"The time has come to stop telling the American people only what they want them to hear, and start talking frankly about the sacrifices we must all make."
National Unity 1980: A John Anderson Presidency
- Thread starter Fighting Bob
- Start date
"The time has come to stop telling the American people only what they want them to hear, and start talking frankly about the sacrifices we must all make."
Chapter 1: The Entrance of the Maverick
Chapter 1: The Entrance of the Maverick
"There is no doubt that John Anderson's campaign has influenced my strategy in New Hampshire,"-John McCain during an interview in 2000.
When John Anderson entered the race it was not with a splash, but a drip. Despite being well known for his independent streak and pragmatic approach in Congress, he was virtually unknown to the American public. This, however, was not the biggest obstacle he faced in his campaign to secure the Republican nomination. The main issue was that he was a Liberal Republican, a dying breed who were increasingly at odds with the conservative and southern-oriented direction of the party. The clock had been ticking for them ever since 1964 when the popular New York Nelson Rockefeller had been defeated by senator Barry Goldwater who openly advocated for the use of nukes in Vietnam and the partial privatization of Social Security. It had been ticking ever faster since the rise of Ronald Reagan and the end of the Nixon presidency. It had taken the united effort of the Republican establishment to stop Reagan from overthrowing an incumbent president, Gerald Ford in 1976 and now it seemed as though Reagan was destined to be the nominee. To make matters worse he did not even have the support of the majority of Liberal Republicans, a small minority in the party. They remained undecided as Lowell Weicker and Howard Baker announced their candidacies and as speculation mounted that Charles Percy, Charles Mathias, or even Gerald Ford might run to take up the mantle of the Rockefeller Republicans. His poll numbers remained dismal throughout 1979, peaking in July at 3% and declining in November to 0%. But Anderson carried on undeterred. Quickly realizing that he had no shot of even making a decent showing in Iowa he focused all his resources in New Hampshire. He would let Reagan sweep the first few contests before garnering a second place win in the granite state establishing himself as the main opponent of Reagan. He still remained confident that the voters would choose him an honest and effective legislator over an aging B movie actor. It would have helped if he had the charisma of some of the other candidates like Connally and Reagan or a large war-chest like Bush, yet he had neither. But he had something which was especially suited for the famously independent granite state, uniqueness. Unlike any of the other candidates in the race he would not pander to voters and tell them what they wanted to hear, in fact he often did the opposite. He would draw the ire of a crowd of gun owners by advocating gun control in a speech he gave to them as well as many other groups of voters who did not like what he had to say in other speeches. Yet this strategy was oddly starting to work. Initially met with apathy by the voters of New Hampshire, they soon started to warm up to him. While his policy proposals were not universally popular he gathered more and more support in the state with his moderate politics and use of "Straight Talk." By the beginning of the New Year it seemed he had a strong base of support in the state which would only increase as Weicker dropped out and Percy, Mathias, and most importantly Ford announced they weren't running. As he campaigned he also spent a great deal of time prepping for the first Republican debate between the different candidates in Iowa. He doubled down on his maverick persona in front of a national audience while he directed a few attacks at the absent Reagan who had decided to skip the debate. While the most memorable candidates in the debate were Connally with his Texas charm and Dole with his one liners, Anderson's performance in the debate was well received, further increasing his polling numbers and name recognition . Everything continued as expected for Anderson and it seemed as though things were progressing well for him. However, everything changed on January 21st, the day of the Iowa Caucasus.
"There is no doubt that John Anderson's campaign has influenced my strategy in New Hampshire,"-John McCain during an interview in 2000.
When John Anderson entered the race it was not with a splash, but a drip. Despite being well known for his independent streak and pragmatic approach in Congress, he was virtually unknown to the American public. This, however, was not the biggest obstacle he faced in his campaign to secure the Republican nomination. The main issue was that he was a Liberal Republican, a dying breed who were increasingly at odds with the conservative and southern-oriented direction of the party. The clock had been ticking for them ever since 1964 when the popular New York Nelson Rockefeller had been defeated by senator Barry Goldwater who openly advocated for the use of nukes in Vietnam and the partial privatization of Social Security. It had been ticking ever faster since the rise of Ronald Reagan and the end of the Nixon presidency. It had taken the united effort of the Republican establishment to stop Reagan from overthrowing an incumbent president, Gerald Ford in 1976 and now it seemed as though Reagan was destined to be the nominee. To make matters worse he did not even have the support of the majority of Liberal Republicans, a small minority in the party. They remained undecided as Lowell Weicker and Howard Baker announced their candidacies and as speculation mounted that Charles Percy, Charles Mathias, or even Gerald Ford might run to take up the mantle of the Rockefeller Republicans. His poll numbers remained dismal throughout 1979, peaking in July at 3% and declining in November to 0%. But Anderson carried on undeterred. Quickly realizing that he had no shot of even making a decent showing in Iowa he focused all his resources in New Hampshire. He would let Reagan sweep the first few contests before garnering a second place win in the granite state establishing himself as the main opponent of Reagan. He still remained confident that the voters would choose him an honest and effective legislator over an aging B movie actor. It would have helped if he had the charisma of some of the other candidates like Connally and Reagan or a large war-chest like Bush, yet he had neither. But he had something which was especially suited for the famously independent granite state, uniqueness. Unlike any of the other candidates in the race he would not pander to voters and tell them what they wanted to hear, in fact he often did the opposite. He would draw the ire of a crowd of gun owners by advocating gun control in a speech he gave to them as well as many other groups of voters who did not like what he had to say in other speeches. Yet this strategy was oddly starting to work. Initially met with apathy by the voters of New Hampshire, they soon started to warm up to him. While his policy proposals were not universally popular he gathered more and more support in the state with his moderate politics and use of "Straight Talk." By the beginning of the New Year it seemed he had a strong base of support in the state which would only increase as Weicker dropped out and Percy, Mathias, and most importantly Ford announced they weren't running. As he campaigned he also spent a great deal of time prepping for the first Republican debate between the different candidates in Iowa. He doubled down on his maverick persona in front of a national audience while he directed a few attacks at the absent Reagan who had decided to skip the debate. While the most memorable candidates in the debate were Connally with his Texas charm and Dole with his one liners, Anderson's performance in the debate was well received, further increasing his polling numbers and name recognition . Everything continued as expected for Anderson and it seemed as though things were progressing well for him. However, everything changed on January 21st, the day of the Iowa Caucasus.
Thank you, this is my first timeline. I think John Anderson is a very underused person in this forum so I'm looking forward to creating a scenario about him. I'd be happy to take any questions or suggestions regarding the timeline.
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Chapter 2: Iowa and New Hampshire
Chapter 2: Iowa and New Hampshire
"I got the big mo!" George Bush on the night of the Iowa Caucus.
(Bush celebrating in Des Moines)
As Anderson sat watching the results return from Iowa, he didn't know what to make of it. The unthinkable has happened. Reagan had lost. Not to Dole, Connally, or Baker, but to George Bush. The former CIA director who embodied the East Coast Establishment that was so hated in rural America had beaten Ronald Reagan in sparsely populated Iowa 31 to 29 percent with Baker coming in 3rd with 15 percent, Connally in fourth with 9 percent, Crane in fifth with 6 percent, and Anderson in sixth place with 5 percent edging out Dole who came in dead last with barley over a percent of the vote. On the one hand, Anderson was relieved. Winning the Republican nomination against Reagan was always going to be an almost impossible challenge, but the fact that he had beaten in the first contest signified that he was not invulnerable. He could not help but secretly hope that his age and his performance in Iowa would derail his campaign and prevent the ultra-conservatives from taking over the party. On the other hand, there was George Bush. Anderson had just begun to acquire the support of liberal and moderate Republicans as he presented himself as the centrist alternative to Reagan. Then, suddenly Bush had derailed his whole strategy. He had been on the verge of getting the backing of several key figures in the party's progressive wing like Javits and Weicker, but now they remained neutral as a new more viable moderate candidate emerged. He knew things were getting bad when Pete McCloskey, a Republican even more liberal than he was endorsed Bush just a few days after the caucus. He knew that if he was to remain viable in the race he would have to go on the attack. He would travel tirelessly across New Hampshire giving his usual message of straight talk and common sense while mixing in attacks against Reagan, which amounted to calling him, "A man of good character, but of little substance," as well as deriding Bush with oddly conservative rhetoric, calling him, "An agent of the establishment who does not understand or experience the problems of every day Americans," as well as saying, "A vote for Bush is a vote for the status quo." By ignoring the other candidates, Anderson positioned himself as the common sense alternative to both Reagan and Bush, which he hoped would give him at least a third-place showing the state, enough to keep his candidacy alive. Luckily for him, an opportunity would soon present itself. After losing both Iowa and Puerto Rico to Bush, Reagan knew that he had to shake up the race to stay relevant. If he lost in New Hampshire his campaign would be finished. With the stakes in mind he and his campaign set to work for the next debate in Nashua, where they had a trick up their sleeve that would make Tricky Dick proud. The debate was scheduled just three days before the primaries and Bush and Reagan had agreed that the debate would be between just the two of them. But unbeknownst to Bush, Reagan had invited the rest of the candidates to the debate. When Bush arrived that night for the debate he was furious and tried to get Reagan to remove the other candidates and fulfill their deal, but Reagan refused and Bush reluctantly went to debate with the other candidates. Tricked and unprepared, he was in for a rough night as Reagan stole the spotlight and he looked weak in comparison. In an attempt to redirect the attention back towards himself, he would make a horrible gaff, saying that he was an outsider and a businessman who was different from the other politicians on the stage, a mistake Anderson would pounce on, his response while by no means the most remarkable of that night would still haunt Bush.
"Well if being an outsider involves being a part of a wealthy and politically connected family, serving at the highest levels of Congress and the State Department, as well as defending a politically disgraced president then yes Mr Bush is an outsider."
The attack against Bush for his association with President Nixon during his time at the head of the RNC came out of nowhere, and for a few seconds, he remained speechless. Then as he delivered a meandering defense of his role in Watergate, Reagan interrupted him, saying the second most famous line from the debate.
"If George Bush is an outsider then I'm as young as a spring chicken."
Reagan's remark at the expense of Bush prompted the other candidates to start laughing as many members of the audience joined in, while Bush sat there with a forced smile on his face. But the thing that people would remember most about the debate was its ending. The moderators had told all the candidates except Bush and Reagan to shorten their closing statements and when Reagan attempted to grant the other candidates equal speaking time the moderator had attempted to turn off Reagan's microphone. In a rage Reagan had stood up and proclaimed, "Mr. Green I am paying for these microphones!", drawing the applause of both the audience as well as the other candidates who stood up and clapped, even a humiliated Bush. By the end of the night, everyone knew that Reagan was going to win New Hampshire, the only question was who would come in second place. With Bush weakened, Anderson wasted no time pummeling him even him more. He received the added boost of an endorsement from Paul Newman the night after the debate who by no means was a conservative icon still brought more support and funding for the campaign. With large donations from Newman, he was able to buy critical ad space just days before the primary, which helped spread his message and attack Bush's campaign, after Anderson decided that it would be futile to try and bring down Reagan's support in the state.
(Paul Newman's endorsement of Anderson in a widely circulated ad would later be considered to be a decisive factor in his showing in New Hampshire)
In the lead-up to the primary Bush had tried his best to fend off attacks from both Reagan and Anderson as well as launch some of his own, yet these efforts would be in vain. Bush's disastrous performance in the debate had killed any chance he had of winning the primary. All he could hope for was that his defeat would not be a blowout. Realizing that Anderson was now his main competitor for second place in the state Bush and his campaign manager Jim Baker shifted most of their attacks on Anderson, yet it was too little too late and Bush would pay the price for ignoring Anderson's candidacy before the debate. On the night of February 26th as Anderson had spent his last day campaigning in Concord he knew his efforts in the state had paid off. It was clear early in the night that Reagan would win by at least fifteen points yet it was not so clear who would follow him as Anderson and Bush were neck and neck for most of the night. However, that changed when all the returns came in from the college towns of Nassau and Manchester where Anderson had spent so much time speaking to the city's young people. By midnight the results had come in. Reagan had won with 45 percent of the vote, and in second place was John Anderson. Once polling at 0 percent he had managed to capture twenty-four percent of the primary vote. Bush came in third place with 17 percent of the vote, trailing Anderson by seven points. In fourth place was Howard Baker who dropped out of the race the following day after receiving just 7 percent of the vote. As Anderson conceded the race to Reagan he could barely contain his excitement as he thanked his supporters and promised them that they would win the upcoming primaries in Vermont and Massachusetts. After giving a considerably less enthusiastic concession speech Bush and Jim Baker considered their options and reevaluated their strategy for the upcoming contests. Bush normally slow to anger raged privately in front of Baker. Anderson had thrown a wrench in his plans and now the path to the nomination would be much more daunting.
(Anderson following his upset second place showing in New Hampshire)
"I got the big mo!" George Bush on the night of the Iowa Caucus.
(Bush celebrating in Des Moines)
As Anderson sat watching the results return from Iowa, he didn't know what to make of it. The unthinkable has happened. Reagan had lost. Not to Dole, Connally, or Baker, but to George Bush. The former CIA director who embodied the East Coast Establishment that was so hated in rural America had beaten Ronald Reagan in sparsely populated Iowa 31 to 29 percent with Baker coming in 3rd with 15 percent, Connally in fourth with 9 percent, Crane in fifth with 6 percent, and Anderson in sixth place with 5 percent edging out Dole who came in dead last with barley over a percent of the vote. On the one hand, Anderson was relieved. Winning the Republican nomination against Reagan was always going to be an almost impossible challenge, but the fact that he had beaten in the first contest signified that he was not invulnerable. He could not help but secretly hope that his age and his performance in Iowa would derail his campaign and prevent the ultra-conservatives from taking over the party. On the other hand, there was George Bush. Anderson had just begun to acquire the support of liberal and moderate Republicans as he presented himself as the centrist alternative to Reagan. Then, suddenly Bush had derailed his whole strategy. He had been on the verge of getting the backing of several key figures in the party's progressive wing like Javits and Weicker, but now they remained neutral as a new more viable moderate candidate emerged. He knew things were getting bad when Pete McCloskey, a Republican even more liberal than he was endorsed Bush just a few days after the caucus. He knew that if he was to remain viable in the race he would have to go on the attack. He would travel tirelessly across New Hampshire giving his usual message of straight talk and common sense while mixing in attacks against Reagan, which amounted to calling him, "A man of good character, but of little substance," as well as deriding Bush with oddly conservative rhetoric, calling him, "An agent of the establishment who does not understand or experience the problems of every day Americans," as well as saying, "A vote for Bush is a vote for the status quo." By ignoring the other candidates, Anderson positioned himself as the common sense alternative to both Reagan and Bush, which he hoped would give him at least a third-place showing the state, enough to keep his candidacy alive. Luckily for him, an opportunity would soon present itself. After losing both Iowa and Puerto Rico to Bush, Reagan knew that he had to shake up the race to stay relevant. If he lost in New Hampshire his campaign would be finished. With the stakes in mind he and his campaign set to work for the next debate in Nashua, where they had a trick up their sleeve that would make Tricky Dick proud. The debate was scheduled just three days before the primaries and Bush and Reagan had agreed that the debate would be between just the two of them. But unbeknownst to Bush, Reagan had invited the rest of the candidates to the debate. When Bush arrived that night for the debate he was furious and tried to get Reagan to remove the other candidates and fulfill their deal, but Reagan refused and Bush reluctantly went to debate with the other candidates. Tricked and unprepared, he was in for a rough night as Reagan stole the spotlight and he looked weak in comparison. In an attempt to redirect the attention back towards himself, he would make a horrible gaff, saying that he was an outsider and a businessman who was different from the other politicians on the stage, a mistake Anderson would pounce on, his response while by no means the most remarkable of that night would still haunt Bush.
"Well if being an outsider involves being a part of a wealthy and politically connected family, serving at the highest levels of Congress and the State Department, as well as defending a politically disgraced president then yes Mr Bush is an outsider."
The attack against Bush for his association with President Nixon during his time at the head of the RNC came out of nowhere, and for a few seconds, he remained speechless. Then as he delivered a meandering defense of his role in Watergate, Reagan interrupted him, saying the second most famous line from the debate.
"If George Bush is an outsider then I'm as young as a spring chicken."
Reagan's remark at the expense of Bush prompted the other candidates to start laughing as many members of the audience joined in, while Bush sat there with a forced smile on his face. But the thing that people would remember most about the debate was its ending. The moderators had told all the candidates except Bush and Reagan to shorten their closing statements and when Reagan attempted to grant the other candidates equal speaking time the moderator had attempted to turn off Reagan's microphone. In a rage Reagan had stood up and proclaimed, "Mr. Green I am paying for these microphones!", drawing the applause of both the audience as well as the other candidates who stood up and clapped, even a humiliated Bush. By the end of the night, everyone knew that Reagan was going to win New Hampshire, the only question was who would come in second place. With Bush weakened, Anderson wasted no time pummeling him even him more. He received the added boost of an endorsement from Paul Newman the night after the debate who by no means was a conservative icon still brought more support and funding for the campaign. With large donations from Newman, he was able to buy critical ad space just days before the primary, which helped spread his message and attack Bush's campaign, after Anderson decided that it would be futile to try and bring down Reagan's support in the state.
In the lead-up to the primary Bush had tried his best to fend off attacks from both Reagan and Anderson as well as launch some of his own, yet these efforts would be in vain. Bush's disastrous performance in the debate had killed any chance he had of winning the primary. All he could hope for was that his defeat would not be a blowout. Realizing that Anderson was now his main competitor for second place in the state Bush and his campaign manager Jim Baker shifted most of their attacks on Anderson, yet it was too little too late and Bush would pay the price for ignoring Anderson's candidacy before the debate. On the night of February 26th as Anderson had spent his last day campaigning in Concord he knew his efforts in the state had paid off. It was clear early in the night that Reagan would win by at least fifteen points yet it was not so clear who would follow him as Anderson and Bush were neck and neck for most of the night. However, that changed when all the returns came in from the college towns of Nassau and Manchester where Anderson had spent so much time speaking to the city's young people. By midnight the results had come in. Reagan had won with 45 percent of the vote, and in second place was John Anderson. Once polling at 0 percent he had managed to capture twenty-four percent of the primary vote. Bush came in third place with 17 percent of the vote, trailing Anderson by seven points. In fourth place was Howard Baker who dropped out of the race the following day after receiving just 7 percent of the vote. As Anderson conceded the race to Reagan he could barely contain his excitement as he thanked his supporters and promised them that they would win the upcoming primaries in Vermont and Massachusetts. After giving a considerably less enthusiastic concession speech Bush and Jim Baker considered their options and reevaluated their strategy for the upcoming contests. Bush normally slow to anger raged privately in front of Baker. Anderson had thrown a wrench in his plans and now the path to the nomination would be much more daunting.
(Anderson following his upset second place showing in New Hampshire)
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While Reagan, Bush, and Anderson were busy focusing on their successes and failures in Iowa and New Hampshire, another candidate was watching in amusement. As the three men continued to fight and bloody themselves like hogs, this man had spent his time charming everyone he could, gaining endorsements, and wheeling and dealing in a state he knew so well. Events were about to take an interesting turn south of the Mason-Dixon line.
While Reagan, Bush, and Anderson were busy focusing on their successes and failures in Iowa and New Hampshire, another candidate was watching in amusement. As the three men continued to fight and bloody themselves like hogs, this man had spent his time charming everyone he could, gaining endorsements, and wheeling and dealing in a state he knew so well. Events were about to take an interesting turn south of the Mason-Dixon line.
Chapter 3: The State of Thurmond
Chapter 3: The State of Thurmond
"Governor Reagan and I both used to be Democrats but let me tell you, there's a big difference between being a Democrat from Texas and being a Democrat from Hollywood,"-John Connolly speaking at a campaign stop.
![Former Governor of Texas John Connally at a lectern, announcing his running for the 1980 Republican nomination at the National Press Club, Washington, D.C.] / TOH. | Library of Congress](https://tile.loc.gov/storage-services/service/pnp/ppmsca/56500/56530v.jpg "Former Governor of Texas John Connally at a lectern, announcing his running for the 1980 Republican nomination at the National Press Club, Washington, D.C.] / TOH. | Library of Congress")
(Connolly giving a speech in Charleston)
There was one notable absence from the debate in Nassau, the former governor of Texas and the former Secretary of the Treasury John Connolly hadn't even been in New Hampshire that night. He had caught wind of Reagan's trick and had declined to show up, not wanting Reagan to steal all the spotlight away from him. Nonetheless, it had still been an enjoyable spectacle for Connolly as he watched it unfold from his campaign headquarters. While he didn't care much for Reagan, it had still been entertaining to watch Bush get clobbered on national television. The mutual hatred between him and Bush had gone back to 1964 when Bush had tried to run for a senate seat in Texas while he had been the state's Democratic governor and it had only intensified since the 70s when Connolly had become a Republican and the two had fought for control of the states GOP. He resented Bush since while he had to work his way up to power as an aide of LBJ in the Senate, Bush had bought his way into politics with the wealth from his father who was a well-known senator from Connecticut. He thought Bush was weak and couldn't hide his pleasure as his opinion about the man was proven correct to the nation. He had been almost as jubilant as his rival came in third in New Hampshire behind a guy who almost nobody had heard of. While he was normally a realist, he had been incredibly optimistic since the New Year had started and he had good reason to be. While the other candidates had been duking it out in Iowa and New Hampshire, Connolly had been touring the state of South Carolina for months. Apart from a few visits to DC and New York for fundraisers and a few token appearances in Iowa, he had been locked in the state, visiting the states 46 counties multiple times over. His strategy in many ways was quite similar to Anderson's in New Hampshire, but there was one crucial difference between the two of them, people already knew who Connolly was. While it may have been advantageous for another candidate to be well known, it was not for Connolly. Many voters associated him with corruption during his tenure as Governor as well as with Watergate during his role in the Nixon administration. He had tried to turn his record into a positive by mentioning his leadership skills as well as establishing himself as the candidate with the strongest foreign policy platform earning him the nickname, "the Saudi's favorite candidate." But this had little effect on the race and Connolly quickly realized he would have to change his strategy as the race went on. Remembering the campaigns of his fellow Southerners Wallace and Maddox he settled on one. He would attack Reagan from the right. Originally many of his advisors were skeptical of this plan. Reagan was the hero of the Republican right and Connolly had only been a Republican for 8 years, but he went ahead with it. Luckily for him, he would have plenty of ammunition to attack Reagan with. During his time in California Reagan had signed into law the Mulford Act which prohibited carrying firearms in public. While created to weaken the Black Panther Party it was still gun control which was deeply unpopular among Republican voters in the state. Even more damaging for Reagan was the fact that he had signed an act that had eased abortion access just a few years before Roe V. Wade had been enacted which would hardly be welcome news to the state's substantial evangelical population. Connolly did everything he could to make sure that every potential Republican voter would hear about these acts before the day of the primary as he exaggerated them in ads that ran across the state along with Connolly also bringing up Reagan's past as a New Deal liberal. He would only be helped further by the endorsement of the titan of the state, Strom Thurmond who would appear with Connolly at rallies in Charleston and Columbia. By the time the New Hampshire primary had ended, and when Reagan was finally able to focus on South Carolina he discovered that Connolly had significantly outraised and outspent him in the state and had been drawing large amounts of conservative and religious voters away from him. With less than a week away from the primary Reagan desperately started hurling attacks against Connolly for his alleged corruption and for misrepresenting his record as well as defending his conservative credentials. However, during one campaign speech in Greenville one of his attacks against Connolly would completely backfire as he informed them that Connolly was giving a speech in Laurens which he claimed was, "The birthplace of the Ku Klux Klan." Not only was the town not the birthplace of the KKK, it angered many of the white voters of the state who hated being associated with their segregationist past by Northerners as well as those who sympathized with the Klan. Connolly quickly pounced on Reagan's error the next day.
"The notion that the people of this state are in any way associated with the klan is deeply insulting and I think Governor Reagan owes the people of South Carolina an apology."
Reagan's polling would drop dramatically following his comments and his once commanding lead in the state reduced even further. In a last-ditch effort to stop Connolly, a political operative from the Reagan campaign named Lee Atwater would attempt to plant a story that claimed that Connolly had tried to buy the African American vote. However, few of South Carolina's major newspapers would run the story believing it to be too absurd since Connolly had been doing the most dog-whistling of any national candidate since George Wallace in his bid for the White House in 1968. The story would have virtually no impact on the race and Connolly and Reagan remained neck and neck as neither Bush nor Anderson had any substantial support in the state as they focused all their efforts on the Massachusetts and Vermont primaries which took place a few days before. However, just a day before the primary Reagan's tentative lead in the state would come crashing down. After much prodding from Connolly, Thurmond agreed to appear in an ad where he attacked Reagan. He only spoke for a few seconds, but those few seconds would cost Reagan the state.
"Governor Reagan is a good, decent man who I respect immensely, however, this is not just an election about character. This is an election about leadership and consistency. When John Connolly was governor of Texas he opposed bills that would have implemented gun control and expanded abortion. Unfortunately, Mr. Reagan can not say the same."
The ad only aired once, but the damage was done. When the results came in Connolly won the state with 49 percent of the vote, followed by Reagan with 37 percent. Bush followed with 9 percent and Anderson came in last with 3 percent. Reagan had once been so confident following his comeback victory in New Hampshire, but now he realized the road to victory would be a long one.
"Governor Reagan and I both used to be Democrats but let me tell you, there's a big difference between being a Democrat from Texas and being a Democrat from Hollywood,"-John Connolly speaking at a campaign stop.
(Connolly giving a speech in Charleston)
There was one notable absence from the debate in Nassau, the former governor of Texas and the former Secretary of the Treasury John Connolly hadn't even been in New Hampshire that night. He had caught wind of Reagan's trick and had declined to show up, not wanting Reagan to steal all the spotlight away from him. Nonetheless, it had still been an enjoyable spectacle for Connolly as he watched it unfold from his campaign headquarters. While he didn't care much for Reagan, it had still been entertaining to watch Bush get clobbered on national television. The mutual hatred between him and Bush had gone back to 1964 when Bush had tried to run for a senate seat in Texas while he had been the state's Democratic governor and it had only intensified since the 70s when Connolly had become a Republican and the two had fought for control of the states GOP. He resented Bush since while he had to work his way up to power as an aide of LBJ in the Senate, Bush had bought his way into politics with the wealth from his father who was a well-known senator from Connecticut. He thought Bush was weak and couldn't hide his pleasure as his opinion about the man was proven correct to the nation. He had been almost as jubilant as his rival came in third in New Hampshire behind a guy who almost nobody had heard of. While he was normally a realist, he had been incredibly optimistic since the New Year had started and he had good reason to be. While the other candidates had been duking it out in Iowa and New Hampshire, Connolly had been touring the state of South Carolina for months. Apart from a few visits to DC and New York for fundraisers and a few token appearances in Iowa, he had been locked in the state, visiting the states 46 counties multiple times over. His strategy in many ways was quite similar to Anderson's in New Hampshire, but there was one crucial difference between the two of them, people already knew who Connolly was. While it may have been advantageous for another candidate to be well known, it was not for Connolly. Many voters associated him with corruption during his tenure as Governor as well as with Watergate during his role in the Nixon administration. He had tried to turn his record into a positive by mentioning his leadership skills as well as establishing himself as the candidate with the strongest foreign policy platform earning him the nickname, "the Saudi's favorite candidate." But this had little effect on the race and Connolly quickly realized he would have to change his strategy as the race went on. Remembering the campaigns of his fellow Southerners Wallace and Maddox he settled on one. He would attack Reagan from the right. Originally many of his advisors were skeptical of this plan. Reagan was the hero of the Republican right and Connolly had only been a Republican for 8 years, but he went ahead with it. Luckily for him, he would have plenty of ammunition to attack Reagan with. During his time in California Reagan had signed into law the Mulford Act which prohibited carrying firearms in public. While created to weaken the Black Panther Party it was still gun control which was deeply unpopular among Republican voters in the state. Even more damaging for Reagan was the fact that he had signed an act that had eased abortion access just a few years before Roe V. Wade had been enacted which would hardly be welcome news to the state's substantial evangelical population. Connolly did everything he could to make sure that every potential Republican voter would hear about these acts before the day of the primary as he exaggerated them in ads that ran across the state along with Connolly also bringing up Reagan's past as a New Deal liberal. He would only be helped further by the endorsement of the titan of the state, Strom Thurmond who would appear with Connolly at rallies in Charleston and Columbia. By the time the New Hampshire primary had ended, and when Reagan was finally able to focus on South Carolina he discovered that Connolly had significantly outraised and outspent him in the state and had been drawing large amounts of conservative and religious voters away from him. With less than a week away from the primary Reagan desperately started hurling attacks against Connolly for his alleged corruption and for misrepresenting his record as well as defending his conservative credentials. However, during one campaign speech in Greenville one of his attacks against Connolly would completely backfire as he informed them that Connolly was giving a speech in Laurens which he claimed was, "The birthplace of the Ku Klux Klan." Not only was the town not the birthplace of the KKK, it angered many of the white voters of the state who hated being associated with their segregationist past by Northerners as well as those who sympathized with the Klan. Connolly quickly pounced on Reagan's error the next day.
"The notion that the people of this state are in any way associated with the klan is deeply insulting and I think Governor Reagan owes the people of South Carolina an apology."
Reagan's polling would drop dramatically following his comments and his once commanding lead in the state reduced even further. In a last-ditch effort to stop Connolly, a political operative from the Reagan campaign named Lee Atwater would attempt to plant a story that claimed that Connolly had tried to buy the African American vote. However, few of South Carolina's major newspapers would run the story believing it to be too absurd since Connolly had been doing the most dog-whistling of any national candidate since George Wallace in his bid for the White House in 1968. The story would have virtually no impact on the race and Connolly and Reagan remained neck and neck as neither Bush nor Anderson had any substantial support in the state as they focused all their efforts on the Massachusetts and Vermont primaries which took place a few days before. However, just a day before the primary Reagan's tentative lead in the state would come crashing down. After much prodding from Connolly, Thurmond agreed to appear in an ad where he attacked Reagan. He only spoke for a few seconds, but those few seconds would cost Reagan the state.
"Governor Reagan is a good, decent man who I respect immensely, however, this is not just an election about character. This is an election about leadership and consistency. When John Connolly was governor of Texas he opposed bills that would have implemented gun control and expanded abortion. Unfortunately, Mr. Reagan can not say the same."
The ad only aired once, but the damage was done. When the results came in Connolly won the state with 49 percent of the vote, followed by Reagan with 37 percent. Bush followed with 9 percent and Anderson came in last with 3 percent. Reagan had once been so confident following his comeback victory in New Hampshire, but now he realized the road to victory would be a long one.
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Thanks, glad you like it. Third-party candidates are quite fun to think about.
Chapter 4: New England and the Deep South
Chapter 4: New England and the Deep South
"I am the only candidate who can beat Jimmy Carter while remaining true to Republican Values," George Bush speaking to supporters in Boston.
As the race continued, things went from bad to worse for George Bush. Once the frontrunner who had beaten Reagan, he was humiliated in a debate by the man who was 13 years his senior and had come in a distant third in a state he had a good shot at winning. The same newspapers that had compared him to Dwight D. Eisenhower and Reagan to Robert Taft in the 1952 race, now wrote off his candidacy and Anderson became the new darling of the press. But Bush remained determined as ever to stay in the race. As far as he was concerned the only reason he was doing so badly was because of Anderson. Bush was positive he could have gotten second in New Hampshire had it not been for that annoying congressman who had spent weeks attacking and running ads against him. He viewed him as nothing more than a spoiler who had stolen his campaign rhetoric about moderation and pragmatism and he was determined to prove that in the next contests, Vermont and Massachusetts. He had several advantages over Anderson. The first was that he was originally a native of New England before he had moved to Texas in his 20s and his family still had strong political connections in the region while Anderson was from the Midwest. He also had the backing of Eliot Richardson and Henry Cabot Lodge, two liberal republican legends in the state. With renewed confidence he wasted no time barnstorming both Vermont and Massachusetts as he doubled down on his attacks against Reagan and Anderson, the latter of whom the press noticed was targeted with special virulence. He attacked Reagan for being too conservative and unelectable while calling out Anderson for being too liberal and too similar to Carter. However, his attacks seemed to have little effect on Anderson whose support had continued to surge after New Hampshire. His message was especially popular in New England and his appeal as an outsider was enormous amid a bad economy and the Iranian hostage crisis. With less than a week till the two crisscrossed each of the states while Reagan only made a few appearances in Vermont and none in Massachusetts, doubting he could perform well in the state of Ted Kennedy. With Reagan largely a nonfactor Bush and Anderson spent most of their time attacking each other with Anderson constantly bringing up Bush's connection to Nixon and his establishment roots while Bush accused Anderson of being a Republican in name only which would lead him to quip, "What's the point of getting rid of Carter if you're just gonna replace him with another liberal?" He knew he would have to beat Anderson in at least one of the two states if he wanted to mount a comeback, but unfortunately for him, the results of the March 4th primary would be a disaster. Not only would Anderson would win in both states, but Bush would come in third in the contests.
Massachusetts primary
John Anderson-39%
Ronald Reagan-30%
George Bush-27%
John Connolly-3%
Vermont primary
John Anderson-43%
Ronald Reagan-32%
George Bush-23%
John Connolly-1%
His donors once so enthusiastic about his campaign following Iowa were now lukewarm at best to his campaign after he had come in third again against a liberal and a man who has barely campaigned. Many started jumping ship to the Reagan and Anderson campaigns. Many of his advisors urged him to drop out, even his son Jeb who said he should offer to join the Reagan campaign in getting a position in his cabinet. However Bush refused. He couldn't stomach the thought of either Reagan or Anderson becoming the nominee and he was confident that when Republican voters realized that their choices would either be those two they would support him as a compromise candidate. Even if he couldn't win outright he was sure he could win enough delegates to bargain with whoever the nominee might be.
"The only difference between George Bush and Ronald Reagan is that Reagan knows how to keep an audience awake for more than ten minutes," John Connolly, joking before a crowd in Montgomery.
To say that Connolly was becoming a thorn in Reagan's side would have been an understatement. Before Connolly's win in South Carolina, Reagan had expected an easy campaign in the South. The region had mostly voted for him over Ford in the 1976 election and as a result, he had taken the region's conservative and religious voters for granted as he had spent his time in Iowa and New Hampshire. A mistake he would pave for gravely on March 8th when he had lost South Carolina by twelve points. Now Connolly a man who didn't care at all about abortion or cultural issues was hammering Reagan over his actions as governor and threatened to derail his campaign just as Bush had in Iowa. Regrettably, for Reagan, there would be three consecutive southern primaries just three days after Connoly's win. Alabama, Georgia, and Flordia, just a few days earlier would have gone to Reagan easily but now they were up in the air. With little time to campaign Reagan focused almost all of his attention on Florida while sending surrogates to stump for him in Alabama and Georgia. Ironically Florida had been the only state that Reagan had lost in the last election, but he felt he had a better chance with the suburban voters of the state than in largely rural Georgia and Alabama. Connolly meanwhile spent a day in each state, hosting large rallies in Montgomery, Atlanta, and Miami where he continued to blast Reagan for his supposed social liberalism. Reagan meanwhile hit back at Connolly for his association with LBJ and the Great Society as well as his lack of fiscal conservatism saying, "Governor Connolly never met a tax increase or a welfare program he didn't like." With such little time to campaign the results of the primaries were up in the air up until the day of the primary. While not the major victory he received in South Carolina, Connolly was able to win both Georgia and Alabama and was just barely behind Reagan in Florida where Reagan's campaigning and appeal with suburbanites had paid off.
Alabama Primary
John Connally-44%
Ronald Reagan-40%
George Bush-12%
John Anderson-4%
Florida Primary
Ronald Reagan-38%
John Connolly-33%
George Bush-16%
John Anderson-12%
Georgia Primary
John Connolly-40%
Ronald Reagan-39%
George Bush-12%%
John Anderson-9%
While hardly the result that Reagan had hoped for, he was able to rest easy on the night of March 11th because he had at least won Florida. Even in Georgia and Alabama, the results had been far closer than in South Carolina and Reagan was confident that once voters saw through Connolly's blatant opportunism they would flock back to him. He could also rest in the knowledge that he had been the only candidate thus far in the Republican primary who had garnered support in both the North and the South and that despite several vicious blows thrown at him he had come out on top. Nancy however would not rest that night. She did not honestly think that Connolly, Anderson, or Bush could overtake her husband, but together they could draw enough votes to deadlock the convention and if that happened everything would be uncertain.
"I am the only candidate who can beat Jimmy Carter while remaining true to Republican Values," George Bush speaking to supporters in Boston.
As the race continued, things went from bad to worse for George Bush. Once the frontrunner who had beaten Reagan, he was humiliated in a debate by the man who was 13 years his senior and had come in a distant third in a state he had a good shot at winning. The same newspapers that had compared him to Dwight D. Eisenhower and Reagan to Robert Taft in the 1952 race, now wrote off his candidacy and Anderson became the new darling of the press. But Bush remained determined as ever to stay in the race. As far as he was concerned the only reason he was doing so badly was because of Anderson. Bush was positive he could have gotten second in New Hampshire had it not been for that annoying congressman who had spent weeks attacking and running ads against him. He viewed him as nothing more than a spoiler who had stolen his campaign rhetoric about moderation and pragmatism and he was determined to prove that in the next contests, Vermont and Massachusetts. He had several advantages over Anderson. The first was that he was originally a native of New England before he had moved to Texas in his 20s and his family still had strong political connections in the region while Anderson was from the Midwest. He also had the backing of Eliot Richardson and Henry Cabot Lodge, two liberal republican legends in the state. With renewed confidence he wasted no time barnstorming both Vermont and Massachusetts as he doubled down on his attacks against Reagan and Anderson, the latter of whom the press noticed was targeted with special virulence. He attacked Reagan for being too conservative and unelectable while calling out Anderson for being too liberal and too similar to Carter. However, his attacks seemed to have little effect on Anderson whose support had continued to surge after New Hampshire. His message was especially popular in New England and his appeal as an outsider was enormous amid a bad economy and the Iranian hostage crisis. With less than a week till the two crisscrossed each of the states while Reagan only made a few appearances in Vermont and none in Massachusetts, doubting he could perform well in the state of Ted Kennedy. With Reagan largely a nonfactor Bush and Anderson spent most of their time attacking each other with Anderson constantly bringing up Bush's connection to Nixon and his establishment roots while Bush accused Anderson of being a Republican in name only which would lead him to quip, "What's the point of getting rid of Carter if you're just gonna replace him with another liberal?" He knew he would have to beat Anderson in at least one of the two states if he wanted to mount a comeback, but unfortunately for him, the results of the March 4th primary would be a disaster. Not only would Anderson would win in both states, but Bush would come in third in the contests.
Massachusetts primary
John Anderson-39%
Ronald Reagan-30%
George Bush-27%
John Connolly-3%
Vermont primary
John Anderson-43%
Ronald Reagan-32%
George Bush-23%
John Connolly-1%
His donors once so enthusiastic about his campaign following Iowa were now lukewarm at best to his campaign after he had come in third again against a liberal and a man who has barely campaigned. Many started jumping ship to the Reagan and Anderson campaigns. Many of his advisors urged him to drop out, even his son Jeb who said he should offer to join the Reagan campaign in getting a position in his cabinet. However Bush refused. He couldn't stomach the thought of either Reagan or Anderson becoming the nominee and he was confident that when Republican voters realized that their choices would either be those two they would support him as a compromise candidate. Even if he couldn't win outright he was sure he could win enough delegates to bargain with whoever the nominee might be.
"The only difference between George Bush and Ronald Reagan is that Reagan knows how to keep an audience awake for more than ten minutes," John Connolly, joking before a crowd in Montgomery.
To say that Connolly was becoming a thorn in Reagan's side would have been an understatement. Before Connolly's win in South Carolina, Reagan had expected an easy campaign in the South. The region had mostly voted for him over Ford in the 1976 election and as a result, he had taken the region's conservative and religious voters for granted as he had spent his time in Iowa and New Hampshire. A mistake he would pave for gravely on March 8th when he had lost South Carolina by twelve points. Now Connolly a man who didn't care at all about abortion or cultural issues was hammering Reagan over his actions as governor and threatened to derail his campaign just as Bush had in Iowa. Regrettably, for Reagan, there would be three consecutive southern primaries just three days after Connoly's win. Alabama, Georgia, and Flordia, just a few days earlier would have gone to Reagan easily but now they were up in the air. With little time to campaign Reagan focused almost all of his attention on Florida while sending surrogates to stump for him in Alabama and Georgia. Ironically Florida had been the only state that Reagan had lost in the last election, but he felt he had a better chance with the suburban voters of the state than in largely rural Georgia and Alabama. Connolly meanwhile spent a day in each state, hosting large rallies in Montgomery, Atlanta, and Miami where he continued to blast Reagan for his supposed social liberalism. Reagan meanwhile hit back at Connolly for his association with LBJ and the Great Society as well as his lack of fiscal conservatism saying, "Governor Connolly never met a tax increase or a welfare program he didn't like." With such little time to campaign the results of the primaries were up in the air up until the day of the primary. While not the major victory he received in South Carolina, Connolly was able to win both Georgia and Alabama and was just barely behind Reagan in Florida where Reagan's campaigning and appeal with suburbanites had paid off.
Alabama Primary
John Connally-44%
Ronald Reagan-40%
George Bush-12%
John Anderson-4%
Florida Primary
Ronald Reagan-38%
John Connolly-33%
George Bush-16%
John Anderson-12%
Georgia Primary
John Connolly-40%
Ronald Reagan-39%
George Bush-12%%
John Anderson-9%
While hardly the result that Reagan had hoped for, he was able to rest easy on the night of March 11th because he had at least won Florida. Even in Georgia and Alabama, the results had been far closer than in South Carolina and Reagan was confident that once voters saw through Connolly's blatant opportunism they would flock back to him. He could also rest in the knowledge that he had been the only candidate thus far in the Republican primary who had garnered support in both the North and the South and that despite several vicious blows thrown at him he had come out on top. Nancy however would not rest that night. She did not honestly think that Connolly, Anderson, or Bush could overtake her husband, but together they could draw enough votes to deadlock the convention and if that happened everything would be uncertain.
Announcement
Announcement:
Hello everyone, sorry I am going on a trip so I won’t be able to write a new chapter until Friday probably. I’d be happy to read any thoughts or critiques anyone might have thus far regarding my writing or the timeline. Thanks.
Hello everyone, sorry I am going on a trip so I won’t be able to write a new chapter until Friday probably. I’d be happy to read any thoughts or critiques anyone might have thus far regarding my writing or the timeline. Thanks.
Thank you my friend. It will definitely be an ideological mix. In OTL he originally wanted either a progressive democrat or another liberal republican as his VP before he ultimately went with Patrick Lucey a moderate democrat. In this timeline he’ll pick a VP who will appeal to Kennedy supporters, but the rest of his cabinet will be filled with people across the political spectrum, mainly consisting of moderate Republicans and Democrats. In congress he’ll mainly cooperate with democrats on social issues while on fiscal issues he’ll mainly work with establishment Republicans, ignoring the supply side wing of the party. But that will start to change after the midterms.
Chapter 5: The Knight vs the Peanut Farmer
Chapter 5: The Knight vs the Peanut Farmer
"For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die. My friends vote your conscious this November," Ted Kennedy speech at the Democratic convention in New York.
Jimmy Carter would have been celebrating the disunity and mudslinging in the Republican primaries if it were not for the fact that his party was even less united. With a stagnating economy, the energy crisis, and rising inflation the least he could have asked for was an easy path to the convention, but for Senator Ted Kennedy that was too much to ask. Ever since 1968 after his brother's assassination, there had been calls for Kennedy to run, but each time he had declined. This was not due to a lack of ambition, but rather to a single event that he felt would kill any national campaign he started. Ever since 1969 he had been haunted by Chappaquiddick where he had killed a female staffer in a drunk driving accident, and had refused calls to run in both 1972 and 1976, although he could have easily won the nomination in both those years. But in 1979 he changed his mind. Tired of Carter's fiscal conservatism and ineffectiveness he laid the groundwork for a presidential campaign. On October 29th a "Kennedy for President Committee," was formed and he became a candidate the same day, yet, he planned to hold off his official announcement until November 7th. However, he would be forced to make his announcement sooner following an interview with Roger Mudd on November 4. During the interview, Mudd asked him why he wanted to be president, a seemingly simple question that caught Kennedy off guard since he was planning to hold off his presidential announcement. Instead of trying to evade the question he explained why he was running for president after a brief pause.
"Well, I'm planning on running because I don't believe that President Carter is an effective leader of either the democratic party or the country. His economic policies differentiate very little from President Ford's and he has not handled our domestic problems or our oil shortage adequately and I think our party and our nation needs a more liberal and a more capable alternative to the President, and I think I am that alternative."
While his long pause was noticed by some the main story from the interview was his campaign announcement. Initially, polls showed Kennedy beating Carter by wide margins, with one polling showing him beating Carter 54 to 20 percent. He also started to pick up endorsements from many members of the party's liberal wing like Mo Udall and George McGovern as well as its labor wing receiving endorsements from the AFL-CIO and other prominent unions upset with Carter's lax record on organized labor. His lead continued through December and the beginning of January, however, events from the Middle East would soon change the dynamics of the race. After the fall of the pro-American Shah in Iran, an anti-American government formed in the country as the radical cleric Ayatollah Khomeini took over. Tensions grew worse as President Carter let the Shah into the country to receive medical care which led to an explosion of anti-American protests in Iran culminating in a group of students kidnapping the members of the American embassy on November 4. As the months went on Carter's approval ratings went up as he adopted as voters appreciated his calm handiling of the crisis. In the lead-up to the Iowa Caucuses Carter started to beat Kennedy in the polls for the first time which tempted Kennedy to attack Carter's actions during the hostage crisis, however, he decided agaisnt it realizing that it could only hurt him. Instead, he attacked Carter on domestic issues like his failure to advocate more strongly for the ERA and his use of Taft-Hartly during a coal miners' strike in West Virginia. However, this wouldn't be enough as Kennedy was soundly defeated in Iowa with Kennedy receiving 35 percent to Carter's 51 percent. The race would only get worse for Kennedy in February as he lost Minnesota and in his backyard, New Hampshire, only narrowly winning in Maine. In early March Carter would sweep most of the contests while Kennedy would only win in his native Massachusetts and Puerto Rico. However, in late March things would improve for Kennedy as he won both New York and Connecticut due to a high amount of support from Jewish and African American supporters. After his victories, things would start to turn back towards his favor as people started to become impatient with Carter's lack of action regarding the hostages. Kennedy would exploit the dissatisfaction with the Carter regime and would finally be able to attack his strategy in Iran. In April he would score major victories in Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Michigan as Carter's approval ratings dropped once again. Then on the twenty-fifth, they would collapse following a disastrous attempt to rescue the hostages that would result in the loss of six helicopters and the deaths of eight American personnel. Kennedy was quick to pounce on Carter's failures and called for a debate with Carter. He had called for one in January, however, Carter had been able to ignore it due to his revived popularity, but following the failed rescue attempt his refusal to attend a debate with Kennedy started to hurt his polling numbers even further. Without any major gaffes during his campaign, more democratic voters started to abandon Carter and vote for Kennedy, and in May he scored more wins in Colorado, Washington DC, Maryland, Nebraska, and Nevada while Carter struggled to win outside of the South. Desperate to put an end to Kennedy's campaign before the convention, Carter embarked on a major risk. He finally gave in to Kennedy's demand for a debate, but instead of debating him, he would let his Vice President Walter Mondale go agaisnt him. Mondale had done a good job in the past of defending him and Carter believed that he would do much better in a debate agaisnt his opponent than he would. He was sure that Mondale's warm Hubert Humphrey-esque charm would be better suited agaisnt the charismatic Kennedy than his own aloof and quiet personality would. He could also continue with his rose garden strategy and could focus on the Iranian crisis without getting bogged down in the primary fight. Kennedy eagerly agreed and the debate was held just two days before the June 3 primaries in Cleveland Ohio. As Carter watched the debate it quickly became apparent that his strategy had horribly backfired. Mondale did his best to defend Carter while he chastised Kennedy for exploiting the Iranian hostage crisis for his own benefit, but Kennedy quickly hit back and hurled attacks at the absent Carter, while largely ignoring Mondale. Toward the end of the debate, he would unleash his most damaging attack agaisnt Carter saying,
"If President Carter doesn't have the courage to debate me himself, how is he going to be able to face whoever the Republican nominee is? I guarantee you he won't be able to send Vice President Mondale in his place during a national debate."
(Ted Kennedy and Walter Mondale before the debate in Cleveland)
The results from the debate would be demonstrated in the June Primaries where Kennedy would narrow the lead between him and Carter even further by winning California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, South Dakota, and Rhode Island. By the time of the final contest in July Carter was only ahead of Kennedy by four percent with 46 percent of the vote compared to Kennedy's 42 percent. As the convention started on August 11th in Madison Square Garden no one knew whether the nominee would be Carter or Kennedy. While he hadn't succeeded in making the convention open, it would become so if Carter failed to win on the first ballot. With both candidates in a dead heat, many delegates attempted to draft Secretary of State Edmund Muskie however he declined to openly run. Many party leaders wished he had as Kennedy and Carter's supporters battled each other, some even engaging in fist fights as the convention quickly became the most violent and disorderly since the 1968 convention in Chicago. Despite Kennedy's efforts, Carter would barely win on the first ballot, yet even then the fight was still not over. The party's platform remained hotly in contention. Kennedy several days before had issued an ultimatum to Carter that he would only support him if he embraced some economically liberal policies, like a jobs guarantee, and a stimulus package. Carter would have none of it, however. Furious at Kennedy for his antics during the convention and the primaries he told his delegates to vote down all of Kennedy's proposed planks which led to all of them except the Stimulus plan being struck down. Outraged, a thousand of Kennedy's delegates, 30 percent of the total delegates of the convention walked out of the building and refused to endorse Carter. Complete disaster was only avoided by Kennedy's endorsement of Carter on the final day of the convention. His speech would cause the demoralized delegates to cheer as he finished, and it seemed as though the wounds caused during the primary could finally be healed. That was until Ted Kennedy said his final line of the speech, "Vote your conscious." In effect he had permitted his supporters to not vote for Carter. As he exited the podium Carter went up to shake his hand, but a still furious Kennedy walked past him in front of the whole convention prompting boos from the Carter delegates and cheers from what few Kennedy delegates were still in the hall. After Kennedy's rebuff Carter would give his keynote speech which would be a complete disaster and by the time the convention was over the party was less united than it had been before it. While democrats across the country were demoralized and disgusted and Republicans were amused and triumphant, one man sensed an opportunity.
Map of the Democratic Primary Results
Jimmy Carter-Red
Ted Kennedy-Blue
Uncommitted-Green
"For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die. My friends vote your conscious this November," Ted Kennedy speech at the Democratic convention in New York.
Jimmy Carter would have been celebrating the disunity and mudslinging in the Republican primaries if it were not for the fact that his party was even less united. With a stagnating economy, the energy crisis, and rising inflation the least he could have asked for was an easy path to the convention, but for Senator Ted Kennedy that was too much to ask. Ever since 1968 after his brother's assassination, there had been calls for Kennedy to run, but each time he had declined. This was not due to a lack of ambition, but rather to a single event that he felt would kill any national campaign he started. Ever since 1969 he had been haunted by Chappaquiddick where he had killed a female staffer in a drunk driving accident, and had refused calls to run in both 1972 and 1976, although he could have easily won the nomination in both those years. But in 1979 he changed his mind. Tired of Carter's fiscal conservatism and ineffectiveness he laid the groundwork for a presidential campaign. On October 29th a "Kennedy for President Committee," was formed and he became a candidate the same day, yet, he planned to hold off his official announcement until November 7th. However, he would be forced to make his announcement sooner following an interview with Roger Mudd on November 4. During the interview, Mudd asked him why he wanted to be president, a seemingly simple question that caught Kennedy off guard since he was planning to hold off his presidential announcement. Instead of trying to evade the question he explained why he was running for president after a brief pause.
"Well, I'm planning on running because I don't believe that President Carter is an effective leader of either the democratic party or the country. His economic policies differentiate very little from President Ford's and he has not handled our domestic problems or our oil shortage adequately and I think our party and our nation needs a more liberal and a more capable alternative to the President, and I think I am that alternative."
While his long pause was noticed by some the main story from the interview was his campaign announcement. Initially, polls showed Kennedy beating Carter by wide margins, with one polling showing him beating Carter 54 to 20 percent. He also started to pick up endorsements from many members of the party's liberal wing like Mo Udall and George McGovern as well as its labor wing receiving endorsements from the AFL-CIO and other prominent unions upset with Carter's lax record on organized labor. His lead continued through December and the beginning of January, however, events from the Middle East would soon change the dynamics of the race. After the fall of the pro-American Shah in Iran, an anti-American government formed in the country as the radical cleric Ayatollah Khomeini took over. Tensions grew worse as President Carter let the Shah into the country to receive medical care which led to an explosion of anti-American protests in Iran culminating in a group of students kidnapping the members of the American embassy on November 4. As the months went on Carter's approval ratings went up as he adopted as voters appreciated his calm handiling of the crisis. In the lead-up to the Iowa Caucuses Carter started to beat Kennedy in the polls for the first time which tempted Kennedy to attack Carter's actions during the hostage crisis, however, he decided agaisnt it realizing that it could only hurt him. Instead, he attacked Carter on domestic issues like his failure to advocate more strongly for the ERA and his use of Taft-Hartly during a coal miners' strike in West Virginia. However, this wouldn't be enough as Kennedy was soundly defeated in Iowa with Kennedy receiving 35 percent to Carter's 51 percent. The race would only get worse for Kennedy in February as he lost Minnesota and in his backyard, New Hampshire, only narrowly winning in Maine. In early March Carter would sweep most of the contests while Kennedy would only win in his native Massachusetts and Puerto Rico. However, in late March things would improve for Kennedy as he won both New York and Connecticut due to a high amount of support from Jewish and African American supporters. After his victories, things would start to turn back towards his favor as people started to become impatient with Carter's lack of action regarding the hostages. Kennedy would exploit the dissatisfaction with the Carter regime and would finally be able to attack his strategy in Iran. In April he would score major victories in Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Michigan as Carter's approval ratings dropped once again. Then on the twenty-fifth, they would collapse following a disastrous attempt to rescue the hostages that would result in the loss of six helicopters and the deaths of eight American personnel. Kennedy was quick to pounce on Carter's failures and called for a debate with Carter. He had called for one in January, however, Carter had been able to ignore it due to his revived popularity, but following the failed rescue attempt his refusal to attend a debate with Kennedy started to hurt his polling numbers even further. Without any major gaffes during his campaign, more democratic voters started to abandon Carter and vote for Kennedy, and in May he scored more wins in Colorado, Washington DC, Maryland, Nebraska, and Nevada while Carter struggled to win outside of the South. Desperate to put an end to Kennedy's campaign before the convention, Carter embarked on a major risk. He finally gave in to Kennedy's demand for a debate, but instead of debating him, he would let his Vice President Walter Mondale go agaisnt him. Mondale had done a good job in the past of defending him and Carter believed that he would do much better in a debate agaisnt his opponent than he would. He was sure that Mondale's warm Hubert Humphrey-esque charm would be better suited agaisnt the charismatic Kennedy than his own aloof and quiet personality would. He could also continue with his rose garden strategy and could focus on the Iranian crisis without getting bogged down in the primary fight. Kennedy eagerly agreed and the debate was held just two days before the June 3 primaries in Cleveland Ohio. As Carter watched the debate it quickly became apparent that his strategy had horribly backfired. Mondale did his best to defend Carter while he chastised Kennedy for exploiting the Iranian hostage crisis for his own benefit, but Kennedy quickly hit back and hurled attacks at the absent Carter, while largely ignoring Mondale. Toward the end of the debate, he would unleash his most damaging attack agaisnt Carter saying,
"If President Carter doesn't have the courage to debate me himself, how is he going to be able to face whoever the Republican nominee is? I guarantee you he won't be able to send Vice President Mondale in his place during a national debate."
(Ted Kennedy and Walter Mondale before the debate in Cleveland)
The results from the debate would be demonstrated in the June Primaries where Kennedy would narrow the lead between him and Carter even further by winning California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, South Dakota, and Rhode Island. By the time of the final contest in July Carter was only ahead of Kennedy by four percent with 46 percent of the vote compared to Kennedy's 42 percent. As the convention started on August 11th in Madison Square Garden no one knew whether the nominee would be Carter or Kennedy. While he hadn't succeeded in making the convention open, it would become so if Carter failed to win on the first ballot. With both candidates in a dead heat, many delegates attempted to draft Secretary of State Edmund Muskie however he declined to openly run. Many party leaders wished he had as Kennedy and Carter's supporters battled each other, some even engaging in fist fights as the convention quickly became the most violent and disorderly since the 1968 convention in Chicago. Despite Kennedy's efforts, Carter would barely win on the first ballot, yet even then the fight was still not over. The party's platform remained hotly in contention. Kennedy several days before had issued an ultimatum to Carter that he would only support him if he embraced some economically liberal policies, like a jobs guarantee, and a stimulus package. Carter would have none of it, however. Furious at Kennedy for his antics during the convention and the primaries he told his delegates to vote down all of Kennedy's proposed planks which led to all of them except the Stimulus plan being struck down. Outraged, a thousand of Kennedy's delegates, 30 percent of the total delegates of the convention walked out of the building and refused to endorse Carter. Complete disaster was only avoided by Kennedy's endorsement of Carter on the final day of the convention. His speech would cause the demoralized delegates to cheer as he finished, and it seemed as though the wounds caused during the primary could finally be healed. That was until Ted Kennedy said his final line of the speech, "Vote your conscious." In effect he had permitted his supporters to not vote for Carter. As he exited the podium Carter went up to shake his hand, but a still furious Kennedy walked past him in front of the whole convention prompting boos from the Carter delegates and cheers from what few Kennedy delegates were still in the hall. After Kennedy's rebuff Carter would give his keynote speech which would be a complete disaster and by the time the convention was over the party was less united than it had been before it. While democrats across the country were demoralized and disgusted and Republicans were amused and triumphant, one man sensed an opportunity.
Map of the Democratic Primary Results
Jimmy Carter-Red
Ted Kennedy-Blue
Uncommitted-Green
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Sorry Wisconsin went to Carter not KennedyMap of the Democratic Primary Results
Jimmy Carter-Red
Ted Kennedy-Blue
Uncommitted-Green