Ottoman-Bulgarian-Albanian alliance in the Second Balkan War

ahmedali

Banned

According to the biography of the first Prime Minister of Albania, Ismail al-Qamli, al-Qamli, along with the government of the Union and Progress Party, led by the three pashas within the Ottoman Empire, planned to ally with Bulgaria against both Serbia and Greece, with the granting of Shamria and Kosovo to the Albanians, and to make Ahmed Izzat Pasha king of Albania.

It included a guerrilla war against the Serbs and the Greeks in the Albanian regions inside Serbia and Greece, led by Bekir Fikri.

The conspiracy failed because the Serbs discovered it, followed by trials for Lieutenant-Colonel Bekir Fikri, led by the International Criminal Court, which ended with a reduced sentence of Fikri's imprisonment and the resignation of Al-Qamli, followed by instability in Albania.

Let us suppose that the Serbs do not discover the plans of the Albanians, and when the second Balkan war begins, the Ottoman Empire attacks Greece instead of Bulgaria, which relieves the Bulgarians of the Ottoman front, and with the dispersed Greece they focus on the Serbs and Romans, and in the meantime he is expelled, Prince Wilhelm is removed from his throne and replaced by Ahmed Ezzat

How will things end, and if the Bulgarians and the Ottomans and albanian win, what will be their gains, and if they lose, what will they be punished?
 

ahmedali

Banned
Maybe Bulgaria returns Adrianople in exchange for Turkish support with the other goodies it wanted, in particular Salonica?
Yes, the Bulgarians can return it to the Ottomans in exchange for compensation elsewhere (as I said Salonica and Macedonia)

I see the possibility of the Ottomans regaining the Greek islands, including Crete, which is of course greater gains than OTL
 
I see the possibility of the Ottomans regaining the Greek islands, including Crete, which is of course greater gains than OTL
With what fleet? The Ottoman fleet was in no shape to face the Greek fleet, as proven twice during the First Balkan War. And they lost effective control of Crete in 1897, when they had actually won a war against Greece and could have marched onto Athens. In this scenario, they might aim for some of the eastern Aegean islands, but for that they need to contribute to the war in a meaningful way.
 

ahmedali

Banned
With what fleet? The Ottoman fleet was in no shape to face the Greek fleet, as proven twice during the First Balkan War. And they lost effective control of Crete in 1897, when they had actually won a war against Greece and could have marched onto Athens. In this scenario, they might aim for some of the eastern Aegean islands, but for that they need to contribute to the war in a meaningful way.
If the Greek army collapses thanks to Bulgaria, the Ottomans can be seen taking the Greek islands

With the arms of the armies of Greece and Serbia in the peace treaty

Without an Ottoman front and the dispersal of Greece, these Bulgarians will benefit greatly, as they focus on Serbia and Romanba


As I said, the Ottomans contributed to the establishment of the Albanian rebellion in the Greek-Serbian regions and arming them with the support of the Bulgarian armies
 
At the 2nd Balkan War time, the Ottomans and Greece no longer shared a land border. The Bulgarians would be essentially inviting a power they just warred against to bring troops in areas Bulgaria claimed as its own; it is not something I find very likely, or useful for that matter (I doubt the Ottomans, operating out of technically allied territory, would outperform the Bulgarians). Nor are the Albanians going to be able to do much, except throw away whatever goodwill they had with the Great Powers, in attempting (and failing) to do anything more than defensive guerillas.
Maybe the Ottomans do gain stuff at Bulgaria's expense, but Bulgaria doesn't really do better, and both Serbia and Greece take chunks of Albania they want. The Ottomans are in no shape or form to retake any island, let alone Crete, and no Great Power cares about that either.
 
Having started the second Balkan War against the recent allies, the Bulgarians quickly realized that the war was going badly for them. In such circumstances, the Bulgarians might well have thought of quickly concluding an alliance with the Ottoman Empire. Of course, the Bulgarians would have to cede the territories they occupied in Eastern Thrace. However, the Bulgarians did not cling to these territories much, since they were mainly inhabited by Turks.
Turkish troops will be sent to Western Thrace against Greece.
When Bulgaria has such a strong ally, Romania will not enter the war against the Bulgarians.
The result will be a Greek-Turkish front in Western Thrace and a Serbo-Bulgarian front in Macedonia. The Albanians will pull back part of the Serbian forces.
Neither side has overwhelming superiority, so the war must drag on. At least until 1914.
 
An alliance with the Turks would have been a rational decision for the Bulgarians in the summer of 1913. And such a decision could potentially lead to a more positive development of events. More positive in comparison with the actual result of events. Moreover, everyone can get a more positive result.

Suggested thread:

By June 1914 Bulgaria had acute problems with all its neighbors: Serbia, Greece, Romania and Turkey. In such circumstances, an alliance with the Turks would reduce the number of Bulgaria's opponents, and also give a strong ally against the remaining opponents. Such a decision within the framework of Real Politics would be a strong move. But the Turks, of course, will set their own union condition: the Bulgarians must cede the territories in Thrace occupied by the Bulgarian army in the 1st Balkan War. The Bulgarian leadership will not like this condition. And in general, the Bulgarians were going to cope with all the problems on their own.

On June 29, the Bulgarian army attacked Serbian and Greek positions in Macedonia. The attack immediately failed, the Serbian and Greek armies went on their offensive. The Bulgarians were unable to stop their offensive. Romania began to mobilize with the clear intention of getting into the war as another enemy of Bulgaria. The Turkish army was already concentrated, ready to attack the Bulgarians.

A catastrophe was brewing for Bulgaria. Perhaps the only possible way to avoid a catastrophe is to quickly conclude an alliance with the Turks. Of course, it was a pity to give Thrace to the Turks. But the situation posed a choice: to lose Macedonia or Thrace? (Bulgaria has really lost both Macedonia and Thrace). Bulgarians will choose Macedonia for themselves. Macedonia has been Bulgarian since the very beginning of Bulgaria, here were the centers of the ancient Bulgarian state.

In reality, the Bulgarian leadership hoped for Russia. But then Russia decided that it was in its interest not to risk anything for the sake of Bulgarians. Moreover, the Bulgarians started the war despite a direct warning from Russia. And if the war turned into complications for the Bulgarians, then Russia did not want to take responsibility for it. Russian diplomacy brought this position to the Bulgarians – but they simply did not perceive anything. And when the Romanians and Turks came out against Bulgaria, it came as a surprise to the Bulgarians. The Russian leadership verbally condemned Romania and Turkey, but did not take any action, because the actions could bring complications to Russia itself.

Another part of the Bulgarian leadership hoped for Austria-Hungary. Perhaps the Austro-Hungarians really wanted to help the Bulgarians. But in fact A-X did nothing. A-X also decided that it was not really worth risking for the Bulgarians.

That is, the Bulgarian leadership had to really assess the situation. Really evaluate, and not follow the illusions that someone will stand up for them. But this is just the most difficult thing: to make a decision not out of illusions, but from a sober analysis of the situation. Here is the most dubious place of the proposed thread of events.

But still, let's assume that the Bulgarian leadership realized that it is impossible to rely on the great powers. And we need to get out of a catastrophic situation ourselves. And on July 3-4, the Bulgarians turned to the Ottoman Empire with a proposal for an alliance. Or (as suggested TS) the Ottomans themselves had previously proposed an alliance; at first the Bulgarians did not respond, but when they realized that a catastrophe was brewing for them, they agreed.
 
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