Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.

Mark1878

Donor
And conversely it was unsustainable financial practices such as MEFO bills et all that allowed such a rapid expansion of the German military and supporting industries in the late 30s.

And robbing Peter to pay Paul could only go on for a short period of time.

Had war not happened in 1939 then the wheels of German finances which were already coming off would have come off and its likely that Germany's economy and finances would have imploded probably pushing Germany back to the situation it found itself in during the late 20s and incapable of going to war with its neighbours.

Sustainable finances is often, and correctly, called the 4th arm of defence and while I can easily see massive dividends being reaped had more been invested in the British Arms Industry in the late 30s any government that had done so would have appeared very foolish had war not happened!

Without hindsight I think they did enough for a responsible democratic government answerable to its voters.
Also Britain became a Great Power BECAUSE of the Treasury.
It managed money so well that Britain could get loans and at lower rates than any other power.

Unfortunately after the politicians had made money from the Industrial Revolution they did not invest in industry.
 
Honestly the talk about kettles and food during war makes me really want a story as well researched and written as this one and some others about an SI put in charge of logistics and the impact on the war, everything from better smarter rations to field kitchens and vehicle modules.
 
Also Britain became a Great Power BECAUSE of the Treasury.
It managed money so well that Britain could get loans and at lower rates than any other power.

Unfortunately after the politicians had made money from the Industrial Revolution they did not invest in industry.
Even worse, and continuing into today, British investment banks have been very averse to investing in British industry because larger profits were/are to be found offshore.
Honestly the talk about kettles and food during war makes me really want a story as well researched and written as this one and some others about an SI put in charge of logistics and the impact on the war, everything from better smarter rations to field kitchens and vehicle modules.
See the reforms that occurred during the Crimean War regarding British logistics and the Army catering corps. Reports regarding the poor quality of the food provided to the troops horrified people back in the UK so much, that the head chef of the Reform Club, Alexis Soyer, went out to the Crimea to overhaul military catering.
 
Honestly the talk about kettles and food during war makes me really want a story as well researched and written as this one and some others about an SI put in charge of logistics and the impact on the war, everything from better smarter rations to field kitchens and vehicle modules.
One of the old regulars on naval history usenet - I'm talking way back here and don't recall the guy's name - used to say "the side with the comfy ships wins"
 
And conversely it was unsustainable financial practices such as MEFO bills et all that allowed such a rapid expansion of the German military and supporting industries in the late 30s.

And robbing Peter to pay Paul could only go on for a short period of time.

Had war not happened in 1939 then the wheels of German finances which were already coming off would have come off and its likely that Germany's economy and finances would have imploded probably pushing Germany back to the situation it found itself in during the late 20s and incapable of going to war with its neighbours.

Sustainable finances is often, and correctly, called the 4th arm of defence and while I can easily see massive dividends being reaped had more been invested in the British Arms Industry in the late 30s any government that had done so would have appeared very foolish had war not happened!

Without hindsight I think they did enough for a responsible democratic government answerable to its voters.
Thing is the wheels wouldn't have a chance to come off in Germany because Hitler was going to war whatever happened. Once he could exploit western Europe and outright rape the East the German economy was probably good into the late 1940's, especially as the Nazis didn't care if Frenchmen starved to feed their needs and considered dead Poles a feature not a bug.

Where it might have helped is if the Allies had turned back Sickle cut and Germany gets nothing from 1940. At that point even with Poland things will be coming apart just as the planned 1941 offensive gets moving...
 
Even worse, and continuing into today, British investment banks have been very averse to investing in British industry because larger profits were/are to be found offshore.

See the reforms that occurred during the Crimean War regarding British logistics and the Army catering corps. Reports regarding the poor quality of the food provided to the troops horrified people back in the UK so much, that the head chef of the Reform Club, Alexis Soyer, went out to the Crimea to overhaul military catering.
They were still using his boilers when I was with the colours. Petrol fired by then.
 
The German panzer M34 beret covered a crash helmet similiar to the Hungarian helmet.
In OTL early Bundeswehr tankers wore a similar design.
 
Motto of the Catering Corps: "Help wipe the smile off the soldiers' face!"

If it moves, put it in the pot! If it doesn't, take it out!
The Average British Trooper will fight harder to aquire the enemies rations than even contemplate eating catering corps food.
 
30 March 1942. Vichy, France.
30 March 1942. Vichy, France.

The American Ambassador, Admiral Bill Leahy, sat opposite Marshall Petain, as he had done regularly since being given his role by President Roosevelt. Initially, Leahy had judged Petain positively, but as pressure from the Nazis increased, Petain had become frailer, older, confused and fatigued.

The Germans had been furious that although they had insisted on Weygand being withdrawn from North Africa, Weygand was still there, despite being ordered back, and Yves-Charles Chatel now seen as Governor in Algiers by Vichy. Now Petain was under pressure to bring Pierre Lavan back into the Government, and specifically to act as prime minister. The Germans were insisting of French workers be brought to Germany to make up for the shortfall caused by the mobilisation of much of the German workforce for war.

The position of the American Government, that Leahy was making clear, was that if Lavan was reappointed, as they suspected he would be, then it would be very difficult for the American Government to continue to see the Vichy regime as legitimate. The Under Secretary of State Sumner Welles, Leahy’s link with Washington DC, had made it clear to the Ambassador that the US Government had recognized de Gaulle’s Free French in the territories it controlled. Washington DC would continue to engage with Vichy, though ‘the time may be coming soon when these two policies would no longer be compatible.’

Leahy showed evidence to the Petain that three German warships had docked at Brest and were repaired, resupplied and redeployed. Also, a U-boat had received similar services at Martinique in the West Indies. This was putting pressure on those in Washington who were less convinced that France was still their ally under occupation, and more a willing collaborator with their enemy.

What Leahy didn’t tell Petain was that there was a meeting going on in Algiers, even as they spoke. Jean Monnet, having worked at getting American help to France before May 1940, had been sent by Churchill to Washington to continue his work with the Anglo-French Coordinating Committee, which had been renamed as the British Purchasing Commission.

Monnet had become a regular visitor to the White House and Roosevelt found Monnet’s advice, and perspective, very helpful. Discussions about what should happen regarding the French Empire, had led to Monnet being dispatched from Washington as an envoy to Algiers to make (secret) contact with Weygand under American auspices. In addition to the Frenchman, the President had also sent Douglas MacArthur II, the nephew of the General, a diplomat in the American embassy in Vichy, with a personal letter from the President. They were joined by the French diplomat Rene Massigli, whose presence in France was becoming untenable.

In the letter, Roosevelt spoke of his continuing respect for Weygand, and assured him that the United States was not at war against France, but instead would devote its work to the repatriation of France and French power. MacArthur gave Weygand greater details about American policy. With there no longer being any danger of Germany occupying French North Africa, then plans to mount an American preventative operation to thwart that had been shelved. MacArthur noted that if French warships were used against the US Navy, or if Petain’s government was replaced by an out-and-out pro-German government, then the American response would have to be strong. The question was whether Weygand would lead and rally of the population and local military, in alliance with the United States, and move towards a defeat of Germany and the liberation of France?

The appeal of Monnet was for Weygand to deal directly with the Americans. The position of De Gaulle in London, led many in France to reject him as a puppet of perfidious Albion. This meant that if Weygand was to appeal to America for military support, by-passing the British (at least in theory), then all of France could rally to Weygand. As a soldier, with no interest in getting involved in politics, Weygand’s military appeal was broader than De Gaulle’s, and Monnet was clear that Roosevelt had no time for De Gaulle.

Weygand had got used to being fêted by a variety of interests. His meetings with the British General Wavell had been friendly, as fellow soldiers, they’d much in common, not least an antipathy towards the Boche. The various ‘Free French’ agents had been dismissed out of hand as De Gaulle’s puppets. The Italians, who were technically overseeing French application of the terms of treaty signed after the fall of France, had gone from being overbearing to being obsequious. As for the Germans, well the least said about them the better. The fact that the Americans had never broken off diplomatic relations with Vichy gave them something in their favour. Weygand recognised Petain as the legitimate ruler of France, and as long as that was the case, he could never be overtly disloyal. On the other hand, if a large military force of Americans arrived off the coast of French North Africa, there would be very little that Weygand could do to stop them invading.
 
Obviously this is a bit of a stretch. Some of the meetings took place OTL, including the American ambassador and Petain, which as far as I can see is pretty much what was said. MacArthur II did meet with Weygand, but in France, not Algeria, and there were similar things were reported as being said.
Allan.
 
Hmm it is putting screws to the Marshal and given the more reverses the Axis has suffered compares to OTL they may be making this situation a lot worse heck the Italians are seeming a bit shrill to me.

Still the Manpower in the remaining French colonies if it can be unlocked sooner will be useful for a southern liberation of France.
 
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Obviously this is a bit of a stretch. Some of the meetings took place OTL, including the American ambassador and Petain, which as far as I can see is pretty much what was said. MacArthur II did meet with Weygand, but in France, not Algeria, and there were similar things were reported as being said.
Allan.
There is very little Petain can do, although without DeGaulle he might be able to push the "Sword and Shield" concept a bit harder, but most Frenchmen will still see him as a collaborator so the most he might do is save himself from spending his last years in jail. At most maybe France and Italy can coordinate their Face Heel turns but with only a very weak army and German's on French soil the most they might manage is holding Toulon long enough to get the fleet out and American troops in followed by a prolonged campaign of liberation.
 
Is there anyway that the French can build up more Military or paramilitary capability either without the Germans finding out or without them doing anything about it?

Maybe building up Army forces in North Africa to defend against the British?

And increasing Gendarme numbers in France to counter possible civil unrest?
 
All a bit of a sideshow. The French really have nothing they can offer of significant, Nazi destroying, power. They have no Army worth it's name, no heavy equipment and with Millions of civilians, PoWs, labourers behind enemy lines simply cannot "go back to war". It's like asking an unarmed man with a gun to his head to kick the shins of his assaillant. De Gaulle was a pompous ass, useful for propaganda and few units here and there OTL. No more than that. Of no value ITTL. Vichy France is powerless.. the only thing it could have done of use OTL is for its colonies to break free of Vichy Mainland and aid North Africa a bit faster. No needed ITTL. Move along .. lets get back to the tanks. German's upgraded their Pak's yet on Eastern front? Perhaps the pressure of defeat to British tanks has accelerated Stug conversion/ production? even more incentive to now with Carden's tanks being so effective in NA. Plus there's a few hundred Panzer IIIs and IVs not lying at the bottom of the Med or waiting for Petrol in Tobruk. Fall Blau is going to look very different as A) there is no zero possibility of a link up through the caucausus no matter how many amphetamines the Fuhrer takes B) even if for some reason they still insist on a southern strategy... there are , my estimates, 500 to 1000 , more armoured vehicles and aircraft , with a lot more gas in them, that can be assigned. Afrika Korp may have only been a corp but it took a huge amount of resources, sunken shipping, oil to get every tank ,gun and plane there. Summer '42 is going to be much rougher on the USSR even with slightly better landlease tanks.
 
There is very little Petain can do, although without DeGaulle he might be able to push the "Sword and Shield" concept a bit harder, but most Frenchmen will still see him as a collaborator so the most he might do is save himself from spending his last years in jail. At most maybe France and Italy can coordinate their Face Heel turns but with only a very weak army and German's on French soil the most they might manage is holding Toulon long enough to get the fleet out and American troops in followed by a prolonged campaign of liberation.
In 1942, the US army was not large enough, or experienced enough, for an invasion of southern France, anymore than they were for an invasion of northern France, not even with Free French support. However, Anglo-French-American landings on Sicily, Sardinia and Corsica are within their capabilities, and provide forward airbases for assaults on both the Italian mainland and southern France at later dates.
 
Perversely, the status quo may suit the Allies. A Vichy North Africa volte face at the same time as an Italian collapse would likely gift Corsica and Sardinia to the Allies (assuming it's triggered by an invasion of Sicily). Just depends how long the Germans will allow Vichy (and through them Weygand) time to walk the tightrope.
 
All a bit of a sideshow. The French really have nothing they can offer of significant, Nazi destroying, power. They have no Army worth it's name, no heavy equipment and with Millions of civilians, PoWs, labourers behind enemy lines simply cannot "go back to war". It's like asking an unarmed man with a gun to his head to kick the shins of his assaillant.
This. The Vichy French have the Nazi jackboot on their necks and it isn't going away any time soon. Weygand may bask in the diplomatic attention and dream of being hailed as the saviour of France, but in practice he is not going to declare for the Allies, or even incline to them obviously, when the immediate outcome will be either the Germans dismissing Petain and installing an openly Fascist puppet government which proceeds to declare war on the US (and him) or simply cancelling the armistice and proceeding with the military occupation of southern France. And as long as French North Africa remains officially neutral, the Germans have a motivation to retain Vichy.

So the house of cards stays up for the moment, though under increasing pressure from ever-escalating German demands on Vichy, steadily declining American cooperation and de Gaulle's continued attempts to snipe French colonies. The end of the fighting in North Africa and the fact the Tunisia is no longer a priority area for either side gives Weygand a bit of breathing space, but sooner or later the Western Allies are going to land in Europe (either the Channel coast or Italy) and it's hard to see Vichy surviving that.

Incidentally, was "Lavan" in the update a typo for "Laval"?
 
Is there anyway that the French can build up more Military or paramilitary capability either without the Germans finding out or without them doing anything about it?

Maybe building up Army forces in North Africa to defend against the British?

And increasing Gendarme numbers in France to counter possible civil unrest?
Nope the Germans and Italians are watching metropolitan France rather closely Algeria not so much so they can get away with it some what there. But they don't have any ability yo produce heavy gear and ship it to them given the restrictions and what they do get away either has to be cone in secret.

TBF when the French colonies start running for the door on Vichy any gear will have to come from the US or what the Commonwealth can really spare.
 
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