Plausibility check: Falklands War a standard left vs right conflcit

OTL, the Falklands War of 1982 didn't fit the parameters of the ongoing Cold War, as it was a conflict between two conservative governments(albeit of rather different governing styles!), who under most circumstances would have been at least comfortable with, if not outright ecstatic about, each other's existence. But, as we all know, they managed to get into a bloody, basically non-ideological war fought over territory and national pride, eventually leading to the collapse of one government, and the re-election of the other.

So, is there a way to make the Falklands a war between two adversaries diametrically opposed on ideology and/or Cold War alignment? The most obvious thing to do would be to reverse the ideology of one side, while keeping the other the same. So for example...

...hard-left Argentina vs. Thatcherite Britain. Maybe the Peronists stay in power into the 1980s, with the leftists in ascendancy, and grab the islands much for the same reasons as the generals did, but with more rhetorical focus on typical third-worldist, anti-colonialist themes? They'd likely get portrayed by the UK Tories and Fleet Street as a cross between the IRA and Fidel Castro. They might also garner some support from the shallower sections of the international anti-imperialist movement, and the Soviets would probably throw in a token "Hip hip hooray". The USA's support for Britain in the conflict would fit the Peronist narrative well here.

OR...

...hard-right Argentina vs. left-wing UK. Labour wins in '79, and maybe by '82 someone more left-wing than Callaghan becomes PM, exciting a lot of the party's militant base(is it too much to wish for Michael Foot under the circumstances)? So, we've got perceived radicalism(in the good sense of the word) running the show in Westminster, and the grassroots maybe finds it easy to rally around the government against a bunch of old-school Latin American fascist tinpots. In this instance, the initial dithering in Reagan's cabinet gets portrayed by the British left as major backing for Argentina's position, though the government, still grudgingly commited to NATO and the Special Relationship, does not openly endorse this view.

The OTL USSR's quiet support for Argentina might overflow into the British far-left, but in the second scenario, with the left in power, they probably wouldn't have much choice but to defend the islands, and portraying it as a fight against fascist militarism will appeal to both ends of the political spectrum, ie. the Finest Hour cultists on the right, and the street-fighting anti-fascists on the left.

So, is any of this at all plausible?
 

Khanzeer

Banned
putting politics aside can we have

1-Mig-27 armed with PGM for shore based argentine navy
2-Tu-128 long range interceptors on constant patrol shooting down unescorted british vulcans and patrol planes
3-eight foxtrot /novemeber subs argentinian navy
4-Mi-24 based on Falklands bases
5- Cuban expeditionary force lands in Falklands to Bolster the new leftist argentinan govt
 
Military stuff is one of my numerous weak points, so I'm not sure what is being implied in numbers 1 to 4 of your list.

As for 5, obviously you're suggesting that Cuba sides with Argentina and intervenes. Neat idea, but I'd wager that it would be pretty risky for a country so close to Florida(and with the particular recent history that Cuba has) to openly fight alongside a country that has attacked territory controlled by a NATO country.
 
@overoceans Peronism isn't left wing enought for they to accept Soviet influence, as Peron said:

"The White House and the Kremlin speaks the same language, and it is not English or russian, but imperialism."

However the succession of coups and economical recession led Argentina to be so broken and disfuncional that they really had a small risk of falling to a socialist revolution, that is why the last dictatorship of Videla and Galtieri were so crushing brutal, and so a possible PoD is by having the dictatorship to collapse due internal fighting and the Communists seizing power. That's not very plausible, as someone said on the forum the question was not if they would take power (as it would be extremely difficult), but how much damage they could do before being crushed.
 
The first scenario is very unlikely. Peronism was much less left-wing in its second period of governance (1973-1976) than in its first. The reason for this is that in the dictatorship (1966-1973) that preceded the three years of democratic government I listed above was full of armed resistance by terrorist groups with differing ideologies. Peronism had been banned since 1955 when Peron was deposed, so the Peronist groups had an even longer history.

The problem is that the terrorist peronist group (Montoneros) was not only Peronist but also socialist. They believed peronism was the way to socialism.

When Peron came back from exile and won the Sept 1973 elections, this group carried on with their actions as if nothing had changed (their pretext before was to fight until democracy was re-established. They killed Peron's close ally and friend Rucci. This is when he ultimately decided to pick the side of the anticommunist peronists over the socialist peronists.

I don't believe you can achieve a left wing Argentina with a PoD later than late 1973, for your first option.
 
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In the early 80s, before the Falklands war, many on the far left were rightly critical of the Argentinian Junta. However, once the Argentinians invaded the Falklands, many on far left suddenly became openly supportive of the Junta as they were now "fighting imperialism".

"Oceania is at war with Eurasia. It has always been at war with Eurasia."
 
In the early 80s, before the Falklands war, many on the far left were rightly critical of the Argentinian Junta. However, once the Argentinians invaded the Falklands, many on far left suddenly became openly supportive of the Junta as they were now "fighting imperialism".

"Oceania is at war with Eurasia. It has always been at war with Eurasia."

And of course there was the famous "British left waffles on the Falklands", which in addition to being remembered as a great unintentional pun, was also a real headline.

I've never known what it was that the British left was waffling over. Did they share the analysis that keeping the islands British was an imperialistic endeavour?
 
@overoceans Peronism isn't left wing enought for they to accept Soviet influence, as Peron said:

"The White House and the Kremlin speaks the same language, and it is not English or russian, but imperialism."

However the succession of coups and economical recession led Argentina to be so broken and disfuncional that they really had a small risk of falling to a socialist revolution, that is why the last dictatorship of Videla and Galtieri were so crushing brutal, and so a possible PoD is by having the dictatorship to collapse due internal fighting and the Communists seizing power. That's not very plausible, as someone said on the forum the question was not if they would take power (as it would be extremely difficult), but how much damage they could do before being crushed.

Yeah, that's why I posited a left-peronist Argentina, not a Communist one, and stated that the USSR's support would be mostly token, albeit with maybe a bit more ideological flourish than what it mustered up in real-life. IOTL, non-aligned, vaguely left-wing regimes(eg. Nyerere in Tanzania) often got characterized by western conservatives as almost no better than the commies, and I'd imagine the Soviets were happy to go along with the conflation, for their own purposes. ("See? The whole third-world looks to us for inspiration!")

Though, going by thomasqs' analysis, even a left-peronist regime in Argentina might have been too tall an order.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
Military stuff is one of my numerous weak points, so I'm not sure what is being implied in numbers 1 to 4 of your list.

As for 5, obviously you're suggesting that Cuba sides with Argentina and intervenes. Neat idea, but I'd wager that it would be pretty risky for a country so close to Florida(and with the particular recent history that Cuba has) to openly fight alongside a country that has attacked territory controlled by a NATO country.
Ostentatiously they are going to defend Argentinean land from british imperialism
Something hugely popular in latin America I hope...probably much more than angola
 

Khanzeer

Banned
In the early 80s, before the Falklands war, many on the far left were rightly critical of the Argentinian Junta. However, once the Argentinians invaded the Falklands, many on far left suddenly became openly supportive of the Junta as they were now "fighting imperialism".

"Oceania is at war with Eurasia. It has always been at war with Eurasia."
Very typical
Same thing will happen US invade Iran
Offtopic
 
In the early 80s, before the Falklands war, many on the far left were rightly critical of the Argentinian Junta. However, once the Argentinians invaded the Falklands, many on far left suddenly became openly supportive of the Junta as they were now "fighting imperialism.
Tankies, tankies everywhere. This is one of several cases of doublthink that turned me from left to centre right.
 
...hard-right Argentina vs. left-wing UK. Labour wins in '79, and maybe by '82 someone more left-wing than Callaghan becomes PM, exciting a lot of the party's militant base (is it too much to wish for Michael Foot under the circumstances)? So, we've got perceived radicalism (in the good sense of the word) running the show in Westminster, and the grassroots maybe finds it easy to rally around the government against a bunch of old-school Latin American fascist tinpots. In this instance, the initial dithering in Reagan's cabinet gets portrayed by the British left as major backing for Argentina's position, though the government, still grudgingly commited to NATO and the Special Relationship, does not openly endorse this view.
Anthony Wedgewood Benn would be a better Prime Minister for the purposes of this threat than Michael Foot.

IIRC Foot backed Mrs Thatcher to the hilt over the Falklands War and Tony Benn was one of the most vociferous critics.

The POD would have to be that the Labour Party wins the 1979 General Election and all the extra MPs are left wingers. James Callaghan still steps down at the end of 1980 and Benn is elected to replace him as party leader and by extension ITTL Prime Minister.
 
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CalBear

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putting politics aside can we have

1-Mig-27 armed with PGM for shore based argentine navy
2-Tu-128 long range interceptors on constant patrol shooting down unescorted british vulcans and patrol planes
3-eight foxtrot /novemeber subs argentinian navy
4-Mi-24 based on Falklands bases
5- Cuban expeditionary force lands in Falklands to Bolster the new leftist argentinan govt

Probably not most of it. Also, since the question is based on a classic Cold War scenario, it would seem to be impossible to put aside politics. Everything in the Cold War was politics.

1. The Soviets didn't even provide Cuba with Mig-27s (in fact the Soviets only sold MiG-27s to India. Russia sold some to Sri Lanka in 2000). Maybe the Su-7. All it takes is money. Large stacks.

2. They NEVER exported the Tu-128, not even to Pact militaries. Mig-21s, assuming they want to enrage the U.S.

3. Foxtrots, maybe, assuming the Argentinians have a big enough bank account (contrary to popular opinion, Moscow SOLD weapon systems, didn't give them away, not even Cuba was pure charity (AKs? Sure. RPG? No problem We support you in the struggle comrade. Submarines? Will you be paying in gold or U.S. Dollars/British Pounds/etc. hard currencies?) and they are willing to see the U.S. crank up support that hits Moscow in a sensitive spot. Novembers? Close to Zero probability. Not only is support of an SSN hellishly expensive, well beyond the means of just about anyone in South America, but the Novembers were very much still part of the Soviet first line in 1982.

4. Possibly. Unlike the other equipment, the Soviets sold Hinds like crazy. Relatively cheap too.

5. Why, did Moscow decide that it was time to start WW III? That is what happens when CUBAN (i.e. Soviet, and everyone knows it) forces land on BRITISH SOIL. UK & U.S. WILL evict them (Reagan is POTUS. Ronnie don't play that &^#$). Cubans either get wiped out or Moscow intervenes with an entirely inadequate surface fleet or Moscow and the U.S. wind up with missiles warmed up, bombers on +5 or at Fail Safe and everyone on the Planet curls up in a ball whilst making little animal noises.

A major problem with this is that all this sort of arms build-up achieves is a fully alerted UK (and USN). It almost certainly results in the British stationing a large force on The Islands, both ground troops and RAF, along with SAM and an actually useful RN presence (this might be the sort of threat that convinces the Government not to scrap the CATOBAR carriers). Probably draws considerable U.S. interest as well.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
Yes, this was.

Question is, why would you post it since you knew it was off topic?
All shades of political spectrum unite against a common external enemy to maintain their credibility at home , this is as true today as it was at anytime in history
Sorry if it was offtopic
 

Khanzeer

Banned
Probably not most of it. Also, since the question is based on a classic Cold War scenario, it would seem to be impossible to put aside politics. Everything in the Cold War was politics.

1. The Soviets didn't even provide Cuba with Mig-27s (in fact the Soviets only sold MiG-27s to India. Russia sold some to Sri Lanka in 2000). Maybe the Su-7. All it takes is money. Large stacks.

2. They NEVER exported the Tu-128, not even to Pact militaries. Mig-21s, assuming they want to enrage the U.S.

3. Foxtrots, maybe, assuming the Argentinians have a big enough bank account (contrary to popular opinion, Moscow SOLD weapon systems, didn't give them away, not even Cuba was pure charity (AKs? Sure. RPG? No problem We support you in the struggle comrade. Submarines? Will you be paying in gold or U.S. Dollars/British Pounds/etc. hard currencies?) and they are willing to see the U.S. crank up support that hits Moscow in a sensitive spot. Novembers? Close to Zero probability. Not only is support of an SSN hellishly expensive, well beyond the means of just about anyone in South America, but the Novembers were very much still part of the Soviet first line in 1982.

4. Possibly. Unlike the other equipment, the Soviets sold Hinds like crazy. Relatively cheap too.

5. Why, did Moscow decide that it was time to start WW III? That is what happens when CUBAN (i.e. Soviet, and everyone knows it) forces land on BRITISH SOIL. UK & U.S. WILL evict them (Reagan is POTUS. Ronnie don't play that &^#$). Cubans either get wiped out or Moscow intervenes with an entirely inadequate surface fleet or Moscow and the U.S. wind up with missiles warmed up, bombers on +5 or at Fail Safe and everyone on the Planet curls up in a ball whilst making little animal noises.

A major problem with this is that all this sort of arms build-up achieves is a fully alerted UK (and USN). It almost certainly results in the British stationing a large force on The Islands, both ground troops and RAF, along with SAM and an actually useful RN presence (this might be the sort of threat that convinces the Government not to scrap the CATOBAR carriers). Probably draws considerable U.S. interest as well.
1 issue is range here , su7 is useless in that capacity.It cannot carry 100 rounds of its cannon from Argentina to Falklands probably.
A handful of Mig27 which is less sophisticated than those given to 16th AA or VVS.In many cases soviet did provide frontline equipment in small quantities when it could be leveraged politically.Maybe mig23BN ? It can still carry some PGM ?

2 again mig21 is too short legged and tu128 is the kind of long range patrol interceptor needed given the vast distances in the south Atlantic.Esp when bombers will likely have no escorts

3 agreed SsN are expensive maybe leasing a couple
..November is first line in 1982 ?
With Charlie, echo II , victor I and II that is over 50 SsN and SSGN ? Not to mention the 14 DE tango class
Leasing a couple of Novembers if they can sink a RN carrier is a tempting target.Yes I know Soviets SOLD their equipment why would they hand it out for free ? Esp since a lot of their allies were less than reliable

5 Moscow or Washington will not start ww3 over cuba
Most likely scenario if you want to bring politics into this is that an over zealous Castro sent a contingent of Cubans to falklands the Soviet support him initially and then under American pressure completely back down and withdraw support and that unit is completely crushed.
 
Anthony Wedgewood Benn would be a better Prime Minister for the purposes of this threat than Michael Foot.

IIRC Foot backed Mrs Thatcher to the hilt over the Falklands War and Tony Benn was one of the most vociferous critics.

The POD would have to be that the Labour Party wins the 1979 General Election and all the extra MPs are left wingers. James Callaghan still steps down at the end of 1980 and Benn is elected to replace him as party leader and by extension ITTL Prime Minister.

Actually, I think Foot is the better choice than Benn, given what you've written: Remember, I'm looking for a scenario where left-wing Labourites are in power, and they PROCEED with the defense of the Falkalnd Islands. If Foot supported Thatcher on that issue OTL, that makes him the perfect leftist PM for this scenario.

What were Benn's reasons for opposing Thatcher?

(And just to be clear, Benn criticized Thatcher because he was AGAINST going to war, right?)
 

CalBear

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Donor
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All shades of political spectrum unite against a common external enemy to maintain their credibility at home , this is as true today as it was at anytime in history
Sorry if it was offtopic
You said it was off-topic.
1 issue is range here , su7 is useless in that capacity.It cannot carry 100 rounds of its cannon from Argentina to Falklands probably.
A handful of Mig27 which is less sophisticated than those given to 16th AA or VVS.In many cases soviet did provide frontline equipment in small quantities when it could be leveraged politically.Maybe mig23BN ? It can still carry some PGM ?

2 again mig21 is too short legged and tu128 is the kind of long range patrol interceptor needed given the vast distances in the south Atlantic.Esp when bombers will likely have no escorts

3 agreed SsN are expensive maybe leasing a couple
..November is first line in 1982 ?
With Charlie, echo II , victor I and II that is over 50 SsN and SSGN ? Not to mention the 14 DE tango class
Leasing a couple of Novembers if they can sink a RN carrier is a tempting target.Yes I know Soviets SOLD their equipment why would they hand it out for free ? Esp since a lot of their allies were less than reliable

5 Moscow or Washington will not start ww3 over cuba
Most likely scenario if you want to bring politics into this is that an over zealous Castro sent a contingent of Cubans to falklands the Soviet support him initially and then under American pressure completely back down and withdraw support and that unit is completely crushed.
The items mentioned above would be correct were one using the scenario editor of the late, lamented, Harpoon computer game to build an interesting scenario. The problem here is that IRL there are very different rules.

The U.S. and UK look at what the Argentinian military is receiving. What possible missions would require a long range ground attack platform, a long range pure bomber interceptor (the Fiddlier was single role aircraft, completely helpless against another fighter, a U.S. version would have been a B-58 with an intercept radar), and a number of diesel electric boats (or even a couple SSN). The Falklands stick out like a sore thumb, along with the Southern Cone nations (all of whom are going to come to see Uncle PDQ, hat in hand). The U.S. reluctance to provide supersonic fighters to South American countries evaporates in the blink of an eye (champagne flows freely in the Board rooms of McDonald-Douglas, Lockheed, Northrop, and even Vought) as the U.S. stops moving F4, F8, and F-104 to the deserts of Arizona and starts to sell them, at fire sale prices, to South American Allies. Raytheon stock trebles as the Hawk SAM suddenly becomes a hot export item.

The UK deploys at least a squadron of F4 and probably a squadron of Buccaneers to the Falklands, heavy battalion (maybe more) of troops, has a real standing naval patrol force and likely has at least one SSN on permanent patrol (if somehow the Argentinians manage to get hold of a couple Novembers, add at least one U.S. SSN, possible two). The Soviets kept the November as part of the Red Banner and Northern fleets into the early 1990s (last boat was decommissioned in 1991). As was often the case with the Soviets, they rode a horse until it died, most Novembers served until some sort of operational incident or other disaster took them out of service (the Russian Navy had FOXTROTS doing routine patrols well into the 1990s), when money is scarce you make do.
 
And of course there was the famous "British left waffles on the Falklands", which in addition to being remembered as a great unintentional pun, was also a real headline.

I've never known what it was that the British left was waffling over. Did they share the analysis that keeping the islands British was an imperialistic endeavour?
This reminds me of the time when Corbyn was asked if there was ever a war on which he was on Britain's side, and he had to think about it for a while, before saying the Second World War. When I heard that, my first impulse was that, sure, after June 22, 1941, he would have been on Britain's side. But seriously, it turns out that is exactly the stance that Corbyn's father had.
 
(And just to be clear, Benn criticized Thatcher because he was AGAINST going to war, right?)
He was against nearly everything that Mrs Thatcher did including going to war over the Falkland Islands.

IIRC he was against going to war in nearly all circumstances and IIRC in the case of the Falklands thought it should be solved by the United Nations.
 
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