Hmm that is interesting, a Venice that's stronger would change Balkan politics for a while, and a Rakoczi that manages to win against the ottomans would be cool asf.
Nobunaga’s Ambition Realized: Dawn of a New Rising Sun
- Thread starter Ambassador Huntsman
- Start date
Much as I'd agree, I still wonder if it's possible for Sweden to remain dominant in Scandinavia (as in expel the Danish out of Norway and Scania and maintain its hold on Finland). As for their empire, might as well make the best out of the current situation instead of dreaming of Dominium Maris Baltici. In other words, time to forsake one end of the Baltic for the other.
Alongside the more minor aim of gaining a strip of land through Mecklenburg to connect Wismar to Swedish Pomerania, maybe Sweden can trade Livonia in exchange for Polish help in conquering the rest of Pomerania from Brandenburg?
Then trade Estland and Ingria to Russia for the Kola peninsula and some extra border territory [1][2], but more importantly, in exchange for help in taking a chunk out of Pomerelia/Royal Prussia should the Commonwealth turn hostile later on [3]. If this hypothetical latter war goes well enough, Russia may even take Livonia and have Riga [4] as its window to the Baltic as opposed to either Narva, or more likely Reval/Tallinn as was originally intended in the above land swap.
Then trade Estland and Ingria to Russia for the Kola peninsula and some extra border territory [1][2], but more importantly, in exchange for help in taking a chunk out of Pomerelia/Royal Prussia should the Commonwealth turn hostile later on [3]. If this hypothetical latter war goes well enough, Russia may even take Livonia and have Riga [4] as its window to the Baltic as opposed to either Narva, or more likely Reval/Tallinn as was originally intended in the above land swap.
Note:
[1] The area further from the Kola peninsula should be of some familiarity to the Swedes, as it seems like they referred to the area where the city of Petrozavodsk (marked in brown) is as Onegaborg back in the day.
[2] As a very minor point, for any question as to how the changing border will affect their boundaries at sea, I made the Solovetsky Monastery (marked in orange) and the archipelago it's on still be part of Muscovy.
[3] Methinks that Danzig (marked in yellow) will be a step too far even for a wildly successful war by Sweden and Russia against the PLC, unless you want to really kneecap the latter by hampering its trade income through commerce along the Vistula river.
[4] Don't think there's a need for St. Petersburg should Reval and/or Riga come into Russian possession earlier ITTL. Might as well just expand the already existing harbors there, instead of building up an entirely new port city from scratch. With either of the two, Arkhangelsk can be set aside imo (more the green line rather than either of the red lines) for these harbors, hence I why think Moscow's willing to give more on that front (rather empty, sparsely populated, and resource-poor land anyway) in exchange for actually valuable territory.
[2] As a very minor point, for any question as to how the changing border will affect their boundaries at sea, I made the Solovetsky Monastery (marked in orange) and the archipelago it's on still be part of Muscovy.
[3] Methinks that Danzig (marked in yellow) will be a step too far even for a wildly successful war by Sweden and Russia against the PLC, unless you want to really kneecap the latter by hampering its trade income through commerce along the Vistula river.
[4] Don't think there's a need for St. Petersburg should Reval and/or Riga come into Russian possession earlier ITTL. Might as well just expand the already existing harbors there, instead of building up an entirely new port city from scratch. With either of the two, Arkhangelsk can be set aside imo (more the green line rather than either of the red lines) for these harbors, hence I why think Moscow's willing to give more on that front (rather empty, sparsely populated, and resource-poor land anyway) in exchange for actually valuable territory.
Honestly I wouldn't count on them using military action Denmark least Russia use that as a excuse to invade and snatch Finland away from them, but the rest of your proposals are interesting, hopefully the author can use them when developing Sweden down the line.
I see Poland-Lithuania is doing well. Question is, how long until corruption from the Liberum Veto does them in?
With war in Eastern Europe and rising powers along Russia's western border, Russia's attention will be focused on Europe. There will be little if any interest in expanding or contesting territory in their Far East, which would have no impact on the European situation. The expeditions there will be on their own against the East Asian nations.
Tbf Liberum Vito is more a symptom than the cause, but yeah the nobles just looking out for themselves is one big reason.
Perhaps we could see change ittl. Perhaps they'll fail. We'll just have to wait and see.
Chapter 94: The Economy of 17th Century Japan
Chapter 94: The Economy of 17th Century Japan
A core tenet of Oda Nobunaga’s vision for his united Japan was that projected mercantile power rivaling that of European powers like the Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain. Trade expansionist policy and incentivization by successive Oda chancellors facilitated Japan’s trajectory towards such a status, transforming the realm’s economy throughout the 17th century and making it far more globalized and expansive than it was in previous centuries. As a result, Japan was the 8th largest economy in the world by 1665 [1]. Associated economic changes facilitated the growth of regional industries, from cash crops to handicrafts, and made each province interconnected with one another. They would even serve as the spark of Japanese proto-industrialization, particularly in the latter half of the 17th century. All of this in turn provided fuel for newfound population growth. Despite being embroiled in overseas conflicts and 2 civil wars at home, Japan’s population stood at 20 million people by 1665. Notably, a lot of this growth took place in Japan’s booming urban centers, making the realm one of the most urbanized societies in the world.
Most representative of Japan’s new economy and societal shifts was the rise and stabilization of Sakai as one of Asia’s foremost trade centers. It brought together foreign merchants with goods and products from across the realm, coming through Japan’s overland routes or coastal trade routes connecting into the port. Sakai was also increasingly becoming a major financial center with all the money and goods flowing in and out and getting exchanged, with certain merchants beginning to use their wealth to give loans to other merchants and even certain daimyo in some clans. The most prominent of these new banking merchants was the Yodoya family (淀屋家) whose wealth came from Sakai’s rice market. The influence and wealth Sakai merchants wielded meant that despite the city’s oversight by Azuchi, they largely ran its commercial affairs of Sakai independently and through its official urban council established through the Kanei Reforms. Saidaniya Gonpei, the Yodoya family, Yasui Kuhei (安井九兵衛), and the Konoike family (鴻池家) counted themselves among Sakai’s biggest merchants and the former even demonstrated the fact that merchants were powerful enough to influence national politics.
Most representative of Japan’s new economy and societal shifts was the rise and stabilization of Sakai as one of Asia’s foremost trade centers. It brought together foreign merchants with goods and products from across the realm, coming through Japan’s overland routes or coastal trade routes connecting into the port. Sakai was also increasingly becoming a major financial center with all the money and goods flowing in and out and getting exchanged, with certain merchants beginning to use their wealth to give loans to other merchants and even certain daimyo in some clans. The most prominent of these new banking merchants was the Yodoya family (淀屋家) whose wealth came from Sakai’s rice market. The influence and wealth Sakai merchants wielded meant that despite the city’s oversight by Azuchi, they largely ran its commercial affairs of Sakai independently and through its official urban council established through the Kanei Reforms. Saidaniya Gonpei, the Yodoya family, Yasui Kuhei (安井九兵衛), and the Konoike family (鴻池家) counted themselves among Sakai’s biggest merchants and the former even demonstrated the fact that merchants were powerful enough to influence national politics.
Depiction of 17th century Sakai
The increasingly mercantile realm would also see the samurai class get involved, both through governance and direct enterprise. Initially after the unification of Japan, the various samurai clans stayed out of direct mercantile activities, continuing to focus on the agricultural productivity of the interior lands, the facilitation of economic activity through internal improvements, and the overall prosperity of the clan and the people they ruled over. However, as trade expansionism occurred rapidly out of the hands of the daimyo, the samurai class began to look on with interest. Daimyo controlling important ports would emulate Azuchi’s policies and invest in the expansion of their maritime outposts. Notable examples of such ports included Kagoshima in Satsuma province, Shimonoseki in Nagado province, and Sunpu in Suruga province.
The first clan to take the next step in terms of mercantile involvement, however, was the Miyoshi clan. Awa province had seen indigo production in the 16th century as the population grew and more people were able to engage in activities beyond subsistence agriculture. As the dye rose in value and desirability in the 17th century among not only domestic markets but even among interested Ming and European traders, Miyoshi Yasutaka saw an opportunity to capitalize upon his domain’s famous industry for the clan’s profit. To that end, he established the first ji-shoukai (侍商会), or samurai clan enterprise, in the realm with the Awa Shoukai (阿波商会) in 1633. This enterprise was tasked with negotiating agreements between the indigo farmers and the clan administration and essentially took over the external trade of the dye. The Awa Shoukai was not only run by clan retainers but talented individuals from the lower classes trained in the usage of the abacus, allowing it to quickly begin generating profit for the clan. These profits in turn would fund the subsidization of indigo production in Awa province, increasing its output dramatically and raising the prestige of not only the dye but also the clan itself. After its consolidation over the indigo trade, the Awa Shoukai would begin to also dabble into other products, including handicrafts and the sudachi (酢橘), a green citrus fruit found almost exclusively in the province. This mercantile branch of the Miyoshi clan would become an integral part of the clan and indispensable in its recovery after the death of Miyoshi Yasunori and many other Miyoshi samurai during the Manji War, enabling the clan’s transition from a military-centric powerhouse to one more centered around its cash crops and mercantile prowess. Furthermore, it made Awa province the wealthiest province in Shikoku.
Indigo production in Awa province today conducted in the traditional fashion
Other clans would establish their own ji-shoukai. Most were scaled-down versions of the Awa Shoukai, although the Mōri clan’s Kanmongumi (関門組) [2] notably focused on trade route maintenance due to its geographic location and its strong ties with the Joseon kingdom stronger even compared to Azuchi. However, central and eastern Japan’s clan lagged behind in the creation of their own ji-shoukai due to variety of factors, including the economic dominance of merchants in Sakai, Azuchi, and Gifu, the devastation of the Furuwatari and Manji Wars, and the relative underdevelopment of specialized industries compared to western Japan. Meanwhile, the far north saw the growing fur trade continue to predominate, limiting the size and viability of such entities due to the impossibility of regulating its “production” in the same way crops and crafts could be. Although the emergence of ji-shoukai in 17th century Japan aided economic and mercantile growth and even heralded the very beginnings of Japan’s proto-industrial phase, it also highlighted the east-west divide in the realm.
Despite Japan’s greater economic focus and dependence on maritime trade and mercantile activity, agriculture, specifically the production of rice, remained the backbone of the realm. A large majority of the population were rice farmers and despite the proliferation of ji-shoukai, samurai clans continued to rely on rice for the distribution of samurai stipends. Within the century, rice production would nearly double due to not only steady population growth and land reclamation in the aftermath of conflicts but also better technology to control the flow of irrigation into rice paddies. As a result, there was much surplus rice, driving the creation of large-scale rice markets throughout the realm. In addition to Sakai, such rice markets existed in smaller cities like Shimonoseki, Gifu, Kamakura, and Yonezawa. A certain subtype of merchant, the rice broker, would rise in importance at these rice markets, charging clans money to store rice in large warehouses and even transport them from castle towns to these central rice markets. In many cases, daimyo would even take out loans from these rice brokers.
17th century depiction of the Tsurugaoka Rice Exchange (鶴岡米会所) in Kamakura
Bireitō’s economy was also highly dependent on trade, with Iriebashi being the primary port on the island. Due to how the island became incorporated into the realm, local rule was more centralized under the provincial governors atop their Japanese, Chinese, and indigenous Bireitoan vassals. As a result, a ji-shoukai equivalent already existed in both Bireizen and Bireigo, initially focused on tropical fruit production. Shortly after the Iberian-Japanese War, however, sugarcane was introduced to the island, and it quickly became the island’s most prized commodity, its output eagerly accepted by the home islands and providing the realm with a native sugar industry. Rice production also boomed in the lowlands, especially in the predominantly Chinese villages governed by Japanese magistrates. However, a surplus market would not emerge like it did in the home islands due to the smaller rice farmer population, a greater emphasis on cash crop agriculture, and rice being a smaller part of the diet of indigenous Bireitoans.
In contrast, the province of Luson possessed a more feudal economy despite the centralized rule of governor Kanbe Tomoyoshi and his successors as Japan’s focus was on Luson as a military buffer with a loyal peasant population. Nevertheless, Luson like Bireitō exported sugar and exotic fruits like coconuts and mangos. Additionally, the port of Awari had extensive trade connections with parts of Southeast Asia and even the Indian subcontinent, being a particular hotspot for Malay and Siamese merchants. Meanwhile, Ezo and other Japanese possessions in the far north were heavily dependent on the fur trade, with only Ezo having any population of sedentary farmers growing crops like rice. One thing it had in common with Bireitō and Luson, however, were similar interactions between the Japanese and the indigenous peoples there who often traded their traditional clothing and crafts as exotic products.
The economy of 17th century Japan was representative of a newly mercantile realm simultaneously retaining many feudal trappings it dealt with as a result of Japan’s own evolving political structures away from the days of the Sengoku period. Inevitably, these contradictions would clash and even cause economic difficulties for Japan but for the time being Japan’s expanding relations and steady population growth led the way towards greater prosperity and diversification of industry.
[1]: The 7 countries with larger economies than Japan were the Ming, the Mughals, the Ottomans, France, Russia, Spain, and Poland-Lithuania.
[2]: Named after the Kanmon Straits (関門海峡) that surround the key port of Shimonoseki.
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@Ambassador Huntsman ! Great chapter! I sure hope Japan can recover from those future economic difficulties
Is there any changes in case of economic activities of Buddhist temples?
Great update!! I sure the way of harvesting and processing sugarcane on Bireitou isn’t anything like it is in the Caribbean.
Also how is the criminal underworld scene in Oda Japan?
Also how is the criminal underworld scene in Oda Japan?
So I just updated Chapter 23 and added stuff about coinage ITTL, something noticeably missing in the latest chapter. If you wanna check it out, click this link (HERE) but to summarize, it's basically Tokugawa coinage just established at different times and specifically under Oda Nobutada.
And not sure, I'll read up more and may discuss it in the future.
Not particularly.
I'll consider getting into labor systems of cash crop agriculture in Oda Japan in a future chapter but Japan abolished slavery so there's definitely a difference. Sugarcane production is also not the dominant part of the economy of any region in Japan, just important enough to be significant.
And not sure, I'll read up more and may discuss it in the future.
There's a lot of centralization around Awari like how a lot of trade is centralized around Iriebashi on Bireitou due to the majority-Japanese populations in both cities in contrast to the overall demographics of the province. I definitely need to spend more time doing research on the history of the Philippines and may enact changes retroacyively.
ISTM that the big question is how much Japan participates in long-distance carrying trade. In the OTL Age of Sail, that was a European monopoly.
It depends on what you would define as long-distance trade. Japanese merchants are definitely very active and even dominant in some respects all over Southeast Asia and even now have a respectable presence on the Indian subcontinent. But there is no continuous flow towards Africa, the Middle East, or Europe.
They could but they want to keep the trade access to Spanish America and Maguindanao is a friendly power.
Besides — Spanish Philippines is practically Finlandised already.
That said — what are relations between Awari, Manila, and Azuchi like? Have trade relations between the first two restarted even without the normalisation of diplomatic relations, or are the borders at Pangasinan still too smoldering for both sides to start intensifying their overland trade?
Trans-oceanic. SE Asia is Japan's back yard - 5,000 km away, with "stepping stones" in between (the Ryukyus, Taiwan, Luzon), and few voyages longer than 1,000 km. By comparison, Spanish, Portuguese, Dutch, English, and French merchants and mariners are active up to 20,000 km from home, routinely making 5,000 km crossings. These activities are immensely profitable. ISTM that Japanese will perceive that, want to get in on the action, and at some point begin to compete with Europeans outside their east Asian neighborhood.