collapses of the coalition the end was in sight, Balls couldn’t afford to rock the boat.
Balls' hands were tied by his anti-war coalition partners
The Commonwealth also saw another cultural shock with the death of Margaret Thatcher, Britain’s first woman Prime Minister, Thatcher's role in the Commonwealth had been considerable, a monarchist til the end she had been one of the strongest voices against a republic, she also came out of retirement to serve on the board of the NoEuro campaign back in 2004. Former Prime Minister Thatcher died at the age of 87 after suffering a stroke while staying at the Ritz hotel in central London. George Osborne called her a "great Briton" and President Howard spoke of her sadness at the death. Thatcher was Conservative prime minister from 1979 to 1990. She was the first woman to hold the role. She was to have a state funeral, the first state funeral since Princess Diana and the transition to Commonwealth. The ceremony, with full military honours, would take place at London's St Paul's Cathedral. The union jack above Number 10 Downing Street was lowered to half-mast while Parliament was recalled from its Easter recess. After cancelling planned talks in Paris with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Balls made a statement outside No 10. Balls paid tribute to Baroness Thatcher, saying she ''broke the mould'' and had the ability to ''overcome every obstacle in her path." "I disagreed with much of what she did. I respect what her death means for many, many people who admired her, and I honour her personal achievements.''
Thatcher’s death was a stark reminder of the death of the old Britain, Thatcher was one of the few mainstream politicians to call for a return to a United Kingdom, with her passing that tie to the old ways was broken. Many, especially those on the right saw Thatcher as a hero and a mentor. Despite this Osborne was weary of making political capital of her passing, he knew how toxic Thatcher and Thatcherism was in the key areas he need to win, and his speech on her death was markedly apolitical. This was in stark contrast to UKIP who declared themselves as Thatcher’s true heir. Paying tribute in the Senate, UKIP’s Louise Bours said a young Margaret Thatcher would be more likely to join Ukip than the Conservative Party run by Osborne. Bours described Ukip as "the true inheritors of Thatcher" on European policy. Bours claimed Osborne "couldn't win the next general election" because he could not reach the voters who were attracted by Thatcher.
“Paul Nuttall said on Tuesday his movement was carrying the torch for the late Margaret Thatcher’s views on Europe. Paul Nuttall said he hoped to secure a “large number” of parliamentary seats in Britain in 2014. The party holds no Premierships, but is represented in the British Parliament. "There’s a huge vacuum on the centre-right of British politics today. UKIP could be the catalyst over the course of the next few years for a fundamental realignment of the way politics is structured in Britain. I am leading a movement that is becoming a very successful modern different movement in British politics. My job is to change the entire nature of the national debate,” he added, saying he hoped to alter the way the country was governed. Once dismissed by George Osborne as “a party of fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists”, UKIP has seen its poll ratings surge to 20 percent. Nuttall wants Britain to leave the EU and to halt what he calls “open-door immigration”. Although UKIP has 51 lawmakers in the 650-member British Parliament, it does not yet have any regional Premiers.” - UKIP claims Thatcher mantle, has vote hope, Andrew Osborne, Reuters (2013)
Nigel Farage fancied himself the heir to Thatcher
What impact did Thatcherism have on the post 1998 Commonwealth? (30 Marks) - A Level Politics Exam (30 Marks)
Closer Look, 2011 North West Senate Election
The North West elections were the first test of newly elected Premier Stephen O'Brien, one of the Northern Tory Premiers elected in the 2009 wave. Unfortunately for O'Brien he was unable to form a majority in the North West Parliament, thus the North West went into a period of cohabitation with Labour's Derek Twigg serving as First Minister in coalition with the Lib Dems and supported by the Greens.
Labour were led by North West Transport Secretary Maria Eagle, after incumbent Senate President Beverly Hughes announced she would be retiring. Eagle's policy focus was on improving rail and bus infrastructure in the North West, promising to bring the regions transport "in line with London". The results were disappointing as the party failed to make progress from 2007, losing a seat.
The Conservatives were led by Edward Timpson, heir to the Timpson shoe repair fortune. The Conservative campaign focused on local issues, such as crime and antisocial behaviour, pledging to support young people by crime prevention and apprenticeships. Timpson too ran a stagnant campaign and lost a Senator.
UKIP was led by Orthodox Jewish Rabbi and Salford regional Senator Shneur Odze. During the campaign, Odze came under controversy for refusing to shake hands with women voters due to his religious beliefs, which prohibited physical contact with any woman other than his wife. One of the party's regional Senators resigned in protest. However this controversy didn't dampen the national swing towards UKIP, gaining the party two more Senators.
As for minor parties, the Liberal Democrats declined due to the coalition, the Greens managed to pick up a seat with young voters dissatisfied with Twigg's moderate leadership and the BNP failed to make any improvements on its 2007 result.
After the results were announced the coalition had lost its majority in the Senate, thus they invited the Greens to join the North West's coalition Government.
"Britain’s most high-profile Jewish election candidate has revealed the depth of opposition he faced. Shneur Odze, the Orthodox Lubavitch candidate who stood for Ukip said he had undergone a period of soul-searching. He claimed Jewish voters in some parts of Lancashire, had led a tactical campaign to scupper his chances to become minority leader. “The Senate result was disappointing. We expected to break into second place but came third by a long way. I never take politics personally, but this was very different,” he said. “I don’t care about trolls on Twitter but I had pretty painful attacks from the Jewish community. I searched my conscience. Everybody can’t be wrong. It made me think long and hard about what I was doing. I discussed it at length with my rabbis. I looked at the party’s policies, particularly our immigration policy. In the end, I was actually quite sure of myself. I realised we must be either totally right or totally wrong. I do believe we are right.” The blow has left him considering his political future after months of national and local publicity around his candidacy." - Ukip Charedi claims he lost because of the Jews, Marcus Dysch, Jewish Chronicle (2011)
Labour were led by North West Transport Secretary Maria Eagle, after incumbent Senate President Beverly Hughes announced she would be retiring. Eagle's policy focus was on improving rail and bus infrastructure in the North West, promising to bring the regions transport "in line with London". The results were disappointing as the party failed to make progress from 2007, losing a seat.
The Conservatives were led by Edward Timpson, heir to the Timpson shoe repair fortune. The Conservative campaign focused on local issues, such as crime and antisocial behaviour, pledging to support young people by crime prevention and apprenticeships. Timpson too ran a stagnant campaign and lost a Senator.
UKIP was led by Orthodox Jewish Rabbi and Salford regional Senator Shneur Odze. During the campaign, Odze came under controversy for refusing to shake hands with women voters due to his religious beliefs, which prohibited physical contact with any woman other than his wife. One of the party's regional Senators resigned in protest. However this controversy didn't dampen the national swing towards UKIP, gaining the party two more Senators.
As for minor parties, the Liberal Democrats declined due to the coalition, the Greens managed to pick up a seat with young voters dissatisfied with Twigg's moderate leadership and the BNP failed to make any improvements on its 2007 result.
After the results were announced the coalition had lost its majority in the Senate, thus they invited the Greens to join the North West's coalition Government.
"Britain’s most high-profile Jewish election candidate has revealed the depth of opposition he faced. Shneur Odze, the Orthodox Lubavitch candidate who stood for Ukip said he had undergone a period of soul-searching. He claimed Jewish voters in some parts of Lancashire, had led a tactical campaign to scupper his chances to become minority leader. “The Senate result was disappointing. We expected to break into second place but came third by a long way. I never take politics personally, but this was very different,” he said. “I don’t care about trolls on Twitter but I had pretty painful attacks from the Jewish community. I searched my conscience. Everybody can’t be wrong. It made me think long and hard about what I was doing. I discussed it at length with my rabbis. I looked at the party’s policies, particularly our immigration policy. In the end, I was actually quite sure of myself. I realised we must be either totally right or totally wrong. I do believe we are right.” The blow has left him considering his political future after months of national and local publicity around his candidacy." - Ukip Charedi claims he lost because of the Jews, Marcus Dysch, Jewish Chronicle (2011)
2013, Part 3, Firestarter
Street parties for Thatcher's death broke out in cities across the Commonwealth
“As the international community learned of Margaret Thatcher's death, a mixed reaction began to emerge. Not everyone was mourning the death of the Iron Lady, who accumulated many opponents during her political reign. Thatcher was as polarising in death as in life, said CBC's John Northcott, who was rounding up online reaction to Thatcher's death. Online, some people started organising parties to celebrate her death, he said. One online site invoked one of Thatcher's quotes, saying, "This lady's not returning" and asked, "How are you celebrating?" Daily Telegraph editor Tony Gallagher tweeted the site was closing comments on all their stories. "Even our address to email tributes is filled with abuse." After the President announced that Thatcher will receive a ceremonial funeral, many complained. An online petition calling for Thatcher's state funeral to be privatised, amassed more than 40,000 signatures before it was closed. Scores of Argentinians posted criticisms of her on Twitter, blaming her for the deaths of 640 Argentine troops.” - Margaret Thatcher's death evokes polarised reaction, CBC News (2013)
Thatcher’s death had polarised people and divides had emerged, many saw a state funeral as rubbing salt in the wounds of those who had suffered under her leadership. In some areas impromptu street parties broke out. People cheered and handed out 'Maggie death cake' at one of several street parties. Videos of the gathering in Leeds were posted on YouTube and shows dozens of people whooping in delight. Crowds chanting: "If you all hate Thatcher, clap your hands." Within an hour of her passing being announced, a public celebration in Brixton, South London broke out. By nightfall it had attracted around 600 protesters. Some attendees were carrying banners, with one saying: "Rejoice, Thatcher is dead." They also opened champagne and cheered, shouting: "Maggie, Maggie, Maggie, dead, dead, dead." One shouted: "Free milk for all." In Glasgow more than 400 people gathered in George Square in the city centre to hold the impromptu party. Campaigners shouted from loudspeakers, "Maggie, Maggie, Maggie" as the crowd replied "dead, dead, dead". A chorus of "so long the witch is dead" erupted from those gathered as a cork from a champagne bottle was popped.
Thatcher's funeral saw a small number of peaceful protesters
President Howard led mourners in St Paul's Cathedral at the funeral of Thatcher. More than 1,000 guests from around the world paid their last respects at the biggest such occasion since the Diana's Funeral in 1997. Thousands of members of the public and the armed forces lined the funeral procession route through London. PM Ed Balls said it was a "fitting tribute" to a major figure. Three thousand police officers were on duty in central London but only a small number of protesters voiced their opposition. The congregation included Thatcher's family and all surviving prime ministers and presidents. At her personal request, the service did not include any eulogies.
The street parties received condemnation from all mainstream parties, even Northern Irish Premier Martin McGuinness condemned the protesters on Twitter. Acts of protest such as getting “Ding Dong the Witch is Dead” to number one were seen as crass and offensive by many. The protests weren’t the only source of dispute, the funeral itself was at the cost to the taxpayer of £3 million, Comedian Frankie Boyle commented “For 3 million you could give everyone in Scotland a shovel, and we could dig a hole so deep we could hand her over to Satan in person.”
“The comedian Frankie Boyle has set up an alternative running commentary to Lady Thatcher's funeral. With edgy outrageous messages to his 1.4 million followers on Twitter. Boyle, made several references to being sexually excited by the funeral proceedings. He tweeted: "She hasn't brought central London to a standstill like this since the Poll Tax riots." As guests arrived at St Paul's Cathedral, the comedian said: "This guest list is a damning indictment of the inefficiency of the IRA." As the bells of St Paul's tolled, he tweeted: "That bell ringing symbolises each of the strokes that finished her." Despite being offensive, his commentary appeared to attract support online. Boyle last appeared on the BBC in 2009 on the panel show Mock the Week. He left following a series of controversial jokes, including one in 2008 about swimmer Rebecca Adlington. Last month, Shane Allen, the BBC's new controller of comedy commissioning said he would like to see the comic have his own series at the corporation.” - Frankie Boyle launches alternative Thatcher funeral commentary, Robert Booth, The Guardian (2013)
Boyle's return to the BBC was put in jeopardy after the organisation received a record number of complaints around Boyle's commentary
As Thatcher faded into memory, increasingly eyes began to turn to the 2014 elections. Preparations were escalated when, in a joint press conference, President Howard and Leader of the Opposition Osborne announced if they were to win the 2014 elections, they would hold an in/out referendum on Britain's membership of the EU. Michael Howard said only his party is offering a "clear choice" about the Commonwealth's future in Europe. The Tories published a draft bill outlining plans for a referendum by the end of 2016. The President said the Liberal Democrats and Labour were not willing to listen to the public on the issue. Howard said he has shown leadership on the issue but critics said he was being dictated to by his backbenchers. Tory MPs sought to force a vote on the bill. George Osborne aimed to reassure the party's MPs that the party would let the public have their say on the Commonwealth's future in Europe. The bill stated that voters would be asked the question "do you think that the United Kingdom should remain a member of the European Union?" in a referendum to be held no later than 31 December 2016. But, speaking in the US - where he was on a three day-visit - Howard said a referendum was not possible without a Conservative Government. "We want a renegotiation, they don't, we want an in-out referendum, they don't."
“Government ministers should be given a free vote on whether to support a referendum on the EU, President Michael Howard has said. He told the BBC that both sides of the argument had to be treated with respect and ministers should be allowed to campaign for an EU exit if they wanted. Michael Howard presented his bid for an EU referendum to Parliament earlier this month. No 10 says no decision on a free vote will be made until the bill reaches the floor of Parliament. Mr Balls says he is keeping "all options on the table" in regards to an EU referendum. When Howard ran in the 2009 election, he proposed a renegotiation of the relationship with Brussels. He said that if the Balls' scepticism to a referendum failed to please his colleagues, then he should allow them to vote with their consciences. He told Radio 4's that whilst collective responsibility is important, once the Bill hits Parliament there should be a free vote.” - Michael Howard says ministers should have free vote, BBC News (2013)
Many politicians were thinking about European policy with one eye on the polls
Howard had thrown a Molotov cocktail into the centre of Commonwealth politics. He knew the bill wouldn’t pass without Labour and Liberal Democrat votes. Whilst Balls had said he was “keeping his options open” on Europe, there was no way he’d allow a referendum on Howard's terms. The Liberal Democrats were fundamentally against the policy. Even George Osborne had his private doubts but he couldn’t risk a backbench rebellion by publicly facing Howard down on the issue.
However the Bill would be going to a vote, as was Howard’s prerogative. Now the main issue for Balls was whether to enforce a coalition wide whip on the issue. Balls was not an instinctive Europhille, he knew whilst the Bill was unlikely to pass, forcing a three-line whip could collapse his fragile coalition. The Greens, fans of direct democracy, had committed to supporting an in/out Referendum, and there was a not inconsiderable number of backbench Labour MPs in Eurosceptic seats who would break ranks for an EU referendum. Balls had to decide, was Europe a hill worth dying on?
“Two recurring European nightmares trouble the Labour Party’s strategists. In the first the Conservative Party wins the next election by taunting Labour for its opposition to a referendum on EU membership. In the second Labour commits to a referendum and wins the election. It spends two years urging voters to back membership—but loses the vote, sending Britain out of the union. President Michael Howard, pledged to hold a referendum by the end of 2016 if his Conservative Party wins the next election. Labour shuffled its feet, saying it would watch developments in the EU before setting out its stall. But two camps emerged within the party. Some, including Ed Balls, worried about Labour seeming out of touch and distrustful of voters. They are seriously considering echoing Howard's commitment. A second camp, including Douglas Alexander, was more worried by the prospect that Labour could propel Britain out of the EU.” - Europhile and proud, The Economist (2013)
Labour's Senate Leader Douglas Alexander was one of the strongest voices against supporting a referendum in the Cabinet
How far do you agree that “Ed Balls was at heart, more Eurosceptic than Europhillic” (30 Marks) - A Level Politics Exam (2019)
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Given how opposed Osbourne was to having a referendum OTL I’m not sure I can see him acquiescing to one when he’s leading the party, unless he’s particularly nervous about his job security given his loss of the last election.
Closer Look, 2011 Northern Ireland Parliamentary Election
The 2011 Northern Irish Election took place with a historic backdrop, with Martin McGuinness serving as the regions first nationalist Premier, the power-sharing arangment meant the executive was split between the major parties, and thus far it had been working surprisingly well.
The DUP were the biggest winners of the election, consolidating the Unionist vote behind them and retaking the First Minister's office. In the words of DUP Leader Arlene Foster, the shock of McGuinness' victory had "focused hearts and minds" in the Unionist community, with many who had voted UUP or TUV in protest returning to the DUP's fold.
Sinn Fein also benefited from the two-party polarisation and consolidation of the left wing vote with the collapse of the Northern Irish Greens. Sinn Fein had proven themselves in Government and led a fairly successful administration, helping them to unify the Republican vote.
The SDLP struggled, with Sinn Fein in Government and the Alliance surging the SDLP struggled to find a niche for itself, the "moderate nationalist" vote was quickly being balkanised. Despite this they managed to hold on and avoid the cataclysm that smaller unionist parties faced.
The smaller unionist parties suffered the most in the 2011 elections, fear of Sinn Fein had rallied the Unionist vote around the DUP. The TUV especially struggled hold itself together due to infighting in its ranks.
As for cross-community parties, Alliance had a strong election picking up an extra seat, however the elections had been a disaster for the Greens after the departure of their popular leader Brian Wilson and they fell below the 4% threshold.
The most obvious consequence of the 2011 election was the return of the DUP to the First Minister's Office, bringing cohabitation back into the Northern Irish system. Some scholars argue this caused panic amongst some radical members of Sinn Fein and caused McGuinness to call for a border poll shortly after the election.
"This year, the Democratic Unionist Party will celebrate its 40th anniversary. It was only 8 years ago that it eclipsed the UUP to become the dominant unionist party in Northern Ireland. In that decade it has seen mixed election results, two leadership changes, the departure of its founder, and controversy. Now, as the May election for the Northern Ireland Assembly draws near, the DUP and its new parliamentary leader, Arlene Foster, are confident they will return. Looking at their track record in Assembly elections, it’s not hard to see why. The DUP can expect to be returned as the largest party in the next Assembly elections in 2011. Polls have shown TUV and UUP voters deserting in their droves to climb aboard the Arlene Foster express, the DUP has established itself at the top of Unionist politics." - DUP: Is the only way up for the party?, Slugger O'Toole (2011)
The DUP were the biggest winners of the election, consolidating the Unionist vote behind them and retaking the First Minister's office. In the words of DUP Leader Arlene Foster, the shock of McGuinness' victory had "focused hearts and minds" in the Unionist community, with many who had voted UUP or TUV in protest returning to the DUP's fold.
Sinn Fein also benefited from the two-party polarisation and consolidation of the left wing vote with the collapse of the Northern Irish Greens. Sinn Fein had proven themselves in Government and led a fairly successful administration, helping them to unify the Republican vote.
The SDLP struggled, with Sinn Fein in Government and the Alliance surging the SDLP struggled to find a niche for itself, the "moderate nationalist" vote was quickly being balkanised. Despite this they managed to hold on and avoid the cataclysm that smaller unionist parties faced.
The smaller unionist parties suffered the most in the 2011 elections, fear of Sinn Fein had rallied the Unionist vote around the DUP. The TUV especially struggled hold itself together due to infighting in its ranks.
As for cross-community parties, Alliance had a strong election picking up an extra seat, however the elections had been a disaster for the Greens after the departure of their popular leader Brian Wilson and they fell below the 4% threshold.
The most obvious consequence of the 2011 election was the return of the DUP to the First Minister's Office, bringing cohabitation back into the Northern Irish system. Some scholars argue this caused panic amongst some radical members of Sinn Fein and caused McGuinness to call for a border poll shortly after the election.
"This year, the Democratic Unionist Party will celebrate its 40th anniversary. It was only 8 years ago that it eclipsed the UUP to become the dominant unionist party in Northern Ireland. In that decade it has seen mixed election results, two leadership changes, the departure of its founder, and controversy. Now, as the May election for the Northern Ireland Assembly draws near, the DUP and its new parliamentary leader, Arlene Foster, are confident they will return. Looking at their track record in Assembly elections, it’s not hard to see why. The DUP can expect to be returned as the largest party in the next Assembly elections in 2011. Polls have shown TUV and UUP voters deserting in their droves to climb aboard the Arlene Foster express, the DUP has established itself at the top of Unionist politics." - DUP: Is the only way up for the party?, Slugger O'Toole (2011)
That's a fair argument but I'd justify it with two points:
Firstly, I think Osborne's opposition to the referendum tends to be overstated with the benefit of hindsight, especially by Osborne himself who has tried to reinvent himself as a Europhile in recent years. In the early-mid 2010s he was just as enthusiastic for a vote as Cameron was. He even called for an EU referendum to be enshrined in the Queens speech and publicly went after Nick Clegg for opposing it.
Secondly, the joy of being in Opposition is you can propose things you don't expect (or even want) to pass. Osborne's fully aware that a Referendum would never pass Parliament and the Senate without a massive Labour rebellion, what he can do is embarrass Labour, split the coalition, and try and drag some UKIP voters back into the fold. Politically it's a win.
These jokes actually made me laugh out loud. No one does it quite like Frankie!
2013, Part 4, Walking the Tightrope
Europe had always been a divisive issue in the Commonwealth
“British politics has long revered parliamentary sovereignty and self-government. Such a political culture ought to be hostile to direct democracy. Yet all the most important constitutional decisions of the past two decades have been decided by referendums. Of course the Commonwealth was born of the 1998 referendum. The first UK-wide referendum was held in 1975 and concerned whether to stay in the then European Economic Community. Britons’ decision to maintain membership then has had wide-ranging constitutional ramifications. It has sparked an enduring debate on Europe. Forty years later, an in/out referendum on EU membership is seen as the best way to settle the ‘Europe question’ of how far to pursue closer political union. The expectation that a vote can settle the issues EU membership raises is puzzling. Belief in resolution by referendum crosses party divisions over European integration. The 2008 coalition government introduced a ‘referendum lock’ whereby any new EU treaty bestowing more powers on Brussels must be ratified by a popular vote.” - Why a British referendum on EU membership will not solve the Europe question, Chatham House Speech, Andrew Glencross (2013)
After a long deliberative Cabinet meeting, the coalition came to an agreement, whilst their individual party whips would be able to enforce a vote if they chose, there would not be a coalition wide whip on the EU Referendum Bill. The Liberal Democrats would be whipping against, the Greens for, and Labour? Well no-one really knew yet. Senior Labour Senators like Douglas Alexander, Ed Miliband and Chuka Umunna were begging Balls to whip against, believing there were enough Labour MPs to vote the bill through, unless they were sent a message. Alex Belardinelli, Balls’ Chief of Staff, was also weary of supporting a referendum.
On the other hand other Labour figures, such as Balls’ wife Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said Labour should vote for the referendum, polling showed UKIP growing exponentially, especially in traditionally Labour areas like County Durham and North-East Lincolnshire. Cooper was eager for Labour to prove it was listening to these areas. After consulting with his aides Balls came to a decision. He would allow a free vote for both Ministers and back-bench MPs, he himself would vote against, but MPs who voted for a Referendum would not be penalised.
London Senator Jon Cruddas led Labour's Eurosceptic faction
With this the debate began. Conservative MPs led calls for the public to have their say in a referendum. George Osborne, said he was "speaking for millions of people" in the country. He said "public sentiment" about Europe had changed and fresh consent for the UK's membership was "long overdue". Labour said the Tories were "talking to themselves" while the Lib Dems branded the bill a "complete stunt". Opening the debate, Osborne said "power should live with the people". He argued the bill would give the public a "real choice" on the UK's future in Europe within a "sensible time-frame". "We should trust the British public to have their say." Backing Osborne's call, UKIP MP Jane Collins said the EU was a "different creature" than it was 40 years ago when the public endorsed entry in a referendum. For the Greens, Leslie Rowe called on "everyone who is a true democrat to unite behind this bill". He said it was "the best chance currently available" for a referendum and to give people "the decisive say which is their right".
“The EU is part of the problem. In our Green vision for Europe we seek to replace the unsustainable economics of free trade and unrestricted growth with the ecological alternative of local self reliance. This is at odds with the declared aim of the EU for continuing economic growth. In laying out her vision for the single market, the Commission President Ashton put economic growth as the main goal. There is no evidence that EU policy will change in the foreseeable future. Indeed Greece may be locked into austerity measures until the year 2050. Economic policy in the EU is controlled by the unelected and secretive Eurogroup. Democracy died the moment the Eurogroup acquired the authority to dictate economic policy to member states. It is the Eurogroup who continue to force privatisation on Greece and other EU states. We in the UK now have a once in a lifetime opportunity to remodel our society, our economy. But only if the Green Party embraces its principles once again and adopts de-growth. We would hold a unique position by opposing all UK free trade agreements and focus on reducing the out of control UK trade deficit.” - The Green Party should support leaving the EU, Leslie Rowe, Left Foot Forward (2013)
After four hours of debate, the House of Commons were finally ready to vote. The result was expected to be close, as many as 20 Labour MPs were expected to break ranks and vote for a Referendum, at the same time as many as 40 europhile Conservative MPs were expected to vote against, so the result could go either way. As Speaker Ming Campbell rose to announce the results, the eyes of Europe were on the Commonwealth.
“The ayes to the right, 314. The noes to the left, 309. The ayes have it. The ayes have it. Unlock!”
The result came as a shock, whilst many expected the result to be close, few expected it to pass! In total 22 Labour MPs voted with the Tories in favour of a referendum, whilst only 34 Conservative MPs voted against the Referendum. The Commonwealth was one step closer to leaving the EU. The result was humiliating for Balls, he had severely underestimated the support for a referendum on his own benches, his whips had reported between 10-15 Labour MPs voting for a referendum, not over 20.
Former West Midlands First Minister turned MP Tom Watson was one of the Labour MPs to support a referendum
“Ed Balls has failed to defeat a bid to grant a referendum on EU membership. The motion passed by 314 votes to 309, Balls granted his MPs a free vote on the issue. In total 22 Labour MPs are known to have defied the whips, while others abstained. Conservative leader George Osborne said the revolt was a "humiliation" for the prime minister. "If he can't win the argument with his own backbenchers, how can the country have confidence that he can win the arguments that matter for Britain?" he said. A Downing Street spokesman said many people who voted for the motion felt very strongly, and their views were respected. "The government has to do what is in the national interest. It was important to take a strong lead - because Britain's best interests are served by being in the EU." The multi-hour Commons debate on the issue was prompted after President Michael Howard called for a Referendum on the EU after a petition on the issue received 90,000 signatures." - Rebels win vote in Commons, BBC News (2013)
All was not lost, the Referendum Bill now had to go to the Senate, now Balls was faced with another dilemma, if he held his current course there was a good chance a referendum would pass, he could become the Prime Minister to take Britain out the EU by accident, on the other hand if he now whipped in the Senate it would be a humiliating climb down. Alexander, Labour’s leader in the Senate, on the other hand was furious. In a raucous joint meeting of the Parliamentary and Senate Labour parties Alexander threatened to whip his Senators against the Bill, with or without Balls’ consent.
Balls had his back against the wall. If he maintained his free vote policy at best Alexander would defy him, causing a dangerous split in the party, at worse the bill would pass and a referendum would actually happen. On the other hand if he whipped against the bill he risked haemorrhaging further support to UKIP in the North of England, it would be an embarrassing u-turn, the Sun would have a field day.
TV presenter David Miliband called Balls to urge him to whip against a referendum
In the end Balls decided that a referendum here and now, on the Tories’ terms wasn’t a risk he could take. In a joint announcement with Alexander, Balls announced Labour Senators would be whipped against the Referendum Bill. Labour’s whips produced a list of 15-20 Senators who were thinking about voting for the bill, and Alexander got to work.
As the Senate debate began, Alexander said the referendum was predicated on an "uncertain strategy". He claimed the issue had become an obsession for the Conservatives. "Three years in, this is a party still banging on about Europe, a party talking to itself and not the country." Lib Dem Senate Leader Danny Alexander, said it was a "complete stunt". He told Senators that the time for a referendum was when the "rules of the game" changed and when "new things were asked of the UK". UKIP Senate Leader David Bannerman said a "passionate" referendum campaign would "wake up" the country. "I want friendship, co-operation and trade (with the EU). I don't want to be part of a political union. I don't find it acceptable that 75% of our laws are now made by the institutions of Brussels." After hours of debate, Senate Presiding Officer Nigel Evans rose to announce the result, and Balls muttered a little prayer.
“The ayes to the right…”
“Some senior politicians such as Leicester Mayor Keith Vaz, called for a referendum. Those most sympathetic to a referendum forced a Cabinet discussion. They pushed to tilt the party's European policy to make it clearer that Labour would keep its options open on a referendum. They did not want Labour to appear to be advocates of a status quo in Europe. That view was reflected in Balls' recent broadcast interviews and the definitive speech to Chatham House. Among those pushing this stance was Senator Jon Cruddas, an unabashed advocate of a referendum. Although there are different attitudes to Europe inside Labour, there is little of the hatred found in the Conservatives. The debate is as much about political tactics as anything. One source said: "It depends how important Europe becomes in the election. It is not currently that important with most voters. But if the issue of whether a party is holding a referendum or not becomes important, then that becomes a problem for us".” - Ed Balls unnerves colleagues by u-turning on EU referendum, Patrick Wintour, The Guardian (2013)
Senior Conservatives like Former Secretary Gove and Premier Johnson backed an EU referendum
“The Senate President is just as powerful as the Prime Minister”, discuss (30 Marks) - A Level Politics Exam (2019)