Well, the title said all, let see than the Austrians suffer a worse defeated in the war(a more bloddier offensive or something similar by the Prussian,because the Italians will not do nothing after their navy was defeated in Lissa) who make their to make more demands(to much of Bismarck Dismay). I know thant the prussia want the little of 'Austria Silesia'(German Moravia), but something more bigger like The whole of Moravia or Bohemia?
PC:WI Prussia Annex Land from Austria in their victory in 1866
- Thread starter Nivek
- Start date
Either:
[1] The French, who were desperately scrambling to enter before the peace deal went through, actually intervene. Prussia is holding the north of Germany and Bohemia; Austria and France are holding Austria and France; Prussia gets knocked unconscious with a shoe and curb-stomped.
The interesting bit here is that Europe spends the 19th century increasingly worried about French dominance. Probably they just break bits off Prussia as independent states and use their position to dominate Germany. Some annexation is possible, I suppose. Given their relationship with Italy and Austria's weakened state, they could probably dictate a fait accomplit so long as it was not outrageous enough to force British or Russian hands.
[2] The French stay out for some reason, but get very friendly with Austria in the interim. In 1870, war breaks out between France and Prussia. Austria intervenes, which slows South German entry and leaves some states neutral. Prussia is knocked out with a shoe. See above.
[1] The French, who were desperately scrambling to enter before the peace deal went through, actually intervene. Prussia is holding the north of Germany and Bohemia; Austria and France are holding Austria and France; Prussia gets knocked unconscious with a shoe and curb-stomped.
The interesting bit here is that Europe spends the 19th century increasingly worried about French dominance. Probably they just break bits off Prussia as independent states and use their position to dominate Germany. Some annexation is possible, I suppose. Given their relationship with Italy and Austria's weakened state, they could probably dictate a fait accomplit so long as it was not outrageous enough to force British or Russian hands.
[2] The French stay out for some reason, but get very friendly with Austria in the interim. In 1870, war breaks out between France and Prussia. Austria intervenes, which slows South German entry and leaves some states neutral. Prussia is knocked out with a shoe. See above.
Eurofed
Banned
My "A different 1866" TL fully develops this scenario, starting with the PoD of Italy doing much better thanks to improved generalship (1866 Italian army and navy were more than capable of defeating the Austrians, if they had been provided more capable commanders). Italian victories at Custoza and Lissa prompt Italy to ask their full set of irredentist claims at the peace table, which in turn pushes the Prussian leadership (Bismarck is overruled on this by the King and the generals) to ask for Bohemia-Moravia. France threatens an intervention on the side of Austria to moderate their demands, so the allies reluctantly settle for Prussia getting OTL gains plus Saxony and Sudetenland, and Italy getting Veneto, Trento, and Gorizia-Gradisca. Animosity between Prussia-Italy and France quickly grows because of this, and the Franco-Prussian-Italian war occurs in 1867 over the issues of Rome and Luxemburg. France is curbstomped ever more decisively than OTL, with Germany (which forms as IOTL) getting Alsace, Lorraine (all of it), Luxemburg, Italy getting Savoy, Nice, Corsica, and French Riviera. Austria attempts to join France, but it has been dealt a fatal blow by the two-front 1866 defeat, agitation by German nationalists and severe internal instability prevents the intervention and the empire collapses in the early 1870s, after a bungled attempt at Ausgleich, forcing Bismarck to accept the necessity of the partition of Austria. Denmark unwisely joins Napoleon III and is crushed and annexed by Germany. Harsh defeat and peace triggers a worse Commune uprising in France and the later regime change to a reactionary-protofascist dictatorship with the Bourbon king as figurehead. Bourbon France supports a Carlist coup in Spain and the formation of a France-Spain union. The Pope is forced to flee Rome because of the war, becoming even more reactionary than OTL, and making papal infallibility even more controversial. A wide schism occurs in the Catholic Church between the progressist wing supported by Germany-Italy and the reactionary wing supported by the Pope and France-Spain.
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I think the POD of the Italians doing better in the war is the best. Then, they will be in a position to demand more territory from Austria (Trent? Dalmatia?), meaning that Prussia will want more to compensate. They will, at least, demand the Austrian bit of Silesia. They likely will demand Austrian Silesia, a free hand to annex Saxony, and the bits of the Sudetenland (for lack of a better name) that border Prussia and Saxony. All of Bohemia and Moravia would be too much, mostly because it would probably incite French intervention. Even this much gain might require giving up Luxembourg in exchange for French neutrality.
What happens afterwards is anyone's guess. I think that Austrian-Prussian relations will be pretty cold afterwards due to the territory loss, probably leading to better Prusso-Italian relations out of 'an enemy of my enemy is my friend'. Possibly, Italy will participate in TTL's Franco-Prussian War. France will be very nervous about this new alliance threatening its entire western border,such a war is virtually guaranteed to happen. Maybe over Rome, or Luxembourg, or the Spanish throne as OTL? Prussia will likely win, and get Alsace-Lorraine and form Germany, and Italy might join for Nice and Savoy.
By TTL's WW1, I could see rival alliance systems of Germany-Italy-Russia vs. France-Austria-Britain-Japan. The US and the Ottomans are likely to be pro-*Entente neutrals. Either could enter *WW1.
What happens afterwards is anyone's guess. I think that Austrian-Prussian relations will be pretty cold afterwards due to the territory loss, probably leading to better Prusso-Italian relations out of 'an enemy of my enemy is my friend'. Possibly, Italy will participate in TTL's Franco-Prussian War. France will be very nervous about this new alliance threatening its entire western border,such a war is virtually guaranteed to happen. Maybe over Rome, or Luxembourg, or the Spanish throne as OTL? Prussia will likely win, and get Alsace-Lorraine and form Germany, and Italy might join for Nice and Savoy.
By TTL's WW1, I could see rival alliance systems of Germany-Italy-Russia vs. France-Austria-Britain-Japan. The US and the Ottomans are likely to be pro-*Entente neutrals. Either could enter *WW1.
Why would Prussia get stomped in 1870?
Even OTL, she left a sizeable army on the Austrian border, just in case Franz Josef got any ideas. So Austrian intervention (probably slow off the mark in any event) won't have much immediate effect. Things probably go much the same until Sedan, but after that the German army turns east to stomp the Austrians.
However, it may mean that Prussia can't spare the troops to besiege Paris, so if the Republican government acts fast (and is willing to leave Austria to her fate) it can get a better peace treaty than OTL.
Well, question is whether the Southern German states would join Prussia to fight both France and Austria. I'd doubt that. On the other side, the Italians might join. I'd rather agree that the Prussians would not be defeated, but I wouldn't be sure about that.
Nevertheless, this is a really interesting question. Bismarck made a lenient peace with Austria to keep them out of a future war and not to drive them into French arms. With this, he succeeded perfectly. On the long-term, however, Italy would be a good Ally against France. And Russia would be a better Ally than the Austrians, so alienating the Austrians should provide the base for a stable alliance of Prussia/Germany with Russia and Italy (and, as it is against Austria, also with Serbia, Montenegro and Romania). I always believed that this system should have worked better for Germany. The problem is, though, as stated before, that alienating Austria in 1866 might butterfly away the foundation of the Second Reich in 1871...
Well, they were committed to supporting Prussia by their treaties of alliance with her. They might be tempted to break these if they were absolutely certain that Prussia would lose, but given the fate of Hanover et al, they'd need to be very certain indeed to be prepared to risk it.
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Eurofed
Banned
Much like Prussia is going to ask for Bohemia-Moravia and settle for Saxony and Sudetenland under threat of French intervention, so Italy is going to ask for the Trento-Istria-Dalmatia package and settle for Trento and Gorizia-Gradisca under the same circumstances.
Not immediately, since Luxemburg is a Dutch possession. Rather, Bismarck would make insincere promises to France of Prussian (and Italian) support for French annexation of Luxemburg, which he would renege when Paris makes a public offer to purchase it. Another obvious casus belli, besides the parallel Rome issue, between France and the Prusso-Italian team.
ITTL Italian partecipation in the war against France is pretty much guaranteed, since both Prussia and Italy would have seen that the alliance works and would confirm it. Moreover, Italy has its own issue of contention with France over Rome, and ITTL it would be bolder in claiming it, giving more support to Garibaldi's attempt to conquer it. In all likelihood, Rome and Luxemburg get wrapped as a casus belli.
It is quite unlikely that America would join the *Entente in this *ww1, for various reasons. The *Triple Alliance would almost surely pick an "Austria First" strategy and forsake *Plan Schliffen. If anything, it is France that is likely to violate the neutrality of Belgium, Switzerland, or both, in an atempt to connect with harried Austria bypassing German and Italian defenses. Moreover, with Russian foodstuffs available, Germany would not fear UK blockade and would be in no hurry to use unrestricted submarine warfare despite the objections of America. If anything, British blockade is going to be the main issue of contention for America. Last but not least, the lobbies of German-Americans, Italian-Americans, Irish-Americans, and Russian-Americans would be united against such a belligerance. Good luck for the US pro-Entente lobbies convincing the American public to join the war in such a situation.
However, a *ww1 that pits the *Triple Alliance of Germany, Italy, and Russia vs. the *Entente of France, Austria, Britain, Turkey, and Japan is wholly in the cards. If Austria survives, that is. That is far from sure, or even likely. ITTL the Habsburg dynasty and its army would suffer a crushing two-front humiliation and an harsher peace, on top of the '59 one, which is going to make the Empire rather more unstable than OTL. Magyars and Czechs are going to be more restless than OTL, and the Ausgleich's OTL success was a relatively close thing.
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Eurofed
Banned
Not only that. The French declaration of war created a huge wave of pro-Prussian German nationalist patriotism in Southern Germany, which is still going to happen even if Austria makes moves to join the French. Rather, German patriotism is going to affect Austria, too, and make its partecipation in the war even more troublesome.
Moreover, it is rather questionable that Austria would be in any real shape to join the F-P-I war. It would have its army still in shambles from the total 1866 defeat, the prestige of the dynasty scraping the bottom of the barrel, German nationalists up in arms against "betrayal" of the German nation, Magyars and Czechs up in arms for their national rights, no Ausgleich, since ITTL in all likelihood the war occurs in 1867 with Italian partecipation about Luxemburg and Rome. In all likelihood, if Franz Joseph really goes for another military adventure, it would be the end of his empire and he would soon join Napoleon III in exile.
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Eurofed
Banned
Even in the unlikely case that TTL Austria is in any shape to seek a rematch in 1867 without a revolution in Budapest, Italy would be a player, too. The Prussian-Italian team would likely have enough troops to fight a two-front war without having to give France a lenient peace.
I'm pretty sure it means "Plausibility Check".
@Eurofed:
1: It doesn't matter that much anyway, Prussia still gets the Sudeten and Saxony. I was assuming that whoever was negotiating for Prussia would know what would be too far and provoke French intervention, but it doesn't really matter.
2: This was what I was trying to say, but I wasn't clear. My apologies. This is the situation I was trying to portray.
3: If the casus belli is Rome only or Rome and Luxembourg together, then Italy might join. Otherwise, they might be cautious about attacking the premier land power in Europe, or so everyone thinks. They have just been through a major war, and their country is barely 10 years old and by no means unified. They need time to consolidate. After Sedan or an equivalent, Italy will almost certainly join for Nice, Savoy, and Corsica if they can pull it off. I can't see Prussia taking more than it did OTL, since I think France will sue for peace after Italy joins. Austria will be in no shape to join the war.
4: I think the US will stay out of a *WW1, but I think they will be fairly pro-*Entente. Yes, you have all those lobbies you mentioned, but you also have Britain as the US's largest trading partner, and the trading interests have lobbyists too. If Britain enacts a blockade of Germany, I think that relations will steadily go downhill, as OTL. This time, there will be no German USW to save relations, since Germany can get all the food it needs from Russia.
I think Austria will survive to WW1. There will be a worse version of OTL's Augsleich, but it will survive. One result might be a Triple Monarchy forming after the war with Prussia, resulting in Austria-Hungary-Bohemia.
Now, whether it survives WW1 is another question. Austria, attacked on three (or 4, if there's a Serbia in the south) sides, will fall very quickly. After that, Germany's full strength can be concentrated against France. France will take longer, but they will, most likely, fall as well. After that, it's Britain, Turkey, and Japan vs. Russia, Italy, and Germany. Turkey will fall fairly quickly, and Japan will follow before hordes of Russians start flooding into Manchuria. Britain will be forced to surrender by this point.
This scenario assumes that a lot of the events leading up to WW1, like the Russo-Japanese War, happen more or less as OTL, which is by no means assured.
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
Prussia didn't have annexations in their war aims. If they had wanted to impose these, they very well could have.
They didn't have annexations as a war aim because Bismarck didn't want to push the Austrians into the arms of the French. In this, he succeeded wonderfully.
The scenario that we are talking about has better Italian performance in the war, leading to more Italian gains and the King overruling Bismarck and taking territory from Austria so Prussia and Italy get equal gains. After all, Prussia still will have done a lot of the heavy lifting in defeating Austria, so they should get just as much out of Austria as Italy got. The only limit is the threat of French intervention if they take too much.
Don't confuse my words
That is eurofed scenario who is not mine,the mine is prussia alone, Italy fare like OTL(good for a opponent who was being defeated in the main front and have not interest in a territory who was to become Italian anyway, Venetien). Here is Prussia who have a better breaktrought(a Magyar urprising was one of my first proporsal) and Bismarck have less face to afford not annexation in TTL, and for that make decent proposal for anexation(like some of Moravia, or maybe the whole of Bohemia to become in PU with prussia in NGF) because the sudesten was not a factual area for anexation(difficult to defend)..
please discuss about Prussia alone and not Eurofed scenario
Att
Nivek von Beldo
P.S. Eurofed, i send you a PM with my critics for you 1866 scenario, that never come to you?, well, i gonna put in the forum(have to rewrite that, because i lost when i reformated my PC thanks to virus), but in general was about the pausability of your scenario and the butterflies(Denmark is not so idiot like france, the Carlist are some reactionary fringe and intervenrtion of France in Spain will make to Britain to declare war to France like in the Napoleonics wars)
That is eurofed scenario who is not mine,the mine is prussia alone, Italy fare like OTL(good for a opponent who was being defeated in the main front and have not interest in a territory who was to become Italian anyway, Venetien). Here is Prussia who have a better breaktrought(a Magyar urprising was one of my first proporsal) and Bismarck have less face to afford not annexation in TTL, and for that make decent proposal for anexation(like some of Moravia, or maybe the whole of Bohemia to become in PU with prussia in NGF) because the sudesten was not a factual area for anexation(difficult to defend)..
please discuss about Prussia alone and not Eurofed scenario
Att
Nivek von Beldo
P.S. Eurofed, i send you a PM with my critics for you 1866 scenario, that never come to you?, well, i gonna put in the forum(have to rewrite that, because i lost when i reformated my PC thanks to virus), but in general was about the pausability of your scenario and the butterflies(Denmark is not so idiot like france, the Carlist are some reactionary fringe and intervenrtion of France in Spain will make to Britain to declare war to France like in the Napoleonics wars)
Not sure about that.
As I understand it (from Gordon Craig Germany 1866-1945) King Wilhelm would have liked Austrian Silesia, Reichenberg and the Egertal. That seems to roughly correspond with the northern and western parts of what a later generation called the "Sudetenland". I don't know offhand if that term was current in the 19C or whether it was just invented "for the occasion" in the 1930s, though I suspect the latter.
Of course Wilhelm also wanted to annex the KIngdom of Saxony, which makes it all more geographically sensible, though still a bit untidy. OTOH he was apparently willing to allow Hanover, Hesse and Nassau to remain separate states, though of course they must join the North German Condederation, and their current rulers, who had made war on Prussia, must abdicate in favour of their heirs apparent.
Napoleon III's attitude to all this is unclear, but in 1866 he was consistently reluctant to fight, so might well have swallowed it.
Eurofed
Banned
Ok, Nivek, I've posted my comments on the points you and imperialaquila made on my own PoD in my "different 1866" discussion thread, here.
I remain honestly persuaded that Italy doing better is the most plausible and likely way to let Prussia get greater gains in 1866. It neatly explains everything, why Prussia is driven and feels confident to claim more, why Bismarck is overruled on this, why Austria is forced to accept a worse peace, and why France does not intervene unless the victors make truly outrageous demands. And the PoD is quite plausible and easy, Italy just needs a couple better generals and admirals.
I remain honestly persuaded that Italy doing better is the most plausible and likely way to let Prussia get greater gains in 1866. It neatly explains everything, why Prussia is driven and feels confident to claim more, why Bismarck is overruled on this, why Austria is forced to accept a worse peace, and why France does not intervene unless the victors make truly outrageous demands. And the PoD is quite plausible and easy, Italy just needs a couple better generals and admirals.
J.D.Ward
Donor
Warning: Probably ASB suggestion follows.
Are there any circumstances in 1866 in which Prussia / Germany would want to annex the area around Braunau_am_Inn?
The consequence of this of course, apart from butterfly effects, is that Adolf Hitler is born in Germany. Does this rule out the Anschluss, or does Hitler still see union with Austria as the first stage in the expansion of the Greater German Reich ?
On the other hand, if the Schikelgrubers see themselves as Austrian and leave Germany for Austria, we then have the possibility of an an anti-German Adolf Hitler from a family driven from their home by German imperialism. There are so many swarms of butterflies here, but (in a timeline in whch history proceeds as in OTL with someone else taking Hitler's place), I do have this idea of Hitler as a hero of Austrian democracy, becoming Chancellor of Austria after World War II, this timeline's Karl_Renner.
Are there any circumstances in 1866 in which Prussia / Germany would want to annex the area around Braunau_am_Inn?
The consequence of this of course, apart from butterfly effects, is that Adolf Hitler is born in Germany. Does this rule out the Anschluss, or does Hitler still see union with Austria as the first stage in the expansion of the Greater German Reich ?
On the other hand, if the Schikelgrubers see themselves as Austrian and leave Germany for Austria, we then have the possibility of an an anti-German Adolf Hitler from a family driven from their home by German imperialism. There are so many swarms of butterflies here, but (in a timeline in whch history proceeds as in OTL with someone else taking Hitler's place), I do have this idea of Hitler as a hero of Austrian democracy, becoming Chancellor of Austria after World War II, this timeline's Karl_Renner.