Malaya What If

[Driftless]

I don't have any detail to support this thought, but I have read that along with his frequent annoyance/disgust with Mac after lengthy service with him, Ike disagreed with much of Mac's training and development plans for the Philippine Army. That from the standpoint that the plan wasn't tied to the constraints of the Philippine economy to support the larger scale plans Mac had. Mac was trying for too much with too little resource. The quality of the PI units that recieved sufficient training and equipment was first rate, but they were unfortunately the exception (as others have noted earlier)

*edit* Butchpfd would have more details on Ike & Mac's differences in evaluation of the preparation of the PI forces

 

[Fatboy Coxy]

1941, Thursday 30 October;

Sqn Ldr Boulton banked his Hurricane to port, the masts of the radar station on Kedah Peak coming into view, as he led his flight of four around the mountain, heading out over the Malacca Straits, Penang Island and the airfield at Bayan Lepas lying to the south of them. He’d recently transferred to RCAF 416, and together with the CO of RCAF 406 Sqn, Sqn Ldr Elmer Gaunce, a Canadian BoB ace, was tasked with balancing out both squadrons with a fair mix of experienced and green pilots. Ten days ago, HMCS Prince David had arrived with a considerable number of more newly trained Canadian pilots, most of whom would need a lot more time training. Old man Parks was in a rush to get both of the RCAF fighter squadrons, 406 and 416, operational.

All three pilots with him were very keen and showed good promise. They had all arrived some months ago and had progressed well, having mastered the simple flying requirements of take-off and landing, and flying in formation. Today they would have some target practice, strafing an old Naval barge, moored on a sandbank off the northern tip of Penang, with some wood and canvas mocked up superstructure, which would be the target. “Ok chaps, you should be seeing the target coming into view on your port side round about now, when I call your name, you will peel off, dive down like we’ve done before, and give the target a burst of your guns. I will not only be looking at your accuracy, but also how you approach and leave the target. When you have completed your attack, you will join me up here circling in line astern. OK, Jimmy, your first, off you go”

The roar of an aero engine behind him told of the rolling of a Hurricane into a dive as Flying Officer Jimmy Whalen went flying past. Jimmy watched his altimeter clock spin as the aircraft closed with the barge, damn, he was coming in too deep too soon, ‘Foss’ had told him, not too long on the deck, he’d buggered it up, well he’d better make sure his gunfire was on target. His thumb closed over the firing button, he pressed and watched as the splashes of bullets cutting into the water walked up to the barge and then shredded some of the canvas. Quickly he banked as well as pulling up, having to change line of flight and get some altitude.

Above, Boulton watched, room for improvement, but Whalen had done ok. “Ok Louis, your turn, remember what I’ve said” Again the aero engine roar told the story, as Flight Sergeant Goldberg went into his dive. Boulton watched carefully, the pilot was a bit older and calmer than the others, in time he might make a good leader. The Hurricane dived down at a better angle than Whalen’s, and he put a better aimed burst into the barge. As he climbed back up, Boulton smiled to himself, proud of his acolyte, yes Louis Goldberg had all the makings of becoming a first-class pilot and instructor like himself.

“OK Shorty, last but not least, down you go” Boulton smiled to himself aware he just made a bad pun, Shorty was nicknamed rightly so, being only five foot four and a half. Roaring away, Flt Sgt Reid swooped in on the barge. Determined not to make Whalen’s mistake he over compensated and left the dive too late, he barely got aim on the target before he was pulling hard on the stick and climbing out, even forgetting to alter his flight line. As he climbed up joining the others Boulton commented, “And that’s how not to do it! Ok, shall we have another go, off you go Jimmy”

They were flying back, Boulton quite satisfied with what they had done, he would be putting all three forward for operational duty, and recommending Goldberg be promoted to Pilot Officer. Newly built Kuala Ketil airfield was coming into view, the runway in front, everything still looking new and un-weathered. Boulton was going to watch them land, one at a time, and was looking forward to a few drinks in the mess tonight with the boys. His thoughts were interrupted, “Foss, I’ve got a problem with my engine, I’m losing power” it was Goldberg, his aircraft was falling behind. Bouton spoke into his mouthpiece “Jimmy, abort your landing, climb higher, Shorty fly high, give us some room, Louis I’ll circle round behind you”.

“Foss, the engines given up I’ll try to glide in” Boulton banked his aircraft, while he looked for Goldberg, where was he, Christ that’s low, too low to bail out. “Louis, Louis you need more height, your too low, try to restart the engine, you need to clear those trees”

“I’m trying Foss, the god damn son of a bitch isn’t answering, I’m pulling the wheels up, if I can just clear these trees” Boulton watched in horror as the starboard wingtip caught a tree, causing the Hurricane to veer right, and suddenly she was crashing through the jungle canopy, 800 yards short of the edge of the clearing for the airfield. Both wings were broken off, the fuselage smashing into a thick tree truck, the impact snapping Goldberg’s neck and killing him instantly.

By the time the other three Hurricanes had landed safely, a pall of smoke had risen from the crash site. But it would be another hour before ground crew cut their way through jungle to the wreckage and recovered the body. There would be no drinks in the mess tonight.

 

[Ferd42]

Do you really think Lord Gort would carry out Churchill's order to fight to the last man? Even if such an insane order came down do you think the men would die at their posts? Remember the refrain, "England for the English, Australia for the Australians, and Malaya for any son of bitch who wants it." Fighting till the city was destroyed would cause a humanitarian crisis on a massive scale. Most of the people had little interest in maintaining the British Empire, and after forcing a bloodbath love for the Empire would hardly increase. A devastated city would do nothing to give Britain a better post-war narrative.

I really do think Gort would, he resented being ordered out ahead of Dunkirk and overall the impression I get of him is some one who enjoyed being a fighting soilder. Even the most critical biographies that you read of him suggest that he was extraordinarly brave.
You are right though that others would probably surrender before the end, but I think the point is that the lasting impression would be that Britain had fought for Mayala. Remeber that "Defeat is acceptable, disgrace is not"!

 

[HJ Tulp]

ABDA's naval forces are trying to interdict the advance, being hampered at all points by Japanese airpower.

Just a nitpick on a further excellent post: ABDAFLOAT (at least the British and Dutch part) was mainly used to escort British convoys to Malaya. The only significant action in January was the Battle of Balikpap, done solely by American vessels. It wasn't until February that ABDAFLOAT formed a Combined Strike Force.

I suppose it can't really be discussed in detail until the shooting and assaults start, but in OTL, didn't the Japanese shift significant numbers of Army forces between the PI, DEI, and Malaya, AND extracting some first tier units from ongoing operations in China?

Not outside of what was planned beforehand. In fact, because the defense of Malaya was far weaker than anticipated the Japanese were able to advance their schedule significantly and were able to present Batavia as present to the Emperor for his birthday.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

I've always said the biggest mistake made in the interwar period was the Americans insisting on ending the Anglo/Japanese Alliance. Replacing it with the Washington Treaty System was a disaster. As long as it was in effect it was a restraint on Japanese conduct. Ending it left Japan adrift which made Japan feel isolated, and countries that feel isolation have no choice but to do whatever they feel they have to do to protect their interests.

The second biggest mistake was Britain & France imposing sanctions on Italy for invading Ethiopia in 1935. Turning Italy from an ally to an enemy over the hypocrisy of saying Italy was an imperialist aggressor in Africa was absurd. Did ether of them think to take a look at what they, and other smaller powers had done to Africa since 1884? But their attitude was our imperialism was so much more enlightened than Italy's was. Could anyone really say that with a straight face?

If you used the standards of 1884 you could certainly accuse the British and French of hypocrisy but the British and the French would be using the standards of 1935.

And Italy was certainly not up to the same standards.

Italy a late developer was late to the colonisation period and wanted their time or turn in the Sun.

And that was at the expense of Libya and Ethiopia.

 

[Ramp-Rat]

Merrick has raised a number of valid points, the primary one I believe is, has Lord Gort done enough to change the outcome of a Japanese invasion, and has there been enough changes in personnel and equipment to support a different outcome. Let us look first at the question of personnel and equipment, and what changes have taken place. While there hasn’t been a massive increase in the number of personnel in theatre, there has been a significant number of changes in comparison TOTL. The deployment of a number of Hong Kong Chinese units and Indian AA Artillery units to Singapore, along with the deployment of functionally obsolete by European standards. But perfectly good by Far East standards, and the realistic training that has been undertaken, has significantly improved the air defences in Singapore. While the 18 pounder, 4.5 inch howitzer, and 6 inch 26 cwt howitzer, are all old pre WWI designs, they have all been significantly modernised, and are as good if not better than anything that the Japanese can deploy. And this will be one of the major differences that the Japanese face in comparison to their campaign in China. The Chinese forces had little or no artillery capability, and what they had was short of ammunition, and basically only able to operate on line of sight. A single British devision in Malaya probably has more guns than a Chinese Army, and is able to fully coordinate them, and carry out various fire missions including direct and indirect fire. The Japanese infantry are going to have to become used to operating under the constant threat of artillery attacks, which will mean dispersal of assets, you can not have only one central supply dump, were just one lucky British shell can destroy all of your regiments supplies.

And in much the same way, Japanese infantrymen who unless they have encountered the German trained Chinese devisions, have only fought against Chinese infantry who were lucky to have a uniform, boots and a weapon with a limited supply of ammunition, no communications, supply services or fully trained medical personnel. Will now be facing British forces be they British, Australian, Indian, Malaya or HK Chinese, who all have a uniform, boots, web equipment, mess kit, water bottle, shell dressing, and an entrenching tool. Plus all though our author hasn’t mentioned it a locally produced Parang, as I would expect that Ian Stewart as commander of the infantry training school, will have insisted that the Parang become a standard item of kit. These infantrymen, will all have fired a minimum of 300 rounds on the ranges during their training, and have a ready supply of additional ammunition in combat, are going to be able to lay down significantly more fire than the Japanese up until now have been used too. And will have a number of crew served weapons varying from the old Lewis and Vickers guns, to the more modern Bren and Indian Vickers-Berthier, plus mortars and rifle grenades. Every infantryman will be carrying a number of grenades, and will have during training have thrown a least one live grenade. In addition the battalion artillery officer can call down a fire mission from the brigade or divisional artillery. For the Japanese attacking a British battalion or brigade is going to be a very different experience to attacking a Chinese regiment or devision. Not only are the British better equipped, the units are larger and far better supported. Not just with artillery, but also with engineers, communications, supply, transport and medical services.

So has Lord Gort done enough to prevent the Japanese from being able to capture Malaya and Singapore, I personally believe he has. The Japanese have only a very short window in which to capture Malaya and Singapore, before their logistics completely collapse, and IOTL had the British been better lead, and had better intelligence. They would have realised that the Japanese were basically bluffing, and had run out of ammunition by the time they surrounded Singapore. ITTL the imposition of a few days delay here and there, the much firmer leadership, and better intelligence, will leave the Japanese if they are lucky over a hundred miles away from Singapore, with their logistics completely collapsed and their troops starving. While the British will be receiving reinforcements, and having fallen back on their supply lines, in a stronger position despite their casualties. While the airforce which has seen significant improvements, the movement of training squadrons to Singapore to receive the final polish, and the major improvements to their airfields. Be especially the equally of their Japanese opposition, and having learned so valuable lessons, be in a position once the monsoon is over, to gain the upper hand. The RN has by making the best of what was available secured the West Coast, and will make the East Coast a very uncomfortable place for anything other then a major Japanese fleet. While the RN and Dutch submarines are going to make both the South China Sea a extremely dangerous place for any large Japanese ship ether merchant or navy. And the big British submarines stationed of Hong Kong are until their torpedoes run out, going to seriously upset Japanese shipping in the area.


RR.

 

[Belisarius II]

An excellent application of the situation as applied up to the installation of Lord Gort as C in C Far East ITTL, especially the attitude of Washington and MacArthur. However the situation has changed slightly, and while Mac is still failing to take the measures necessary to enable his forces to conduct a successful defence of the Philippines or Luzon. Lord Gort has managed to make best use of the resources available to him, and should be able to conduct a successful defence of Malaya and Singapore. I believe that by March or April, Mac will be surrounded in the Bataan peninsula rapidly running out of supplies, much as he was IOTL, while Gort will have managed to retain the Japanese in Malaya. The USN will still be perusing their War Plan Orange, and principally concentrating on trying to bring the Japanese to battle in the Central Pacific. And in the same way that Mac failed to adequately prepare for the Japanese assault, the USN thanks to their fixation with the Pacific, will have failed to prepare for the entry of Germany into the conflict. And thus the Germans will enjoy a second happy time, as their U-Boats are let loose along the American Atlantic seaboard. And this along with the better performance of the British in the Far East, plus Mac’s constant demands that the British do something to assist him. Will put Anglo American relations under a significant strain, for the next few months, and strengthen Winston's hand for a short time.

RR.

The changes the British have made in Malaya may delay the inevitable, but it's still inevitable. The Japanese will also alter their plans in response to British strategy. That's the thing the enemy gets a vote to. In alternate history it's not like both sides can't do things differently. If you want to change the outcome of an ACW, or Napoleonic battle it's easier to have one side faint right instead of left and take the enemy by surprise. In a grand strategic campaign in WWII were your resetting the table the other side has more time to react. The Japanese General Staff thought Yamashita would need 5 division in Malaya, he said he only needed 3. Maybe they give him the other 2.

Sure, MacArthur is going to lose in Luzon, but FDR is still going to save him, and he's still going to be C & C SWP, because Australia needs an American. No, the USN is not trying to bring the IJN to battle in the Central Pacific. They want to avoid that because they know they'll be destroyed. That's what the Japanese wanted. The Second Happy Time didn't happen because the USN didn't have adequate forces in the Atlantic. It happened because the U.S. Admirals stubbornly refused to do what all experience in both world wars told them to do, and form convoys. If you put that level of stupidity into an ALT history TL people would say it was absurd.

 

[Belisarius II]

I really do think Gort would, he resented being ordered out ahead of Dunkirk and overall the impression I get of him is some one who enjoyed being a fighting soilder. Even the most critical biographies that you read of him suggest that he was extraordinarly brave.
You are right though that others would probably surrender before the end, but I think the point is that the lasting impression would be that Britain had fought for Mayala. Remeber that "Defeat is acceptable, disgrace is not"!

Lord Gort may have been a fighting soldier, but he wasn't suicidal. When he realized the BEF's flank was turned, he did the only sensible thing he could do and beat a hasty retreat. If Dunkirk had fallen the BEF would've surrendered long before most of the men would be killed. In Singapore there was no place to go, surrender was the only option. The British don't have a 300 Spartans mind set, that's the Japanese. Singapore isn't London. The British know they can lose it, and still come back and win the war.

Britain in WWII didn't want to suffer the KIA numbers of WWI. They figured they'd get the POW's back when the war ended. What they didn't know was how bad it would be for them, and what their death rate would be. Even knowing that fighting to the death wasn't a real option.

 

[Ferd42]

Lord Gort may have been a fighting soldier, but he wasn't suicidal. When he realized the BEF's flank was turned, he did the only sensible thing he could do and beat a hasty retreat. If Dunkirk had fallen the BEF would've surrendered long before most of the men would be killed. In Singapore there was no place to go, surrender was the only option. The British don't have a 300 Spartans mind set, that's the Japanese. Singapore isn't London. The British know they can lose it, and still come back and win the war.

Britain in WWII didn't want to suffer the KIA numbers of WWI. They figured they'd get the POW's back when the war ended. What they didn't know was how bad it would be for them, and what their death rate would be. Even knowing that fighting to the death wasn't a real option.

During the Dunkirk campaign there was an option to preserve the force and fight another day, which as you say Gort sensibly took. If you are besiegded in Singapore with no get out, then there is no option to do that. I don't think it is unreasonable to suggest that Percivile surrendered while there was fight left in his command, there is a way the British can go before it gets down to "300 style" last stands.

 

[Butchpfd]

For all of you tossing around why things were the way they were because of treaties, putting all ideas of mysterious plots..
Now how about trying a real historian and his discussions and college level presentations; Look at Dr. Alexander Clarke and his entire series on the Washington and London Naval Treaties. Here is the link to his page, you will have to find some of the videos, they are long and complex but factual. https://www.youtube.com/@DrAlexClarke
Washington Naval Treaty:

,

, ,

, There are more but this will get you all started. Note: you will need something to drink>

 

[DDM]

Lord Gort may have been a fighting soldier, but he wasn't suicidal. When he realized the BEF's flank was turned, he did the only sensible thing he could do and beat a hasty retreat. If Dunkirk had fallen the BEF would've surrendered long before most of the men would be killed. In Singapore there was no place to go, surrender was the only option. The British don't have a 300 Spartans mind set, that's the Japanese. Singapore isn't London. The British know they can lose it, and still come back and win the war.

Britain in WWII didn't want to suffer the KIA numbers of WWI. They figured they'd get the POW's back when the war ended. What they didn't know was how bad it would be for them, and what their death rate would be. Even knowing that fighting to the death wasn't a real option.

As you say when the flank is turned. In this scenario they may not be able to turn the flank. I cannot remember if in this timeline of the engineers have actually completed the defenses at Jitra. If they have and have started fall back defense lines Gort very well may stop the Japanese cold at Jitra and if not will be able to fall back in a well ordered fashion bleeding the Japanese forces every step of the way. Remember 1 division will not be available for a few weeks as the Imperial Guards make their way up from Indochina. So the original attacking force will be less than 2 divisions attacking into a chokepoint prepared with dug in troops and artillery support. I say less then 2 since part of 1 is going to be chewed up at Khota Baru. Thr flanking maneuvers came when the Japanese managed to seize enough boats to mount amphibious attacks on the east coast. With the ordered retreat they may not get the boats to seize and with the small boat squadrons in this timeline they will be opposed.
I believe the fall of Singapore in this timeline will happen through the fall of Borneo, the Celebes, Java and then Sumatra cutting Singapore off. As much as thr British forces are better prepared the DEI still looks like it will fall rather easily.
The only hope is if the Malaysia front to hold sufficient to allow for reinforcements to be sent to Java, Timor, Bali and southern Sumatra.
Phillipines are still toast regardless of changes here.

 

[CB13]

As you say when the flank is turned. In this scenario they may not be able to turn the flank. I cannot remember if in this timeline of the engineers have actually completed the defenses at Jitra. If they have and have started fall back defense lines Gort very well may stop the Japanese cold at Jitra and if not will be able to fall back in a well ordered fashion bleeding the Japanese forces every step of the way. Remember 1 division will not be available for a few weeks as the Imperial Guards make their way up from Indochina. So the original attacking force will be less than 2 divisions attacking into a chokepoint prepared with dug in troops and artillery support. I say less then 2 since part of 1 is going to be chewed up at Khota Baru. Thr flanking maneuvers came when the Japanese managed to seize enough boats to mount amphibious attacks on the east coast. With the ordered retreat they may not get the boats to seize and with the small boat squadrons in this timeline they will be opposed.
I believe the fall of Singapore in this timeline will happen through the fall of Borneo, the Celebes, Java and then Sumatra cutting Singapore off. As much as thr British forces are better prepared the DEI still looks like it will fall rather easily.
The only hope is if the Malaysia front to hold sufficient to allow for reinforcements to be sent to Java, Timor, Bali and southern Sumatra.
Phillipines are still toast regardless of changes here.

What hasn't been spoken of much by author yet is what logistical butterflies have taken place in Malaya, Burma, Singapore, India, Middle East, etc. In short, what has been pushed "East" that previously was tied up in Egypt, Mediterranean, Persian Gulf, etc.

Per the storyline and the additional units the author has provided for defence, it seems highly counterintuitive that additional ammunition, food, etc. will not only also have followed to the East. Further, that if they warganed an invasion, they would also have wargamed "How to sustain a defense given the units now in-theatre....then reinforce it as quickly as possible."

Given the importance of Singapore, I would contend that although in OTL the UK was accumulating assets for Operation Crusader (offensive to push the Germans back from current positions in Egypt and relieve Seige of Tobruk), in this TL, any delays caused to the Japanese offensive would invariably result in at least some significant reinforcements being pushed hard into Singapore, Penang, Rangoon, etc., at which point it becomes the Japanese who have the more complicated supply train than do the allies.

I'm a huge fan of this timeline and can't wait to see where the author takes it next... 🍻

 

[Butchpfd]

The Philippines will fall, but as Malaya lasts longer so may the Philippines, once in late January, and again mid February, the Japanese had to put a pause on attacks against Bataan, while more troops and ammunition supplies were brought up. If more troops and supplies are needed in Malaya then less pressure on American forces, though food shortages caused by Mac Arthur's stupidity will eventually end the siege.
If more troops and supplies are needed in Malaya and the Philippines then less will be available to attack the DEI.
Also hopefully ITTL Hart does not make what he OTL considered a major error, and brings out AS Canopus and ARS Pigeon with the rest of the Fleet Train . Bringing the Canopus out brings a large store of MK X ( they work right) torpedoes for his S boats. Instead of going out on patrol worth just 6- 8 torpedoes the 4 S boats can go out with full loads of 16. for several months.

 

[CB13]

So how does this all play out going forward TTL? Nothing much has changed so far in the US deployments, so assume things start off as OTL. Assume that the British in Malaya do rather better - the Japanese invasion is slowed by successful actions at Kota Bharu or the Ledge, the British have their communications better set up so withdrawals don't routinely turn into chaos, there is no disaster at Slim River and by early January - an month into the war - the British have managed to temporarily stabilise a line in northern or central Malaya. Meanwhile, as OTL, the Japanese in the Philippines have bottled MacArthur up in Bataan/Corregidor and their Center Force is pushing south through Borneo and the Celebes. ABDA's naval forces are trying to interdict the advance, being hampered at all points by Japanese airpower.

So what does the US do now? The USN will go ahead with strikes against the Marshalls (again as OTL) both to distract the Japanese and to soften up the defences there for a later attack, once they've assembled the ships and Marines and amphibious transport. That uses the USN carriers, and the Pacific Fleet battleline is on the bottom of Pearl Harbor, so they don't have a whole lot left to send to the DEI even if they think it's a good idea. If they think reinforcements might save Java, they could scrape up some cruiser/destroyer forces to reinforce ABDA - possibly even from the Atlantic Fleet (it's not all that much further to Java from the US East Coast than from the West) - but it's about 3 weeks' sailing, so don't expect them soon.

The exception is submarines. These will be sent from Pearl Harbor all the way to the Philippine Sea to attack the Japanese lines of communication. They will take 2-3 weeks to make the crossing, and if there's a viable base in the area, the USN will be interested in using it - not to mention rebasing the Asiatic Fleet subs when Manila Bay becomes untenable. Singapore is a possibility, but I'd expect Surabaya to be the first option.

Aircraft of course are much faster to reposition, so expect air units intended for the China or the Philippines to be sent to wherever the front is when they arrive, probably eastern Java. More to follow if the campaign last long enough, but potentially not many more since the USAAF is still in its ramp-up stage and does not have unlimited planes or trained pilots.

There's also the issue that if the US look at the campaign and decide the Japanese can potentially be stopped in the East Indies, aircraft at nice, ships are nice but what is really needed is properly-trained, fully-equipped troops to give the KNIL a fighting chance against the IJA. The Navy won't want to commit the Marines to a long land campaign. The US Army is still in the middle of a major expansion, does not have too many fully-trained, fully-equipped units to send and the ones it does have are earmarked for Europe/North Africa, where Torch is already being planned. They won't want to have to find a division to send about as far from the US as it's possible to get and the politics of sending US boys to die defending Dutch colonies are horrible. If they think the East Indies are important enough, they might arrange a shuffle with US units going to the 8th Army in Egypt or to garrison duty in Syria/Palestine (and wouldn't that be fun) to free up more British or Empire troops to be sent East, but again that would be slow (any US troops to Egypt would have to go the long way round Africa). All in I suspect it's more likely the US will shrug its shoulders and say "no can do".

Remember that early 1941 is peak post-Pearl Harbor panic time and the US view the Japanese as seriously bad juju. MacArthur and the Philippine Division couldn't even slow them down - why would a bunch of British or Dutch colonial militia do any better? Throwing more underprepared troops or ships under the juggernaut could effectively be sending them straight to the PoW cages or Davy Jones. Much better to stick to the plan, which is Europe first and the prepared push through the Central Pacific with overwhelming force and keep the fleet where it belongs, which is between Japan and the US. Let the Europeans defend their own colonies.

Merrick,

Is there any chance you could describe (to whatever level of specificity you prefer) what the US had immediately available on the West Coast or potentially even in the the Gulf of Mexico or East Coast which could've been trans-shipped via the Panama Canal if the USN had decided to be more aggressive and switch to more of a "Japan First" strategy?

Thanks so much, Matthew. 🍻

 

[CB13]

If Pearl goes like OTL, I don't see things changing. However, if Pearl goes differently, then who knows. Remember that things can change.

Here's what some of what are available for resources:

JSTOR.org

Location of U.S. Naval Aircraft , WW2 >1942

1942

www.history.navy.mil

Nafziger

General Military History

This collection was provided through the generous donation of George Nafziger to the Combined Arms Research Library. The Nafziger Orders Of Battle Collection contains a compilation of 7985 individual orders of battle from 1600 to 1945. It began with George Nafziger's interest in Napoleonic Wars...

cgsc.contentdm.oclc.org

NavSource

US-Fleet Dec 7 1941

Niehorster

https://www.niehorster.org/013_usa/__usa.htm

Orbat.com
It's defunct. However, there are sections still available on archive.org aka Wayback Machine. Riki(?)
He was Indian who became a US citizen. He had a sincere interest in the Indian Army history.

USNI Proceedings
Its contributor list usually consists of current or former USN Line Officers or associates. The opinions
expressed are fairly interesting.

First two observations....

Interesting note about the USN destroyer floatilla based on Borneo that was going to rendezvous with Force Z. If they had come further towqrds Singapore first, that would have added a significant AAA screen to the UK capital ships. It equally could have just thrown the timing of the attack off.

Also interesting how few fighter, dive bomber and torpedo bomber aircraft the USN appeared to have on the date of teg Pearl Harbour attack.. Setting aside the very small wings at San Diego, the only potential reserves I see are the air groups attached to the Atlantic Fleet carriers (Wasp,.Hornet and Ranger).

 

[Butchpfd]

First two observations....

Interesting note about the USN destroyer floatilla based on Borneo that was going to rendezvous with Force Z. If they had come further towqrds Singapore first, that would have added a significant AAA screen to the UK capital ships. It equally could have just thrown the timing of the attack off.

Also interesting how few fighter, dive bomber and torpedo bomber aircraft the USN appeared to have on the date of teg Pearl Harbour attack.. Setting aside the very small wings at San Diego, the only potential reserves I see are the air groups attached to the Atlantic Fleet carriers (Wasp,.Hornet and Ranger).

Ah that destroyer division had a total of 8 x 3" /23 cal AA 2 on each DD, and 6-8 .50 Cal AA MG. the 4"/50 cal deck guns had a max elevation of 40 degrees. and a limited AA capability, using standard HE Common shells over open sights.

That Division and their tender Black Hawk were enroute from Borneo to Singapore, as per Admiral hart's war diary. they left on the afternoon of 9 December, max speed would have been 15 knots, as that was Black Hawk's max speed. They turned back after the loss of force Z. in this time line they may get to finish their voyage,

 

[Butchpfd]

First two observations....

Interesting note about the USN destroyer floatilla based on Borneo that was going to rendezvous with Force Z. If they had come further towqrds Singapore first, that would have added a significant AAA screen to the UK capital ships. It equally could have just thrown the timing of the attack off.

Also interesting how few fighter, dive bomber and torpedo bomber aircraft the USN appeared to have on the date of teg Pearl Harbour attack.. Setting aside the very small wings at San Diego, the only potential reserves I see are the air groups attached to the Atlantic Fleet carriers (Wasp,.Hornet and Ranger).

As I posted in another response;That destroyer division had a total of 8 x 3" /23 cal AA 2 on each DD, and 6-8 .50 Cal AA MG. the 4"/50 cal deck guns had a max elevation of 40 degrees. and a limited AA capability, using standard HE Common shells over open sights.

As to reinforcements, they are not there. Other then North Carolina Class BBs Antiaircraft cruisers and destroyers, the American Pez Dispenser for ships will really not kick in until mid 1942., Manpower is still at Great Lakes and San Diego Naval Training Centers. Most aircraft plants are still training up their second and 3rd shift work forces.
What their is is all their is. Moving USN Cruisers to Singapore or the DEI via Indian Ocean won't be efficient. There are no tenders, or ammunition ships. When Houston, Boise and Marblehead left the Philippines the 6" and 8 " ammunition on board was all they had. There was a limited amount of 5"/25 Cal ammunition onboard the AD Black Hawk , some repair parts can be in part done by the Asiatic Fleet auxillaries, but ammunition has to come from stocks at Pearl Harbor

 

[Ramontxo]

What hasn't been spoken of much by author yet is what logistical butterflies have taken place in Malaya, Burma, Singapore, India, Middle East, etc. In short, what has been pushed "East" that previously was tied up in Egypt, Mediterranean, Persian Gulf, etc.

Per the storyline and the additional units the author has provided for defence, it seems highly counterintuitive that additional ammunition, food, etc. will not only also have followed to the East. Further, that if they warganed an invasion, they would also have wargamed "How to sustain a defense given the units now in-theatre....then reinforce it as quickly as possible."

Given the importance of Singapore, I would contend that although in OTL the UK was accumulating assets for Operation Crusader (offensive to push the Germans back from current positions in Egypt and relieve Seige of Tobruk), in this TL, any delays caused to the Japanese offensive would invariably result in at least some significant reinforcements being pushed hard into Singapore, Penang, Rangoon, etc., at which point it becomes the Japanese who have the more complicated supply train than do the allies.

I'm a huge fan of this timeline and can't wait to see where the author takes it next... 🍻

And of course. If the British after Crusader are in an defensive mood Gazala would be a different battle

 

[Ramp-Rat]

@Belisarius II

Sir I must completely disagree with you, there was nothing ether IOTL or ITTL, that makes the fall of Malaya and Singapore inevitable. IOTL a combination of a number of factors came together that made the capture of Malaya and Singapore possible. This started with the inter war view that the only threat to Malaya and Singapore was was Naval, hence the construction of the Naval Base, and the emplacement of the big guns to defend it. All was basically well from the outbreak of the war in Europe, as the Japanese were considered to be occupied by their ongoing costly conflict in China, and the British who faced very little surface naval threat from the Germans, could if needed send a substantial fleet to Singapore. Remember up until the deployment of the Bismarck in 1941, the Germans didn’t have a single capital ship that could go toe to toe with any of their British adversaries. The fall of France and the entry of Italy into the war substantially changed things, both in Europe and the Far East. In Europe the availability of the French Atlantic ports meant that the German submarines had an easy route into the Atlantic, as they no longer needed to fight their way through the narrow gaps between Scotland and Iceland. In addition the availability of the French Atlantic ports meant that Germany Naval Raiders had alternative ports to retire too after a mission in to the Atlantic. Which meant that unlike before when the RN wasn’t able to say that they could prevent a German Naval raider from being able to get into the Atlantic, it stood very little chance of getting home again. But the requirement to provide increased coverage to the Atlantic, and the conflict in the Mediterranean, meant that the RN didn’t have the ships to spare to form a significant deterrent force to Singapore.

The situation in the Far East were significantly worsened by a combination of factors, the collapse of France and its occupation by the Germans, permitted the Japanese to steadily occupy more and more of FIC. This meant that the British now faced the possibility of a land invasion of Malaya, while the increased commitments of the RN in both the Atlantic and Mediterranean meant that there were no capital units to spare for the Far East. While the commitments to defend Britain against a possible German invasion and defend British interests in the Mediterranean against the Italians, meant that the Army had very little to spare to improve the defence of Malaya. Whilst the decision of the American President to force the Japanese to stop their invasion of China, without any consultation with Britain or the Free Dutch Governments, which given their present situation were obliged to go along with. And the failure of Winston preoccupied by events at home and in the Mediterranean, to address the situation in the Far East. Meant that the situation was left in a state of limbo, and that sensible measures to address the increasing threat were not taken. The military command structure that even in our time, with modern communications and transport technology, would be ridiculous, was left in place. Wavell whose principle consideration was always going to be India, had in addition the responsibility of of the rest of the Far East added to his already massive plate. And the civil administration in Malaya and Singapore, was along with the civilian population, who thought the singing “ There always be an England” while drinking cocktails at a Red Cross dinner, was a valuable contribution to the war effort. And was always prepared to accommodate the interests of the planters and businessmen of the colony, even when it went against the interests of the military. While the military commander, who was a brilliant staff officer, but afraid to upset the apple cart, and insist that serious preparations were made for what he knew was the inevitable invasion, continued to drift along without challenging ether his juniors or the civil administration.

Now ITTL, Winston has been forced to acknowledge the realities of the situation in 1941, there is absolutely no chance of retaining Hong Kong in the event of a Japanese invasion. Something that was well known and acknowledged by all of the members of the Committee for Imperial Defence. And that the vast expanse of the Far East and India couldn’t be commanded by just one man. The present Governor and civil administration of Malaya and Singapore, were definitely not up to the task, and the military commanders definitely needed shaking up. So reluctantly he decided that Hong Kong was to be stripped of much of its military, and allowed to fall to the Japanese if they decided to invade. He has also taken the advice of both his Colonial Secretary and the Chief of the Imperial General Staff, and agreed to the appointment of a new Governor, and the division of the Eastern military command, into two separate areas. One based in India with Burma as was traditionally included. And one based in Singapore, which includes Malaya, Hong Kong and Borneo. His appointment of a very experienced if somewhat controversial military commander Lord Gort, with the highly experienced if definitely despised, by the old guard RAF establishment, Park as his Air Commander, with the highly experienced in the area Percival as Gorts Chief of Staff and ground commander. Who have in concert with the new Governor, and much to the disgust and dismay of the military, civil and civilian local establishments, seriously shaken up the existing convenient cosy atmosphere. The Governor, Gort and Park have not only stuck a rocket under the colony, they have been prepared to sack or transfer, those that have been found wanting.

As two posts by our author have pointed out this has come a no considerably cost. A young man who thought he was going to sit out the war in comfort, surrounded by luxury and with his wife by his side. Has been forced to take his volunteer commitment seriously, while carrying on his important work with a local business. And now that the threat exceeds his value to the community in his normal job, he has been called up to serve full time. While in the air the realistic training has both exposed a potential leader and see him die in the space of minutes. It should always be remembered just how many young men lost their lives, learning how to fly, as apposed to in combat. The principle problem for the Japanese is that, every small improvement that the British make, requires them to expend significantly greater resources to counter it. And this given the resources available to the British, which are only going to increase, as Britain really gets into its stride, in what will be the third year of the war for them, but is the fifth year of the war for the Japanese. Who are coming under increasing sanctions, especially of the most vital resource of the war oil. The Japanese have a major problem with their plans for Malaya, they have just two weeks to start to induce the collapse of morale and the military civil administration that they were able to IOTL, were note they came very close to losing, or they have lost this campaign. If the British administration civil and military can as I believe they can, given the improvements made to date. All the Japanese will have succeeded in doing is get themselves trapped in another tar baby, the same as they are in China. And with the British holding Malaya and Singapore, while they should given the unpreparedness of the Americans in the Philippines be successful there. Their chances of success other than in Borneo, in the region to the south of Singapore are slim to none. I will say again there was nothing inevitable about the success of the Japanese in Malaya, it was a very close run thing IOTL, and ITTL will be incredibly hard to achieve.

RR.

 

[Parma]

The changes the British have made in Malaya may delay the inevitable, but it's still inevitable.

No it is not inevitable or was inevitable.
Please this is alternate history do not view history with your ''spectacles'' of today, if you can not leave your hintsight view at home than I think alternate history is not your cup of tea.
In hintsight events seems to be inevitable or ''logic'' or destined, but in reality things never are inevitable. Ohw this sounds a bit ying yangish.... 😄