Don't forget that in 1942 the Costanzo Ciano-class heavy cruisers will be coming online. I think that battles like Cape Bonn will be more balanced and some battles can even turn seriously bad for the allies such as the First and Second Battle of Sirte (ITTL the Regia Marina could also be helped more by Axis aviation due to the fact then Sirte would more than likely turn in the OTL El-Aghelia).
Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles
- Thread starter Lascaris
- Start date
No , Eastern Front 1941 the only thing that limited the depth of the German advance was logistics. They just could not get fuel etc to the front quick enough. So if the infrastructure is the same , the stop line will be approximately in the same place ( they might get to certain places quicker but then would have to stop to allow the supplies to catch up giving, overall, the same pace ).
Also remember the Germans are also spread thinner with more fronts and Italy's oil is coming from the same stocks as Germany's so the fighting in Greece is directly draining Germany's limited oil supply.
Germany shouldn't be more spread out since they're recalling their air force and stuff back from Greece and the middle East for Barbarossa anyways, so they will have similar amounts of people and material, while the Soviets can't really disengage from the Caucasus front to fight the Germans at the initial months of Barbarossa.
I think the Soviet counterattacks should have less soldiers ittl as ittl the bulk of the active army is in the Caucasus region, which would take time to recall, and they'll be needed to defend the land against the Turks. Thats why I think the initial Soviet counteroffensive would be weaker. Germany should break more easily ittl tho.
First the Germans will be having to supply the Turks with kit especially planes and armour ( and of course supplies especially oil ) so they have less on hand. Second , no Italian contribution to Barbarossa due to continued fighting in Greece means the Heer is having to make up the difference and so spread thinner ( not counting the heavier losses/expenditure of supplies due to more fighting ).
And did you not grasp the idea of logistics being the limiting factor in the East? It does not matter if the Germans can move quicker at times, they still end up in the same place. Looking at Soviet losses in OTL 1941 and its hard to see how they can be worse , indeed less troops at the front initially just means less destroyed by encirclement in the first phase.
Not necessarily, they can remove forces but logistics are too important, they cannot just ignore holes in their logistics, and what was said before, the Germans already moved at max speed otl, they cannot go faster than the supplies go, otherwise that's just gonna make it easier for Russia to counterattack the holes in their lines.
It also seems like Russia is going to manage to avoid several encirclements to a degree.
Simply how I see it, due to more fronts and commitments with resources that are limited, I would say that TTL Germany is weaker than otl, meanwhile, Russia has a black hole in its leadership yes, but men and guns is something Russia has enough for. Turkey is not motorized/mechanized enough to pose a large enough threat that Russia can't solve with men and bullets.
Edit; altough, Lascaris decides how it goes ofcourse, if Germany decides to commit some of its Atlantic coast manpower towards the Soviets( which I see Hitler do) it could also mean an earlier and more succesfull d-day
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That's a distinct possibility. Or additional effort could be put towards the earlier completion of Roma, possibly also Impero. Actually Impero poses some interesting questions, there was some serious thought to converting it into a carrier I understand...
I wouldn't bet they are finished in the first place. Italy had relatively limited shipbuilding capacity in wartime and pressing needs for escorts.
I think it was mentioned in previous comments of the author that the Soviet Caucasus troops are OTL just with an additional commander ITTL. They were stationed there as OTL so no missing troops from the frontlines.
@Lascaris is there a chance that in Autumn 1941 the Italians will conduct an equivalent to OTL Alexandria Raid in Suda Bay or Piraeus? Maybe ITTL Teseo Tesei dies in this mission?
From memory 7 divisions were later in 1941 sent north, to fight the Germans. Otherwise the armies facing Turkey remained posted on the border for the duration of the war, while something in the order of 100,000 men occupied Iran.
10th MAS does exist, the inspiration for it, ie the sinking of the battleship Jugoslavija predates the POD by a few years.
Part 82
Teheran, August 17th, 1941
Was president Reza Pahlavi hoping to play for time despite the second allied ultimatum and German pressure? Had he been seized by indecision under the inexorable pressure from both the Allies and the Axis? Ultimately as general Zahedi's troops moved on the presidential palace it didn't matter. His own time was up. Both he and his son died under unclear circumstances during the attack on the palace. By the morning most of the cabinet were either dead or arrested and general Zahedi had proclaimed himself president and anounced that the country would stay neutral but not bow down to British or Russian blackmail.
Smyrna, August 18th, 1941
One German and three Italian divisions and whatever heavy artillery the Germans and Italians could spare had been brought over the previous month to the siege lines. It was not as much as marshal Fevzi Cakmak, or general Kazim Orbay who directly commanded the besiegers might had hoped but not much could be done about it, the Russian front despite huge successes so far was sucking massive resources and the Italians had multiple commitments in the Balkans and North Africa already. So the reinforcements provided would have to do. Smyrna was tying down nearly 400,000 Turkish soldiers. It had to be eliminated. The heavy Skoda made siege guns start the artillery preparation for the second assault of Smyrna. Within minutes Greek 155mm and 8in guns, recently provided to the Greeks under Lend Lease answered back...
Teheran August 19th, 1941
The presidential palace still had been signs from the fighting as Abdolhossein Teymourtash entered it. His old friend Pahlavi might had grown slack under the increasing after nearly two decades in power and surronding himself with the wrong people but he had not. When Zahedi's soldiers had come they had not found him. Afterwards Zahedi had forgotten the extend of influence Britain still had behind the scenes in Iran. When men in British pay had to choose between a pro-German coup and its opposition who were they going to join? As he expected they had jumped on the size of his loyalists. Much work had to be done...
An extraordinary session of the Majilis would proclaim Teymourtash the second president of Iran, and severe diplomatic relations with Germany, Italy and Turkey the same day. The next day Teymourtash woud send an old political enemy of his, a certain Mohammad Mossadegh as envoy extraordinary to the United States to request from president Roosvelt to intercede between the new pro-allied government of Iran and the British and Soviets.
Arachthos river, August 20th, 1941
The front had been relatively quiet for the past several months. But Italian intelligence indicated allied forces had been reduced to 3 infantry divisions. The Italians had 13 in Epirus. If the Greeks could be knocked off then the majority could be transferred to Thermopylae while in theory the left flank of the Allied position further east would be directly threatened, given the mountains of Eyrytania, that had fewer roads than even Epirus and Albania this was easier said than done. Italian intelligence might have missed the fact that the Greeks might have reduced the number of their divisions but much increased the one left but general Papagos would still have his work cut out for him. Besides Cakmak and Peker had asked for at a minimum a spoiling attack if no further reinforcements could be sent to Smyrna and Mussolini had volunteered to provide one.
Spercheios river, August 23rd, 1941
Allied artillery signalled the start of the allied offensive against the Italian and Bulgarian forces dug in against them. Was Pangalos serious about the offensive, or was he trying to tie down Axis reinforcements? Time would tell...
Iraq, August 25th, 1941
The 2nd Indian and the 9th British armoured brigades spearheaded the three Indian and one French Infantry divisions participating in the Iraqi part of operation Exporter. Further to the west three more French divisions, in addition to three Australian and a single British division supported by a French tank brigade were taking the offensive in Syria. Allied planners felt pretty confident about the Iraq part of the offensive. Opposing them besides around 60,000 Iraqis were only 2 Turkish divisions and one German division which had replaced the 7th Flieger division when railroad communications with Iraq had been re-established....
Was president Reza Pahlavi hoping to play for time despite the second allied ultimatum and German pressure? Had he been seized by indecision under the inexorable pressure from both the Allies and the Axis? Ultimately as general Zahedi's troops moved on the presidential palace it didn't matter. His own time was up. Both he and his son died under unclear circumstances during the attack on the palace. By the morning most of the cabinet were either dead or arrested and general Zahedi had proclaimed himself president and anounced that the country would stay neutral but not bow down to British or Russian blackmail.
Smyrna, August 18th, 1941
One German and three Italian divisions and whatever heavy artillery the Germans and Italians could spare had been brought over the previous month to the siege lines. It was not as much as marshal Fevzi Cakmak, or general Kazim Orbay who directly commanded the besiegers might had hoped but not much could be done about it, the Russian front despite huge successes so far was sucking massive resources and the Italians had multiple commitments in the Balkans and North Africa already. So the reinforcements provided would have to do. Smyrna was tying down nearly 400,000 Turkish soldiers. It had to be eliminated. The heavy Skoda made siege guns start the artillery preparation for the second assault of Smyrna. Within minutes Greek 155mm and 8in guns, recently provided to the Greeks under Lend Lease answered back...
Teheran August 19th, 1941
The presidential palace still had been signs from the fighting as Abdolhossein Teymourtash entered it. His old friend Pahlavi might had grown slack under the increasing after nearly two decades in power and surronding himself with the wrong people but he had not. When Zahedi's soldiers had come they had not found him. Afterwards Zahedi had forgotten the extend of influence Britain still had behind the scenes in Iran. When men in British pay had to choose between a pro-German coup and its opposition who were they going to join? As he expected they had jumped on the size of his loyalists. Much work had to be done...
An extraordinary session of the Majilis would proclaim Teymourtash the second president of Iran, and severe diplomatic relations with Germany, Italy and Turkey the same day. The next day Teymourtash woud send an old political enemy of his, a certain Mohammad Mossadegh as envoy extraordinary to the United States to request from president Roosvelt to intercede between the new pro-allied government of Iran and the British and Soviets.
Arachthos river, August 20th, 1941
The front had been relatively quiet for the past several months. But Italian intelligence indicated allied forces had been reduced to 3 infantry divisions. The Italians had 13 in Epirus. If the Greeks could be knocked off then the majority could be transferred to Thermopylae while in theory the left flank of the Allied position further east would be directly threatened, given the mountains of Eyrytania, that had fewer roads than even Epirus and Albania this was easier said than done. Italian intelligence might have missed the fact that the Greeks might have reduced the number of their divisions but much increased the one left but general Papagos would still have his work cut out for him. Besides Cakmak and Peker had asked for at a minimum a spoiling attack if no further reinforcements could be sent to Smyrna and Mussolini had volunteered to provide one.
Spercheios river, August 23rd, 1941
Allied artillery signalled the start of the allied offensive against the Italian and Bulgarian forces dug in against them. Was Pangalos serious about the offensive, or was he trying to tie down Axis reinforcements? Time would tell...
Iraq, August 25th, 1941
The 2nd Indian and the 9th British armoured brigades spearheaded the three Indian and one French Infantry divisions participating in the Iraqi part of operation Exporter. Further to the west three more French divisions, in addition to three Australian and a single British division supported by a French tank brigade were taking the offensive in Syria. Allied planners felt pretty confident about the Iraq part of the offensive. Opposing them besides around 60,000 Iraqis were only 2 Turkish divisions and one German division which had replaced the 7th Flieger division when railroad communications with Iraq had been re-established....
Somehow I assume he didn't have a good time either... That said how exactly did Teymourtash turn that around that quickly? Did Zahedi just not put up a fight at all? He had enough support to attempt the coup in the first place... did he flee the country?
Could it be time to reach for Olympus? Feels a bit early but that would alleviate some of Greece's supply issues if they can get Thessaly back I think...
I think that pangalos is trying to tie down axis reinforcements,or the greek intelligence agency has gotten wind of the axis plans and pangalos has decided to take the initiative
Aww I thought we'd see Iran have a civil war. Would the Brits and USSR still invade them like otl, or would we see bits still resisting and causing USSR to use it as a Casus Belli? Still holding out for greater Azerbaijan.
The offensive in Smyrna would be the final hurrah of the Turks. If this offensive fails, the Germans and Italians won't be able to supply the Turks due to Barbarossa and the Italians having to deal with the Greeks, and with the Turks having no capacity in making new artillery pieces they're in deep trouble. Pangalos after fighting in Sperichos (I hope it's Pangalos pushing back to Thessaly) has a bunch of good options to fight against. The Turks will be an easier target, and it may be better to push into Turkey to knock them out first.
The offensive in Smyrna would be the final hurrah of the Turks. If this offensive fails, the Germans and Italians won't be able to supply the Turks due to Barbarossa and the Italians having to deal with the Greeks, and with the Turks having no capacity in making new artillery pieces they're in deep trouble. Pangalos after fighting in Sperichos (I hope it's Pangalos pushing back to Thessaly) has a bunch of good options to fight against. The Turks will be an easier target, and it may be better to push into Turkey to knock them out first.
I think the British and the Soviets will feel that they have to have some troops in Iran, given its importance both as a supply artery and as a source of oil. There is now a neutral-friendly government in Tehran, but London and Moscow won't want to risk another coup, especially with the Germans much closer than OTL. So I could see Soviet and British troops entering the country, but with some sort of face saving invitation from the Iranian government, possibly facilitated by the United States and without any fighting, except possibly some mopping up of Zahedi loyalists, if any. These troops will probably stick around for the duration of the war to guard the eventual lend-lease supply lines, but the numbers will get drawn down considerably once the new regime shows that it is stable and once the German-Turkish forces are pushed out of Iraq.
Yeah... official invasion is unlikely, but I'm still hoping the Soviets strong arm the Iranians to let go of the land thats majority Azerbaijani.
I wonder what is the status of the air battle over the Greek front. I would like to believe that with fewer Luftwaffe units there and with Lend-lease aid, the Allies will be able to contest the skies. Something like a draw or a narrow Allied victory.
I don't have a strong opinion on this, but it would make for a more interesting map. But I think TTL might make that outcome less likely: here Iran is already jumping on the allied bandwagon, I wouldn't be surprised if a declaration of war against the Axis followed sometime in 1942. That would make Stalin grabbing some Iranian territory that much more difficult, since IOTL he failed to do so with a neutral Iran.
IOTL there was a lot of horse trading in the immediate aftermath of the war and quite a few Soviet territorial demands that went nowhere: parts of Turkey, Iranian Azerbaijan, Libya. ITTL the case for Soviet acquisitions in Turkey might end up being stronger, since Turkey is now firmly with the Axis. Stalin might make a play for a piece of Iran as a trading piece. Really, a lot will depend on where the front lines will be in 1945. For all we know, the Allies will end up in Romania via Greece and Bulgaria.
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Yeah true, and Azerbaijan will be relatively less powerful than otl after everything, and I'd like to see some differences in the future tho. Annexation by Persia (which is what they should be called as Iran shouldn't have gotten the name change so Persia should remain an exonym) would be an interesting option as Persia can go pan Islamism with more democracy basically. Would be a very interesting nation.
The USSR will definitely end up with Turkic land since they would fight in the Caucasus. I've no idea how central Turkey would be treated as the Greeks would be the proxy of the WAllies. Greece would definitely push into Turkey and take a lot of Turkic people during occupation which would make western led Turkey veeeery unstable (claims of imperialism will have fertile ground there) so there's precedent to take more land (Bursa is going to be Greek at this point. A Bursa/Eskisehir to Antalya line of defense seems to make sense strictly looking at a topographic map. Maybe use the Taurus mountains as the anchor against Turkey? I don't think the Greeks can absorb all that land tho.) but the border between Turkey and Greece will always be rife with tension no matter what as a result. I think Greece will be one of the most dynamic states in Europe after France because they have to influence/fight in the middle East for survival (at first against the USSR, later as foreign policy to ensure Turkey never gets any ideas).
I also assume that the lines of ittl cold war will end up with the WAllies holding everything South of the Carpathians. Greece basically gets handed the Balkans as allies (hopefully a sane Yugoslavia that'll solve their religious differences that informed their ethnicity) and Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania (Romania and bigger Moldova?) being weakened and/or allies (and much weaker than Greece) means that Greece is one of the main players of the Balkans again from pulling from what's essentially most of Turkey's otl industry with better efficiency. Greece will be highly influential in politics of Europe as a result.