Sequel de Mayo (Cinco de Mayo, Vol. II)

[1962strat]

Heinrich kinda did the least he could get away with, I think. He was forced by internal politics to do something. Bavaria’s position in Germany was still somewhat shaky at this point, and them feeling that Germany didn’t have their back could lead to questioning why they are in Germany in the first place.

OTOH, Germany going to war for Bavaria could have the opposite effect.

Dankl concurred and urged Ferdinand to mobilize the entire Common Army while leaving the Honved and Heimwehr in reserve for the time being;

I don’t think Austria will be very effective until they mobilize completely. Aside from being less than half the divisions, the K.u.K. Army was known for being underfunded in favor of the Landwehr and Honved.

 

[Dunbar]

Uhm why would Britain defend Belgium when it’s prince caused all this clusterfuck, especially it mobilized first and look like an aggressor?

Did French cabinet threw rationality out of the window?

Isn't it obvious, the civilized nations of Europe will obviously rally to prevent the spread of teutonic barbarism

 

[ElfNoble]

The French decision is bafflingly stupid like they thought Germany would attack over a court case and by Belgium mobilizing they clearly aren’t neutral and can’t be protected by Britain are they stupid

 

[Mayukh]

The French decision is bafflingly stupid like they thought Germany would attack over a court case and by Belgium mobilizing they clearly aren’t neutral and can’t be protected by Britain are they stupid

They thought they needed the war NOW!
Kinda like Germany and Russia dynamic iotl.

 

[KingSweden24]

It wasnt an Austrian affair to get involved.
Stupid decision.

Yes

Did Franz Ferdinand really think that Germany ordered the hit and thats the moment of casus belli?
If not what the time that French Assistances counts most?

Fog of war, etc

This is where I, for at least the twelfth time, wish that Nappy IV was still running the show in France. In fairness to V, in a constitutional monarchy once the cabinet declares war there isn't much the Emperor can do without badly destabilizing the country.

Exactly. And, in fairness to our little pigeon, he did what he could within the confines of his constitutional system to try to encourage his government to back down or at least really think it over, in the only way he knows how (saying “pray on it” lol)

Uhm why would Britain defend Belgium when it’s prince caused all this clusterfuck, especially it mobilized first and look like an aggressor?

Did French cabinet threw rationality out of the window?

Yes

Isn't the French navy much stronger than the IJN?

Yes, but - the MI is all over the world, trying to cover three major seas (at least). The IJN only has to cover one.

Heinrich kinda did the least he could get away with, I think. He was forced by internal politics to do something. Bavaria’s position in Germany was still somewhat shaky at this point, and them feeling that Germany didn’t have their back could lead to questioning why they are in Germany in the first place.

OTOH, Germany going to war for Bavaria could have the opposite effect.

Well put

I don’t think Austria will be very effective until they mobilize completely. Aside from being less than half the divisions, the K.u.K. Army was known for being underfunded in favor of the Landwehr and Honved.

With the French investments and Iron Triangle this imbalance is not as bad as OTL, but you’re not wrong.

The French decision is bafflingly stupid like they thought Germany would attack over a court case and by Belgium mobilizing they clearly aren’t neutral and can’t be protected by Britain are they stupid

OTL’s July Crisis (which these first days of March mimic) would suggest… yes.

 

[Dragonboy]

Yes

Very much so

 

[Indiana Beach Crow]

Uhm why would Britain defend Belgium when it’s prince caused all this clusterfuck, especially it mobilized first and look like an aggressor?

The British government is technically obligated to defend Belgian neutrality due to the Treaty of London (1839 so pre-POD), but the British government's actual motivation is to ensure that no single Continental power controls the majority of the Channel coast facing it.

 

[Lemonfish]

The British government is technically obligated to defend Belgian neutrality due to the Treaty of London (1839 so pre-POD), but the British government's actual motivation is to ensure that no single Continental power controls the majority of the Channel coast facing it.

On the other hand, fall of second empire means that no immediate threat to British procession in Far East and Africa.
So I’m pretty sure they will just sit on the fence and see who came on top.

 

[Mayukh]

The British government is technically obligated to defend Belgian neutrality due to the Treaty of London (1839 so pre-POD), but the British government's actual motivation is to ensure that no single Continental power controls the majority of the Channel coast facing it.

Treaty of London Stipulates that Belgium be neutral and only then will Great Powers defend it.
Belgium forfeited its neutrality the moment it allied with French.
Also the German Naval lobby is less powerfull.

 

[ElfNoble]

Honestly I am curious to how the non Prussian German states are faring (the important ones anyway) like Saxony and how angry the Bavarian street is

 

[Ind89]

Well, it’s finally happening…

Spoiler

Go, Germany and Italy!

 

[TheBalkanizer]

I’ve been waiting over a year for this….

 

[Dalek Ix]

The lamps are going out all over Europe: we shall not see them lit again in our life-time."

-Edward Grey, 1st Viscount Grey of Fallodon​

It has begun.

 

[Curtain Jerker]

Great American War lasted three years and two months. I'm thinking this war lasts longer than that but not by much. This war also feels far less existential than the GAW. Not saying there won't be millions of casualties, just saying that France circa 1923 won't be nearly as bad off as the CSA circa 1918.

 

[Mayukh]

This war also feels far less existential than the GAW.

Yeah... Mostly cuz of the fact that GAW began due national considerations but CEW is just cuz due dressing room drama.

 

[Grand_Panjandrum]

For any other "Memory, Sorrow and Thorn" nerds out there, Utuk'ku the Queen of the Norns was something of an inspiration for Eugenie ITTL

This was the character that popped into my head every time she came up! I am glad it was intentional. Does that make Stephane Clement Jijibo? He is less crazy but certainly as vicious.

 

[naraht]

Yeah... Mostly cuz of the fact that GAW began due national considerations but CEW is just cuz due dressing room drama.

Is it even possible for Germany and Italy to treat France post-war the way that the USA treated the CSA? Germany and Italy can only take so much "border" areas. Germany isn't taking Paris, probably Alsace and the most that would be wanted riverwise is to push France off the Rhine which functionally equals taking Strassbourg. (Which as far as I can tell had been French since 1681) Italy grabs the pre Plombières Agreement borders including Nice/Nizza and (possibly) Corsica. Post war boundaries with what is now AH are going be *far* more fluid and will largely depend if an independent Hungary is at the table.

In terms of the various fronts of the CEW compared to the GAW. No state is as unprepared as the USA was. FG, FI & IA will look a lot like the war east of the Appalachians, but if the USA had 5 Divisions in Maryland on alert on day 1.

GA will be sort of a cross between the Midlands front, the mountainous edge of the Eastern Front and the Ozarks. There will be nothing equivalent to the Western Front, Mesopotamia (Brazilian/Argentine) or Chile's fighting. The equivalent to Nashville is *probably* Prague. (Possibly also Bratislava) The equivalent to Chile is Denmark is with less war stupidity. The equivalent to Britain is... Britain. The most likely powers outside of Europe to be courted are Japan, Mexico and Brazil, but with only Japan greater than a 25% chance, I think. *Lots* of efforts to recruit experienced troops from the GAW to the CEW, with the *most* recruited being Pilots and *anyone* involved with the breakthrough at Nashville or any of the advances in the East. I don't remember where the Colonel(?) in charge of Section R ended up, could make the US lean the other way.

Navywise, you'll have Naval fighting away from Europe including the Southern Caribbean and Asia. Japan joining one side or another will make far more difference than it did in Our WWI.

 

[username5243]

Is it even possible for Germany and Italy to treat France post-war the way that the USA treated the CSA? Germany and Italy can only take so much "border" areas. Germany isn't taking Paris, probably Alsace and the most that would be wanted riverwise is to push France off the Rhine which functionally equals taking Strassbourg. (Which as far as I can tell had been French since 1681) Italy grabs the pre Plombières Agreement borders including Nice/Nizza and (possibly) Corsica. Post war boundaries with what is now AH are going be *far* more fluid and will largely depend if an independent Hungary is at the table.

In terms of the various fronts of the CEW compared to the GAW. No state is as unprepared as the USA was. FG, FI & IA will look a lot like the war east of the Appalachians, but if the USA had 5 Divisions in Maryland on alert on day 1.

GA will be sort of a cross between the Midlands front, the mountainous edge of the Eastern Front and the Ozarks. There will be nothing equivalent to the Western Front, Mesopotamia (Brazilian/Argentine) or Chile's fighting. The equivalent to Nashville is *probably* Prague. (Possibly also Bratislava) The equivalent to Chile is Denmark is with less war stupidity. The equivalent to Britain is... Britain. The most likely powers outside of Europe to be courted are Japan, Mexico and Brazil, but with only Japan greater than a 25% chance, I think. *Lots* of efforts to recruit experienced troops from the GAW to the CEW, with the *most* recruited being Pilots and *anyone* involved with the breakthrough at Nashville or any of the advances in the East. I don't remember where the Colonel(?) in charge of Section R ended up, could make the US lean the other way.

Navywise, you'll have Naval fighting away from Europe including the Southern Caribbean and Asia. Japan joining one side or another will make far more difference than it did in Our WWI.

In some sense Russia could also be argued to be playing the role of UK/Canada in the GAW as a large non-aligne power. Other than that only other ones who care could maybe be Netherlands, Romania, or Spain (all of which I imagine are varying levels of cheering on Berlin but not wanting to join).

We have touched on Europe and Asia but what about any fighting in Africa? I am trying to remembe where (other than between German Greater Angola and the Belgian/French Congos) the belligerent powers have colonies next to each other...are French Djibouti and Italian SOmalia still a thing here?

 

[1962strat]

Is it even possible for Germany and Italy to treat France post-war the way that the USA treated the CSA? Germany and Italy can only take so much "border" areas. Germany isn't taking Paris, probably Alsace and the most that would be wanted riverwise is to push France off the Rhine which functionally equals taking Strassbourg. (Which as far as I can tell had been French since 1681) Italy grabs the pre Plombières Agreement borders including Nice/Nizza and (possibly) Corsica. Post war boundaries with what is now AH are going be *far* more fluid and will largely depend if an independent Hungary is at the table.

I imagine Germany is going to take a slightly larger Alsace-Lorraine than OTL, to include the Longwy-Briey iron basin that was right on the border and had not been discovered in 1871.

 

[Dunbar]

France will return the Pope to Rome and put the Teutons in their place Vive la France. No I have not been possessed by the ghost of Poincare