Middle East/North Africa without 1204 Siege

[legumes]

Good evening. As it says on the title what would the Middle East look like if the sacking of Constantinople in 1204 is avoided? For starters either the crusaders avoid Constantinople, and also avoid sacking Zara or at least stay on good terms with the Pope somehow. Regardless the don't get bogged down and besiege the imperial capital, and make their way to the Holy Land. Honestly, this attempt to retake Jerusalem will almost certainly fail, as the past two ones had. Or alternatively, Urban III never becomes Pope, and the new guy just doesn't declare a crusade.

Now how does West Asia develop? To begin with, the Mongols will still come crashing in, and they'll leave the Ilkanate in their place. It's likely that the Seljuk Sultanate will collapse as it did IOTL, and leave the door open to potential roman expansion. Byzantium itself still has issues, being broke, fighting Bulgaria, dealing with Venice, and being a much larger target for the Mongols. If they play their cards right with good leadership, then they could restore some of their old borders and survive a while longer than in OTL. Perhaps they could do what they'd always done, just diplomatize the Mongols until they're a nonthreat?

Further south, I think that the Ayyubids will still fall, after all, there will still be more crusades after this. Also, the Mameluks will replace them, they'll still probably fight off the Mongols in Syria. Would the Mamluks have conquered the crusader states on time as they did here?

Then there's the elephant in the room, the Ottomans being butterflied. So without a larger Turkish Islamic empire at the center of the map, how would the neighboring Muslim powers change? With them gone, would Tamur be even more successful in his conquests? The Ilkhan is bound to fall sooner or later, and either Tamerlane (or his equivalent, if you prefer butterflies) seem likely to conquer the region. Since the Mameluks were the dominant player in the area, what would happen to them as the early modern era dawns?

As for North Africa, what happens to the Barbary states without the Ottomans to back them up? Would they fall to the Latins? Or would they survive fine on their own?
A big topic I know, but I'm looking forward to info.

 

[Dominic]

A very big topic, as you say. Hard to see the 4th Crusade successfully doing anything other than sacking Constantinople without a POD that doesn't leave it under the control of Venice, and IMO it's more likely that without the Venetian intervention they just disperse, or perhaps a smaller number head off somewhere in the Middle East with more modest aims.

Predicting any long term changes is very, very difficult. Timur won't be born, and the Mongol succession beyond Ogedai is entirely uncertain. The Romans are considerably stronger without 1204, but still considerably weaker than they'd been in a century. Regionalism is on the rise and the Imperial economy is trashed. With the City they aren't falling any time soon short of a fluke like 1204, but could conceivably lose the bulk of their territory in both Europe and Asia. Rum might collapse like OTL, or it might not. If it is able to capture wealthy Anatolian territory from the Romans that is more likely to prolong its life, and a Constantinopolitan Empire is less likely to have the successes of Nicaea in defending Anatolia while worrying about Europe.

After the 13th century there's nothing certain that can be said. A Turkish empire could certainly still arise by 1400, and could certainly capture Constantinople - the details will be very different but the idea of Muslims breaking into the Balkans is as plausible as ever. Alternatively, the Romans could re-establish themselves. Depends on what you want to write, really.

 

[legumes]

A very big topic, as you say. Hard to see the 4th Crusade successfully doing anything other than sacking Constantinople without a POD that doesn't leave it under the control of Venice, and IMO it's more likely that without the Venetian intervention they just disperse, or perhaps a smaller number head off somewhere in the Middle East with more modest aims.

Predicting any long term changes is very, very difficult. Timur won't be born, and the Mongol succession beyond Ogedai is entirely uncertain. The Romans are considerably stronger without 1204, but still considerably weaker than they'd been in a century. Regionalism is on the rise and the Imperial economy is trashed. With the City, they aren't falling any time soon short of a fluke like 1204, but could conceivably lose the bulk of their territory in both Europe and Asia. Rum might collapse like OTL, or it might not. If it is able to capture wealthy Anatolian territory from the Romans that is more likely to prolong its life, and a Constantinopolitan Empire is less likely to have the successes of Nicaea in defending Anatolia while worrying about Europe.

After the 13th century, there's nothing certain that can be said. A Turkish empire could certainly still arise by 1400, and could certainly capture Constantinople - the details will be very different but the idea of Muslims breaking into the Balkans is as plausible as ever. Alternatively, the Romans could re-establish themselves. It depends on what you want to write, really.

Yeah, I agree. A late Byzantine POD can have several results,

1. A Turkish empire conquering Anatolia, the imperial city, and the lower Balkans. However, I honestly doubt they'll be knocking on the doors of Vienna. The Ottomans were very skilled, and very efficient, no doubt about it. But much of their initial success can be attributed to coming to power at a time when the Christian and Islamic worlds were both a hot mess. Furthermore, if Byzantium is in at least a little better place by this 1300 than in our world, it will take these Turks much longer to conquer them and fully gain ground in the Balkans.
2. Byzantium being effectively partitioned between Bulgaria, Serbia, Venice, and some Turkish dynasties.
3. The East Roman Empire stabilizing after the 13th century and surviving the rest of the medieval era as a local power.

Not sure if I'll make a timeline out of this, it does seem promising, but I also kind of want to make TL that's less well known. Guess I'll see after more research.

 

[JanWellem]

The Byzentine Empire would've remained significantly richer, both in a pecuniar sense as well as in regards to all the works of art either pillaged or destroyed during the sack of Constantinople and the Venetians and their partners would've remained poorer, e.g. no Horses of Saint Mark to adorn Saint Mark's Basilica. The population of Constantinople, which had remained pretty stable throughout the middle Byzentine period and still numbered between 400'000 and 500'000 before the siege and sack during the 4th crusade, had dropped to a mere 35'000 in 1261, when Michael VIII captured the city, and while the city's population doubled to 70'000 under his rule, it never came close to what it had been before, up to the Ottoman coquest in 1453, after which Mehmet II started to planfully repopulate a largely abondonned city of less than 50'000.