surviving ottoman empire in WW2

[NATO1949]

World war 1 end as OTL but with ottoman neutral because German ship goeben was sunk by royal navy in August 1914. Without SMS Goshen in Istanbul ottoman will fear direct Russian attack on Istanbul. So ottoman stay neutral until 1918 and attack Soviet to get Baku oil

Archduke Ferdinand was assassinated with bomb instead of bullet of handgun archduke and his wife and governor Oskar potiorek and everyone on car is killed

That led Austrian chief of staff Conrad to mobilized war plan Russia instead of war plan Serbia as OTL . That battle of Galicia August 1914 to end draw instead of heavy Austrian loss as OTL if Austrian draw Russian in Galicia there are no Austrian emergency so German can concentrate on west instead of East

Wat are effect of surviving ottoman empire on world war two ?

 

[Hoplophile]

An Ottoman Empire that remained neutral in the Great War of 1914-1918 would have had the means to reduce the autonomy of its vassals in the Arabian Peninsula, whether Hashemite or Saudi. It would also have been able to reduce British influence over the various sheikdoms of the Persian Gulf. Thus, in the course of the 1920s, it would find itself sitting on top of a great deal of petroleum.

Without a war between the Ottoman Empire and the Entente Powers, there would have been no Russian campaign in the Caucasus, no Franco-British campaign on the Dardanelles, and no British campaign in Mesopotamia. Thus, the Russian forces fighting Germany and Austria-Hungary would have been somewhat stronger, and additional French, British, Italian, and Serbian formations would have been available for service on other fronts.

Once the Entente forces withdrew from the Balkans, the Ottoman Empire would have been in a very strong position vis-a-vis Greece and (especially) Bulgaria. Thus, we might have seen a "Third Balkan War," with the Ottomans attacking one or both of those powers in Thrace.

We might also see some action against the Soviets in the Caucasus and Central Asia. In the former, the Ottomans might decide to assist the Georgians in their quest for independence. In the latter, we might see an attempt to acquire territories in Central Asia inhabited by Turkish-speaking peoples. The biggest jewel in this particular crown would be oil-rich Baku.

Thus, by 1930, we would have a situation in which the Soviet Union was much smaller and much poorer and in which the British Empire had much less control over the places that provided it with petroleum.

 

[Lalli]

Neutral Ottomans would change WW1 very much. Russians would have one front fewer and probably Bulgaria too would remain neutral. Brits and and their subjects would have more resources against Germany so war would be over faster.

So this probably butterfly OTL pretty effectively.

 

[CountDVB]

Though whether the Ottomans would absorb all of Arabia or just leave it to the RIshidi is something to think about. Regardless, they will have to do some serious reforming and with the money from the petrol, they may be able to do that. Though they'd probably itnroduced some sort of Arab Latin alphabet for their subjects within the empire alongside Turkish Latin.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

An Ottoman Empire that remained neutral in the Great War of 1914-1918 would have had the means to reduce the autonomy of its vassals in the Arabian Peninsula, whether Hashemite or Saudi. It would also have been able to reduce British influence over the various sheikdoms of the Persian Gulf. Thus, in the course of the 1920s, it would find itself sitting on top of a great deal of petroleum.

Without a war between the Ottoman Empire and the Entente Powers, there would have been no Russian campaign in the Caucasus, no Franco-British campaign on the Dardanelles, and no British campaign in Mesopotamia. Thus, the Russian forces fighting Germany and Austria-Hungary would have been somewhat stronger, and additional French, British, Italian, and Serbian formations would have been available for service on other fronts.

Once the Entente forces withdrew from the Balkans, the Ottoman Empire would have been in a very strong position vis-a-vis Greece and (especially) Bulgaria. Thus, we might have seen a "Third Balkan War," with the Ottomans attacking one or both of those powers in Thrace.

We might also see some action against the Soviets in the Caucasus and Central Asia. In the former, the Ottomans might decide to assist the Georgians in their quest for independence. In the latter, we might see an attempt to acquire territories in Central Asia inhabited by Turkish-speaking peoples. The biggest jewel in this particular crown would be oil-rich Baku.

Thus, by 1930, we would have a situation in which the Soviet Union was much smaller and much poorer and in which the British Empire had much less control over the places that provided it with petroleum.

At the moment, the hearts of the global petroleum industry are California and Baku, though exploitation of Mosul is also starting to rise. It will take a few decades before Near Eastern sources become a domineering source of that vital fuel, alongside a good deal of investment and technical expertise. Historically, this would be provided by British and American sources (Universities and companies). While it's likely that the Ottoman Empire could provide a greater share of the specialized/educated labor from their core territories than the local Arabs did IOTL, the facilities are probably going to be majority owned by British companies, limiting the local affect of the profits.

I fail to see why there would be more available Serb forces directly, though indirectly you'd likely see lower casualties on the Danubian front (Though, if Russia pushes Gallicia harder earlier you run the risk of Conrad either getting canned/disempowered by German "advisors" before he can make too many stupid moves against Serbia and a more sensible/conservative/cautious campaign taking place their , saving proportionally greater Hapsburg blood). A far bigger impact, though, is the fact the Straits would remain open to Entente traffic and Ottoman resources and potentially contract labor would remain available on the international market. This is a huge boon to Russia, who can now actually export her grain to the French and Brits to help pay for war material and ease her domestic financial and infrastructural strain. This would result in public order breaking down slower and the army staying better supplied for longer, improving Russian military preformance particularly on the Gallician front. Not to mention Romania can be promised direct support from the get go (Possibly using the expeditionary forces that would otherwise be used on the Turks) when the Entente starts looking for the "elsewhere" that will overload the German's ability to properly defend all her frontiers.

This, of course, means We'd likely seethe war over before Russia "cracks", avoiding the Revolution as we know it. Probably this comes as a result of an Austrian collapse/surrender in 1916 or 1917 and Germany either sueing for peace or trying to struggle on only to get squeezed out in a 3 front war and total economic isolation. So, no guaranteed Ottoman gains in the Caucauses, and WWII likely looks completely different to our timeline. Definitely a move on the "traitor" Bulgaria is in the cards though over Western Thrace and maybe even East Rumelia. The diplomatic situation post war likely is Russia vs GB as the main rivalry, with the OE benefitting from this as Britain sees them as a bulwark against Russian expansion south, a check on the Slavic states in the Balkans, and a useful proxy to help weaponize Islamic sentiment to undermine Russian authority and stabilize British reputation in the colonies. Egypt and Cyprus would also remain de juro Ottoman possesions

 

[Eivind]

WW2 as we know it would be butterflied. There might of course be another great war, but the circumstances would be different. As others mention here, there is the possibility that the Russian Revolution might be butterflied, which would profoundly change the historical development compared to OTL. The question should rather be what role the Ottoman Empire would play in future wars. There is also the possibility that Britain and France (plus Russia) would decide to carve out pieces of the Ottoman Empire also in this scenario. If so, wil anyone help them? Who?

 

[FillyofDelphi]

WW2 as we know it would be butterflied. There might of course be another great war, but the circumstances would be different. As others mention here, there is the possibility that the Russian Revolution might be butterflied, which would profoundly change the historical development compared to OTL. The question should rather be what role the Ottoman Empire would play in future wars. There is also the possibility that Britain and France (plus Russia) would decide to carve out pieces of the Ottoman Empire also in this scenario. If so, wil anyone help them? Who?

Unlikely. The Triple Entente is going to fall apart like a house of cards the second the German threat is gone assuming Russia or France survives with Imperial ambitions. One of the two is going to become the "new" strongest power in Continental Europe, and G.B's eternal policy has been to do whatever it takes to prevent a single continenal power from claiming hegemony.

 

[rush4you]

Well, OP already stated that Russian Revolution still occurs, and the Ottomans attack to get Baku. So yeah, we have a more serious contender, with petromoney paving the way for reforms before the war. Bot the Axis and WAllies will do whatever they can to court them, but they'll probably join Axis in order to keep Greece and the Balkans in their thumb, as well as the Soviets away from Baku. If they join the Allies, all they could aspire to is Libya, not good enough.

 

[Lalli]

Well, OP already stated that Russian Revolution still occurs, and the Ottomans attack to get Baku. So yeah, we have a more serious contender, with petromoney paving the way for reforms before the war. Bot the Axis and WAllies will do whatever they can to court them, but they'll probably join Axis in order to keep Greece and the Balkans in their thumb, as well as the Soviets away from Baku. If they join the Allies, all they could aspire to is Libya, not good enough.

Ottomans had already lost most of Balkans and Libya before WW1.