ottoman attack Persian oil fields instead of Russia in 1914

[NATO1949]

Otomans stay on defensive agianst Russian in Caucasus mountain instead attack British owned oil fields in Iran.
British government owned controlling interest in British petroleum AKA anglo-persian oil company in 1914.
So ottoman attack south instead of East

British early success in Iraq as was because British assumed 10000 ottoman in Iraq but in reality ottoman had only 5000 men in Iraq.

Let say German ask ottoman to attack Persian oil fields . To draw Indian army to Iraq. Ottoman send in OTl two divisions from Iraq to Caucasus in late 1914.
So ottoman don't fight battle of sarikamish and lose 60.000 men in Dec 1914. That mean ottoman aren't desperate agianst Russian in Caucasus in 1915. Ottoman repel British in Basra. So that ottoman have large reserve force in 1916. In OTL ottoman send 7 divisions to central powers fronts in Europe those divisions
Where send to Macedonian front and to Eastern front and Romanian front.


So let's say ottoman send 20 instead of 7 divisions.
What is German reactions
bigger attack on verdun?

 

[BlondieBC]

• Well, going on the defensive in the Caucasus against Russia will prevent the horrible failure of OTL attack. A big win for the Ottomans.
• I really doubt the Ottomans can get 2 full divisions to southern Iraq quickly. But they can get some forces, and stall the front south of OTL position.
• UK will still take Basra, but will stall. Mostly likely reaction is India Corp goes to Iraq, not France. Entente probably loses about 1 division fighting power. This corp was very light for Western Front.

Butterflies are interesting, but you jump too far ahead for Verdun speculation. Much more likely effect is Russia pulls fewer divisions from the Ottoman front to deal with 1st and 2nd Army failures. This has important but hard to quantify benefit for A-H and Germany since probably the missing units are pulled off attacks into what is now Poland.

 

[NATO1949]

battle of tannenberg happen in September 1914 ottoman invasion of Russian Caucasus happen November 1914
ottoman had 3 divisions in Iraq area command in September 1914 they send two of three divisions north against Russia.
ottoman had strong force to stop British from landing in Basra. 15000 ottoman against 8000 British
what happen to gallipoli campaign if British failed to capture Basra ?

 

[BlondieBC]

battle of tannenberg happen in September 1914 ottoman invasion of Russian Caucasus happen November 1914
ottoman had 3 divisions in Iraq area command in September 1914 they send two of three divisions north against Russia.
ottoman had strong force to stop British from landing in Basra. 15000 ottoman against 8000 British
what happen to gallipoli campaign if British failed to capture Basra ?

Been a while since I look at the Order of Battle, but I think the divisions in Iraq went to Syria. Mosul to Aleppo. The units lost against Russia were in what is now Turkey from the beginning of the war until their loss in the winter snows. You should double check the city locations of the units you are listing. The Ottoman lines of authority may not geographically match OTL borders.

British have a strong navy. Naval gunfire plus surprise should get the UK land units ashore. The Ottomans units are also very light. IMO, the likely result of 15K Ottoman versus 8K British is that the British stall after capturing the port. i.e. They hang out in Basra proper, and the Ottomans stay just outside of UK naval gunfire. Strangely enough, the UK has shorter/easier logistic lines to Basra than the Ottomans do, if measure in travel time.

Gallipoli should happen as scheduled, unless you think the ANZAC forces will be diverted to Basra.

If the UK fails to take Basra, as you suggest, then the units will likely be evacuated from Basra to the Persian oil fields. The front then likely becomes a backwater. The Ottomans have logistical issues attacking Persia, and the UK has protected oil fields. Overall the war ends much as OTL, but Iraq may well be a part of Modern Turkey, whatever that is called.

 

[NATO1949]

when ottoman have manpower edge against British in Iraq late 1915 siege of kut happen. so ottoman probably hold on Basra.
if ottoman dint lost 60.000 men in Christmas offensive 1914 in caucus. probably ottoman can stalemate Russian army on Russian-ottoman border for rest of world war I.
what can central powers can do with 20 ottoman divisions in summer 1916.