So the Miracle of the House of Brandenburg during the Seven Years' War does not happen, and Brandenburg-Prussia gets completely overrun by enemy forces. What would be the peace terms forced upon them? other than the return of Silesia, of course. Is the state partitioned? Pay reparations and that is it? Etc.?
No Miracle of the House of Brandenburg, Peace Terms?
- Thread starter da Racontor
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AFAIK, there were 2 "miracles": the 1st after Kunersdorf and 2nd after the death of Empress Elizabeth. Which one are you talking about?
I was originally thinking about the second, but either would be interesting.
If it’s the second then at a minimum I assume Austria would be getting back Silesia and Russia either getting East Prussia directly or East Prussia going to Poland in exchange for Russian gains elsewhere. Not sure how much further Russia and Austria would want to punish Prussia. Is Frederick losing his elector title a possibility or too drastic/pointless?
By the time of the 2nd the real danger of Prussia being overrun by the allied armies was over. Russia was still formally at war but its main army had been staying on the PLC territory "guarding" its supply depots and, to quote its commander, preserving soldiers' lives. The main action was in Pomerania where a separate corps commanded by Rumiantsev forced capitulation of Kolberg thus ensuring supply of the Russian troops by the sea (occupied PLC territory was already looted and transporting supplies by land was a cumbersome task). Relations between the allies had been fundamentally spoiled and the only thing that kept Russia at war was Elizabeth's personal hate of Old Fritz.
Absence of the 1st miracle did have some potential if (a) Daun was ready to act much more aggressively than it was his habit and (b) Austrians could provide adequate supplies for the Russian army. Taking into an account that (a) would require a different personality and (b) was rather difficult to provide physically in a territory already devastated by the years of fighting, the miracle was not too "miraculous". You can also add (c): neither Daun nor Saltykov had been ready to take excessive risks because, unlike Fritz, they were accountable to their governments. Even with a crushing defeat at Kunersdorf, Fritz was far from running out of his reserves and "overrunning" the whole Prussia-Brandenburg required more troops than allies had, the different generals in charge of these troops and a military mentality (and organization) which was not quite there, yet, until Napoleonic times.
With or without the "2nd miracle" Austrian chances to get back Silesia were minimal: after the 1st one Austro-Russian relations had been spoiled and cooperation pretty much "minimized". It was quite clear when Elizabeth appointed the last Russian commander, Buturlin: it was joked that this one will produce "neither war nor peace" and prediction came true.
Giving East Prussia to the PLC was in the initial plans but it implied getting a "compensation": Courland and some unidentified territories on PLC's south. Anyway, the initial idea was probably re-thought because population of the East Prussia was forced to swear loyalty to Elizabeth (the obvious next step would be Russian annexation of everything between EP and the Russian territories).
As for the Old Fritz, at least Russian initial plan said nothing about taking away his elector's position, the purpose was just a practical reduction of his power by taking away pieces of his territories.
So seems like Russia is the big winner here. Would getting East Prussia lead to an earlier end of the PLC or is that too drastic a shift in the balance of power? I imagine ITTL Austria would be more fearful of Russian power and Prussia might be looking for vengeance.
FillyofDelphi
Banned
If Russia looks like they're going to fully absorb/dominate the PLC after Prussia gets a hard smackdown and Russia looks like they're the ones in the position to becoming the unbalancing factor in the European power balance by achieving hegemony over the east, I imagine there will be a big international stink over the further creep of St. Petersburg's influence. Reformists in Poland will probably be getting the support of Austria (Since they're the main power who'd lose in the event of rampaging Bear), and could get backing from their French ally for this policy (Who, having still be mostly kicked out of the colonial game by Britain, will be looking to build her Imperial influence in a now more up-for-grabs North Germany). Britain, of course, will be absolutely giddy about Louis XIV and Peter/Cathrine (Depending on how that whole affair plays out) holding each other in check, and the Turks will be happy about Russian attention being directed back north.