North Korean Coup or Civil War, 1995

[MerryPrankster]

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articl..._by_mortar_fire#sthash.VT6ta103.DOrqvasH.dpbs

This article references a possible attempted military coup in North Korea in 1995 that was crushed with a minimum of combat and maximum executions afterward, including people supposedly being tied up in buildings that were then set on fire.

What if it had gotten to the point of an extended civil war or an outright takeover of North Korea by whoever was in charge of the Sixth Corps

 

[Whanztastic]

General Gary Luck was in charge of USFK at the time. I am not sure if they'd cross the border, but rather I'd imagine their mission would be more humanitarian because I assume there would be a massive movement of people into the ROK and the PRC.

 

[Kung Fucious]

Depends on how bad things get. If it's a real shooting war, things get very hairy. Does the South launch a pre-emptive strike to neutralize any rogue elements who think this sounds like a good a time as any to finish what they started in the 50's (or vice versa)? Maybe some patrol shoots up a guard post by mistake and things rapidly escalate, who knows?

If it's more of a general post-Cold War collapse, I could see the US and the RoK moving in on a humanitarian mission, maybe bringing about a peaceful reunification.

 

[Blackfox5]

Any decision to intervene would have to be decided mutually by both Washington and Seoul. It would probably be driven by popular opinion in South Korea more than anything. It would be South Korea that would deal with any blowback from an intervention so they definitely have a veto here. I don't see the US acting unilaterally.

Likely there would be unofficial contact with both sides of the NorKo civil war to determine which one would be best. Then that side might be covertly supported in exchange for concessions. This most likely would be the mutineers, but it's still suspect. Both sides might be unacceptable.

It's also possible a pan-Korean peace conference might be held to end the fighting and possibly lead to unification in the long term. I think this is very unlikely though as at least one side (Kim's) wouldn't want that at all.

A third possibility is that the NorKo civil war ends with both combatants being exhausted, and South Korea moves in to take control - most likely under some humanitarian pretext. This would only be done after both sides exhausted themselves to the extent that military intervention by South Korea, supported by America, would have acceptable losses and would lead to a decisive victory. Afterwards, South Korea probably sets up a separate administration, perhaps lead by senior NorKo collaborators, to administer the north separately until such time it is developed enough that unification would be economically feasible.

This only happens if there is a civil war. If the mutineers win outright, there is no intervention. Whatever happens in diplomacy will depends on what the mutineers want. There is no certainty they will be better than Kim, although one would hope that.