So, I am interested to see where we think South Africa and the World would have ended up if Paul Kruger, for whatever reason, did not stay President past the 1893 election. He could lose, refuse to stand, retire, travel or die, but for whatever reason, someone else wins.
Why the 1893 Election? Well, it is the closest election prior to the Jameson Raid while still being some years out. If the POD is sufficiently far back, perhaps some of the immediate preconditions to the Raid will change and no Raid or the like will happen.
Why is the Raid important? Well, imo, it was the single most important sundering event between Afrikaners and the British prior to the Second South African War. There were many other deep seated issues that made the relationship between the Colonies, the Empire and the Republics fraught and liable to conflict (diamonds, gold, territorial expansion (Rhodesia etc), political rights of British residents of ZAR etc), but the Jameson Raid helped turn the "loyal" Afrikaner populations of the turn against the British/Colonial governments and helped make the later war become as much a war between the Afrikaner peoples and the British Empire. A culture war as much as a regular war.
With no, or a lesser South African War, or at least one where the Afrikaner populations of the Cape or Natal stay largely loyal (and no concentration camps occur), both Britain/Empire and the South African colonies or republics may turn out rather differently.
1. There may be no Union of South Africa - there may instead remain a patchwork of small white colonies or republics, alongside the British Crown tribal territories and the German & Portuguese territories. It is probable that the Cape and Natal unite though, into a British Dominion, given the example in Canada, Australia and NZ.
Maybe they do all join a looser commercial union of some kind. Like a proto EFTA or ASEAN. Close friends, but different countries?
2. Without a big war in SA, Britain's feet of clay will not be so visible. Nor however will have the Dominions had to unite behind Britain and the Empire in the way that they did. So if there is a Great War sometime after the turn of the century the Empire may be worse prepared.
3. On the other hand, maybe tensions in Europe may be slightly lessened if the rest of Europe doesn't despise Britain for their conduct as per OTL?
I think the Germans and British will fall out to some degree either way, but without a public telegram to Kruger maybe the Kaiser wouldn't be such a figure of hate in Britain. Maybe the Dutch might be slightly more favourably inclined to the British, if their co-nationalists are subjected to a vicious war and murderous peace?
The butterflies could be huge
4. Race!
The Afrikaner renaissasance would probably carry on either way, clearly solidifying into a distinct cultural group, alongside Dutch, but not Dutch. However without the OTL War and the mass death of civilians, or the Raid, there will be a clearer split between those who are British and those who live in the Republics. Identity will also not be so clearly based on opposition to the Hated British. Maybe High Dutch retains a stronger hold on "higher culture"?
Other races - Black/Indian/Coloured/Chinese etc
I don't see this changing much initially, but with at least 4-5 different national units or no war, or the influence of the OFS/Transvaal/Natal/etc on the Cape, the latter will retain its slightly more enlightened franchise?
Thoughts?
Why the 1893 Election? Well, it is the closest election prior to the Jameson Raid while still being some years out. If the POD is sufficiently far back, perhaps some of the immediate preconditions to the Raid will change and no Raid or the like will happen.
Why is the Raid important? Well, imo, it was the single most important sundering event between Afrikaners and the British prior to the Second South African War. There were many other deep seated issues that made the relationship between the Colonies, the Empire and the Republics fraught and liable to conflict (diamonds, gold, territorial expansion (Rhodesia etc), political rights of British residents of ZAR etc), but the Jameson Raid helped turn the "loyal" Afrikaner populations of the turn against the British/Colonial governments and helped make the later war become as much a war between the Afrikaner peoples and the British Empire. A culture war as much as a regular war.
With no, or a lesser South African War, or at least one where the Afrikaner populations of the Cape or Natal stay largely loyal (and no concentration camps occur), both Britain/Empire and the South African colonies or republics may turn out rather differently.
1. There may be no Union of South Africa - there may instead remain a patchwork of small white colonies or republics, alongside the British Crown tribal territories and the German & Portuguese territories. It is probable that the Cape and Natal unite though, into a British Dominion, given the example in Canada, Australia and NZ.
Maybe they do all join a looser commercial union of some kind. Like a proto EFTA or ASEAN. Close friends, but different countries?
2. Without a big war in SA, Britain's feet of clay will not be so visible. Nor however will have the Dominions had to unite behind Britain and the Empire in the way that they did. So if there is a Great War sometime after the turn of the century the Empire may be worse prepared.
3. On the other hand, maybe tensions in Europe may be slightly lessened if the rest of Europe doesn't despise Britain for their conduct as per OTL?
I think the Germans and British will fall out to some degree either way, but without a public telegram to Kruger maybe the Kaiser wouldn't be such a figure of hate in Britain. Maybe the Dutch might be slightly more favourably inclined to the British, if their co-nationalists are subjected to a vicious war and murderous peace?
The butterflies could be huge
4. Race!
The Afrikaner renaissasance would probably carry on either way, clearly solidifying into a distinct cultural group, alongside Dutch, but not Dutch. However without the OTL War and the mass death of civilians, or the Raid, there will be a clearer split between those who are British and those who live in the Republics. Identity will also not be so clearly based on opposition to the Hated British. Maybe High Dutch retains a stronger hold on "higher culture"?
Other races - Black/Indian/Coloured/Chinese etc
I don't see this changing much initially, but with at least 4-5 different national units or no war, or the influence of the OFS/Transvaal/Natal/etc on the Cape, the latter will retain its slightly more enlightened franchise?
Thoughts?
