Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

[Lascaris]

As mentioned above there is a Serbian Army active in Greece and due to the different political circumstances, the Chetniks would have to properly engage against the Germans. With airbases in Greece, it would be much easier to send even in 1942 a lot of supplies to them, similar to the amount Tito was receiving in 1944 through the italian airfields. I think everything that we have read so far, indicate that Yugoslavia will be partitioned between Croatia and Serbia.

As mentioned Athens and the Yugoslav Royal government WON'T be amused if the Chetniks stay idle. If the current leadership is not delivering, why...

Well, it kinda did in OTL. In Paris 1947 the Greeks wanted a border along the Maleshevo-Pirin-Rhodope-Arda Valley line. They had been attacked by Bulgaria three times during a single generation. The region had little economic value, basically added vital strategic depth.

At their maximum Greek territorial demands from Bulgaria were about 16,000 square km.

It is true that in OTL Bulgaria didn't participate in active battles. However, the bulgarian occupation of a rather small part of northern Greece was more brutal than even the german occupation. Even though they occupied such a small region, they executed some 40,000 Greeks, while the Germans executed a bit more than 21,000. A great part of the remaining greek population in the bulgarian occupation zone was ethnically cleansed. People were actually fleeing to the german-occupied strip next to the turkish border. That was in OTL.

Now the Bulgarians are not only very active in participating in the Greek Front, but they also occupy a much bigger area in Greece. If we judge by OTL numbers and the population figures, then TTL bulgarian occupation will be nightmarish. I think it will be quite possibly that we will end up with more executed people in Greece just by Bulgaria than the total executions of French citizens by Germans in occupied France. The WW2 in the Balkans and East Europe was incredibly brutal.

The 40,000 figure may be somewhat exaggerated. A total of 56,225 people were executed. Subtract 1,165 executed by Albanians and another 8,000 by Italians and the Bulgarian figure is closer to ~25,000. TTL the number by the end of 1942 will be ~31,000.

 

[cmakk1012]

If Yugoslavia is therefore split into two different states, East Yugo & West Yugo, the Soviets are gonna have a much easier time keeping Tito under their thumb, thereby severely negating the importance of Soviet and by extension their need to control the Bosporus, as the Soviets would already have secured, (a much better/wider truth be told), their long desired access to the Mediterranean Sea through another avenue, through the Strait of Ontranto.

Regardless of the military situation in 1945, the Straits are of paramount importance to soviet/russian security as they have been for centuries. Even if they won't military occupy them, I expect them to burn a lot of diplomatic capital in order to avoid the Straits being turned into a greek lake. What they would give to the Western Allies in return? No idea.

Ultimately the Straits will always be a much, much more desirable access to the sea than access to the Strait of Otranto. The Soviets can only access the Adriatic through Yugoslavia, which they cannot annex full out and more importantly is many hundreds of kilometers farther from the Russian heartland than the Bosporus. The Russians can plausibly get away with outright annexing the Straits region because it is small and isolated, rather like Kaliningrad IOTL.

My guess is that the Soviets attempt to strike a deal with the Greeks where the USSR backs Greek claims to all sorts of stuff in Asia Minor and the Balkans in exchange for full control of the Straits.

 

[Khan Doomy]

Well, we will see how it goes, but one USSR option is to detach Slovenia and Croatia from Yugoslavia. Croatia has better ports. The Allies might be willing to tolerate that in return for Soviet compensation elsewhere, since they can still block the Adriatic as long as Greece and Italy are pro-Western Allies.

If I was Stalin and I could get my hands on Croatia, I would do it without a second thought. A Tito that control only Solveno-Croatia is less able to play an independent game. Indeed perhaps there will be a Yugoslav Civil WAR (Croato-Solvenian War of Independence) as the first shot of the Cold War in Europe.

 

[Quinkana]

Ultimately the Straits will always be a much, much more desirable access to the sea than access to the Strait of Otranto. The Soviets can only access the Adriatic through Yugoslavia, which they cannot annex full out and more importantly is many hundreds of kilometers farther from the Russian heartland than the Bosporus. The Russians can plausibly get away with outright annexing the Straits region because it is small and isolated, rather like Kaliningrad IOTL.

My guess is that the Soviets attempt to strike a deal with the Greeks where the USSR backs Greek claims to all sorts of stuff in Asia Minor and the Balkans in exchange for full control of the Straits.

But the Greek army controls the Bosporus strait in any kind of successful offensive. At most the Soviets can negotiate with Greece for some kind of basing rights in the Bowohorus but anything like forcing the Greek army off the Asian side of the Marmara region would be insane and impossible. After all the reason why Russia directly annexed Kaliningrad is that they functionally control all the lands between them and Kaliningrad. I think the Greeks would at least push to Ankara and Konya while the soviets focus on Europe (much much more important for them) and so the front lines of the cold war is in central Anatolia making Russian control of the Bosporus impossible. Also that the WAllies would've helped with securing the Balkans so Greece's hand is free for a Turkish offensive too.

I think rump Yugoslavia is actually possible provided Russia controls Romania and Hungary which occured in otl.

 

[Quinkana]

If anything I think the USSR and Greece will spat about control of the Bosporus as a bargaining chip so that the Georgian SSR can control all of Pontus since I think Greece would like Armenia to get some coast. The other spats will be over the Balkans and I've no idea what will happen there because it depends on how much countries there are communist.

 

[Serpent]

As mentioned above there is a Serbian Army active in Greece and due to the different political circumstances, the Chetniks would have to properly engage against the Germans. With airbases in Greece, it would be much easier to send even in 1942 a lot of supplies to them, similar to the amount Tito was receiving in 1944 through the italian airfields. I think everything that we have read so far, indicate that Yugoslavia will be partitioned between Croatia and Serbia.

Yeah, I think that's a likely outcome.

Well, it kinda did in OTL. In Paris 1947 the Greeks wanted a border along the Maleshevo-Pirin-Rhodope-Arda Valley line. They had been attacked by Bulgaria three times during a single generation. The region had little economic value, basically added vital strategic depth.

There's one major difference here, TTL to OTL, and that is that Greece views Bulgaria as less of a threat, unlike France and the Netherlands would view Germany, because Greece has a sizable advantage in terms of population compared to Bulgaria, unlike ATL Turkey, which not only has been directly involved in WWII, increasing the threat it poses to Greece tremendously, but also has the population advantage compared to Greece, widening the gap more every single decade, due to their high birth rates. So, while Greece would realistically pursue acquiring strategic depth both out of Bulgaria and Turkey, which of these two would they prioritize getting their demands from? The answer is clear, Turkey hands down is the bigger threat, because if Greece were to wait for another generation, Turkey would not just make up for its losses, but pose an even greater threat to Greece than it did during WWII.

So Turkey would need to cut down, hard, not only for the viability of Greek presence on Asia Minor, but the viability of Greece as a whole, because we all know that in a potential future conflict, the Turks won't stop at Asia Minor, because of Misak-ı Millî, but rather go for areas like Eastern & Western Thrace in addition, heck, while awarding Macedonia to anyone who'd side with them, meaning Bulgaria, just to cut Greece down to a size they can push over. So Greece needs to break Turkey and break it as much as possible, so much that Misak-ı Millî will look as outlandish as possible of notion to ever dominate the national politics of Turkey, same to a less degree could be said for Turkish nationalism, with Turkish pride for their nation at all time low, I could see pacifist leftist parties having a large say post war, if not outright dominating the political scene, like Greece IRL, if they have a dominating Kingdom of Greece across the Aegean to content with.

 

[Quinkana]

Yeah, I think that's a likely outcome.

And that if the USSR could link up to Slovenia-Croatia across Romania and Hungary so a Bosnian war is likely with a partition of Bosnia being the most likely. Would there be a unification of Yugoslavia post cold war? That'd be interesting...

So Greece needs to break Turkey and break it as much as possible, so much that Misak-ı Millî will look as outlandish as possible of notion to ever dominate the national politics of Turkey, same to a less degree could be said for Turkish nationalism, with Turkish pride for their nation at all time low, I could see pacifist leftist parties having a large say post war, if not outright dominating the political scene, like Greece IRL, if they have a dominating Kingdom of Greece across the Aegean to content with.

I'd think Greece would be more right wing than otl. I think we'd see Turkish nationalism become more and more poisonous post WWII which fits with Arabian nationalism (makes sense for them to be fighting together) and so Greece would naturally be allied with Israel. This would make them much more militaristic and right wing and I don't see Greece's right wing weakening any time soon. It'd take an anti Muslim bent espicially except for the Circassians.

On other things I'd think the Alawite mandate would merge with the Alexandretta Sanjak to form the greater Alawite state which would deprive Syria of the coasts and cause them to have to fight the Syrian nationalists which also has part be Kurdish so the Arabs would hate everyone I'd feel. This state would be comfortably allied with Israel and Lebanon so a coasts Vs interior scenario may occur. Greece and the rest of the WAllies would help with them but Greece would be an important ally of the three coastal ME states.

 

[Serpent]

And that if the USSR could link up to Slovenia-Croatia across Romania and Hungary so a Bosnian war is likely with a partition of Bosnia being the most likely. Would there be a unification of Yugoslavia post cold war? That'd be interesting...

Yeah, it would be interesting to find out what happens there, but almost anything can happen, whole lot of different possibilities, so its anyone's guess.

I'd think Greece would be more right wing than otl. I think we'd see Turkish nationalism become more and more poisonous post WWII which fits with Arabian nationalism (makes sense for them to be fighting together) and so Greece would naturally be allied with Israel. This would make them much more militaristic and right wing and I don't see Greece's right wing weakening any time soon. It'd take an anti Muslim bent espicially except for the Circassians.

On other things I'd think the Alawite mandate would merge with the Alexandretta Sanjak to form the greater Alawite state which would deprive Syria of the coasts and cause them to have to fight the Syrian nationalists which also has part be Kurdish so the Arabs would hate everyone I'd feel. This state would be comfortably allied with Israel and Lebanon so a coasts Vs interior scenario may occur. Greece and the rest of the WAllies would help with them but Greece would be an important ally of the three coastal ME states.

100 % on spot, this is exactly what I've been considering on the back of my mind for the past few months here, with the addition of the Suez Crisis, the Turkish national conscience will be irreparably traumatized, where I could see Greece intervening on the Franco-British-Israeli side, to safeguard its citizens abroad in the Nile Delta, where more than 500.000 Greeks reside, officially speaking, to evacuate them, (as they could be very well resettled on areas of Asia Minor such as, Caria, Bythinia & Biga), as well as to protect the fellow Christian Coptic minority from persecution by the Muslim Egyptians, (maybe even set up a puppetling around Alexandria that the Copts rule over exclusicely). I could also see Spain joining on the alliance too, to assist the French with preserving control & stability over their colonial empires in North Africa, which would he a major concern for Spain, because Naser assisted the Algerian rebels with military advisors, financial assistance and weaponry, given that Franco is out of the picture now. As far as Greece goes, Britain could offer to cede Cyprus, in exchange for the invaluable assistance e Greece will offer the European coalition in Egypt, but of course, Britain would be entitled to retain control and use all of their military bases within Cyprus to ever agree to this arrangement.

 

[Quinkana]

As far as Greece goes, Britain could offer to cede Cyprus, in exchange for the invaluable assistance e Greece will offer the European coalition in Egypt, but of course, Britain would be entitled to retain control and use all of their military bases within Cyprus to ever agree to this arrangement.

Oh yep definitely. How'd the US react to this ittl? Like most of their allies sit opposite to them tbf.

 

[Serpent]

Oh yep definitely. How'd the US react to this ittl? Like most of their allies sit opposite to them tbf.

The US could try to flex its muscles, however, given the much more compact European-Israeli coalition, that could very well lead to backlash, where the alienated European allies choose to stand their ground diplomatically towards the USA, instead of backing down and acquiescing to international pressure, like IRL. All that would lead to cooler relations between Western Europe and the US, at least for the rest of the 50s.

 

[Khan Doomy]

I could see pacifist leftist parties having a large say post war,

The Turkish left shares the hard core anti-westernism (anti-imperialism in the local parlance) of the Turkish right. The narrative will be of Greece as the gendarme of the western powers (which from your description is not far off from the truth). Thing is, I cannot see Dragoumis easily playing that role. As per his background, and also Venizelos view of how to order the region, he will probably want to integrate Turkey in Greek influenced regional order, rather than exclude it.

as well as to protect the fellow Christian Coptic minority from persecution by the Muslim Egyptians, (maybe even set up a puppetling around Alexandria that the Copts rule over exclusicely).

Most Copts leave along the middle Nile. An Alexandrian puppet state makes no sense demographically. Copts are farmers, and are not going to willingly move into a city, and the Arabs will not push them.

I have a feeling a lot of you are a bit overestimating the power of Greece in this scenario. It is not a major power. It is not even a regional dominant power. It will have a lot less leverage than you think.

Greece might be dragged in the Yugoslav civil war, as well an anti-communist intervention in Albania.

 

[Quinkana]

The Turkish left shares the hard core anti-westernism (anti-imperialism in the local parlance) of the Turkish right. The narrative will be of Greece as the gendarme of the western powers (which from your description is not far off from the truth). Thing is, I cannot see Dragoumis easily playing that role. As per his background, and also Venizelos view of how to order the region, he will probably want to integrate Turkey in Greek influenced regional order, rather than exclude it.

I think the Turks will fight Greece again during the Arab Israeli wars with terrible consequences. It's more that the Turks won't be able to let WWII slide until they're truely crushed.

I have a feeling a lot of you are a bit overestimating the power of Greece in this scenario. It is not a major power. It is not even a regional dominant power. It will have a lot less leverage than you think.

I think they can do it if they have the political leverage to do so.

 

[Serpent]

The Turkish left shares the hard core anti-westernism (anti-imperialism in the local parlance) of the Turkish right. The narrative will be of Greece as the gendarme of the western powers (which from your description is not far off from the truth). Thing is, I cannot see Dragoumis easily playing that role. As per his background, and also Venizelos view of how to order the region, he will probably want to integrate Turkey in Greek influenced regional order, rather than exclude it.

I believe that, Ion Dragoumis and his successors, will take an approach similar to France's stance on relations with Germany post WWII, seeking partnership, but only if Greece is the senior partner in this bilateral partnership. Otherwise, they will inevitably have no other choice than to exclude Turkey out of the Greek-influenced regional order, despite if their preference for the earlier, they'd be forced to go with the latter option, simply because there might not be another way to go about. Ion Dragoumis is a man who, above all, puts his nation's interests first. So he may do it with a heavy heart, but if forced by the circumstances, he will follow through with this less than ideal scenario.

Most Copts leave along the middle Nile. An Alexandrian puppet state makes no sense demographically. Copts are farmers, and are not going to willingly move into a city, and the Arabs will not push them.

I might have gotten a bit ahead of myself there, I'm aware of the fact that most Copts reside alongside the middle Nile, which is why I don't believe this scenario has many chances of occurring, less than 1% tbh, more likely, the Greek forces would attempt to arm the Coptic population, to assist them, by acting as
gendarmerie/auxiliaries, to help them alleviate the burden of occupation. From there, I can either see those "loyal" Copts immigrating to Greece, to avoid retaliation, much like France gave refuge to the Muslim harki auxiliaries who had fought on the French side during the Algerian War, allowing them to immigrate to mainland France to avoid persecution. Or, it would lead to instability in Egypt and inter-community violence between the Muslims and Copts, if the Copts who fought on the Greek/allied side are not given refuge in Greece.

I have a feeling a lot of you are a bit overestimating the power of Greece in this scenario. It is not a major power. It is not even a regional dominant power. It will have a lot less leverage than you think.

Greece could end up as a regional power in it's own right, by the end of the 20th century however, only if it takes the right steps, a regional power similarly to how one would characterize the Netherlands as a regional power throughout the 18th, 19th & early 20th centuries.

Greece might be dragged in the Yugoslav civil war, as well an anti-communist intervention in Albania.

I really believe that Greece will attempt to avoid getting bogged down into that bloodbath, that the Yugoslav war will be, especially when intervention doesn't remotely serve any of the Greek interests. Now Albania, that may happen, but it's not guaranteed and will be much more limited in scale.

 

[Serpent]

I think the Turks will fight Greece again during the Arab Israeli wars with terrible consequences. It's more that the Turks won't be able to let WWII slide until they're truely crushed.

Turkey won't be able to intervene by 1956 that the Suez Crisis will occur, as most of their nation infrastructure & industry etc would be in ruins, their poverty stricken WWI & WWII veterans scars acting as a constant reminder of the terrible consequences of full scale war, throughout the Turkish society, while the political leadership, more than likely installed or at the very least approved by the allies, similar to post war Germany, where it underwent the denazification process, so Turkey's politicians will be decisively more liberal & pacifistic, at least in this date. Bottomline, Turkey will be outraged about it, but there will be nothing that they could possibly do about it.

However, the 6 days war in 1967 & the Yom Kippur War in 1973, I can definitely see some Turkish involvement, limited or not. They would have well recovered by that point, however, do not expect ATL Turkey to be anywhere near their OTL demographic figures, for a Turkey that has lost Eastern Thrace, (Imvros & Tenedos), Smyrna Zone, Biga, Caria & Bithynia on the west, as well as Greater Armenia, Pontus, Lazistan, Kurdistan & Alexandretta Sanjak on the east, a Turkey that has lost an entire generation in WWII, on top of the previous losses suffered during WWI, is an ATL Turkey that will be limited to 30 - 35 million people maximum nowadays.

That being said, they'd still be a significant challenge, despite being much more on par with Greece, they'd still hold a 3:2 numerical advantage at the very least. The best way to neuter their significant demographic advantage would be a strategy similar to the Israeli one regarding their Arab neighbors, and if that's not possible due to the sheer amount of chaos it causes in the wider region, then a strategy similar to how France dealt with Germany thought the first half of the 20th century, the construction of strong fortification lines along the borders, alongside with the seizure and exploitation of the major resources that Turkey has at its disposal, would result in a manageable Turkey for Greece.

I think they can do it if they have the political leverage to do so.

And yes, Greece can intervene on the Suez Crisis post WWII, if such an action is deemed to be in it's best national interests, the scope of their involvement and the nature of actions that Greece will choose to undertake can be up for debate, but Greece post WWII, unless already involved/bogged down in another conflict, which I very much doubt it, can most definitely intervene in the Suez Crisis and its political leadership would more than agree to it, if union with Cyprus was on the table, in exchange for the assistance rendered by Greece to the Franco-British-Israeli (& maybe Spaniard) forces.

 

[Quinkana]

The best way to neuter their significant demographic advantage would be a strategy similar to the Israeli one regarding their Arab neighbors, and if that's not possible due to the sheer amount of chaos it causes in the wider region, then a strategy similar to how France dealt with Germany thought the first half of the 20th century, the construction of strong fortification lines along the borders, alongside with the seizure and exploitation of the major resources that Turkey has at its disposal, would result in a manageable Turkey for Greece.

I do think basically the morganthau plan is doable for Greece in Turkey considering how fucked Turkey would be if it tries to fight in the seventies.

if union with Cyprus was on the table, in exchange for the assistance rendered by Greece to the Franco-British-Israeli (& maybe Spaniard) forces.

I think Cyprus would eventually join Greece as even if Cyprus breaks itself off the Turks there can't really fight the Greeks.

 

[Serpent]

I do think basically the morganthau plan is doable for Greece in Turkey considering how fucked Turkey would be if it tries to fight in the seventies.

Yeah, exactly my thoughts here.

I think Cyprus would eventually join Greece as even if Cyprus breaks itself off the Turks there can't really fight the Greeks.

That's certainly also very likely, however the issue would be, if this would happen earlier, it could lead to an outright wider conflict between Greece & Turkey. So if the Suez Crisis were to provide Greece with an opportunity to effectively unite with Cyprus, entirely uncontested by Turkey, that would provide Greece with much nessecary time to cement its hold over Cyprus, (strengthening the infrastructure of the Greek military throughout Cyprus, so that the island can truly act as a permanently placed "aircraft carrier"/multiplier of strength projection in the easternmost area of Greece), while most of the Turko-Cypriots would leave on their own volition, rather than stay as Greek citizens, so the issue would effectively be resolved in 1-2 decades, Turkey might claim the island, but their claim will be impossible to persue/secure, given the new realities.

All this would put Greece in an advantageous position in any future war between Greece & Turkey, as it will be fought almost exclusively on Asia Minor, in Greece's terms, whereas Turkish military will have to overcome the entrenched Greek positions, more than likely consisting of a layer of multiple heavily fortified defensive lines, the result of which action would be the infliction of gruesome casualties upon the Turkish military forces, leading to Turkey's defeat in said future conflict.

 

[Spatharios]

If Turkey is 'cut down to size' as some commenters have said, I am not at all sure that what remains will be so much of a threat, or that ATL Turkey will have the demographic explosion of OTL. Its economy will be weaker, the best agricultural land will be in Greek hands, it will face massive casualties among its military-age population and destruction/occupation of its own territory, leaving aside reparations or whether the country is divided or faces restrictions on its military. Conversely Greece will enjoy many more advantages than OTL, so is OTL post-war demographic boom will be more pronounced and sustained ITTL. And even if the 3:2 analogy mentioned above should happen, with Greece's ITTL economic and industrial advantages, the Turkish threat will be much reduced. France was worried about Germany not just because of the population disparity, but because it was coupled to a far larger economy and industry...

 

[Quinkana]

If Turkey is 'cut down to size' as some commenters have said, I am not at all sure that what remains will be so much of a threat, or that ATL Turkey will have the demographic explosion of OTL. Its economy will be weaker, the best agricultural land will be in Greek hands, it will face massive casualties among its military-age population and destruction/occupation of its own territory, leaving aside reparations or whether the country is divided or faces restrictions on its military. Conversely Greece will enjoy many more advantages than OTL, so is OTL post-war demographic boom will be more pronounced and sustained ITTL. And even if the 3:2 analogy mentioned above should happen, with Greece's ITTL economic and industrial advantages, the Turkish threat will be much reduced. France was worried about Germany not just because of the population disparity, but because it was coupled to a far larger economy and industry...

Tbf Turkey is still barely able to function with Cilicia and the ports at the black sea, and I think Turkey could fight with Soviet assistance. Cilicia and the black sea port regions would be developed by Turkey and the USSR basically. They'll still be absolutely fucked if they fight the Greeks but it'd be a more even battle.

 

[goumaister]

I can not see why would the Greeks spend money an manpower to fight in the Suez Crisis. It is not like UK and France need military help either way. They are 2 of the Great Powers with massive militaries so what would Greece offer? Also that crisis is one that both USSR and USA agreed against it so I can't see how that will help the case on Greece helping the declining Imperial powers.

Also what is this craze with Israel? Greece has it's own problems to fight in the Balkans or in the EEC to intergrade towards the lucrative western markets for better economic growth rather than a region which is truly unstable OTL. ITTL we could even see a united Arab kingdom which is even British related so we could see 2 possibilities:
1) The British push the Arabs to accept the Jews as an exchange for something the Arabs want. 2) The Arab front being united under 1 government it could throw the Jews out before they entrench themselves in 1947.
Personally I see 1 as more likely but ignoring a more stable Arab world ITTL and it's relation with Israel. Also I still can't see why would Greece entangle itself in that mess either way. I can see them trading with Israel of course even selling weapons but I can't see them sending troops or even embargo the Arabs as the more markets to trade the better and also the more stable situation the better.

About full Turkish occupation ITTL, I can't see why it would happen. Unlike the Asia Minor Campaign airpower is way more important here and can subdue Turkey way easier than occupying every part of the State. If one combines the breaking of all 3 fronts with a continuous air bombardment I see a very likely scenario where there is a riot against the government especially if the Allies give generous peace terms if minimal ground changes. I can see this happening in early 1944 so the Allies can free a lot of their troops towards the main enemy. Of course a full occupation might occur I just don't think it's the best on the Allies sides. Every division in Anatolia is not a division defeating Germany.

 

[emperor joe]

Maybe greek forces will participate in the peacekeeping forces after the Anglo french leave