Protect and Survive: A Timeline

[Macragge1]

Are the Command Centres the Regional Seats of Government? Because if so, the South's wasn't in Reading (as the Region 6 War Room on Whiteknights Campus, University of Reading (my alma mater) had to be abandoned following the invention of the H-Bomb), but Crowborough in Sussex or Basingstoke (can't work out when Crowborough was finished). Though Reading probably would have been hit as the main east-west transport hub.

Very observant! Command Centres here aren't all Regional Centres of Government, but rather where the Soviets believe they are located. This is the key reason that York, for example, was hit, even though the North-Eastern command centre was hastily relocated during the transition-to-war. Soviet intelligence still believed (or at least, those targeting the missiles didn't know better) that the command centre was in Reading.

Thanks for the link as well - hadn't seen some of that stuff.

 

[Stateless]

The bunker on campus is now used for all sorts of storage, but if you ask the right people politely (and have an excuse, like "we're thinking of using it for filming") you can go down and have a little look, which is quite a cool way to spend an afternoon for undergrads. Still loving the timeline, by the way, I look forward to every update.

 

[M. A. Dickens]

Oh, thank the good Lord you spared Hong Kong (mostly, at any rate - it's easier to survive the fallout than a direct hit, right?), or else I'll never be born...

A very good and disturbing TL. Do continue, although I dread to imagine what horror awaits...

Marc A

 

[Pyro]

I'm guessing it will be a while before we hear about the fate of North America, unless there is some chance encounter with American/Canadian vessels in the Atlantic.

 

[Hendryk]

A gripping TL. We're eager to find out more about what shape the world is in after the nuclear escalation.

 

[Paulo the Limey]

You mentioned Leeds on the casualty list twice- was this intentional?

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Telex 01.03.1984. CHANTICLEER. NATO eyes only. Hits on British targets.

Memorandum - For obvious reasons, all fatality figures are estimated. Casualties are uncountable. List of targets incomplete. God Save The Queen - Whitelaw.


Population Centres -

London - 10 bombs. 560,000 dead.
Birmingham - 8 bombs. 180,000 dead.
Liverpool - 8 bombs. 120,000 dead.
Manchester - 4 bombs. 100,000 dead
Glasgow - 4 bombs. 100,000 dead.
Edinburgh - 2 bombs. 90,000 dead.
Cardiff - " . 90,000 dead.
Belfast - " . 88,000 dead.
Coventry - ". 66,000 dead.
Hull - " . - 56,000 dead.
Bristol - " . 55,000 dead.
Leeds - " . 45,000 dead.
Sheffield - " . 33,000 dead.
Derby - " . 23,000 dead.
Huddersfield - " . 21,000 dead.
Plymouth - " . 65,000 dead.
Newcastle - " . 45,000 dead.
Preston - 1 bomb. 41,000 dead.
Carlisle - " . 40,000 dead.
Bolton - " . 38,000 dead.
Barrow - " . 36,000 dead.
Stoke - " . 32,000 dead.
Leeds - " . 22,000 dead.
Southampton - ". 21,000 dead.
Dundee - " . 19,000 dead.
Sunderland - " . 17,000 dead.
Middlesbrough - ". 16,000 dead.
Exeter - ". - 16,000 dead.
Nottingham - ". - 15,000 dead.
Bradford - ". - 14,000 dead.
Londonderry - ". - 8,000 dead.


Naval Command Centres (3/4) - Northwood, Plymouth, Pitreavie. Miss on Fort Southwick (Portsmouth) - 'Blue Burst' in English Channel.

Air Force Command Centres (3/3) - High Wycombe, Ruislip, Bawtry.

V-bomber Dispersal Bases (13/26) - Scampton, Waddington, Honnington (unused), Cottesmore, Coningsby, St Mawgan, Lossiemouth, Leeming, Gaydon, Manston, Leconfield, Pershore, , Bedford

United States Air Force Bases (4/6) - Alconbury, Bentwaters, Lakenheath, Wethersfield.

Naval Bases (4/5) - Gareloch, Rosyth, Devonport, Holy Loch

Comms and Radar - Rugby, Anthorn (NATO VLF stations). Inskip, Londonderry, Thurso (United States Navy LF stations). RAF Boulmer, RAF Bawdsey, RAF Saxa Vord, RAF Feltwell. BMEWS Flyingdales (Three Bombs)

Command Centres - CHANTICLEER recieved near miss - structure sound. Catterick gone. York Gone. Cambridge, Dover, Reading, Edinburgh, Armagh gone.

Overseas Possessions - Several Near Misses for Hong Kong - covered in fallout. Ascenscion safe. Falklands Safe. No communications w/ Gibraltar (- HMS Gloucester en route?)

Uncounted misses hit UK mainland - many villages small towns etc gone.

No word from Russia (sic) or the United States. France, Low Countries hit hard. Germany gone. East Europe (sic) gone. ( Volunteers prepping Yeovilton for reconaissance (sic) flights over West Europe - FUEL?)

Wait out.
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[Macragge1]

You mentioned Leeds on the casualty list twice- was this intentional?

Edited the typo - thanks for spotting it.

 

[Dan]

RAF Alconbury is on a hill, a decent sized hit will also take out RAF Upwood, (USAFE Medical facility servicing the UK), and RAF Molesworth, where the USAF Store cruise missiles and tactical warheads.

Also destroyed by a hit on Alconbury will be RAF Wyton, one of the home bases for RAF Canberra recon aircraft, and the town of Huntingdon.
Towns nearby St Neots will be severely damaged, Alconbury Weston, Upwood, Bury and Ramsey will probably be levelled, and any survivors dying of radiation sickness rather quickly if they are not incinerated by firestorms. Sawtry and Stilton will burn to the ground while Yaxley and Peterborough will suffer impact damage and some small fires on the southern edge.
However, this is the fun part, RAF Alconbury is surrounded by the fens, peat soil farms, mostly arable, so the heat blast will dry out the top layer causing it to turn to dust, if it's drawn up by the explosion as I suspect it would, you have a major source of radioactive fall out in the east midlands.

 

[Mackem89]

This is such a good timeline. I find it especially chilling because I live in Sunderland, and in 1984 my mam and her family were living in Jarrow, not far away from where the Hebburn blast would have hit. Seeing that Sunderland has been nuked as well, I'm pretty sure my dad is dead as well. Well that's me f**ked.

On the other hand, Newcastle United is gone and so is Thatcher. Every cloud and all that...

Keep up the good work

 

[Dunois]

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Telex 05.03.1984. CHANTICLEER. NATO eyes only. Europe Situation.

Memorandum - Sporadic communications established with French govt. onboard Aircraft Carrier 'Clemenceau'. Norwegian aircraft sighted and intercepted over Shetland Isles - pilot delivers sealed envelope asserting that Norwegian government continues and requesting information on NATO casualties and war aims. All information here is subject to change at any time. We are speculating - Whitelaw.

NATO (Europe)


France

Paris destroyed (casualties massive). Marseilles and Nice lost with much of French Fleet. Toulouse, Lyon, Lille, Grenoble, and Bordeaux recieved 'city-killers' - fallout on nearby agricultural areas reported bad. Flight over Le Havre reports huge amounts of smoke (PETRO-CHEMICALS?) in the air. French Govt. unsure about much of the interior - estimate heavy casualties. Clemenceau en route to French Guiana.

The French fleet is based at Toulon and Brest Macragge and I expect both cities to have been hit hard. Considering the amount of refineries in both Le Havre and Rouen the air is likely to be black with toxic smoke for a while. The same will be true of Marseilles if the device damaged the Berre-Fos petrochemical complex.
The French interior will be okay but the loss of Paris will have DRAMATIC effects on France due to the ultra centralised nature of the French state. The loss of Paris mean the loss of political, economical and cultural command and leadership. The industrial belt of Paris will be gone too with significant effects as well as the communication arteries across and around Paris. Long term however the loss of Paris might have positive effets as it could force France to decentralise and spread development around the country more as opposed to giving priority to Paris.
It is worth noting that by 1984 the bulk of France nuclear power stations were already online and all were built in rural areas (just in case). I certainly expect most of stations locaed along the Rhône to survive. If EDF already had a policy of stockpolling five years worth of Uranium supplies, then electricity is still available in France provided that damages to the network can be quickly repaired.
It is actually quite weird to see that the least vulnerable power source in case for nuclear attack is nuclear power itself ...

 

[OwainGlyndwr]

This is my first post on AH... I have just finished reading this thread (sic) and have to say that I am mightily impressed... I worked for the County Emergency Planning Officer for West Glamorgan (as a spotty 18 year old) in the mid 80's and saw first hand the interior of the county's 'Bunker', an old 50's radar station situated on the seafront of Swansea. This facility was seriously outdated, the equipment available was archaic (WW1 gas masks etc) although the CEPO wanted to modernise everything, the local authority blocked everything as it was too expensive... funny, you never see a poor councillor do you. In conclusion, if Swansea and West Glamorgan were so poorly prepared... what does it bode for the rest of the country a la 80's.?

Fantastic thread, will watch this intently...

 

[Macragge1]

VIII - The Importance of Your Radio

So be sure to get some spare batteries.

The British Broadcasting Corporation's wartime role was greatly expanded during the Transition-to-War period of late 1983 and early 1984. With war seeming inevitable, it was decided that the BBC should take on a greater role in maintaining morale following an attack. This was a return to the role that the Wartime Broadcasting Service had been formed to perform during the 1950s. Rather than simply broadcast short bursts of information for a few minutes on the hour, a decision was made that the Corporation would attempt to broadcast as often as possible in order to 'preserve national morale'.

The move was not universally popular - several high profile personalities, as well as technical and support staff, protested vehemently. The strongest argument put forward by the 'anti-wartime' faction was the fact that survivors would only have enough batteries for limited listening - therefore, airtime should be restricted to news and important announcements. Proponents of a renewed wartime service were eventually forced into a settlement whereby ten minutes on the hour, every hour, was reserved for local announcements (where available) about work placements or fallout levels.

As the world spiralled further and further towards conflict, the BBC slowly but surely phased out peacetime programming - each day, more and more time was allotted to news programming and public safety announcements. This creeping towards oblivion allowed the BBC to greatly augment their emergency facility at Wood Norton - as more and more programmes fell off the air, it was possible for more and more equipment and personnel to be moved into safety. All those involved were volunteers, although encouragement was provided by the fact that the BBC bought out every single spare room in nearby Tewkesbury and Pershore for the dependents of those working at Wood Norton. For workers living mostly in major targets such as London and Birmingham (even those previously fighting for the 'anti-wartime' faction), this was a very difficult proposition to pass up.

When it came, the same message was shot into the boiling air every minute for 168 hours - '...stay tuned to this wavelength, stay calm, and stay in your own homes.'

*

The DJ pushed up a dial and hit a button - '...again, an absolutely excellent track. Next up, here's Gloria Gaynor with her disco classic 'I Will Survive' ' - press button. Piano riff. The DJ span around in his chair and cracked his fingers. The studio wasn't a patch on London, he thought, but it beat the hell of some of the dives he'd broadcast from during the pirate days. A sip of coffee - Christ, call it what you want - coffee that ain't. Through the glass, the DJ noticed that the Producer appeared to be having an embolism. He smiled and waved. The door flies open - 'What the fuck is this! I will bloody survive? Have you even read the fucking guidelines - no. fucking. frivolity!'. Inside the DJ, something decided to snap - 'What am I meant to play, then? Handel's fucking Death March? Or no, even better, let's just play the America message. I could just put it on loop and fuck off home!' The DJ slumped back into his seat. 'Look, man, it's not you. These guidelines though, they're just such bullshit. It's escapism - that's all I'm trying to give them. It's absolutely Fawlty Towers on my slot - don't mention the war. They're gonna be reminded every time they look out the window, every time their stomach growls, every time they throw up. I'm just trying to take them away from there.' Were it not so dim in the studio, the Producer would have noticed the bags and lines that now threw themselves across the DJ's face. He wasn't the youngest, but he'd always had a spark - he was carrying the fire and paying for it. It had been especially hard over the last few days (by now, the station has been broadcasting for three weeks) - the DJ has been doing double shifts. The Children's Hour - God - the poor young presenter found in her quarters - white wine and valium - here's one she'd prepared earlier.

*

Some do listen - it's a time for memories - songs of places no-one will ever see again, sung by ghosts. Still, for a few minutes a day, there is something to distract people - a riff or a lyric that takes them back to a world where the buses still ran and one could see the sun. Some do listen, sat still in silent homes.

*

'And now it's almost time for the news and work where you are, ladies and gentlemen. But first, here's that hot new record by those up and coming Smiths boys from Manchester. I'll see you all again tomorrow - this is John Peel, signing off.

 

[PCSwitaj]

Comms and Radar - ...Thurso (United States Navy LF stations)...

And with that, both my father (USN SeaBee) and my mother (local from Reay) are lost to history...really eerie read, especially having talked to my Dad about base procedures in case of war.

Anyway, loving this TL, such a unique style and believe action. Keep it up, you have yet another follower!

EDIT: Of note for you, should you need it, is that a hit on the base here would almost certainly take care of Dunreay as well, the nuclear power plant located down the road by no more than five minutes. Could make the area messy for longer then most of the Highlands

 

[Stormy]

First I should say what a fine ATL this is. Quite chilling really. I should also say I haven't managed to get all the way through yet before I had something to say so I apologise for going over old ground.

If I use the square leg map as an approximation:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Square_leg.gif

Then most of the South West is fine though Salisbury might get it, interesting to see that Poole and Bournemouth are fine according to this estimate but Weymouth is toasted. Crewe seems spared a hit as well which is rather interesting.

Even given the relatively small total yield detonated in Devon and Cornwall (as per the Square_leg above) the prevalent wind in the UK is SW which causes a bit of a headache for fallout. Even if the largest towns of Cornwall, Devon, Somerset and Dorset are not directly targeted they will all be at the mercy of fallout from the weapons that detonate over Plymouth and RNAS Culdrose/RAF St Mawgan.

From a meteorological point of view there is practically nowhere to hide on this island. Perhaps the Lake District...

 

[Brky2020]

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Telex 05.03.1984. CHANTICLEER. NATO eyes only. Europe Situation.

...

I've noticed that it's taken quite a bit of time to find out this much information about Europe. I'm looking forward to finding out more.

Needless to say, as an American I'm also looking forward to finding out about the States. And the USSR and the rest of the world, as Britain learns about it herself.

A few questions if I may:

1) how did they find out about Hong Kong, as it is much farther away than Europe (which took months to get updates on)?

2) What percentage are you assuming for missed/misfired/dud Soviet missiles?

3) How have Australia, New Zealand and Canada been impacted by the exchange?

Excellent work thus far, Macragge. Please keep it up.

 

[Macragge1]

I've noticed that it's taken quite a bit of time to find out this much information about Europe. I'm looking forward to finding out more.

Needless to say, as an American I'm also looking forward to finding out about the States. And the USSR and the rest of the world, as Britain learns about it herself.

Given that lots of people seem interested, I'm going to explore the fate of the United States in a quasi-spin off (in this thread still) separate from the main narrative centred around the North-East of England.

For the time being, I'll just say that one of Britain's last V-Bombers is being pumped full of precious fuel and awaiting a special crew.

1) how did they find out about Hong Kong, as it is much farther away than Europe (which took months to get updates on)?

It's only actually been (by the 5th March i.e the Europe Update) a few weeks since H-Hour, which occurred on the 19th February - I reckoned that anything more than that would be an unrealistic period of absolute international isolation given the amount of communications equipment around.

As for Hong Kong, it just so happened that there was a Royal Navy submarine lurking in the China Sea that got ordered to investigate (as a British territory, it's naturally a priority) - the communications suite on these vessels is insane (after all, they were designed with a nuclear war in mind) and after a few tries, they managed to get through to the UK mainland.

2) What percentage are you assuming for missed/misfired/dud Soviet missiles?

If I'm honest, it's almost completely random (which I guess is a fitting enough way to do it) - if I had to push myself, I'd say about 10-15% of warheads dudded. Misses are different - most bombs targeting cities have done their job (given how hard missing would be), but there's a much larger 30-40% failure rate when attacking airfields and the like.

3) How have Australia, New Zealand and Canada been impacted by the exchange?

These countries have taken less hits, but unfortunately, have less targets in them - a few big cities - these have mostly been wiped out. There is a lot of clean ground still left in these nations, however, for those who survive.

Thanks for reading and thanks for the questions.

 

[stodge]

Excellent...

A chilling yet deeply moving thread - many thanks.

I'm nearly 50 years old and in the mid-1980s, I lived in Plymouth for a couple of years after graduation. My "war" plan was simple - hightail it down to my Grandparents' house in the far west of Cornwall with as many supplies as I could fit in an Austin Allegro.

With a few days or weeks lead-in time, there would be mass migration from the cities to more remote areas. Anyone with a house or cottage in Cornwall, Wales, the Lakes or the Highlands would try to get there. Without being elitist, this would be for the wealthier suburban families so the cities would see depopulation of the suburbs while the poorer inner urban areas would have people with nowhere else to go.

My grandfather's house had a cellar and I always imagined us holed up in there - quite big, once used as a store for a fishing boat. RAF St Mawgan is 35 miles away while RNAS Culdrose is maybe 15 miles. We would probably have been ok and with a prevailing SW'ly wind well placed to avoid immediate fallout.

I always thought the last hours would see groups of desperate refugees breaking in or attempting to break in to empty or abandoned holiday homes in order to find refuge.

After the attack would come the food shortages with a July or August population and little or no food until or unless central Government could provide.

Post-attack, there would be significant populations in reasonably clean areas - these would initially be fine but would come into conflict with the "locals" as supplies and resources ran out.

 

[Lemon flavoured]

Nice to see that John Peel survived, he does seem like the kind of person who would have volunteered for such a thing. Not really sure what else to add, except I perhaps shouldn't read this TL at gone midnight on a Friday night.

 

[modelcitizen]

Devastating. Chilling. Brilliant.

those three words work for me on this as well

 

[Macragge1]

those three words work for me on this as well

Thanks a lot!

Nice to see that John Peel survived, he does seem like the kind of person who would have volunteered for such a thing. Not really sure what else to add, except I perhaps shouldn't read this TL at gone midnight on a Friday night.

John Peel always seemed to me like a great guy - he championed pretty much every band of note for a good 20 years - so I decided he was going to get his crowning moment, apocalypse or not.

A chilling yet deeply moving thread - many thanks.

I'm nearly 50 years old and in the mid-1980s, I lived in Plymouth for a couple of years after graduation. My "war" plan was simple - hightail it down to my Grandparents' house in the far west of Cornwall with as many supplies as I could fit in an Austin Allegro.



I always thought the last hours would see groups of desperate refugees breaking in or attempting to break in to empty or abandoned holiday homes in order to find refuge.

After the attack would come the food shortages with a July or August population and little or no food until or unless central Government could provide.

Post-attack, there would be significant populations in reasonably clean areas - these would initially be fine but would come into conflict with the "locals" as supplies and resources ran out.

This is very true - due to the Transition - to - war legislation, a lot was done to try and stop refugees from flooding the 'safe' areas - Chieftain tanks blocked parts of the M1, for example, whilst local commissioners (once given powers) did their best to move police to the county borders - still, desperation meant that many people did make it. The last few minutes of the world were full of panic and smashed windows, refugees attempting to crawl into anything that would shield them not only from the fallout, but from the wind and cold that goes with a British February.

Now that food is being distributed, there is a huge problem for these people - they simply cannot access it - this will, as you say, lead to a huge amount of turmoil later on.